Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[Laniv]

Here's my question for everyone


How necessary do you think a new Mario character is each Smash Bros game?



Every Smash Bros game has added at least two Mario characters. The only exception you could count is Brawl. Which didn't add any core Mario cast characters. But we did Wario and Diddy Kong. Two characters who appear in a ton of Mario games but are listed as different franchise

Is it necessary? Eh, that's subjective. But I will say that Toad is, to this very day, the most bizarre omission in this series. I will beat the drum about this until the day he gets in

 

[Hadokeyblade]

I wouldnt be surprised if one of the next Mario characters in smash was one of the rabbids

 

[Louie G.]

These are the "necessary" Mario characters. There might be a case for Bowser Jr too, but all in all these four will always be important. They're the bare minimum.

I think most longstanding major series in Smash have surpassed the "bare minimum" by now and are onto more superfluous additions. Mario is no exception and I think that's fine. While I don't think a new character is 100% necessary, I do think it will 100% happen. Every game in the series has added at least two characters from the greater Mario-verse and there's no reason to suspect otherwise now. If not two characters this time, then at least one. Toad is always an option if they choose to take it, Paper Mario has been seeing notable prevalence lately, Waluigi is far and away the single most requested first party character. Geno, if you want to count him, is going to be an even stronger candidate moving ahead on the heels of a perfectly timed SMRPG remake. And we could dig into DKC and WarioWare if we wanted. Endless possibilities and I haven't even highlighted all of them.

I think at the very least, we will see an easy crowd-pleaser added through Waluigi. I don't think any of these additions are "necessary", but anyone involved in the mainline series or sports / kart / party games is susceptible to appeal to the widest spread of players possible. In this sense, I do think it's fundamentally necessary to keep building on Mario because it's a series that will always maintain its mass appeal. It's the widest possible net of characters for casual fans to be excited about, amidst less recognizable characters from either newer games or smaller series. So with that in mind, I wouldn't be surprised if Nintendo themselves actively suggest this to Sakurai.

 

[Sucumbio]

How necessary do you think a new Mario character is each Smash Bros game?

I'm not sure Nintendo specifically commands Sakurai to include 2 new Mario (or Mario adjacent) characters so much as each new Smash title seems to coincide with a recent new Mario game with either a new character (Rosalina) or filling out wants there (Wario, Diddy, Daisy, Bowser Jr. and the Koopalings)... But it's clear there's a heavy expectation for it even his pick for "wtf" character was from Mario so... But yeah it's a safe bet we will continue to get at least 2 more Mario characters even especially if you include Geno for instance or Dixie, or more closer to the source like Waluigi, King Boo, Goomba etc. and yeah where the **** Toad damn it!

 

[Noipoi]

Is Waluigi just about a lock for the next game?

Please?

 

[Ivander]

Is Waluigi just about a lock for the next game?

Please?

Feels like it. Is he? Have to wait and see what happens.

 

[Pupp135]

Here's my question for everyone


How necessary do you think a new Mario character is each Smash Bros game?



Every Smash Bros game has added at least two Mario characters. The only exception you could count is Brawl. Which didn't add any core Mario cast characters. But we did Wario and Diddy Kong. Two characters who appear in a ton of Mario games but are listed as different franchise

While I don’t think a new Mario character is necessary, I’d be shocked if Waluigi misses the cut next game because of his fan demand. In addition to Waluigi, I wouldn’t be shocked if Pauline or to a lesser degree some version of Toad makes the cut.

 

[AlRex]

I don’t think Ultimate has much to it for me besides a big roster and a VS mode, and a VS mode is basically the bare minimum. The Classic Modes are alright, though World of Light just feels tedious, and a lot of what I remember from the last times for me, a lot of the actual gameplay was variations on just regular fighting. Which is fine, I guess, and probably had to happen to get “Everyone is Here” going.

This is probably why I’m pretty down on “Just do Ultimate Deluxe!” because that is going to have to be really “deluxe” for me to have much interest, but that is me personally. I’d be personally fine with losing generally less popular and more derivative characters (though I recognize that this is in the eye of the beholder), if it can be a tighter, more interesting game with more fun things to do, better online, all that. I feel like this is the unpopular opinion now, and a lot of people I see in this thread just want Smash to be Super Madden Brothers now.

However, my only real ideas to get around that would be 1. the live service model (“Everyone is Eventually Here Again!”) with a solid base roster and a lot of customization, like Duke of Dorks’s idea. But that has its own problems still. 2. My impossible “Nintendo VS Everyone Else” idea, which is a half-Nintendo, half-third parties roster, fine tune veterans while also still getting to include more hype-building newcomers. But I recognize there’s also something drastic about that, and maybe it should be considered its own thing, in a sense.

I’m also at a weird point where I find fan games and mods and other highly customizable platform fighters more fascinating, because the potential seems more limitless there, but it can also be hobbled a bit by ambition and creativity being outweighed by certain realities.

 

[Louie G.]

Is Waluigi just about a lock for the next game?

Please?

I don't wanna jump the gun on it, but it really feels like he has everything in his corner. It's gotta be nice for the most requested character to also be from Nintendo's most profitable and active franchise, there's quite literally no obstacle this time. In the past characters like Ridley or K. Rool needed to fight uphill against practicality and relevance respectively, and Waluigi is coming in hot with a similar amount of demand and neither of those problems. We always get a couple crowd-pleasers, we always get a new Mario character, there's no reason not to do it unless Sakurai truly truly hates the guy.

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

I will beleive it when I see it.
Been burnt out twice already and got to see the character I wanted most become a source of mockery and ridicule.

 

[BuckleyTim]

This is probably why I’m pretty down on “Just do Ultimate Deluxe!” because that is going to have to be really “deluxe” for me to have much interest, but that is me personally. I’d be personally fine with losing generally less popular and more derivative characters (though I recognize that this is in the eye of the beholder), if it can be a tighter, more interesting game with more fun things to do, better online, all that. I feel like this is the unpopular opinion now, and a lot of people I see in this thread just want Smash to be Super Madden Brothers now.

Gonna be honest, I think a lot of people don't have that much faith in Smash to deliver good new modes/single player options? I feel like a lot of people imply that whatever Smash does that isn't characters is just not gonna be worth it, and I... kinda understand that, if only because the chances of the roster being small enough to do something Subspace-like really isn't gonna happen. As for modes... well, actually i'd play the next smash a lot if they refined Smash Run or tried something experimental.

 

[Hadokeyblade]

Personally i think ya'll are over estimating Waluigi's chances a tiny bit

 

[SPEN18]

Here's my question for everyone


How necessary do you think a new Mario character is each Smash Bros game?



Every Smash Bros game has added at least two Mario characters. The only exception you could count is Brawl. Which didn't add any core Mario cast characters. But we did Wario and Diddy Kong. Two characters who appear in a ton of Mario games but are listed as different franchise

I don't think there's any series where I'd say you should always add a character every game just by default; you still have to consider anything within the larger context of that particular game's roster construction. However, as long as there are still strong candidates from Mario, I don't have an issue with continuing to get Mario characters. At this current point it still doesn't feel like you have to reach at all to come up with perfectly viable candidates from Mario.
At any rate, Mario will always have the highest amount of content overall, being Nintendo's flagship franchise, and there's no problem with that. But, yeah, there will always be the debate about exactly how much more it should get relative to others.

 

[TheLamerGamer]

This conversation about whether they "need" to add a mario character is making me think.

When Incineroar was announced I wasn't active here (since I was 13 and wasn't allowed social medias, and this definitely would've counted), but from what I saw elsewhere people were treating it like a bad decision, and that Nintendo should've added geno or something instead.

But Incineroar is very likely the best character they added to ultimate from a business standpoint - adding a fan request will always get headlines and whatever, but so will any reveal.

But your average smash player doesn't know what a geno is, and plenty of them are too young to have even heard of something like banjo-kazooie. But everyone knows pokemon and mario, and in a casual audience that's what'll make people want the game - every non-fan I play with immediately gravitates to charizard or pikachu or kirby, because they're recognisable.

On the other hand a hardcore fan-request will mostly appeal to people who were always going to buy the game anyway, because they're fans of the series.

So I think it'd honestly just be stupid not to add a mario character and a pokemon in each game, even if we don't necessarily find it as exciting.

 

[Louie G.]

Personally i think ya'll are over estimating Waluigi's chances a tiny bit

That's fair, though what's the counterargument? The reason I'm as confident as I currently am is because I don't perceive any actual obstacle. They could of course just choose not to add him, so I would hesitate to call him a lock just as I would any other character, but the only real argument I ever hear against him (he only appears in spinoffs) is a nonissue when those games are moving units equal to or greater than the apparent be-all-end-all main series.

We also just... don't really have that many gangbuster first party characters left. Not saying we're scraping the bottom of the barrel, I'm just stating the fact that people aren't backing first parties the way they used to. Waluigi is a rare breed right now, where he's the only one matching the energy and momentum previous fan favorites had with a few others trailing a fair distance behind (BWD, Isaac). We typically don't see this kind of support behind characters as prevalent within Nintendo's brand as Waluigi currently is, instead its usually regulated for characters who have other problems that need to be addressed. Waluigi is contextually an underdog, but has no real barrier to cross. He's just an assist trophy, and people wish he wasn't.

Meanwhile, if Waluigi's biggest external problem is being regulated mainly to Mario Kart and Mario Party - series which have two of the top 10 best selling games on the Switch under their belt - that's not a bad problem to have. That's how I feel about the whole thing at least.

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

I just want the Band-Aid ripped off immediately next game.

Had to put up with people giving me **** for supporting Waluigi in the For times and having to throw in the towel when Rosalina got revealed (there was no way Waluigi was getting in instead of Jr. at that point).

Had to deal with others' blind optimism pre-Ultimate and the fallout of the Assist reveal. Hell, I went in not expecting Waluigi and briefly got my hopes up when got revealed as an Echo....only for that brief moment of hope to be near immediately destroyed.

Then came the memes, the spamming across all forms of social media, the conspiracy theories, the pushback. The character I wanted most since Wario was revealed in Brawl had become a complete joke. I couldn't even say I wanted Waluigi anymore without someone wanting to put a knife to my throat (metaphorically, but wouldn't surprise me if some were insane enough to want to do it for real).
And this didn't stop. Even after he was shown to be an Assist, there would always be the obnoxious ones pushing the idea he was still going to happen. Then he was going to be part of the Fighters Passes. Then he was going to be this special side DLC post-Sora.

And now.....now people are trying to push the narrative that he's guaranteed for the next game just because people lost their **** and went full meme after his Assist reveal?
No, just no. I can't do this again.

 

[dream1ng]

No series is necessary to expand each time. Necessity isn't even the best angle to approach it, but by that perspective, it would be a on a character-by-character basis. Does the series offer a character who makes a lot of sense to add? How many characters does that series already have, compared to other series, and against its total size? Is it a series that has accomplished a lot but hasn't received a character in a long time?

Everything needs to be analyzed on an individual basis, not as a sweeping rule. Of course that's not how it plays out with every series, some seem guaranteed, or very likely to receive new characters because they eschew all that in favor of promotion. Which isn't great, but one of the many things Smash is is an effective tool for business.

By that approach, yes it usually makes sense to add a Mario character. By virtue of the series size, there are many characters within it who are popular, well-known, and highly recurring. Those are all virtues for Smash candidates. But is it necessary? Even if a character has a stellar resume, at the current stage of Smash, where the biggest names in biggest series were mostly added a long time ago, it still doesn't make adding them a necessity.

At this point the only necessities would be if a series like Splatoon pops up, to give that representation. Other than that, it may make sense to add a character, but it still doesn't need to happen.

 

[KneeOfJustice99]

Here's my question for everyone

How necessary do you think a new Mario character is each Smash Bros game?

Every Smash Bros game has added at least two Mario characters. The only exception you could count is Brawl. Which didn't add any core Mario cast characters. But we did Wario and Diddy Kong. Two characters who appear in a ton of Mario games but are listed as different franchise

I might sound controversial by saying this, but I don't think there's such a thing as a "necessary" character in Smash. Even so - it's pretty useful to consider that the extended Mario cast (including spinoffs) are like, by far more recognisable to the "average person" than a lot of other picks. Even if you try and use the argument that Smash is big enough to be scraping the bottom of the barrel, it's hard to deny that picks like Waluigi and Toad would probably be more recognisable than a lot of fan-favourite suggestions like Bandana Dee, Raven Beak, and so forth, purely on the basis of being Mario characters.

I don't think it should be a requirement to add new Mario characters to every new Smash title, but it does make a lot of sense given the popularity of the series' extended cast - and the fact that even some comparative oddballs like Bowser Jr. or Rosalina are probably likely to be known by way more people, especially within the already existing Nintendo ecosystem that Smash is released exclusively within. You do have to remember - as much as the term "COGH" is thrown around, Smash is undoubtedly marketed to people who play on Nintendo platforms, so it makes sense that some reasonably "boring" picks like a new Pokemon or a Mario character are going to be a lot more recognisable (and better for business) to the game's core audience than like, Kratos.

 

[Louie G.]

And now.....now people are trying to push the narrative that he's guaranteed for the next game just because people lost their **** and went full meme after his Assist reveal?
No, just no. I can't do this again.

Well, I've personally never been that confident in Waluigi until now and I feel like now he's just in the best position he's been in through the series history, with less competition and more fan demand than previously. Eventually a character that can sustain this kind of popularity and relevance for this long kinda slots into that "frontrunner" role by process of elimination. But if it makes you feel any better, I can lie and just say he'll never be in Smash next time it comes up.

But jokes aside, I get how it feels. I got burnt on Rhythm Heaven a few times over and I don't feel like straining myself to be confident a third time. And I got the experience of being called a bandwagoner back during Smash 4, because who in the world would care about Rhythm Heaven without that damn leak? But if we were getting a new Rhythm Heaven game and it just so happened the community finally rallied behind a character and pushed it up to be one of the most requested fighters, I might feel a little better about it. So I hope you finally get what you want.

 

[dream1ng]

This conversation about whether they "need" to add a mario character is making me think.

When Incineroar was announced I wasn't active here (since I was 13 and wasn't allowed social medias, and this definitely would've counted), but from what I saw elsewhere people were treating it like a bad decision, and that Nintendo should've added geno or something instead.

But Incineroar is very likely the best character they added to ultimate from a business standpoint - adding a fan request will always get headlines and whatever, but so will any reveal.

But your average smash player doesn't know what a geno is, and plenty of them are too young to have even heard of something like banjo-kazooie. But everyone knows pokemon and mario, and in a casual audience that's what'll make people want the game - every non-fan I play with immediately gravitates to charizard or pikachu or kirby, because they're recognisable.

On the other hand a hardcore fan-request will mostly appeal to people who were always going to buy the game anyway, because they're fans of the series.

So I think it'd honestly just be stupid not to add a mario character and a pokemon in each game, even if we don't necessarily find it as exciting.

I think Inkling or Steve is the best character they added from a business standpoint. Given the current series all pretty much have their biggest, most recognizable characters already, it's largely the big names from big unrepresented series who drive the most business, of the newcomers.

I don't think Incineroar is going to convince many Pokemon fans to come play Smash if Pikachu, Charizard, Mewtwo, Greninja, Lucario, etc. don't. And at the point he showed up, in late 2018 two years into the Switch, I'm not sure how many copies of S/M or US/UM he moved.

Characters from big series don't stop being big draws just because they're not newcomers anymore. They're still the biggest characters in the game. Which is why Brawl can go ahead and not add any Mario characters, or Smash can go games and games without anyone new from Zelda or Kirby.

I mean, I think there's a reason Inkling is nearly front and center on the box, and none of the other newcomers are even on the cover. Like you said, the non-fans gravitate to Charizard or Pikachu or Kirby.

And fwiw the pushback against Incineroar wasn't because it was a bad idea to add a Pokemon, people knew we were going to get a Pokemon. It was 1) he wasn't the one a lot of people wanted, and 2) he disproved the Grinch leak.

 

[NintenRob]

You never know, but I think it'd be unwise to be too confident in Waluigi. Aside from the likes of Toad. There's a new* favourite in town Nintendo may want to push

 

[dream1ng]

I don't know if Waluigi is a lock but at this point he's the Mario character you'd put your money on if you didn't want to make a risky bet (including the option "no Mario newcomer"), because it paying off seems pretty likely.

For the past two games I thought he stood a decent chance, but I wasn't surprised when he didn't get in. This time, I would be shocked if he isn't added.

 

[Hadokeyblade]

You never know, but I think it'd be unwise to be too confident in Waluigi. Aside from the likes of Toad. There's a new* favourite in town Nintendo may want to push
View attachment 383111

I weirdly just cant see how she would play, i like to think i got a good idea on how most characters would play when suggested for smash but i just cant picture her being playable

 

[Ivander]

I weirdly just cant see how she would play, i like to think i got a good idea on how most characters would play when suggested for smash but i just cant picture her being playable

I mean, when Rosalina was first announced, did anybody picture her with a Puppeteer-like moveset fighting alongside a Luma?

 

[Louie G.]

I weirdly just cant see how she would play, i like to think i got a good idea on how most characters would play when suggested for smash but i just cant picture her being playable

I think her mic stand could make for a good staff-like weapon, and she could be somewhat of a siren whose notes inflict different status effects or simply act as slow floating projectiles. Alongside sound waves for some disjointed closer range attacks like aerials or smashes. Maybe some attacks or combo strings that involve a rhythm mechanic? Summon bandmates for big finishes?

I don't particularly expect her to happen and quite frankly I'd probably roll my eyes a bit if she got in over some other candidates - she's the new hotness right now after Odyssey but I don't think this is built to last - although if she delivers a fun music-oriented kit I would probably be willing to give it a whirl. Since that's like, her thing apparently. Would prefer Chorus Kids or DJ Octavio but I'll take what I can get at this point.

 

[dream1ng]

I weirdly just cant see how she would play, i like to think i got a good idea on how most characters would play when suggested for smash but i just cant picture her being playable

Fwiw Rosalina and Bowser Jr didn't end up close to how people were expecting them to play

I think there's potential to mine from the DK arcade games and the Mario vs. DK series which would set her apart from other Mario candidates. There's the music stuff too but I'd personally rather see that theming go to a character who has always been music-oriented like someone from RH or a Splatoon idol.

 

[NintenRob]

I mean, when Rosalina was first announced, did anybody picture her with a Puppeteer-like moveset fighting alongside a Luma?

I actually did see a few people suggest she fight with Luma

 

[Garteam]

IMO, the best argument that can be made against Waluigi and Bandana Dee's inclusion is "it is weird that it hasn't happened yet", which speaks to how strong their position is going into the next wave of Smash newcomers. They've both reached Ridley/K. Rool-tier popularity during Ultimate's lifespan and, unlike the Reptile Bros., both characters continue to make prominent appearances in series that have consistent entries.

At this point, I think they're about as close as you can get to absolutely being playable if the next round of Smash content is a new entry. I also think they have a really strong shot of being DLC if Ultimate gets more support, but there is the factor of DLC only using promotional reps for new Nintendo characters that needs to be considered. Bandana Dee could get around this by representing Forgotten World, but Waluigi struggles more in this department. However, if a new wave of DLC for Ultimate were to essentially replace a new Smash game on the Switch 2, I still think they'd add Waluigi anyway simply because of how glaring his omission has become to the larger fanbase. Shoutouts to CNN for covering the breaking news of people being pissed when Waluigi was revealed as an assist trophy for Ultimate at E3 2018.

 

[NintenRob]

Perhaps a hot take, but I don't really see Waluigi as a "Weird it hasn't happened yet." Sort of deal.

He's always been in a weird position in the franchise. He exist solely to be Wario's partner but has never appeared in a Wario game. He's Luigi's rival but is totally absent in every Luigi themed game. He's never had a mainstream appearance, the closest to one would be his clothes in Odyssey (to tie in with his amiibo) and Mario Maker costume. The joke with him at this point is that he doesn't show up in anything significant. Even the Mario & Luigi franchise, which would have been the perfect place to include a Wario Waluigi rivalry, never bothered to use him.

The dude is popular and is a big internet meme, but maybe that's just not enough for Smash. There's just always been someone more important to add (or a plant). Even now, Toad and Pauline recently featured in a big block buster movie.


I'm not opposed to Waluigi, I'm not even saying he's impossible. But I wouldn't be surprised if he misses out again.

 

[dream1ng]

IMO, the best argument that can be made against Waluigi and Bandana Dee's inclusion is "it is weird that it hasn't happened yet", which speaks to how strong their position is going into the next wave of Smash newcomers. They've both reached Ridley/K. Rool-tier popularity during Ultimate's lifespan and, unlike the Reptile Bros., both characters continue to make prominent appearances in series that have consistent entries.

At this point, I think they're about as close as you can get to absolutely being playable if the next round of Smash content is a new entry. I also think they have a really strong shot of being DLC if Ultimate gets more support, but there is the factor of DLC only using promotional reps for new Nintendo characters that needs to be considered. Bandana Dee could get around this by representing Forgotten World, but Waluigi struggles more in this department. However, if a new wave of DLC for Ultimate were to essentially replace a new Smash game on the Switch 2, I still think they'd add Waluigi anyway simply because of how glaring his omission has become to the larger fanbase.

I maintain that it is not weird it hasn't happened yet.

The earliest Waluigi was realistically going to get in was 4. Yeah he had Brawl support, but that would've been a very long shot. However, it's not weird Rosalina and BJ got in before him - a lot of characters were popular, and those two had the benefit of being in the mainline titles.

And then with BWD, he wasn't going to get in in 4; when that roster was being assembled it was only one year after RtDL, I don't think he had become that prominent in terms of recurring.

Then with Ultimate, they had six non-echoes in base. One was a third-party, one was a semi-clone, and one was allocated for a Pokemon. So there were basically three spots for an original first-party. Inkling needs no explanation. And then Ridley and K. Rool getting in over the less requested Waluigi and BWD also makes sense.

Oh and if we're counting PP, neither were going to be able to get in as the "surprise character" anyway.

So I don't think it is that weird neither have been included yet. I think if the next game comes and goes without Waluigi being added, that would be a lot more surprising. BWD has the resume, and with someone else he'd presumably get in, but it just depends how Sakurai continues to handle the part of the series he didn't do. I could see BWD going either way.

Shoutouts to CNN for covering the breaking news of people being pissed when Waluigi was revealed as an assist trophy for Ultimate at E3 2018.

Washington Post

 

[Hadokeyblade]

Perhaps a hot take, but I don't really see Waluigi as a "Weird it hasn't happened yet." Sort of deal.

He's always been in a weird position in the franchise. He exist solely to be Wario's partner but has never appeared in a Wario game. He's Luigi's rival but is totally absent in every Luigi themed game. He's never had a mainstream appearance, the closest to one would be his clothes in Odyssey (to tie in with his amiibo) and Mario Maker costume. The joke with him at this point is that he doesn't show up in anything significant. Even the Mario & Luigi franchise, which would have been the perfect place to include a Wario Waluigi rivalry, never bothered to use him.

The dude is popular and is a big internet meme, but maybe that's just not enough for Smash. There's just always been someone more important to add (or a plant). Even now, Toad and Pauline recently featured in a big block buster movie.


I'm not opposed to Waluigi, I'm not even saying he's impossible. But I wouldn't be surprised if he misses out again.

Ive always wanted a Mario and Luigi game where they have an unlikely alliance with Wario and Waluigi making up the X and Y buttons on the controller.

 

[NintenRob]

Ive always wanted a Mario and Luigi game where they have an unlikely alliance with Wario and Waluigi making up the X and Y buttons on the controller.

I'm the opposite, I wanted Wario and Waluigi as the bad guys (or perhaps a more popple like role) With boss fight involving them using the Bros attacks against you.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

I just want a new Mario & Luigi game.

 

[Metal Shop X]

Speaking of Mario, if Geno get in, should his victory dance from the remake be a taunt or a victory pose?

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Speaking of Mario, if Geno get in, should his victory dance from the remake be a taunt or a victory pose?

I'd be disappointed if it wasn't.

 

[Metal Shop X]

I'd be disappointed if it wasn't.

So I'm taking "should be a taunt and a victory pose" from this.

Which like, I think little Mac as a taunt that ressemble one of his victory pose. So it wouldn't be unprecedented if true.

 

[NintenRob]

So I'm taking "should be a taunt and a victory pose" from this.

Which like, I think little Mac as a taunt that ressemble one of his victory pose. So it wouldn't be unprecedented if true.

Banjo has his bow as both victory and taunt

 

[Hadokeyblade]

Speaking of Mario, if Geno get in, should his victory dance from the remake be a taunt or a victory pose?

Along with the victory music on loop like Cloud and Joker have of course.

 

[Scrimblo Bimblo]

The competition to become the next Mario character is going to be tight, as everyone's chances have raised.

Toad: got his own game, got a front-stage role in the Mario movie, got in Wonder, and I suspect he scored decently high in the Ballot since he received one of the "consolation prizes" (being more prominent in Peach's moveset + he got a DLC Mii costume in Smash 4 like many other popularly requested characters);

Geno: finally became relevant, right as the next Smash's development is starting, and right after the more "universal" Square characters have pretty much all gotten in;

Waluigi: exploded in fan demand during Ultimate's lifespan.

Then again all three have been missing the boat pretty consistently, so... Paper Mario's stocks I think have lowered quite a bit. It's a shame, if the series featured original characters it would have gotten in Smash as far back as Brawl imo. He's still a good choice, but unlike the other three it feels like he hasn't really seen much growth recently.
I think that, personally, I'd go with Toad. Little guy is uber iconic, and I think he has managed to cross the line from "popular" to "beloved" recently. There's a ton of stuff you can do with his moveset, the character has a lot of history. It's also a way to bring in Toadette too, who has also lived through an actually fairly quick rise to prominence. Though you can't go wrong with any Mario character.

If there's cuts they need to keep Piranha Plant though, the little dude is just too fun.

 

[DarthEnderX]

I don't know if Waluigi is a lock but at this point he's the Mario character you'd put your money on if you didn't want to make a risky bet (including the option "no Mario newcomer"), because it paying off seems pretty likely.

Personally, I think Captain Toad and Geno are both more likely than Waluigi right now.