So, about the Peach MU. It's winnable if the Peach is playing it sub-optimal. ICs can pretty much punish every of Peach's moves but fair with wobbling if you get the read. However, Peach doesn't need to do anything besides FC fair. It works at any %, is safe on shield, can be used to split up ICs, and it can be used to KO Nana at very low risk. The best way to beat Peach's FC fair with others characters is usually dash dancing into punish (grab) or wave dash back into punish. ICs can do this as well, but because Nana can't dash dance and her wave dash is delayed, she usually gets hit by the fair even though your spacing with Popo is on point and you get the punish (grab). In most MUs this can work out for ICs because Nana will usually get back to Popo fastly if hit at lower % so that you can get a big punish. However, because the fair knocks Nana into the ground at every % (and because Nana doesn't tech) she won't be back in time to help Popo. This means that you'll have to punish with Sopo everytime you punish the fair which at best is around 30% damage on Peach. You'll have to do this many times just in order to get a single stock, and Peach just needs to land a single fair to KO Nana.
The above means that playing defensively against Peach is a losing battle because you'll have to win way more spacing wars than the Peach in order to take a stock. However, playing offensively isn't much better because you can't approach Peach while she's floating at certain height. It's possible for the Peach player to stop any attempt at wave dashing in on your part with FC fair. Sure you can get some damage with some well timed aeriales, but once again you'll have to do this many times in order to take 1 stock. Peach needs just one read on your approach to KO Nana off a fair. Ice block and blizzard desyncs don't work either because Peach can just float over them and punish with fair.
However, if the Peach player likes to do other stuff than FC fair then the MU becomes very winnable. Peach mains who are not familiar with the MU and therefore try to play it like any other MU are beatable because it's possible to punish hard, and luckily only a few Peach players know the MU. Armada and M2K are to this day the only players I have watched playing the MU right. I really can't see Wobbles beat these guys in a set even though it might be one of his best MUs. It really is the closest you get to a winnable MU among the high/top tier characters. Without her fair I think the MU would be in ICs' favour, but with it the ICs has to be a much better player in order to win if the Peach player plays the MU right.
I still think there's hope, however, but it comes down to stuff like platform camping with Ice blocks and playing for the time out. I also have some very specific desyncs that I think could be used to beat the fair, but it needs more testing.
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Alright. Sure, you can fight Peach while she's floating and hit her with stuff like full jump aerial. This isn't too hard and I do it quite often against Peach to get in some damage, even against Armada when I get a read. However, the problem is that the punish game is so much in Peach's favor that this is a losing battle for the ICs player in the long run. If two players who are more or less even in skill lvl fight each other in this match up then the ICs player needs to win way more spacing wars than the Peach player to win a stock (given that the Peach player's punish game has reached a certain lvl). ICs has to commit hard to the approach each time they decide to fight Peach in the air. If the Peach players reacts correctly or get a read on one of these approaches and punish with fair then Nana should be out. The Peach player doesn't need to commit as hard when she goes in with fair or tries to intercept an incoming approach because FC fair has so little lag. Sure, once she whiffs her aerial and she's on the ground you should be able to punish her, but once again you have to know Peach's next move. When I play against Armada he usually goes for a jab, down-smash or a roll/spotdodge if he whiffs a fair really close to me (otherwise he will just jump up again and start to float if I'm not in a position to punish him). Each of these moves can be punished, but you can't cover them all at the same time with ICs.
Just for heck of it, here is
Fly v Armada from Evo to demonstrate what I'm talking about.
If you watch my
set against Paju from BEAST4 you'll see that I get most of my KOs because of wobbling by baiting and punishing a d-smash or because Paju decides to battle on the ground. If Paju had decided not to fight me on the ground and float camp more then I wouldn't be able to land those grabs and it would be so much harder for me to take stocks off him.
