Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[BluePikmin11]

Donbe and Hikari chance: 10% It's a solid chance, but in the end there are more newcomers that should happen before them.
Donbe and Hikari want: 50% I wonder what would two fighters do with only text, chatter as attacks. That would be pretty cool.
Daisy prediction: 0.56% Please keep as alt. costume or alt. color.
Nominations:
x5 Dr. Kawashima.

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Donbe and Hikari - 2%

I really can't see them getting in. A pair of two characters from a single game that was released only in Japan. They'd be a WTF retro character, and I feel there are better retro choices.

Want 0%

Plenty of other characters I'd want in before them.

Daisy Prediction - 1.56

x5 Count Bleck

 

[Cheezey Bites]

D&H:

Chance: 0.1%
Assist Trophy material to me, they'd have an interesting mechanic, but I don't think it's unique enough for them to overcome their obscurity.

Want: 0%
Nah, the only text based character I want to see is Goku from Yuyuki, and that's only for the Goku4Smash trolling.


Daisy: 100%
As a Peach palette swap!

Seriously: 1.8%
Jr, Waluigi and probably Rosalina (for some reason) will do better.


Tails*5
(He wanna fly high, So he can reach the highest of all of the tiers.)

 

[jaytalks]

Exactly. Everyone knew that he was going to be in the game (except for GamesRadar).

EDIT: Do you think that the fact that Marth's page leads to Awakening's website will reduce the chances of getting an Awakening character? I think that it might be worth re-rating Chrom and especially Lucina.

The Japanese Marth page links to Heroes of Light and Shadow for the DS, so no. I think it would be worth re-rating Lucina (although, I think she will do much worse so I'm not really all for it).

Hey Groose, did you see my Yarne music suggestions? On that note, let's not get any more Awakening characters, I think basically the entire soundtrack is in that Music section.

Donbe and Hikari -
Likelihood: 4%
The fact they got music in Smash helps, but their Japan only status doesn't. I think Sakurai will look else where for his retros.
Want: 70%
They seem cool to me. I've put them in my rosters before.

Daisy Prediction - 3.45%

x5 Matthew (Golden Sun)

 

[Golden Icarus]

Donbe & Hikari
Chance 0.5%
I really don't see it happening. First off, they're from a Japan exclusive title. I don't think they would include them over Takamaru, and I REALLY don't see them adding two Japan only retros. Secondly, they're just not that well known. Many people would recognize characters like Duck Hunt Dog, Balloon Fighter, Excitebiker, and Mach Rider, but almost no one knows who Donbe & Hikari are, let alone what game they're from.
Want 70%
It's a shame really, because I think they would make rather interesting fighters.

Daisy Prediction 2.2%

Nomination
Ray x5

 

[Deleted member]

Donbe & Hikari
Chance: 3%
Sakurai has paid attention to them and their game. They got a trophy in Melee as well as stickers and a song in Brawl. However, they are incredibly obscure characters that I doubt would make a playable appearance. I should probably compare them to Takamaru. I don't think I've seen their name surface on the boards in terms of retros, and when we do see retro characters, the most mentioned one is Takamaru. While Takamaru has been getting attention from Nintendo by having his own game in Nintendo Land, we haven't seen Donbe & Hikari for a long time. Even then, Takamaru isn't highly requested; he's really wanted, but he's not near King K. Rool or Little Mac levels of requests. While Hikari herself was a major character in Captain Rainbow, I doubt that will revive the series or something just by knowing how the game bombed in Japan. Overall, if we were to get a retro rep, it's Takamaru.
Want: 20%
I guess they would seem cool. I would give them a higher rating once fellow characters that appeared in Captain Rainbow, Little Mac and Takamaru, are playable. But for now, no thanks. Maybe Smash 6.
Speaking of Captain Rainbow...
Capt- DAISY?! WHAT?!... Prediction: 1.40%
Daisy has no chance of being playable. She'll still be a palette swap for Peach.
Nominations: Captain Rainbow 5x

Nah, the only text based character I want to see is Goku from Yuyuki, and that's only for the Goku4Smash trolling.

I'm now tempted to nominate Goku next.

 

[APC99]

Donbe and Hikari (one of MY threads! YAY!)

Likelihood: 5%. They're not exactly likely. Shin Onigashima may be acknowledged in Melee and Brawl, but it doesn't do too much for their chances.

Want: 85%. The two are pretty cool fighters, using their animal friends and text-based attacks. It'd be really interesting. I only put them at 85%, because I'd prefer Sukapon or Tamagon.

Daisy: 4%. Daisy's ending up as a Peach palette, it's kind of obvious. It's just Daisy doesn't have too much different from Peach that would be from source material. Even as a Daisy clone, what would she do? Use flowers as a shield?

Quote (Cave Story) x5

 

[DarkKry4]

Donbe and Hikari

Chance - 3%

Want - 50%

Daisy Prediction - 6.5%

x5 Rosalina

 

[Starcutter]

Donbe & Hikari: 10% gotta give them credit because even I recognize them. that's gotta be worth something
Want: 30% would be higher but I have no idea who they are.

Daisy: 2.3%

Noms:
Pichu x3
Eevee x2

 

[Hippopotasauce]

Donbe & Hikari want: 50%
Likelihood: 8%

Daisy: 3%

Rhythm Heaven Rep x5

 

[loganhogan]

Donbe & Hikari
Chance 25% They seem like they are perfect candidates for retro/surprise character and it's just a hunch that I think that if there is a list they would be some of the ones on the top of the list. They are referenced in modern games much like rob was and much like Takamaru is but I would not expect them before Takamar so I more or less expect them to fit assist trophy category more than anything.

want 65% They seem very interesting.

x1 Rosalina
x1 Pauline
x3 Funky Kong

4% Daisy

 

[YoshiandToad]

Hey! Yarne did a lot better in terms of want that I thought he would!

Donbe and Hikari
Chance: 5%
I can go no higher than this unfortunately because 1.) Duo character, 2.) Obscure Japanese only title and 3.) There are better reps Sakurai might want to dabble with before these two. They are at least semi well known by Sakurai, and Hikari got an appearence in Captain Rainbow alongside Little Mac, Lip, Takamaru and a bunch of other obscure characters. And Birdo.

Want: 30%
I'd prefer Duck Hunt Dog(who is easily the most recognised retro option of the bunch) or Lip(who has recieved a lot of recognition from Sakurai and has an interesting weapon) before Donbe and Hikari. They're a solid third choice for retro reps for me, and at least they're not ****ing Takamaru whom I'm already absolutely sick of seeing on everyone's rosters and he hasn't even been announced yet. (Seriously; am I the only one who thinks Takamaru; a samurai, is a boring choice compared to Game and Watch, Ice Climbers and R.O.B? ANOTHER (blue haired) swordsman who sometimes throws a shuriken. Let the good times roll, Smashboards WOO!)

Daisy Prediction: 2.3%
She will get slaughtered. She's a tough cookie, and frankly within the Mario spinoffs I prefer her to Peach, but god damn would she be one of the worst choices for a new Mario rep...unless they reference that third eye thing in her moveset in which case I'd come around to her eventually.

Toad, Bowser Jr, Paper Mario, Waluigi, Geno and even Rosalina fans are going to crucify her chances no doubt.

Nominations:
Substantial Yoshi Changes (Yarn, Baby, etc.) X 5
May as well continue this train on my favourite character.

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

Yarne beat Owain in want. I am OK with this.

Donbe & Hikari: 5%
Want: 50%
Daisy: 2.5%
Nominate:
Masked Marth alternate costume x 3
New non Chrom/Roy Fire Emblem character x 2

 

[Sid-cada]

Donbe and Hikari

Chance - 2.5% - The most likely duo character that will appear. Having received cameos from Kirby's Dreamland 3, a trophy in Melee, had music in Jam With the Band's predecessor, music in Brawl, and Hikari appearing in Captain Rainbow. They can claim to have a spiritual successor/partial sequel in Yūyūki, an actual sequel released for the Satellite view, and a port to the GBA. They are typically seen as some of Japan's classic videogame characters. That's more than a lot of retos characters can say. Sadly, they're duel nature and being obscure, never localized characters hurts them badly.

Want - 75% - Yes, please. I became interested in them after that awesome music in Brawl, which lead me to a research spree. The many items from there adventure could prove interesting in a duel character context, and their brother-sister bond has endeared them to me. One of my most wanted retros.

Daisy Prediction - 0.15% - Most agree that she's better off as a color swap, and Mario is crowded with completion as-is.

Nominations
Dark Matter X3
Hades X2

 

[Gam3rALO]

Donbe and Hikari
Chance: 3%

Want: 0%

Prediction for Daisy: 3.35%

Nominations
Paper Mario x5

 

[Gunla]

Donbe & Hikari:
Chances: .5%- Sakurai has acknowledged the existence of these two people a few times. But, he's one of the select few that hasn't given this duo little to no recognition. If we see a so called "Retro Rep" I'd expect it to be Takamaru, as his existence has been acknowledged thanks to Nintendo Land.

Want: 10%- I'm sorry, I don't like having so many duo or trio characters, just my personal preference.

Daisy: 2.3%- Being Playable as a full character? I WISH. (Note the lack of Sarcasm.)
Chances of being one of Peach's Palette Swaps? 100%!

Nominating...
Using my Extra Noms for this one! Let's get on with it!
Captain Rainbow X10

 

[LoneKonWolf]

Donbe & Hikari - 7.25%
they aren't ruled out entirely, but they do have a low chance.
want - 50%
i'm indifferent, as long as they don't interfere with any veterans returns that is,
prediction - 1.14%
everybody take out your umbrellas, a zero storm is coming through
Nominations: RoyX4
Dark pitX1
now since something interesting happen with fire emblem, I think we should visit the main characters once more (I'm probably alone on this idea, ain't I)

 

[Smasher 101]

Wow. Yarne beat Owain, Tharja, and even Ephraim in want. Can't say I expected that.

Donbe and Hikari's chances: 3%
Want: 50% - Indifferent.

Daisy prediction: 1.76%

Ray x5

 

[Gunla]

now since something interesting happen with fire emblem, I think we should visit the main characters once more (I'm probably alone on this idea, ain't I)

Well, because of Marth having a link to FEA, Lucina's Chances of Full Character Status is nearly shot. Chrom has little chances. Maybe we revote Ike and Roy?

 

[Toxicroaker]

D + H: 0.7%
Want: 2%

Daisy: 1.07%

x5 Excitebiker

 

[Seraphim.]

Donbe and Hikari

Chance: 10%
Want: 50% Indifferent

Daisy: 12%

Chrom x5

 

[Xenigma]

Donbe and Hikari - 1%
Not much to say here: an incredibly obscure pair of characters, and we already know that team-up characters are somewhat problematic to implement. Very little reason to believe Nintendo wants to revive them or that Sakurai prefers them over other retro/obscure characters. Would be a huge surprise.
Want - 0% - No thank you.

Daisy - 1.2%
She'll be a Peach color, folks.

Nominations
JRPG Rep x5 (aka Golden Sun, Xenoblade, etc)

 

[NickerBocker]

Donbe & Hikari

Chance: 0.1%
Who?
Want: 0%

Daisy: 0.8%

Nominations
Goemon x5

When Goemon is up ill throw up some music

 

[Erimir]

Donbe & Hikari

Not sure why I see people giving scores like 10% and 25%.

Popularity: Maybe by gamers of a certain age in Japan. Not exactly on the Japan's most wanted list. Nobody in America knows who they are... except the Nintendo geeks like us. Big whoop, they got a trophy; being one of over 800 trophies in Melee and Brawl isn't that big of an achievement.

Design: They're a duo. Sakurai's comments about the 3DS's limitations suggest that they might avoid adding more duos to the game.

Roster & Competition: I don't think retros are as guaranteed as people think. There are only so many NES era characters out there, and Sakurai doesn't have to keep adding them if it means scraping the bottom of the barrel. Eventually he will move on to SNES and N64 and Game Boy Color for any retros.

At any rate, there are better choices for retro characters, like Takamaru and Duck Hunt Dog. While Little Mac doesn't count for the "two retro newcomers" concept I think he could be conceived of as a retro character despite his recent revival.

I missed Mike Jones's day, but personally, I think he's actually more likely than Donbe & Hikari. Why? Because they've already put in Japan exclusive characters in the past (Marth in Melee, Roy, Lucas) so Mike Jones would be a Western exclusive rep. Not that he's terribly likely himself.

Donbe & Hikari chance: 0.7%
I'd be quite surprised to see them.

Donbe & Hikari want: 20%
I'd rather see other characters rather than more Japan-exclusives, especially ones as obscure as these.

Daisy prediction: 4%
People seem down on her chances, but they're definitely not nil. Were it not for Waluigi who is more unique (in more ways than one) she'd probably have more support as a Mario Sports/Kart/Party rep.

Nominations:
Dr Mario x5

Nominations
JRPG Rep x5 (aka Golden Sun, Xenoblade, etc)

What counts as a JRPG? Should this be JRPG Newcomer?

 

[Louie G.]

DONBE AND HIKARI:

Chance: .5%
If Sakurai is having trouble programming Ice Climbers, no way is he considering another duo. Plus Takamaru, Mach Rider, Lip, Muddy, Sukapon, or bust for retros.

Want: 20%
Eh...

Daisy Prediction: 2.5%
Be a lot of fun to see this happen on GameFAQs.

Noms: Palutena x5

 

[Zhadgon]

Characters:
Donbe and Hikari
Chance: 10% not so high but still a chance in a way, for every person that is saying that the Ice Climbers are having problems and they would be the only ones with that gimmick they are so wrong, once the Ice Climbers are in, that would mean the development team has figure out how to make double characters, now Sakurai has this the idea since Melee of adding another pair of characters similar or in some way to be a tag team like the Ice Climbers, first with Minus and Pluse and then in Brawl with Diddy and Dixie, so he still wants to add this gimmick but haven´t see the form, the idea, the design so maybe finally he has the chance to implement this concept into the game and what will be better than a retro characters like Donbe and Hikari.
Want: 95% they seem interesting, have a great story behind and their designs appeal to me, still the tag team combo seems a great idea if is implement well and I like the type of characters like Ice Climbers.

Prediction:
Daisy: 1.00% is not happening there still a lot of competition for a spot in the roster and even a greater competition between the Mario Series.

Nomination:
Travis Touchdown x 5

.n_n.

 

[SmashShadow]

Donbe and Hikari: 4%
I just don't see it happening. We only get at max 2 retros and Takamaru is most likely going to be one with at least a dozen others vying for that other spot.
Want: 25% Never played or heard of the game.

 

[FalKoopa]

Donbe & Hikari
Likelihood: 3%
A Japan-only obscure duo character sounds really unlikely, but they have gotten some acknowledgement in Melee and Brawl, so they have something.

Want: 85%
They're fairly interesting in terms of design and gameplay standpoints. They are also my top picks for Japan only retros, far ahead of Sukapon and Takamaru.

Daisy prediction: 1%
She's one of my favourite Mario characters, by the way.

Dr. Mario x 5

 

[XenothiumX]

Donabe & Hikari
Likelihood: 5%

Want: 10%

Daisy
Prediction: 3%

Nominations:
Krystal x5

 

[Erimir]

Characters:
Donbe and Hikari
Chance: 10% not so high but still a chance in a way, for every person that is saying that the Ice Climbers are having problems and they would be the only ones with that gimmick they are so wrong, once the Ice Climbers are in, that would mean the development team has figure out how to make double characters, now Sakurai has this the idea since Melee of adding another pair of characters similar or in some way to be a tag team like the Ice Climbers, first with Minus and Pluse and then in Brawl with Diddy and Dixie, so he still wants to add this gimmick but haven´t see the form, the idea, the design so maybe finally he has the chance to implement this concept into the game and what will be better than a retro characters like Donbe and Hikari.
Want: 95% they seem interesting, have a great story behind and their designs appeal to me, still the tag team combo seems a great idea if is implement well and I like the type of characters like Ice Climbers.

I agree that if they figure out how to make Ice Climbers work, they can add other duos.

It still affects those other duos though. Obviously, if they have to be "reduced" somewhat, Sakurai will be less eager to put in more characters that can't fit his vision for what they should be.

And if they get the Ice Climbers to work perfectly, that time lost is time that likely was not spent on lower priority duos. Just as an example, if they didn't get the Ice Climbers to work the way they wanted until 3 months before launch, what are the chances they'd have spent time working on another duo in the meantime that they also weren't sure was going to work? And in that case, would they try to rush a character in that reduced time frame?

The faster they figure those issues out, the less it would affect other characters.

Of course, for Donbe and Hikari the larger issue is their Japan-exclusive obscurity, which even without any suspected issues with Ice Climbers would still have me rating them well under 10%

 

[Jubileus57]

Donbe & Hikari: Likelihood: 1%
Want: 0%

Daisy Prediction: 7%. One of my favorite Mario characters, but her chances aren't that high...

Nominations: Bayonetta x5

 

[Groose]

I'm now tempted to nominate Goku next.

The Nintendo character? Sure. The DBZ character? No. I'll go Super Saiyan on you if you do.

The Japanese Marth page links to Heroes of Light and Shadow for the DS, so no. I think it would be worth re-rating Lucina (although, I think she will do much worse so I'm not really all for it).

Hey Groose, did you see my Yarne music suggestions? On that note, let's not get any more Awakening characters, I think basically the entire soundtrack is in that Music section.

Of course I did! I don't have time to put them in right now, but I'll get to it when I get a chance. Thanks for contributing.

Lucina is about halfway to another vote already, isn't she? It'll probably only be a few days until we rerate her.

I agree that if they figure out how to make Ice Climbers work, they can add other duos.

It still affects those other duos though. Obviously, if they have to be "reduced" somewhat, Sakurai will be less eager to put in more characters that can't fit his vision for what they should be.

And if they get the Ice Climbers to work perfectly, that time lost is time that likely was not spent on lower priority duos. Just as an example, if they didn't get the Ice Climbers to work the way they wanted until 3 months before launch, what are the chances they'd have spent time working on another duo in the meantime that they also weren't sure was going to work? And in that case, would they try to rush a character in that reduced time frame?

The faster they figure those issues out, the less it would affect other characters.

Of course, for Donbe and Hikari the larger issue is their Japan-exclusive obscurity, which even without any suspected issues with Ice Climbers would still have me rating them well under 10%

Amen. You're possibly the most well-reasoned, least-biased posters here, and this post is just a good example of that.

 

[colder_than_ice]

Donbe Hikari
Chance: 6% - They are from one of Nintendo's most obscure retro games. It hurts their chances that they've never had an oversees release.
Want: 87% - They are the most unique retro candidate.

Daisy prediction: 6%

Nominations: Aeron x5

 

[Vintage Creep]

I hope I understood all the rules, this is my first time trying this.

Donbe & Hikari chance: 2%. They were a trophy in Melee and probably a sticker in Brawl I guess so maybe they'll get some recognition this time around too, but never as a playable character. Not only they're very obscure retro characters, but there are a few more interesting couples which will have a chance first imho.

Donbe & Hikari want: 5%. This is pretty low mostly because I don't know them at all. I remember only reading about them in that Melee trophy. They look fun though, so I'm absolutely not against them, they're just not even close to my priorities regarding this game now.

Daisy prediction: I have a question first, sorry. Do I have to vote how much the result of the voting of her chances will be the next day? If yes, my answer is 5%. There's still quite a few people who actually want her in this game, surprisingly. I myself would like Rosalina a lot more and I don't want her lol.
If I didn't understand this part I will edit it, let me know (I'm pretty sure I did anyway).

Nominations: x5 Professor Layton

 

[PK_Wonder]

Donbe and Hikari 1%

predict: 8%

nominate Travis Touchdown x5

 

[Aqua Rock X]

Donbe and Hikari

Chance: 5% - They are retros that many don't see coming so Sakurai could always use them as a surprise reveal of sorts I guess.

Want: 55% - I'm more indifferent but I'll give 'em an extra 5% just for striking my interest a bit.

Daisy Prediction: .90% - To many all she'll ever be is a Peach costume.

Nominations:
Zero (MMX) x5

 

[Deleted member]

The Nintendo character? Sure. The DBZ character? No. I'll go Super Saiyan on you if you do.

Well of course the Nintendo character. However, I'm just thinking about it. I think the next character that I will nominate is Ninten. I'm surprised he didn't get rated on yet when he does have a decent chance.

 

[Golden Icarus]

Well of course the Nintendo character. However, I'm just thinking about it. I think the next character that I will nominate is Ninten. I'm surprised he didn't get rated on yet when he does have a decent chance.

If you're looking to nominate someone who hasn't been rated and has a decent chance, then why don't you help us finally get Ray rated. Come on, he needs it!

Spoiler

Please!

 

[Deleted member]

If you're looking to nominate someone who hasn't been rated and has a decent chance, then why don't you help us finally get Ray rated. Come on, he needs it!

Spoiler

Please!

I still wanna vote for Ninten. It's kinda painful seeing him being smacked in the middle of the list when he could be a potential 3rd Mother rep… despite that most likely not happen.

 

[Groose]

If you're looking to nominate someone who hasn't been rated and has a decent chance, then why don't you help us finally get Ray rated. Come on, he needs it!

[collapse=Ray]

Please!

[/collapse]

I'm grouping all Ray models together as the same character... you think this is a good idea or not? I personally think so, because who can tell which model will be chosen, and does that bit really matter?

Donbe and Hikari: 1%
Now, here's the laydown. It's a duo. Duos are harder to make than regular characters. You also have to account for the chance that one of them would make it on their own and have the other incorporated in a different way. I think there's maybe a 4% chance of seeing on playable... but the duo is only one such way.

I don't think they have anything over other Retros, though. They lack that "one big gig," if you get what I'm saying.

Donber and Hikari Want: 5%
I wouldn't hate 'em. But I don't know them, their design isn't appealing to me, they lack significance, and they'd be a lot of misdirected work. I'm going to have to toss out a pretty strong "no thanks" here.

Daisy Prediction: 4.56%
HI IM DAISY'S HATEBASE!

Ray x5

DAY OVER ​

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GROOSE DROWNED​

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