Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[κomıc]

Saki
Chance- 40%- Interesting how Sakurai made note of how he fits in the fight in that blog post. If it wasn't that he was an assist trophy, people would have believed him to be playable. But maybe that goes for other AT, I guess?

Want- 100% - I, like many others in the US, downloaded the game the year it came out on the VC. I enjoyed the game so much, I wanted a sequel and was pleased to hear that there was one in the works for Wii. To have seen him in a blog post on the Dojo website made me excited until I found out that he would just be an AT. Anyhow, I really like Saki and hope that he'll be playable. Maybe his son Isa?

Medusa prediction - 30%

Nominations:
Rayman x86
Bomberman x139

 

[XenothiumX]

Obviously. I'm talking about the general public. Nintendo would like people to buy the game who aren't necessarily fanatics who can identify most of the characters nominated on this board. I've played basically every Metroid game. But I'm also not the only person they need to buy this game, so I'm not expecting Metroid to get way more stuff than in the past.

I'm sure the general public of America had no idea who Marth and Roy were prior to Melee.

series represented in Brawl (and known to be in Smash 4) has multiple times as many sales as Sin and Punishment's two games. We'd be hitting a significant new low. Game sales show are in part a demonstration of the popularity of the character (although obviously character popularity varies, sales give an idea for where the ceiling and floor might be), how many people are familiar with them, and how much sales they can drive. So they obviously matter.

I find it hard to believe Wii Fit's 40+ million in sales (putting it as one of the highest selling series of all time on all platforms) or Animal Crossing's 20+ million had nothing to do with them both getting in the game, for example. But it's just one factor of many, of course. Some series with relatively lower sales have stronger fan bases than others. And there are the character design factors as well (uniqueness, how they fit in, how interesting they are, etc.). And series representation matters for series that already have reps. Once you've already completed the main cast, sales become a lot less important (although certainly nobody would be surprised if Mario got another slot).

So I didn't base my opinion purely on sales. It's just one factor. But the lower or higher the sales, the more I'm going to weight it. And with how low S&P's sales are, it has to drag him down significantly more than some of the other characters we've discussed. But the fact that he was an AT and Sakurai comments push him up. But not to the status of toss up or likely, in my book.
]He's not an exception yet.

Hmmmmm... yes, I agree to an extent, but the inclusion of a playable character boosts their popularity. If they put Saki in the roster and a New S&P never comes out it will still give birth to many fans who will love him. His inclusion is not going to make Super Smash Brothers any worse of game.

It seems to me that among lower selling series, Earthbound, Golden Sun, Punch-Out and Xenoblade definitely all have stronger fan bases. Additionally, Xenoblade is getting a sequel and Punch-Out has a good chance of doing so as well considering how well the Wii game sold.

This is a really interesting point you bring up here and I was considering this thought too... actually on second thought... I don't know... maybe my thoughts have taken a different approach, but anyways hear me out. If we were to line up Shulk, Issac, Saki, and Cloud Strife ( yeah I know he's not a Nintendo character ) next to each other you would notice a pattern of similarity, that they are all blonde haired males who use swords! But Saki's a girl...HAHAHA!!! I get the joke! Anyways, What makes one character stand out from the other? It seems that you are pointing out that there might be a competition among them for the spot of the "blonde haired boy with the sword" for the next smash. Who gets it? Why the most popular one of course! If Shulk's game is as popular as you say then he is the greatest threat to Saki and Issac. But on the other hand he has not appeared in smash. Now, I did not know of Shulk until I signed up for Smashboards, so maybe I have been living under a rock for the past couple of years. Why can't Shulk, Isaac, and Saki all make it? Why...why not! maybe they all might make it, maybe two of the three, and maybe even none.

Anyway, I didn't **** all over Saki and say he has no chance. 20% is decent.
I don't think mutating would be a big part of his move set. Maybe a Final Smash? Anyway, I didn't say he didn't have move set potential, I said it wasn't ginormous move set potential. He has enough to work with to have a move set without much trouble. But compared to Link there's really no comparison as to who truly has a cornucopia of options.
I didn't say that they didn't boost his chances. In fact, I explicitly said they did. I just was pointing out that the interpretation isn't unambiguously positive and there's a much more negative interpretation that's also very plausible. You should keep that in mind when considering how much to weigh those statements, instead of assuming that Sakurai must have only meant the most charitable interpretation.

But if he hadn't appeared as an AT, Saki would be relegated to the same level of attention that games/series like The Last Story or Chibi-Robo are getting. It definitely pushes him up way above them.

I have noticed something about this game. You see back in the early days of Rate Their Chances everybody had more of a "happy-go-lucky" attitude giving more generous scores. Yes, I know we rated everybody's favorite and most likely characters right off the bat, but there were a few I question. It seems that people's methods and approaches of rating characters has changed, almost like people are becoming more experienced at rating (and this is a very good reason we can do re-votes). The character I question the most is Dixie Kong. Now lets change the perspective on things. If I were to put Dixie Kong and Saki side by side and ask you "between these two characters who has a better chance of making it into this game?" you would have to say Dixie Kong because you gave her a score of 36.5% compared to Saki's score of 20%. Maybe you still stand by that opinion. Now look, I gave Saki a score of 85%. If Saki got into the ratings earlier in the game that number might not have been completely absurd.

 

[FalKoopa]

Saki

Likelihood: 30%
He is popular, was an assist trophy in Brawl, and his game released internationally (albeit on the VC)

Want: 60%
He is cool; my favourite of the Brawl assist trophies.

Medusa prediction: 30%

Noms: Isaac x 5

 

[Erimir]

I'm sure the general public of America had no idea who Marth and Roy were prior to Melee.

I didn't make a statement specific to America. Marth was more well-known in Japan than Saki is. Roy was from an upcoming game, so obviously he couldn't have been known. But his series was certainly more well-known.

Hmmmmm... yes, I agree to an extent, but the inclusion of a playable character boosts their popularity. If they put Saki in the roster and a New S&P never comes out it will still give birth to many fans who will love him.

Well, I did say that if they're planning another S&P game that would help. I'm not really sure what your point is. Sakurai has said he might like to use the occasion to revive a series. But I'm not sure that a series that got an installment in 2010 is one that would be seen in that way.

His inclusion is not going to make Super Smash Brothers any worse of game.

I never said it would.

I mean, I'd prefer some other characters, so in the sense maybe. You can't really argue that I wouldn't be happier getting my more favorite characters though. Although there's no guarantee that Saki would be "taking" the place of one of my favorites rather than some other character I like less or don't care about.

It seems that you are pointing out that there might be a competition among them for the spot of the "blonde haired boy with the sword" for the next smash. Who gets it? Why the most popular one of course! If Shulk's game is as popular as you say then he is the greatest threat to Saki and Issac. But on the other hand he has not appeared in smash. Now, I did not know of Shulk until I signed up for Smashboards, so maybe I have been living under a rock for the past couple of years. Why can't Shulk, Isaac, and Saki all make it? Why...why not! maybe they all might make it, maybe two of the three, and maybe even none.

I didn't say they were all competing for the same slot. But the fact is that we're not going to see 20 newcomers (if you ask me), so no, not everyone can get in.

Now, those particular three could all make it. But I do see the addition of similar characters as taking away from their chances. When I talk about competition I'm not necessarily saying they're mutually exclusive cases and I never said they were in this case.

If I were to put Dixie Kong and Saki side by side and ask you "between these two characters who has a better chance of making it into this game?" you would have to say Dixie Kong because you gave her a score of 36.5% compared to Saki's score of 20%. Maybe you still stand by that opinion.

I do stand by it. At least their relative positions. I might give her a lower score if we rated again since I've thought more in depth about her competition, but I'd still rate her as more likely than Saki. As I've thought about it more I probably want to rate most of them lower. And to be honest, the course of this discussion has made me want to rate Saki even lower than I did. But I'm going to stick with 20% for now because I don't wanna keep editing it. And you will note that my score for her is significantly lower than the average (and that's true for most of the characters we've rated).

I see a new Donkey Kong rep as very, very likely. It's a popular series with the fourth highest sales (about 70 million*) that continues to be relevant and has a big title coming up... and only two reps. A significant amount of that score is accounting for the possibility that Dixie gets in instead of K Rool (you can see my reasoning laid out explicitly and mathematically, if you recall). The rest accounts for the possibility that Donkey Kong, given its high sales which put it up there with Legend of Zelda, might get four character slots just like Mario, Zelda and Pokemon did in the last game.

*For reference, it's about 133 Donkey Kong games sold for each copy of a Sin and Punishment game.

Now look, I gave Saki a score of 85%. If Saki got into the ratings earlier in the game that number might not have been completely absurd.

You haven't been paying attention. You don't seem to recall that I was calling people out for high scores from the beginning and pointing out the mathematical limitations of the expected roster size vs. the amount of % you can dish out to all these characters. I still would've said that was too high.

 

[SmashShadow]

I'm sure the general public of America had no idea who Marth and Roy were prior to Melee.
Hmmmmm... yes, I agree to an extent, but the inclusion of a playable character boosts their popularity. If they put Saki in the roster and a New S&P never comes out it will still give birth to many fans who will love him. His inclusion is not going to make Super Smash Brothers any worse of game.

Prior to Melee Fire Emblem was a series with 5 games and came out about every 2 years giving it many more games in its series and prominence when compared S&P has. Even though it was Japan only, it had a decently big fanbase there, definitely bigger than S&P. Of course more fans will come from him being put into smash. The same could be said for any character from any game put into smash. It's not an argument that can be used solely in Saki's favor. It's not an argument of whether or not he will make smash worse because he won't. It's an argument of does he deserve to get in over the competition.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Saki: 15%

He's got a decent shot but Sin and Punishment pales in comparison to many other new series in terms of sales and popularity.

Want: 50%

He'd be okay. But I want two other blond haired new series protagonists more.


Medusa Prediction: 7%

Nominations:
Sonic x3
Snake x2

 

[XenothiumX]

Prior to Melee Fire Emblem was a series with 5 games and came out about every 2 years giving it many more games in its series and prominence when compared S&P has. Even though it was Japan only, it had a decently big fanbase there, definitely bigger than S&P. Of course more fans will come from him being put into smash. The same could be said for any character from any game put into smash. It's not an argument that can be used solely in Saki's favor. It's not an argument of whether or not he will make smash worse because he won't. It's an argument of does he deserve to get in over the competition.

well then, that goes back to Sakurai's comment of him having absolutely no problem fitting in. If someone's going to tell me that he meant that as an assist trophy, then the vicious cycle begins anew.

 

[Groose]

Saki (Sin & Punishment)​

39.34% chance​

54.15% want​

​

It's been a long time since a newcomer broke 50% in want percentage; Saki did it with ease. She He also managed an impressive 39.34% chance, which lands him in lucky slot number 13. It's not as good as Saki did on many a Rate Their Chances game in years past, but he still performed admirably.​

​

Another character whose glory has faded enters the arena today. She is Medusa (Kid Icarus), and she is determined to lay waste to the battlefield. Please leave your chance and want on Medusa today.​

​

A star walks into the competition tomorrow; I mean this quite literally. Please predict how people will rate Starfy in tomorrow's game. Doing so can earn you extra nominations, like those won by Sid-Cada. Enjoy the extra five.​

​

Finally, it is my pleasure to announce that Bowser Jr. has once again been added to the nominations list.​

 

[SpaceJell0]

Medusa: 5% I see other characters from Uprising entering first before her :/
Want: 20% I mean I guess she'd be cool, but I'd need to see how she attacks first

Starfy: YESSS! My nominations finally came through! Anyways Prediction: 50% Some people will be blissfully ignorant of Starfy's potential, which is a shame

Nominations: x5 Chibi-Robo

 

[ZecaOMestre]

Medusa

Likelihood: 10% - If we get another Kid Icarus, rep, it would be Palutena and I think it's very unlikely for us to get two KI reps since Sakurai don't like to over-represent his own franchises and seeing how long it took for him to put another Kirby rep in the game.

Want: 20% - I think she would be taking an unnecessary spot in the roster

Starfy: 43%

Nominations:
Blaziken x3
Primid x2

 

[Opossum]

Medusa time!

Likelihood: 10%

I can only see her as a last minute semi-clone...

Want: 10%
I'd much rather have Palutena

Predicting a 38% for Starfy

Nominating Falco x5

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Medusa:

Chance: 9%
Sakurai is against over-exposing his own games, so I have a certain worry that Palutena won't make it in, let alone Medusa. Heroes tend to have priority over villains, and as such Palutena has priority here; and while Palutena sits as our second highest chance I personally think she's lower than she was given by the board; and even if she does get in Medusa is fairly low chance because of hero priority and Sakurai's self depreciation when it comes to roster slots.

Want: 30%
I'd be happy if she was in, but I have no serious wish for her either. Palutena's the priority in my eyes, and if Medusa got in it'd be a nice bonus.


Starfy: 60%
Pii Pii!!! He's cute, and a lot of people tend to think that's an instant bonus, his games are fun, and he's a cool addition who I really wanted in brawl. I may be biased by that, but I imagine plenty of other people will feel that way too, and support him thus.


Slime*5
(Goo are you trying to fool Gr-ooze? That's not a Medusa Ball! That's just some Slurp-ent Lady!)

 

[PK_Wonder]

Medusa turned out to be pretty insignificant in Uprising, but has just enough significance due to being the main villain of the original, retro title to not be thrown out completely. 12%

predict Starfy 29.5%

nominate Ryu x5

 

[Good Guy Giygas]

Medusa
Likelihood: 8% I doubt she'll get in over Palutena (who's almost a shoe-in), and I seriously doubt Kid Icarus will get three reps.
Want: 10% I don't really know much about her character, but she looks interesting. However, I would much rather have Palutena.

Starfy: 20%

Nominations:
Snake x5

 

[shinhed-echi]

To tell you the truth, I don't even think Palutena is as certain as people say, putting her in every roster. That doesn't mean I woulnd't like her inclusion, however. :3

But... MEDUSA

Chance: 25%
If we flipped a coin, won, and then flipped a coin again, and won, that's probably how likely Medusa is.
Sakurai doesn't want to overrepresent series of his own. (Then again, Kid Icarus was not made by him, but he did contribute to the popularity of its cast, so in a way, he rebooted the franchise as his own)
With just 3 games, only one of them being SUPER popular (uprising)... why focus on another character when there are OTHER, MAIN characters that also have 3 games and have not appeared in SSB in any way?

But my 25% comes from the fact that Sakurai redefined this character, so he probably knows her like the back of his hand, and would EASILY translate her into SSB4.


Want: 40%
I used to have her in my list, but she dropped considerable ammount of spaces. I prefer Palutena over her now, but Medusa would kind of be the "Wolf" factor. Not too happy at first, but warmed up immediately after his inclusion.
Except she gets bonus points for being a female villain, which the roster lacks.

x5 Mike

 

[SchAlternate]

Medusa
Likelihood: 10% - I feel Palutena would be more likely, to be honest.
Want: 15% - It'd be cool to have a female villain (if Mewtwo doesn't count), but... nah, I'm still rooting for Palutena.

Starfy
Prediction: 50% - As likely to appear in the next game as Yoshi (IMO), but with several people ignoring his true potential.

Nominations:
Banjo & Kazooie x100
Lip x4
Genesect x1

 

[Gam3rALO]

Medusa
Chance: 5%
A new KI rep is kind of likely. With new KI games that came out recently, I am pretty sure KI will get a new rep. However, Palutena will be the one who will most likely get that spot.

Want: 2%
I would rather have Palutena a lot more.

Prediction for Starfy: 27.88%
Im really not sure.

Nominations:
Sylveon x5

 

[Hippopotasauce]

Likelihood: 10%
Want: 2%

Starfy: 41%

Wonder-Eyes x5

 

[Deleted member]

Medusa
Prediction: 7%
Her chances aren't so good. If Kid Icarus were to get a second rep, it would be Palutena. While Medusa was the villain of the first Kid Icarus game, she wasn't the main villain of Uprising which hurts her chances in my eyes. If anything, she will get a Trophy or Sticker, but as for a spot on the roster? I don't see it happening unless it's a last minute addition and even then I highly doubt Kid Icarus will get 3 reps.
Want: 5%
I don't hate Medusa but I don't really want her.
Starfy: 58.3%
Starfy will be rated pretty high by some, in the middle by others, and low by doubters. I definitely think that Starfy has some potential to be a fighter.
Nominations: Sonic 5x

 

[Starcutter]

Medusa: 25%

want: 50%

Starfy: 47.3%

Noms:
Kamek x5

 

[SmashShadow]

Medusa: 21%
Arguably the second most important character in the series. Though she was pretty insignificant in Uprising. Has competition from Palutena, and Hades.
Want: 40%
She's okay but I'd rather see a second protagonist before we start adding in the antagonist.

Starfy: 28%

5x Impa

 

[DukeofShorts]

Medusa chance: 13%
A series with two games shouldn't have two reps.

Medusa want: 4%
For the same reason as above.

Stafy prediction: 34%

Anthony Higgs x5

 

[AfricanSanta]

Medusa-
Chance- 10%- I doubt Kid Icarus will get 3 reps.
Want- 5%- I'd rather have Palutena. Even on the villain side of things, I'd rather have Hades.

Starfy Prediction- 51%

Nominations:
Genesect x3
Mallo x2

 

[BlitznBurst]

Chances: 30%. Not terribly likely, but has an alright chance.

Want: 50%. Meh

Starfy prediction: 30%.

Skull Kid X5

 

[Starbound]

Medusa: 15%
If there's another Kid Icarus character, it's most likely going to be Palutena. Medusa could be a Palutena semi clone though.

Want: 35%
Disappointing it's not Palutena, but more Uprising characters will be welcomed with my open arms.

 

[Ephecus]

Medusa

Chance: 35 %
It isn't very likely for the Kid Icarus franchise to get a new rep at all, but if it gets one Medusa is one of the most likely to get that spot.

Want: 90 %
She'd be one of my most welcomed additions. I really like what they did with her design in KI:U. Moveset-wise she would have much to draw from. I'd take her over Palutena anytime.

Starfy: 44 %
He was an assist-trophy in Brawl and is pretty popular.

Nominations:
5x Robin

 

[NickerBocker]

Medusa: 17%
The way I see it is KI gets another rep, and if its not Palutena then its Medusa. Low chance because Palutena is more likely IMO. If KI gets 3 reps, shes very likely.

Want: 70%
Loved KI Uprising and I would like to see her make an appearance, although not as much as Palutena.

Starfy: 26.4%

Noms:
Rayman x3
Skull kid x2

 

[YoshiandToad]

Medusa

Chance: 8%Kid Icarus is unlikely to get three reps, and if it comes down to two I think everyone is in agreement to who the second one is. It's not Medusa.

Want: 30%
I do want more villains in Smash, and Medusa does a decent job of representing the Kid Icarus' villain side.


Starfy Prediction: I have absolutely no idea what he's like; I'm British, we are deemed unworthy to play his games. He seems to have a cult following in Japan, and he was popular enough to be an Assist Trophy so....40%

Nominations:
Kamek X 3
Meowth X 2

 

[Smasher 101]

Medusa's chances: 5%
Want: 30% - Not a bad choice but I'd still rather have Palutena.

Starfy: 60%

Samurai Goroh x5 (soon...)

 

[Sabrewulf238]

Medusa chance - 20%

Said how I felt about her yesterday but it can all be summed up with: Palutena

Want - 40%

She would be a cool addition but I won't lose sleep over her.

Starfy - 46%

Has a fair shot but he will probably be underestimated by many.

Noms:
Chibi robo x2
Robin x2
Isaac x1

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

Medusa: 5%
Want: 20%
Starfy: 55%
Nominate:
Ridley x 3
Lucas x 2

 

[Erimir]

Medusa

Popularity: Seems to have dropped off a bit in favor of Palutena. She seems more popular in the West. Japan seems to pretty much just want Palutena, while here there's still a significant minority who wants Medusa.

Relevance: She's the main villain in the first game, and a secondary villain in Uprising. That still puts her as more relevant than the characters who were created for Uprising IMO though.

Design: She has a weapon and projectiles and the snakes on her head and obviously the whole turning people to stone thing. Shouldn't be too hard to come up with a move set.

Roster and Competition: Well, I think Kid Icarus has at most one slot available. And that slot is most likely to go to Palutena, who appeared in all three games. Heroes are favored over villains, it seems. See: Luigi getting in before Bowser, Zelda getting in before Ganondorf, Falco before Wolf, and the other series that have multiple reps but no villains (DK, Earthbound, FE, Metroid). I've changed my mind somewhat since we first rated Palutena. I now think KI getting another rep is more likely, but I also more heavily favor Palutena. I also think Medusa is the second most likely rep. Dark Pit might be important and a favorite of Sakurai's, but the clone aspect hurts him a lot. I can't see Sakurai putting in two copies of Pit rather than Palutena or Medusa.

Medusa chances: 4%
She has much better chances than other Kid Icarus reps, but I think Palutena is the very obvious second choice. If it were not for Uprising, I probably would reverse it since Palutena doesn't do much herself in the first two games. But she's active and has move set potential from Uprising and plenty of personality that combined with her previous role makes her the obvious choice for the second rep.

Medusa want: 50%
I wouldn't care much either way if it were Palutena vs. Medusa. Palutena sounds better tho I think.

Starfy prediction: 37%
Seeing how well Saki did makes me think Starfy will do somewhat similar. They were both ATs, both originally Japan-only. Saki has some aspects over Starfy, but Starfy also has more games and such.

Nominations:
5x Mike Jones

A series with two games shouldn't have two reps.

Kid Icarus has three games, actually...

 

[Sid-cada]

Medusa

Chance - 13% - Medusa's definitely an interesting choice. She is both classic and iconic to the series, and Uprising seemed to breathe new life into her. However, given Sakurai's treatment of her, I wonder how much he actually cares for or likes Medusa. The fandom mostly seems to have flocked over to Palutena, and the fact that she is overshadowed by Hades, seems to bring her down a lot. She has the potential to make a very interesting move set, but that's about it.

Want - 60% - If I had my dream way of representing Kid Icarus, we would have Pit, Palutena, Medusa, and Viridi, added in that order. My heart goes out to Palutena, but still doesn't mean that there isn't room for the Underworld Army. I'm torn between Hades and Medusa, but I have a slight preference towards Medusa, though it's not anything that can approach Palutena's level.


Starfy Prediction - 55% - He's not outstanding, but he is definitely viable. I'll play it risky this time and say that more people have positive things to say than negative.

Nominations
Chibi-Robo X3
Anna X1
Donbe and Hikari X1

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Likly hood 10%
True most likely villain but paluntia is more likly and the meta knight/king ddd was an acceptional since they are both wanted

Want 0%
I'm not kidding

 

[Primid]

MEDUSA

Likelihood: 10% Palutena is the go-to Kid Icarus rep and I'm confident that she'll join the roster. Kid Icarus most likely won't get a third rep and Medusa will be left behind.
Want: 25% She'd be pretty interesting, but if she gets in over Palutena, I might be a little upset.

Nominations: Porky x5

 

[Xenigma]

Medusa - 5%
So I'm of the belief that Kid Icarus hasn't really earned a second character yet, so for me even Palutena is a relatively low rating compared to the norm here. By extension, the villains fare pretty poorly in my eyes, and considering Medusa wasn't even the big bad of KI:U, I have some difficulty seeing her as a likely pick for Smash. At the very least she is the classic antagonist of the series, so she seems plausible enough, but again, not sure the series is so successful to deserve two characters, and if that does happen, I expect the very popular Palutena will prevail.
Want - 0% - No real interest, sorry.

Starfy - 45%
One of the last characters that is very viable for inclusion (possibly the last?). Will get a somewhat inflated rating.

Nominations
Sonic x5

 

[jaytalks]

Game sales show are in part a demonstration of the popularity of the character (although obviously character popularity varies, sales give an idea for where the ceiling and floor might be), how many people are familiar with them, and how much sales they can drive. So they obviously matter.

I find it hard to believe Wii Fit's 40+ million in sales (putting it as one of the highest selling series of all time on all platforms) or Animal Crossing's 20+ million had nothing to do with them both getting in the game, for example. But it's just one factor of many, of course. Some series with relatively lower sales have stronger fan bases than others. And there are the character design factors as well (uniqueness, how they fit in, how interesting they are, etc.). And series representation matters for series that already have reps. Once you've already completed the main cast, sales become a lot less important (although certainly nobody would be surprised if Mario got another slot).

You haven't been paying attention. You don't seem to recall that I was calling people out for high scores from the beginning and pointing out the mathematical limitations of the expected roster size vs. the amount of % you can dish out to all these characters. I still would've said that was too high.

Completely agree with you on both points. Game sales are the best character popularity poll you can find, because they actually involve the economic decision to purchase the game. And Sakurai has said in the past character adds should get people to buy the game.
And agree with the mathematical limitations thing as well. I try not to dish out high percentages because statistically that does not make sense. There is no way all these characters when in relation to each other are all that likely.
I look at character ratings the same way I look at Fire Emblem attacks and hit percentage. And for the most part, if it was life or death in a battle in Fire Emblem, I would not use the hit percentage for most of these characters as rationale for an attack.

Onto Medusa:
Medusa Likelihood: 40%
Medusa seems to me like a fairly possible choice for a KI:Rep. She serves an important role in the most recent game and was the original boss. Palutena is more likely, but I would not count out Medusa. Her status as KI's original boss should not be overlooked. However, Smash has always chosen hero characters before villains, so there's that. Palutena's more likely, but Medusa is solidly in second.

Medusa want: 99% I flip between Medusa and Palutena all the time. At the moment, my nostalgia is kicking in so I want Medusa over Palutena. Her design is really awesome and she could bring a lot to the roster. I hope to see either her or Palutena in the roster.

Starfy: 26.96%

Nominations: Robin (Fire Emblem) x 5

 

[XenothiumX]

Medusa
Likelihood: 7%
Want: 5%

Starfy
Prediction: 25%
I have no Idea...

Nominations:
Dixie Kong x5

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Medusa: 6%

She's an easy semi-clone, but I don't think we'll get her.

Want: 50%
She'd be pretty cool but I want Palutena more.

Starfy Prediction:34%
He has a decent shot.

Nominations:
Sonic x3
Snake x2

 

[MargnetMan23]

I missed a day DX ALL IS LOST!
OK seriously,
12% Well she could be the second KI rep but Palutena's more likely and it's entirely possible we won't get one at all
Want: 35% *shrugs*

Starfy: 36.7% Well I want him in but not all people will give him optimistic scores

Nomz: G&W x5