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Rate Their Chances: GAME OVER! Join the RTC Social Group Today!

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Oracle_Summon

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It's pretty uncharacteristic of me to do this, but I'm afraid I must ask--are you sure of these scores? Scores over 50% indicate that you think they're playable, and scores as high as 95% say that it's pretty hard to imagine them not playable. I'm just making sure you're aware of that before I add in your scores.


That would be incredible, but you're right--I would be crazy to nominate that.
Now that I know that Mallo is from Pushmo and not Super Mario RPG ,he chances shoot up to 75%.

Yeah, but I tend to give characters I don't know a 50%, if they are Nintendo characters to cover any bias I may have.
 

Rockaphin

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Mallo:
Chance: 7%
Want: 1%

X Protagonist:
Chance: 10%
Want: 40%

Nominations:
Metal Sonic x 5
 

jaytalks

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Mallo:
Chance: 1%
Want: 100%

X Protagonist:
Chance: 0%
Want: 0% Shulk or nothing.

Nominations:
Akari Hayami x 5
 

Burigu

Smash Ace
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If the X Protagonist is from The game made by Monolith Soft then:

X Protagonist:

Chance: 95%

He is created by the company Monolith Soft who has been a first party developer for Nintendo since 2008. Plus he is promoting a new series for the Wii U game, so his chances are pretty high.
No offense to you, I find your chance score pretty unrealistic, chance is based on the evidence, hints or even lack of evidence, and there is nothing pointing out to X protagonist when we already have Shulk a character from the same series and that is actually really liked, I find really hard to believe that a character from a game that we don't even know in which stage of development is, is going to appear in Smash, even if they wanted to promote the series, Shulk is good enough.

So changing to my scores

X protagonist:

Chance: 0%
  • The game is in development, Shulk is the one that people want right now
  • No Roy treatment for this one, Roy was probably included because it was easier to fill the slot with another clone than another character, since clones were a thing, now the game kinda tries to avoid, so Roy was a kind of special case of two birds with the same stone, they fill the slot and promote a game, but nowdays with lots of characters wanted making people harder to please, this doesn't seen like the best way to go.

Want: 0%
  • No hate for this one I much prefer a character I already know and like, and one with I already have a conection to, than a character that his game isn't even out

Mallo

Chance: 15%
  • New game for Mallo that rise his chances, the demise of Dillon is not that of a problem, if Sakurai thinks he can make something unique with Mallo
Want: 3%
  • No conection to the character

Predictions
Double trouble: 24.5%
Bowser Land: 13.6%

Nominations:
Bandit x 5
 
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KingofPhantoms

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Mallo - 5%

With Dillon as an Assist Trophy, I don't think we'll be getting any playable characters from an eShop game at all. Mallo's saving grace is his upcoming sequel, and even that doesn't help much.

Abstaining from want.

X Protagonist - 5%

No reason for him to get in over Shulk.

Want - 0%

No interest, plus him getting in over Shulk would be a terrible decision, IMO.

Double Trouble Prediction - 25.64%

....I have absolutely no clue around where this will end up at....high or low....just a wild guess....

Bowser Land Prediction - 11%

Plusle/Minun x5
 

Oracle_Summon

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No offense to you, I find your chance score pretty unrealistic, chance is based on the evidence, hints or even lack of evidence, and there is nothing pointing out to X protagonist when we already have Shulk a character from the same series and that is actually really liked, I find really hard to believe that a character from a game that we don't even know in which stage of development is, is going to appear in Smash, even if they wanted to promote the series, Shulk is good enough.
I agree. Now looking at my quote it doesn't make that much sense. I was basically saying that if we did not get Shulk, for whatever reason, then i think someone should fulfill his place.

Thankfully, I feel we are getting Shulk.
 

Pacack

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I agree. Now looking at my quote it doesn't make that much sense. I was basically saying that if we did not get Shulk, for whatever reason, then i think someone should fulfill his place.

Thankfully, I feel we are getting Shulk.
If you'd give Shulk a 95% and the X Protagonist a 95%, that would mean that there's a 90.25% chance of getting both of them. That's just unrealistic.
 

Pacack

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That was only counting if Shulk does not make the cut.
Then you need to put that into your percentage. How likely do you think it is that Shulk is getting in?

Take the overall chance of getting a Xenoblade/X character (Let's say you think it's 95%) and give the majority to Shulk and the rest to the X protagonist.

If you give Shulk a 75% chance of getting in, then the X Protagonist would get 20%. That's a lot more reasonable than 95% for both of them.
 

Sid-cada

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Mallo

Chance - 2.75% - Eh. Not the most likely due to competition and the difficulty in pulling off a move set.

Want - 10%- Ugh. Very few merits as playable, and would be better off on a stage.


X Guy

Chance - 0% - I doubt another Roy will happen. C'mon, it's hard enough that we have to predict existing characters, and we have to predict characters we barely even know exist?

Want - 0.01% - On the off chance he uses a Mecha.


Predictions

K. Ridley - 22.69% - The multiplication of Ridley and K. Rool's scores.

Browser Land - 65.23% - Funny, I thought Super Bell Hill was confirmed as a stage. Turns out I was just imagining things. Ah well.


Nominations
Fountain of Dreams X5
 

Oracle_Summon

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Then you need to put that into your percentage. How likely do you think it is that Shulk is getting in?

Take the overall chance of getting a Xenoblade/X character (Let's say you think it's 95%) and give the majority to Shulk and the rest to the X protagonist.

If you give Shulk a 75% chance of getting in, then the X Protagonist would get 20%. That's a lot more reasonable than 95% for both of them.
Did I give Shulk a 75% chance of getting in? In the past, if I did, then looking back, Shulk should have had 95%.

The only reason X Protagonist had 95% was if Shulk was not in the game.
 

Glaciacott

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Did I give Shulk a 75% chance of getting in? In the past, if I did, then looking back, Shulk should have had 95%.

The only reason X Protagonist had 95% was if Shulk was not in the game.
I think what everyone else is getting at is that with your score you're instead saying, essentially, that there's a 95% chance Shulk won't be in the game because the X protagonist is 95% likely to be in it, assuming you think we will definitely get a Monolith Soft representative no matter what.

The percentages are all things considered. So, with every factor in mind, how likely is it really that the X protagonist/Mallo will be in the game?
 
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Oracle_Summon

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I think what everyone else is getting at is that with your score you're instead saying, essentially, that there's a 95% chance Shulk won't be in the game because the X protagonist is 95% likely to be in it, assuming you think we will definitely get a Monolith Soft representative no matter what.

The percentages are all things considered. So, with every factor in mind, how likely is it really that the X protagonist/Mallo will be in the game?
I think I specified it very carefully, or maybe I forgot to mention, that if Shulk is not in the game then I would like the X Protagonist.

Not that he would be replacing him. I guess I forgot to mention that?
 

Glaciacott

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I think I specified it very carefully, or maybe I forgot to mention, that if Shulk is not in the game then I would like the X Protagonist.

Not that he would be replacing him. I guess I forgot to mention that?
You did state that, but it doesn't matter because your numbers are NOT saying that, and in the end that's what's calculated.

Also, if you would LIKE the X-protagonist, then that's a WANT rating, not a chance rating.

Well, crap. Looking back it should have been a 97%. Sorry about that.....
Ok, you're not getting the problem.

The ratings are ALL THINGS CONSIDERED. So when you give Shulk 97% and X-protagonist 95%, what you're saying is that both will happen. Yes, you may be telling us that no, you mean that X-person.
As other people are telling you, that makes no sense. You're calculating multiple events tremendously off and ... you know what, **** it, I'm done. Here's a video that hopefully helps you more.

 
D

Deleted member

Guest
Mallo

Chance: 5% - Granted that Dillion became an AT, meaning less competition for Mallo & the Pushmo franchise has another game coming out soon...but I just don't see a character from the eShop happening, especially when Dillion was more requested than Mallo. (But hey, Toad was more requested than Rosalina & look where that got us....so what do I know)

Want: 0% - No connection to this character

Abstaining from X protagonist

Nomination:

Krystal x 4
Peppy Hare x 1
 

FalKoopa

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From what I recall, we're rating him with the assumption that he is not Shulk. But for now, we don't really know anything about the character.
Ah. I'll rate on that basis then.

X Protagonist: 0%
There is a limit to how new a character can get into Smash. As of now, we know rather little about X itself, other than that it borrows Xenoblade's combat system, and is likely a sequel to that game. Considering the newest character in Smash, Greninja, had his game released in October last year, there doesn't seem to a good reason to add him, except for promotion. Plus, there is Shulk, who can do a great job representing both the games anyway.

Want: 0%
I can't want a character I know nothing about.

Mallo: 3%
His game has been quite successful on the eShop, but with Dillon out of the running, I don't really think any of the eShop characters really have been considered for playability.

Want: 0%
No connection to him whatsoever.
 

MetalMario128

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Mallo
Chances: 5%
Want: 0%

I couldn't really see a good moveset for him. Might make a cool assist trophy, though.

"X Protagonist"
Chances: 15%
Want: 5%

I would rather see Shulk before this character, but with E3 coming up it might be a surprise reveal and it could be another Roy situation.
 

Pacack

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Did I give Shulk a 75% chance of getting in? In the past, if I did, then looking back, Shulk should have had 95%.

The only reason X Protagonist had 95% was if Shulk was not in the game.
If you're saying this, and say Shulk has a 97% chance of getting in, and that the X Protagonist has a 95% chance of getting in when Shulk doesn't, you need to take your chance of Shulk not being in the game (3%) and take 95% of that.

.03 x .95 = .0285

So you should give him a 2.85% chance according to what you've said.
 
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colder_than_ice

Smash Lord
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Jan 7, 2013
Messages
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X-man
Chance: 2% - Some gaming journalists have actually speculated that X is supposed to be an MMORPG with online gaming elements. Assuming that's true then X will probably not even have a distinct protagonist and will likely just use a customizable avatars like most MMOs do. I'll even go so far as to say that the protagonist seen in the trailers actually looks like a customized avatar himself with his generic clothes, hairstyle, and big sword. He kind of resembles the avatars used in Monster Hunter. Even if the game does have a clear protagonist and is not an MMO, I'd still find it hard to believe that he could get in on account of how new he is.
Want: 0% - It's hard to want a character that I know nothing about.

Mallo
Chance: 1% - He's relatively unknown. I'm having a lot of difficulty imagining what his movepool would be in Smash.
Want: 53% - I actually like his design, I think he'd be fun to play as.

Rids n' Rool Prediction: 27%
Bowser Land prediction: 19%

Nominations: Calling to the Night x5
 
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Oracle_Summon

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If you're saying this, and say Shulk has a 97% chance of getting in, and that the X Protagonist has a 95% chance of getting in when Shulk doesn't, you need to take your chance of Shulk not being in the game (3%) and take 95% of that.

.03 x .95 = .0285

So you should give him a 2.85% chance according to what you've said.
.....Its not that Shulk doesn't have higher percentage, it is only if Shulk is not in the game. It is rating them separately and only if Shulk does not get in. Though if I did put 75% on X Protagonist before I stated that if Shulk was not confirmed to be in the game, then that makes sense.

So I guess X Protagonist's chances are about 5%, even less if Shulk gets in.
 

Kenith

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Mallo:
Chance: 5%.
If Dillon is any indication, eShop characters don't exactly have enough going for them to warrant a playable slot, but an Assist Trophy is likely. Pushmo is a small, niche series; most of which are oft overlooked when looking for new characters.

Want: 2%. I wanted Dillon...

"X" Protagonist:


Chance: 1%. Normally, I wouldn't say a character is too new. However, this guy is too new. Smash Bros comes out in a couple months, and we don't even know who this guy is, what he could do, we don't even know much about his own game. And there's a certain somebody that would represent his series better...

Want: 4%. Could be cool, but I couldn't be bothered to care.

-------- Predictions:
Double Trouble Rool & Ridley: 45.5%.
Bowser Land: 13.2%.

-------- Nominations:
Nightmare x3
Aran Ryan x2
 

LoneKonWolf

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Mallo - 4.50%
just because he has a new game doesn't mean much, along with that he's a bit obscure because of e shop and lacks move pool makes him pretty random and unlikely
want - 10%
I don't see much interest he's mostly meh
X protagonist - 0.01%
the game doesn't even have a realse date, and smash is coming out in a month to 4, we don't even know who the protagonist is either, plus shulk is a more known character in the franchise,
how will he get in?
want - 0%
I don't know anything about him, but I know a lot about shulk
so basically a zero
double trouble - 56.07%
interesting. . . just an wild guess from me
bowser land - 22.63%
another wild guess, but with more pessimism
nominations:
Pirate ship (legend of Zelda)X5
 
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Groose

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"X" Protagonist Chance: 2.5%
We have precedent for something like this happening. His name is Roy. However, Roy's situation does have quite a few differences...

1) Roy was a last minute clone. He was never intended to be a unique character in his own right, and I think the emphasis has shifted away from filling the roster with last-minute clones. If this bloke gets in, I'll assume he'll take quite a hefty amount of work.

2) Roy didn't face competition from a hugely popular character from his own series. This is from what I can garner, anyway. Shulk is a really popular request, and I don't think FE had one (even in Japan) back in the Melee days.

3) Roy was hands-down going to be the guy in the spotlight in his own game. Although Sakurai probably knows the details of X, we don't. Someone who looks like Shulk (or perhaps Shulk himself) has also been teased for this game, albeit not in the protagonist's role. The "X Protagonist' could very well be overshadowed in his own game.

When it all comes down to it, "X Protagonist," the future doesn't belong to you! Shulk is the one who will get into this game!

"X Protagonist Want: Abstain

I don't know very much about him. *laughs* Could you ask me this question next year?

Mallo Chance: 5%
I always thought Dillon was the more likely of the eShop duo. His design and series lent themselves to a fighting game a lot better than Mallo and Pushmo. I could still see him getting in, but I think it's far more likely the eShop just isn't going to cut it.

Mallo Want: 25%
I've heard good things about Pushmo, and it's on my list of games to try. Mallo might be interesting and help a good series grow, but I'm not a huge fan of his design.

Spectator Mode x5
Why do you have to be gone?

DAY OVER

RETURN OF GROOSE
 

Pacack

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2) Roy didn't face competition from a hugely popular character from his own series. This is from what I can garner, anyway. Shulk is a really popular request, and I don't think FE had one (even in Japan) back in the Melee days.
Lief was decently popular, being the only Lord aside Marth to even exist at the time, but people only really asked for Marth (I don't think anyone imagined two Fire Emblem characters getting in).
 

DaUsername

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Mallo
Chance: 3%
Want: 2%

X Protagonist
Chance: 0.5%
Want: Abstain

Predictons
King K. Ridley: 55%
Bowser Land: 60%

Edit: Late by 7 minutes. Darn.
 
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Groose

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Mallo
10.62% chance
37.28% want

Mallo did something few have been able to do in the last hundred days or so--he broke the 10% barrier. He's not overly popular, but he does have a small following as well. Looks like this is one day we should have had sooner, huh? You guys should have Pushmo'd for it. ...cue the tumbleweed...

"X Protagonist"
5.53% chance
12.30% want

Interestingly, the "X Protagonist" is one of our least-wanted ideas. How can we want what we do not know? Additionally, Shulk stole support even from fans of the series, so the "X Protagonist" was really X'd out. The later I update, the worse my jokes get.

Prepare for trouble! Make it double! K. Rool and Ridley are two of the most popular characters on this board (they place first and third on our want chart, with Palutena in the middle), and many agree that it would be great if they both got in. Please rate "both Ridley and K. Rool" in chance and want. Additionally, we're going to visit an amusement park... a very frightening amusement park. Please rate Bowser Land in chance and want. Tomorrow we have even more characters off of our want chart. We'll be discussing Isaac in a straight-up rerate and Pac-Man without his Ghoslty Adventures look. Please predict away!
 

The Light Music Club

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Double Trouble:
Chance: 60% - I think due to several factors we will most likely get both, I wouldn't be very surprised though if we don't get one of them. I'd be stunned if we don't get either.
Want: 95% - I like King K Rool, and back in Melee I wanted Ridley, so yeah for the sake of most players, I think it's only fair.

Bowser Land:
Chance: 35% - I don't really know how popular the area is.
Want: 10% - No connection, but it does have Bowser. But I also want other stages.

Predictions:
Isaac - 65%
Pacman - 60% - A high rating since Mega Man has his classic look.

Nominations:
Mr. Dream Boss x 3
Charlie (Mario Golf) x 2
IdolM@ster Character x 1
 
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D

Deleted member

Guest
Double Trouble and Bowser Land have been added to the Directory.
If you have rated King K. Rool, Ridley, and the concept of a Super Mario 3D World stage, I suggest you check what you said on those days!

Double Trouble
Chance: 4.5%

.05 X .9 = .045 X 100 = 4.5%
This is something that I believe hinges on Ridley.
I gave King K. Rool a 90%; I still agree on this rating. I don't think that he's a shoo-in, but he presents a very strong case. With the Kremlings back in action on Smash Run, being one of the most requested characters worldwide, being just oozed with potential (something that is being pushed with the current newcomers), and having overall importance within his franchise, I say that King K. Rool has a very decent shot of getting in Smash.
Ridley on the other hand... well... I'm still on the same boat that he's a stage hazard and I still agree with my 5%.
I say it's possible that both of these characters are on the roster... but I think the chances are pretty slim.
Want: 40%
King K. Rool? HELL YES! He is within my Elite Four (Shulk, Little Mac, Bandana Dee, and King K. Rool)! Of kourse I want him! He is an awesome villain that is nothing like Bowser. He is dishonorable and will do anything to krush the Kongs! That, and he is so freaking unique!
But then... Ridley. Honestly, he doesn't interest me at all and my interest is heavily dwindling. I rather have other newcomers than him. He's important to Nintendo and Metroid, but I really don't care for him at all.
I'll gladly accept King K. Rool, but I rather have other characters than Ridley.
MONADO, FLAME SHEILD!

Bowser Land
Chance:
10%

My original score for a Super Mario 3D World stage was a flat-out 0%. I change my mind on that; I think that there is a decent, 20% chance of it happening.
Bowser Land is graced with several things. It is a stage that is vastly different than what we've seen in Smash. What we could see is that this stage could have some circus themed stage hazards (like silly bombs and roller coasters). With a 3D Land stage being present on the 3DS, I'm unsure if Sakurai will go out and make a similar, grassy stage for a 3D Worlds stage; Bowser Land is pretty different from other areas in the game. Lastly, it's a Bowser area; people have been demanding for Bowser's Castle for quite some time and Bowser Land would offer a good alternative to that.
The worst that can be said is that it comes from a recent 3D Mario game. Smash is behind the times with that (Isle Delfino in Brawl and now a Galaxy stage on the Wii U version). As such... a 3D World stage shouldn't be expected.
Due to how different Bowser Land is, there is a good chance that it could happen, but its recency might ruin its chances of becoming a stage.
Want: 100%
I want a 3D World stage and Bowser needs a stage. This would be an amazing compromise of both these things.
Also, I like Bowser Land for how different it is. Who ever thought an evil tyrant like Bowser, who's castles and areas are generally lava galore, would have a land dedicated to bright neon lights and circus themes? This amazed me when I first heard of this area.

Isaac Prediction: 45.06%
Why are we rating Isaac again?
Non-Ghostly Adventures Pac-Man Prediction: 10.22%
I think his Ghostly Adventures appearance is the one that people are expecting... I bet the want here will be big, however.

Nominations: Dr. Eggman 5x
 

andimidna

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Double Trouble (The Baddies Brawl needed)

[collapse=The villains of DK and Metroid kollide]

King Kraid Rool is best lord [/collapse]
They are both pretty much necessary.
How good this game is will be largely swayed based off their roles.
Both should make it, but will they?

This concept is only as likely as its weakest character- and after the Smash Direct, this is Ridley.
K Rool got a nice boost from the Direct, but Ridley was hinted at being deconfirmed.
However, I have seen many points made by @Smashoperatingbuddy123 that prove
-Ridley is about the size of Rosalina, and is much smaller than Mother Brain
-His animations do not match a stage hazard's typical animations
The vague hinting isn't enough. Sakurai shouldn't pour salt for 9 months only to give us the wounds at the most hyped event, E3.
There isn't much logic that goes into leaving him out.

So I'd rank them individually at:
K Rool- 80%
Ridley- 65%

To find the likelihood of both I think would be: .8 x .65 = .52

Chance: 52%
Want: 90%
They really do need to get in both of them.
Leaving them out would be disappointing.
I kan't imagine Sakurai only adding 4/6 of the most requested characters, I mean, he added WFT. But he needs to also add the karacters everybody wants, that's how you make a good game. If he doesn't give the fans what he wants, then he's krazy.

Bowser Land:
-Bowser's castle included- Bowser stage needed (75%)
-SM3DW representation (45%)

.75 x .45 = .3375

Chance: 33.75%

I honestly think I should be on the high end of the scores. I'd be surprised if people are confident in this.

Want: 90%

It left a good impression, and even looks very nice on the small gamepad screen. One of the worlds that was actually fun to explore, even though there wasn't much to explore. I just hope it isn't a traveling stage. I like traveling stages, but this wouldn't make a good one.
If I made a list of stages I want in Smash, this would likely be in the top 10... maybe 15.

Pre:

Isaac: 48%
Just barely below 50. (Are we rating him to break his tie with Shulk? I'll try to keep it if I can :troll:)
Pac-Man: 29%
Mega Man has his classic, iconic design. His new design is hated and unsuccessful. His classic design is the opposite. I personally think this is more likely than not, but I don't know anybody else that shares this opinion.

Noms:
x2 Medusa
x3 Bayonetta

Does anybody else think Chrom and Takamaru should be re-rated? No? Ok, I'll just rate Medusa and Bayonetta
 
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AustarusIV

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Ridley and King K. Rool

Wow, we're rating these two at once?! Fine by me, as they're two of my most wanted characters for SSB4.

But unfortunately, I'm feeling really pessimistic right now. So I have to be realistic in my predictions.
Ridley alone gets a 45% in chance, much to my dismay. Even though Sakurai has been intentionally vague on Ridley's appearance in SSB4 (while dropping hints that he's a stage hazard), I still believe that he isn't going to deliver to the Metroid fanbase.

K. Rool himself gets a 50% in chance. I think he has a slightly better chance than Ridley because of the appearance of Kremlings in Smash Run, but for all we know, that could be a red herring. He could very well be a boss character like Yellow Devil, or a collectible trophy again. It's because of this that I find his chances iffy.

Both of them get a 100% in want from me.

So that means:
Chance: 22.5%
Want: 100%

Bowser Land

Chance: 55%

I might be optimistic in saying this, but I'm confident that we're getting another mainline Mario stage, and this time it will be Bowser's time to shine.

Want: 90%

Definitely. Bowser needs a stage of his own for Smash, and I still can't believe we have yet to get any information about this.
 

Rockaphin

Smash Champion
Joined
Feb 13, 2014
Messages
2,490
Location
Rogueport
NNID
Rockaphin
3DS FC
2595-0113-8473
K. Rool & Ridley:
Chance: 40%
Want: 100%
That's a no brainer. . .

Bowser Land:
Chance: 0%
Want: 100%
Wait not this Bowser Land?
Oh. . . . well then. :troll:
Chance: 45%
Want: 65%
I'd rather see some other area. I'd rather see Bowser's Castle first and even after that, I don' think Bowser Land is too necessary.

Nominations:
Chaos 0 x5
 

Hippopotasauce

Smash Lord
Joined
Jul 3, 2013
Messages
1,659
NNID
Hippopotasauce
Ridley + K.Rool Likelihood: 15%
Want: 90%

Bowserland Likelihood: 38%
Want: 95%

Isaac: 47.45%
Classic Pac-Man: 59.56%

Rhythm Rerate x5
 

Toxicroaker

Smash Lord
Joined
Jun 16, 2013
Messages
1,278
Location
Everywhere
3DS FC
4184-2367-6702
Ridley K. Rool: 12%
Want: 100%

Bowser Land: 4.78%
Want: 100% The music is amazing. It is in my top ten nintendo music collection. (I think it places fourth out of my top one hundred.)

Isaac: 32.95%
Classic Pac-Man: 21.72%

x5 Competitively Overpowered Character
 
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