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Louie:
5% Chance and 10% Want: Pikmin 3 came out not too long ago, Louie playing a memorable role in that game. If any Pikmin character is going to be included, I'd imagine Louie is top of the bundle when he is Olimar's accomplice and appears in the most relevant games. The captains who appear only in Pikmin 3 aren't going to get in, ever. Not to insinuate Louie has that good of a chance, it's actually on the absurdly low tier. Olimar represents Pikmin near perfectly. He uses the Pikmin as nits on the foe and abuses that fact, totally useless on his own. Louie doesn't add anything that I or I imagine Sakurai would find worth adding a second Pikmin rep.
Takamaru:
15% Chance: The character may be a sword fighter, but he does also use magic, so the easiest comparison is a combination of Marth and Zelda. That's fairly unique, but the magic does not negate the fact that another sword user is not going to feel that special, especially if Chrom gets in as a newcomer. Another character who similarly uses a sword and is far more popular in Japan according to Chrono is Roy, who also uses fire-type attacks.
The magic of Takamaru can be twisted to be interpreted quite vividly in Smash Bros, I've seen a moveset where he ate flaming swords and so on, but I doubt Sakurai would take that direction. Frankly I think this is a case of a rep that has a handful of interesting abilities that are exaggerated through the echoing chambers of the internet. He is acknowledged by Nintendo though, and has some popularity. No one can predict retro picks so Takamaru has as good a chance as any.
30% Want: There are way better retro picks out there than a samurai. Duck Hunt Dog, Balloon Fighter (sadly deconfirmed), Sheriff. Takamaru doesn't lend himself to that interesting of a moveset like all of those would. He's also not the least bit surprising. These picks have always, always been a surprise. I wouldn't hate this character but I'd be fairly apathetic to his inclusion. I hope Sakurai picks out reps who can make for as fascinating a moveset as Ice Climbers, ROB and Game&Watch. Especially after Wii Fit Trainer was all shock and no uniqueness, I hope it's something completely out of the blue that no one thought of but is immediately evident as genius. Takamaru doesn't fit that in my opinion.
Athena Cykes Prediction: 0.44%
Random low prediction for a fairly obscure character. I'm a fan of the series and I know she's liked but no one knows her outside the fans.
Nutty Noon Prediction: 15.5%
No clue.
Arino (Retro Game Challenge) x5
5% Chance and 10% Want: Pikmin 3 came out not too long ago, Louie playing a memorable role in that game. If any Pikmin character is going to be included, I'd imagine Louie is top of the bundle when he is Olimar's accomplice and appears in the most relevant games. The captains who appear only in Pikmin 3 aren't going to get in, ever. Not to insinuate Louie has that good of a chance, it's actually on the absurdly low tier. Olimar represents Pikmin near perfectly. He uses the Pikmin as nits on the foe and abuses that fact, totally useless on his own. Louie doesn't add anything that I or I imagine Sakurai would find worth adding a second Pikmin rep.
Takamaru:
15% Chance: The character may be a sword fighter, but he does also use magic, so the easiest comparison is a combination of Marth and Zelda. That's fairly unique, but the magic does not negate the fact that another sword user is not going to feel that special, especially if Chrom gets in as a newcomer. Another character who similarly uses a sword and is far more popular in Japan according to Chrono is Roy, who also uses fire-type attacks.
The magic of Takamaru can be twisted to be interpreted quite vividly in Smash Bros, I've seen a moveset where he ate flaming swords and so on, but I doubt Sakurai would take that direction. Frankly I think this is a case of a rep that has a handful of interesting abilities that are exaggerated through the echoing chambers of the internet. He is acknowledged by Nintendo though, and has some popularity. No one can predict retro picks so Takamaru has as good a chance as any.
30% Want: There are way better retro picks out there than a samurai. Duck Hunt Dog, Balloon Fighter (sadly deconfirmed), Sheriff. Takamaru doesn't lend himself to that interesting of a moveset like all of those would. He's also not the least bit surprising. These picks have always, always been a surprise. I wouldn't hate this character but I'd be fairly apathetic to his inclusion. I hope Sakurai picks out reps who can make for as fascinating a moveset as Ice Climbers, ROB and Game&Watch. Especially after Wii Fit Trainer was all shock and no uniqueness, I hope it's something completely out of the blue that no one thought of but is immediately evident as genius. Takamaru doesn't fit that in my opinion.
Athena Cykes Prediction: 0.44%
Random low prediction for a fairly obscure character. I'm a fan of the series and I know she's liked but no one knows her outside the fans.
Nutty Noon Prediction: 15.5%
No clue.
Arino (Retro Game Challenge) x5