Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[Louie G.]

MATTHEW:
Chance: 10%
Isaac will almost definitely get in first, but if Sakurai wants the most relevant protagonist, it would be Matthew.

Want: 30%
Not if he gets in Isaac's way.

Ninten Prediction: 4%
He's actually got a small shot.

Noms: STARFY x5

 

[McDuckletts]

Matthew
Chance: 9%
Even if he is more recent than Isaac, Isaac is still the more likely contender. Not only is he the face of his franchise, but he's already been an assist trophy in Brawl. Matthew isn't completely out of the question, he just doesn't have much of a chance. Maybe if Issac is in SSB4, then Matthew could be in 5. Maybe.
Want: 15%
Hey, I'm all up for having a new playable character from an unrepresented franchise. I've never played any Golden Sun games, but maybe if they put in a rep from that game, I might be interested.

Ninten prediction: 2.47%

Nomination: Banjo-Kazooie X5

 

[Groose]

Noms have been updated. I'll be in shortly to end things.

 

[BluePikmin11]

The days are ending normally, this is amazing. O.o
It's good everything is back to normal.

 

[LoneKonWolf]

The days are ending normally, this is amazing. O.o
It's good everything is back to normal.

hopefully,
as far as we know, in the next minute the whole site will go down and will be inaccessible for an entire day

 

[Erimir]

I guess it's fortunate that SmashBoards and RTC downtime coincided with Thanksgiving and finals and so forth. I only missed like three votes.

Matthew:
Golden Sun is not the most likely to get a rep. My model thinks based on sales and so forth that there's around a 50% chance of the series getting a rep. But I think that's a little optimistic because the series is not sure to get another sequel. It might, who knows, but it doesn't look good. (Actually, a Wii U sequel which increased the scope and upped the difficulty might not be a bad idea... Nintendo really could use some more quality RPGs. But they'd have to hit it out of the park and the same for X for it to help a lot.) They might want to add more new series to Smash, but so far we've only seen high-selling and ongoing new series added. Maybe they'll be filling out the roster with smaller series, but being both a small series and one with no indication that it will continue to get installments makes it less likely IMO.

While Matthew appeared in the more recent one, Isaac was in the first two games and in Brawl as an AT. He's pretty beat out among Golden Sun reps, IMO.

Matthew chances: 5%
I'd be pretty surprised to see Matthew instead of Isaac.

Matthew want: 72%
However, I'd actually rate him a little higher in want. Not because I like him better than Isaac. I don't care that much about one vs. the other in themselves. I'd like to see a Golden Sun rep. The reason I'd rate Matthew higher is the signal it would send about Golden Sun.

I think picking Matthew would suggest that Nintendo views Golden Sun as an ongoing series, while picking Isaac does not send such a message. Going with the more recent protagonist means they care about relevancy for the series, which only really matters if they intend to sell more of the series. Because Isaac would be more well-known and a more fitting representative, particularly if the series is finished, since he comes from the original, more critically acclaimed and higher selling games. Isaac might help them sell more of the original games if they get a 3DS Virtual Console release though.

Ninten prediction: 2%
I don't think people think a 3rd Earthbound rep is likely and assuming we do get one, I don't think they think Ninten is likely.

Nominations:
5x Pichu

 

[Groose]

Matthew: 10%
1) Take Jaytalk's excellent post.
2) Add in a bit more skepticism that we'll see a Golden Sun character.
3) Factor in requests and Isaac's overall importance to the franchise a bit more heavily.

Voila! Groose's rating in a nutshell. I'd give Isaac a 35%, for reference.

Matthew Want: 50%
Completely neutral. He seems pretty cool and has potential for uniqueness, but I know he'd only placate a fanbase that deserves to be satisfied. I want to check out this franchise that I somehow missed.

Ninten Prediction: 3.43%
Porky, Klaus, No Third Mother Rep, he's too much like Ness people will annihilate him.

Groose x5

Day Over​

​

​

Return of Groose​

 

[BluePikmin11]

At this point, I think we need only 20 or more nominations for Nintendog. Someone help me here!

 

[Groose]

Matthew (Golden Sun)
7.50% chance (Isaac: 52.48%)
33.36% want (Isaac: 71.60%)

Matthew... I am your father. I am wanted more by the fanbase. Don't join me, because I'm getting into Smash and you aren't! ...That's the message you guys are sending me here. As you can see from the comparison above, Matthew fared much more poorly than his father, Isaac. By the way... do you guys like it when I list some comparisons next to the character's results? I didn't use to do it because I thought it would devalue the results if the character at hand, but I'm now of the mindset that it's a nifty comparison to start the day.

Anyway, today we're rating Ninten. We already have Ness (Mother 2's protagonist) and Lucas (Mother 3's protagonist), so why not add Mother's protagonist? Please rate Ninten in chance and want.

Tomorrow...

Yeah. Your going to rate me. Please predict how I, the Great Groosenator of Grooseland, will fare in tomorrow's competition. Hint: If you go above 2%, you're delusional.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Ninten Chance: 8.5% Has a good chance of being planned as another semi-clone.
Ninten Want: 30% Even though I like Ninten, I would prefer Porky to be the next Mother rep.
Groose: 6.56% I expect overt favoritism from many people with it comes to the Groose.
Nominations:
x5 Nintendog.

 

[McDuckletts]

Ninten(do)
Chance: 0.2%
Nope, not gonna happen. Mother 1 is a really, really obscure game that only Mother fans really know about. Even then, I don't think anyone even cares about Mother 1.
Want: 0%

Groose prediction: 12.69%

Nom: B-K X5

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Ninten - 10%

Can't see him happening.

Want - 0%

Groose Prediction - 2%

x5 Count Bleck.

 

[Deleted member]

I like the comparisons and I think that they should be used.

While Groose has added and updated my section in the OP, I have decided that I will still continue to update my section in case anything has gone wrong. (ya know, as a backup of sorts)
So, Ninten has been added to the post.

Ninten
Chance: NinTen Percent (10%)
Personally, I think that he does have a chance. He was the first protagonist in the Mother series, thus coming before Ness and Lucas did. I think that having seniority puts him close to the levels of Porky and Masked Man, but Mother 1 wasn't that popular. His seniority is the only thing that is going for him as I find it to be a good factor. While people say that Mother is complete, one can argue that it isn't due to Ninten being absent to represent the first Mother game like Ness and Lucas do for their respective games.
That is where his positives end however. First off, as mentioned before, Mother 1 isn't a very popular game. It didn't do well in terms of sales and fans regard it as the worst game in the series. One preventing factor is definitely his design as well; it just screams Ness. While Ninten came before Ness, people would definitely confuse Ninten with Ness. While Ninten does have differences (namely a scarf and no backpack), you can't deny that he looks like Ness. Lastly, Mother doesn't really need a new character and the characters that do come up for Smash are Porky (he can bridge Mother 2 and 3), Masked Man (highly popular character), and Kumatora (apparently Japan's most wanted Mother character).
With a lack of noise, possible confusion, and relative unpopularity of Mother 1, I don't think that Ninten will be playable. He has seniority over possible candidates, but that's all he has going for him.

Want: NinTen Percent (10%)
I kept on thinking about if I really wanted him. He can complete the Mother series' representation in Smash, but I find Porky to be more interesting. He can use unrepresented moves like PK Beam, but I think that he will have identical specials from Ness and Lucas. It mostly comes from his design… it's just flat-out uninteresting. While he would give Mother 1 representation, it's not really needed. I'm fine with just Ness. (and Lucas, but Ness is all I need for Mother representation)

Groose Prediction: .52%
The Groose won't be loose.

Nominations: Decloned Ganondorf 5x

 

[Louie G.]

NINTEN

Chance: 5%
I feel that Ninten would be an easy semi-clone with a decent shot. Consider him a possibility.

Want: 10%
I am slowly warming up to the idea of a Star-Fox-type Mother trio, but as of now, I'm still slowly warming up to Lucas.

Groose Prediction: 2%
I didn't go above.

Noms:

 

[BluePikmin11]

@Louie G. You clever doosh.

 

[Sid-cada]

Ninten

Prediction - 0.02% - If we get Ninten, Sakurai is truly desperate for a clone for roster filler. While not completely ineligible, he might as well be. Other series could use the (semi-)clone first, and I have a feeling those will be better received than Ninten.

Want - 0.75% - Somewhere between Owain and Sandbag. At least this will complete the Mother trilogy, not that I think it needs to in order to be complete. Still, other characters have my interest in (semi-)clones, and Porky has my interest as a Mother character.


Most narcissistic nomination ever - 0.15% - Somewhere between Cole and Omastar seems appropriate, for some reason.

Nominations
Hades X3
Dark Matter X2

 

[jaytalks]

I think picking Matthew would suggest that Nintendo views Golden Sun as an ongoing series, while picking Isaac does not send such a message. Going with the more recent protagonist means they care about relevancy for the series, which only really matters if they intend to sell more of the series. Because Isaac would be more well-known and a more fitting representative, particularly if the series is finished, since he comes from the original, more critically acclaimed and higher selling games. Isaac might help them sell more of the original games if they get a 3DS Virtual Console release though.

This.

By the way... do you guys like it when I list some comparisons next to the character's results? I didn't use to do it because I thought it would devalue the results if the character at hand, but I'm now of the mindset that it's a nifty comparison to start the day./quote]

I would use comparisons from characters from the same series with the same type of appeal. I check it anyway, so it would be nice if it was streamlined.

Ninten
Chances: 0.001
Japan only. Mother is already a well represented series. Least popular game in the franchise. Various visual similarities to Ness.
Want: 0%
No need. no desire.

Groose - I'm hoping Groose beats the odds and gets at least 3%, but I would say it's .77%

Nominations:
Micaiah x 5[/quote]

 

[Erimir]

Ninten

Popularity: Who? Nintendo is a character?

Relevancy: Huh?

Design: Another clone in the Ness-Lucas series, except he looks just like Ness.

Competition: Oh hey, you could use Porky or Kumatora or Claus, and you'd be adding more unique characters from more popular games in the series. In the case of Porky, one who's also not Japan-only.

Model: My model thinks an Earthbound cut is way more likely than an Earthbound addition. I'd have to agree, unfortunately.

Ninten chances: 0.1%
I don't think Earthbound is getting a 3rd slot, and if it does, I don't think it's going to Ninten, who will be yet another Ness clone. If Sakurai feels that he needs to fill out the roster and decides to add a clone, he'd probably clone someone who wasn't already cloned or bring back a cut veteran. A few more likely clone possibilities: Bowser Jr, Black Shadow, Dr Mario, Roy, Toon Zelda, Dixie Kong...

Ninten want: 5%
My want is based only on his addition likely indicating news for the Earthbound series. A sequel... Remakes (from what I hear, Mother 1 could use some major tuning)? Even just a Western release for Mother 1 and 3 would be worthwhile. Other than that... Earthbound has plenty enough representation.

Groose prediction: 0.9%
Seems likely to attract some support, but I'm guessing not much.

Nominations:
Pichu x5

 

[NickerBocker]

Ninten
Chance: 0.01%
Want: 0%
Looking so similar to Ness that people mistake him for Ness, and although its not canon, Ness' father. So no thanks.

Groose: 2.6%
Someone is gonna rate him at 100 hahahahah

Om nom noms
Goe... wait, hes pretty close, ill just let it be.

DLC characters x5

 

[Gunla]

Are we back again?

NintenNOPE.

Pros!
+Ness not revealed
Cons!
-Ness=Dead Chances
-THEY LOOK THE SAME!
-Japan Only

Overall... 'Tis a big nope. .4%

Want: How about NO. 0%

Groose the Loose

I'm giving 2.01%- Call me delusional. He's getting 100% want.

Nominating...
Extensive Alternate Costumes X5

 

[PK_Wonder]

Ninten - 0.2%
predict - 2%

Ryu of Street Fighter x5

 

[Toxicroaker]

Ninten(do): 1.03%
Want: 50% Better than Masked Man/Clause or Porky.

Groose: 1.01%

x5 Bowser Jr./Shadow Mario

 

[XenothiumX]

Ninten
Likelihood: 1%

Want: 5%

Groose
Prediction: 1%

Nominations:
Krystal x5

 

[FalKoopa]

Ninten:
Likelihood: 1%
Probably the least likely of the possible characters. He's Japan-only, looks really similar to Ness, and Porky, Masked Man & Kumatora are all above him.

Want: 0%
Porky please.

Groose prediction: 1.09%
The current day divided by 100.

Tingle x 5

 

[DarkKry4]

Ninten

Chance - 0%
his only chance would be an alternate costume......

Want - 0%
Ness is enough.

Groose - 1.5%

x5 Tiny Kong

 

[YoshiandToad]

Ninten
Chance: 12%
I honestly have no idea at all to be honest. Ninten's inclusion would wrap up Mother's protagonists nicely, but he's one of the most redundant characters you could possibly add at this point. That said, Sakurai's not against planning redundant characters; looking at Toon Sheik in particular here.

Want: 3%
I never really wanted Lucas(and I still don't), so a THIRD PSI user is right out. If I have to have a third Mother rep Porky is a far better choice. He's in both Mother 2/Earthbound AND Mother 3, and more importantly he's not another psychic child who will inevitably steal moves from his teammates.

The fact he looks exactly like Ness but with a different fringe, no backpack and a bandanna makes him more Alt outfit worthy than playable worthy.

Groose: 2.5%
I'm only slightly delusional.

Nominations:
Tails X 5

 

[Smasher 101]

Ninten's chances: 1%
Want: 50% - I am indifferent to pretty much any Mother newcomer.

Groose prediction: 1%

Prince Sable x5

 

[colder_than_ice]

Ninten
Chance: 0% - The Mother franchise has not had a new game in seven years, it doesn't need three identical characters.
Want: 0% - A complete waste of space.

Groose prediction: 1.3

Nominations: Eevee x5

 

[Zhadgon]

Character
Ninten
Chance: 1.01% Ehhhhhh... ehhhhhh... and more ehhhhhh...
Want: 1.01% Not another psychic kid, I have enough with three Space Animals in the roster, I don't need or want three Psychic Kids.

Prediction
Groose: 3.33%

Nomination
Travis Touchdown x 5


.n_n.

 

[LoneKonWolf]

Nintendo ten - 0.05%
he has nothing, he's japan only, he's obscure, along with his future games protagonist's are actually in smash, along with the mother series dead, and even then porky and masked man are both more likely and popular, the little guy has no chance what so ever,
want - 1%
I actually want a new mother character, but for the love of Nayru, do not make it ninten,
Groose - 1.01%
if ghirahim got a low score, Groose would probably barley make it past one percent, though I do predict over a 70% want, because of his lovable quotes and our lovable host
Nominations:
dark pitX1
RoyX4

 

[loganhogan]

Ninten
1% He could be a palette for Ness can't see why they would get him in other than to replace Ness.
1% want

x5 Tiny Kong

 

[Starcutter]

ninten: 5% if mother 1 is apparently more iconic in japan, then why not him?

Want: 0% ness plz

Groose:1.7%

noms:
eevee x5

 

[Deleted member]

Wait, who won the 5 extra nominations?

 

[LoneKonWolf]

Wait, who won the 5 extra nominations?

I don't know, maybe he forgot. . .
although, seeing how Groose is absent I guess I'll check it out and see who won, give me a few minutes . . .
Edit: checked it out, and the winner of the extra five is Colder_than_ice! for being the closest to it. he wins an extra five nominations

 

[Aqua Rock X]

Ninten

Chance: 1% - And that's only if he comes as an easy Ness clone. Otherwise I don't see it happening myself.

Want: 1% - Not really interested.

Groose Prediction: 10% - Not many are aware of the Groose's awesomeness.

Nominations:
Nintendog x5

 

[Groose]

Overtime today. Update will be in a few hours instead. Sorry!

 

[LoneKonWolf]

Overtime today. Update will be in a few hours instead. Sorry!

ah don't worry mate, as long as we don't repeat klonoa or Bomberman, I think everyone will be fine

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

NINTENDOOM: 0.1%
Want: 0%

GROOSE: 5%

 

[Spears In Smash Bros.]

Ninten: 1.2%
Too similar in appearance to Ness, even with the Kamen Rider scarf that he doesn't actually wear. Plus, as someone once told me, "The only unique attacks that Ninten has are asthma attacks."

Want: 30%
Again, don't really want another Mother character if he plays similarly to Ness and Lucas.

Groose: 1.36%

Nominate:
Quote x5

 

[Glaciacott]

Yes! I get time to do mine

Ninten
Chance - 0.1%
Don't see it. There's many better options for both Mother characters and characters overall, there's just no chance for the little guy unless for some reason Nintendo wants to port the original Mother, which would make no sense since the one people are clamoring for is Mother 3.

Want - 0%
Porky or bust.

Prediction
Groose - 4.3%
People underestimate his awesome. After all, Zelda needs its representatives for the Trifoce of Courage, Triforce of Wisdom, Triforce of Power and Triforce of Groose.