So, there's been a lot of momentum towards the movement to ban Metaknight lately. REGARDLESS OF OPINION ON THE ISSUE, I wanted to theorize and postulate what I think the Brawl tourney scene will look like once Metaknight is removed. It's possible he may never be banned and this will never be proven or disproven, so let's not make this into a "should/shouldn't MK be banned" thread.
At the bottom of this thread, I will cover my personal opinion (and who I am, for those that don't know). That part will be clearly marked, so that you can completely skip it if you will, as it is irrelevant.
The removal of Metaknight from the competitive roster leaves a big gaping hole at the top of the tier list. Generally, Snake is the commonly accepted #2 character on most lists, but it is not necessarily safe to assume that the list will simply bump up and Snake will take his place. This is not the nature of a competitive game, in which matchups form a sort of tangled web.
In fact, I personally theorize that the two characters that will benefit most from Metaknight's removal are Game & Watch and Marth, followed up by ROB, then DK, and perhaps Toon Link and Snake.
Consider the following. Currently, as far as I am aware, once Metaknight is removed, these character's matchups will look something like this:
( (?) is places where the character might be considered slight advantage instead of full counter, or I'm not sure).
Snake is countered by:
DDD, Donkey Kong, Wario, Falco
Snake goes even with:
Pikachu, Diddy, Peach, ZSS, Samus, Pit, Toon Link, ROB, maybe more I can't think of right now
Game & Watch is countered by:
Toon Link, Marth, Snake (?)
Game & Watch goes even with:
Olimar, DK, Diddy (?)
Marth is counted by:
ROB, Snake (?)
Marth goes even with:
Like half the cast
Game & Watch
Of these three, Game & Watch seems to be the best choice. Snake counters a lot of characters, but in turn is countered by a lot of characters. Meanwhile, Game & Watch has only 2-3 counters and 3-4 neutral matchups, having the advantage on about 70% of the cast- and much like Metaknight, he has no bad stages.
This would make Game & Watch the new Metaknight, but not as bad, because you CAN counterpick him.
Marth
Out of all of these characters, Marth has, at a high level the least amount of bad matchups, but the largest amount of neutral matchups. The removal of MK, Marth's worse matchup, does wonders for him, making him the character in the game with the least amount of disadvantaged matchups. Of course, he has a ton of neutral matchups, but he's the "safest" choice, and possibly the only character in the game with which you will not need to develop a secondary character to cover your bad matchups (however, you not have advantages nearly as often as MK, and can be stage-counterpicked and gimped).
In the sense of being the only character in the game for which you do not need to worry about truly bad matchups, Marth is, in a way, also the new Metaknight. But once again, not as bad, because he's got tons of neutral matchups and several bad stages.
Snake
Finally, Snake. Marth has been held back because of Metaknight being a tough matchup, but Snake has, so far, been the closest thing to an even matchup that Metaknight has in the cast. The removal of Metaknight doesn't help him nearly as much as it helps everyone else, and this, IMO, means Snake is no longer the 2nd best character.
However, the fact that Snake may counter (or at least has an advantage on) Game & Watch, and has an advantage on Marth, means that he still is a very viable pick in tournament, and we will see a lot of Snakes post-MK.
Greater Diversity
As Game & Watch, Snake, and Marth become the big three, it gives rise to a whole new host of characters. Falco remains important as before (slight disadvantage to G&W, advantage over Snake, neutral with Marth), as does Dedede as a Snake counter with decent matchups against the other two.
Donkey Kong arises, having a neutral matchup against Game & Watch and Marth and acting as a solid Snake counter (see what I did there?). With that comes increased Dedede importance, as Dedede counters Donkey Kong.
Toon Link may increase in popularity. He runs even or may have a slight advantage against Snake and Marth (I hear conflicting reports on this, but I know Chip has no problems against Snakes), and ***** G&W for breakfast. However, Toon Link already did all of these things AND had a not-horrible Metaknight matchup (at least judging from Chip's WA tourney rankings), and he's not doing so well in tournies right now, so perhaps this theory will not hold true. But it would seem to me that increased G&W popularity would result in increased Toon Link popularity (as G&W's worst matchup), and since he does well against the other two big characters, many might just stick with him.
ROB seems almost certain to rise in importance. As one of Marth's only true bad matchups in a post-MK world, anyone who has trouble with the Marth matchup will be looking in to him. The fact that he breaks even with Snake doesn't hurt his case. ROB's only problem: his absolute worst matchups, which are horribly skewed to the point where he hardly has a chance, are Metaknight and G&W. The removal of Metaknight will be a gigantic blessing to ROB- but the increasing popularity of G&W will be a pain. Still- even if the G&W population doubled overnight, the removal of MK will have helped ROB more than hurt him, and more Marth's means more easy matchups for ROB mains.
What of the mid tiers? There's a number of characters that have been made tournament unviable almost just because of Metaknight. A lot of the mid tier characters become competitively viable, and in fact, without Metaknight, even Sheik becomes usable (as Sheik excels at combos and edgeguarding, and MK's ridiculous speed and ungimpability just destroy her). Olimar grows in popularity as he is able to engage Game & Watch and Snake.
Peach is in trouble due to the abundance of Game & Watch and Falcos, but the increase in Donkey Kongs, Dededes, Olimars, Diddys, and the middle tier (almost all of whom she completely dominates), and complete elimination of her generally-accepted second-or-third-worst matchup (MK) should help her overall.
And that trend continues down through the entire middle tier. Almost all of the mid tier characters become more viable with MK's elimination, because they have much more decent matchups on the high tier characters. The elimination of MK especially helps Fox, his worst matchup by far. Some characters, like Mario, will struggle heavily through the increase in Game & Watches, but if they pick up a good G&W counterpick, they should be able to do well.
The low tier will remain about the same, or possibly worse. Yoshi, who's crown jewel is being able to fight Metaknight through his chaingrab, loses one of his most important assets- an edge on the most commonly played character in the game- while one of Yoshi's peers, Samus, will likely do better with how common Snakes will become. I think Ganondorf does better against MK than he does against G&W and Snake, which hurts him too- I think Link will rise above Ganondorf for this. But none of the low tier characters will rise above low tier.
Summary
This is obviously all in theory. But I strongly feel that the removal of Metaknight will result in a lot more variety, as a lot more characters will suddenly become competitively viable as characters they counter become more prevelant. And the focus will move from trying to find ways to counter Metaknight (which seem to be fruitless) to finding ways to counter G&W- and unlike MK, which seems to get better as the metagame matures, I believe we will find more and better ways to counter G&W's Bair and other significant advantages.
--------------
About Me
I'm Praxis. I entered the competitive community in January, so I realize I am technically a "Brawl noob". In fear of being perceived such, I have actually rather actively avoided posting on Smashboards. If I can't contribute meaningfully, why scrub up the place, right? Rather, I mainly participated on AllIsBrawl, making my share of noob mistakes there. Since the majority of the WA community uses AiB's superior tourney organization system for almost everything, I wasn't missing out on any big events. I've been extremely active on AiB, so many may know me from there.
Since I've entered the competitive scene, I've made it a strong point to be a student of the game, trying to learn as much as possible. About 4-5 months ago I began posting in the Peach character chat here on smashboards, which has made up the majority of my post count here. But I've lurked in the rest of the boards and have tried my best to learn as much as possible, especially competitive theory, and about previous Smash games (Melee especially). I've studied Sirlin's writings pretty extensively on competitive gaming as well.
Unlike many Sirlin fans, I don't take it as gospel, but as a very well written and interesting perspective. Frankly, I disagree in the full adoption of that mentality. It's great if your intention is to make money, but that was never my intention- I play this game for the enjoyment factor. I don't try to force others to follow made-up honor rules as is typical of a scrub- but from a Sirlin-esque competitive gamer perspective, I am indeed a scrub, because I refuse to pick up Metaknight (by doing so, REDUCING my odds of winning) simply because I have more "fun" playing Peach.
My Opinion on the Metaknight Ban Question
I've read all of the arguments, both ways. I think my favorite writeup has been by Overswarm, the top post on this page:
http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?t=197057&page=335
Essentially, with the current state of the high end competitive scene, Metaknight has no bad matchups, no neutral matchups, and no poor stages. He has a nearly neutral matchup in Snake, but no matter what situation he is in, he always has the advantage. Picking any character but Metaknight puts you at a disadvantage and reduces your chance of winning, and learning any other character, if you intend to win, is not worth the effort.
I'm fine with dealing with the occasional Metaknight, but as more and more people around me switch to Metaknight, the game becomes less fun. I'm put in a situation where I'm always at a disadvantage, and the only way to have a reasonable shot at placing well is to join them and play a character I don't enjoy, OR be regarded as that Peach player that doesn't place as time passes and more MK's arise. Sure, I could secondary Metaknight, but pretty soon I'd realize that it's ALWAYS better to pick him. If I go against a ROB, in which I have a 60:40 advantage as Peach- why should I pick Peach when my MK has a 70:30 advantage? The only situation I'd ever use Peach would be Olimar.
So, let's remove personal bias. Completely ignoring the fact that I can't beat the two best MK's in the state. There are two choices: stick with Peach and have "fun", but not that much fun because the majority of my opponents will be the same matchup over and over; or switch to MK, have less fun, but place higher (potentially making money).
From a Sirlin-purist perspective, this is fine. If everyone plays MK, then everyone is even, everyone is maximizing their chances of victory, and the more skilled player wins.
I would not enjoy playing this game in such a manner. And regardless of the fact that "fun" is not a usable measurement, it is an important factor, and the reason many of us play this game. Diversity means nothing in a Sirlin-purist perspective, but greater diversity means a better, more enjoyable game, and one I would continue to play even if I were to never win.
I did not care about Metaknight (despite having trouble with the matchup) until the day I played four Metaknight's in a row at a tournament. The little jerk sucks the fun out of this game I love.
ANYWAY- I feel I've reached the point that I can contribute to Smashboards intelligently, and hope to be around for some time. Feel free to rip this entire post apart if you disagree with anything- that's what discussions are for ^_^
Hello all! Thanks for reading.
(P.S. who do I have to kill to get to moderate the Peach boards? I check it about a half dozen times a day on weekdays, and we could really use more active moderation with how out of date the stickies tend to get and two certain members that are always fighting with each other.)
-------------------
tl;dr version: I recommend reading everything that's not in between the ---- brackets ----, but if you really don't want to read...
I predict G&W, Marth, and Snake as the big three most viable characters, and a lot more other viable characters as counters to them- and a ton of mid-tier characters rising up as viable due to their ability to counter Snake, go even with Marth, and counter some of Snake's counters.
I'd love to hear what other people predict as well. Thanks for reading and commenting!
At the bottom of this thread, I will cover my personal opinion (and who I am, for those that don't know). That part will be clearly marked, so that you can completely skip it if you will, as it is irrelevant.
The removal of Metaknight from the competitive roster leaves a big gaping hole at the top of the tier list. Generally, Snake is the commonly accepted #2 character on most lists, but it is not necessarily safe to assume that the list will simply bump up and Snake will take his place. This is not the nature of a competitive game, in which matchups form a sort of tangled web.
In fact, I personally theorize that the two characters that will benefit most from Metaknight's removal are Game & Watch and Marth, followed up by ROB, then DK, and perhaps Toon Link and Snake.
Consider the following. Currently, as far as I am aware, once Metaknight is removed, these character's matchups will look something like this:
( (?) is places where the character might be considered slight advantage instead of full counter, or I'm not sure).
Snake is countered by:
DDD, Donkey Kong, Wario, Falco
Snake goes even with:
Pikachu, Diddy, Peach, ZSS, Samus, Pit, Toon Link, ROB, maybe more I can't think of right now
Game & Watch is countered by:
Toon Link, Marth, Snake (?)
Game & Watch goes even with:
Olimar, DK, Diddy (?)
Marth is counted by:
ROB, Snake (?)
Marth goes even with:
Like half the cast
Game & Watch
Of these three, Game & Watch seems to be the best choice. Snake counters a lot of characters, but in turn is countered by a lot of characters. Meanwhile, Game & Watch has only 2-3 counters and 3-4 neutral matchups, having the advantage on about 70% of the cast- and much like Metaknight, he has no bad stages.
This would make Game & Watch the new Metaknight, but not as bad, because you CAN counterpick him.
Marth
Out of all of these characters, Marth has, at a high level the least amount of bad matchups, but the largest amount of neutral matchups. The removal of MK, Marth's worse matchup, does wonders for him, making him the character in the game with the least amount of disadvantaged matchups. Of course, he has a ton of neutral matchups, but he's the "safest" choice, and possibly the only character in the game with which you will not need to develop a secondary character to cover your bad matchups (however, you not have advantages nearly as often as MK, and can be stage-counterpicked and gimped).
In the sense of being the only character in the game for which you do not need to worry about truly bad matchups, Marth is, in a way, also the new Metaknight. But once again, not as bad, because he's got tons of neutral matchups and several bad stages.
Snake
Finally, Snake. Marth has been held back because of Metaknight being a tough matchup, but Snake has, so far, been the closest thing to an even matchup that Metaknight has in the cast. The removal of Metaknight doesn't help him nearly as much as it helps everyone else, and this, IMO, means Snake is no longer the 2nd best character.
However, the fact that Snake may counter (or at least has an advantage on) Game & Watch, and has an advantage on Marth, means that he still is a very viable pick in tournament, and we will see a lot of Snakes post-MK.
Greater Diversity
As Game & Watch, Snake, and Marth become the big three, it gives rise to a whole new host of characters. Falco remains important as before (slight disadvantage to G&W, advantage over Snake, neutral with Marth), as does Dedede as a Snake counter with decent matchups against the other two.
Donkey Kong arises, having a neutral matchup against Game & Watch and Marth and acting as a solid Snake counter (see what I did there?). With that comes increased Dedede importance, as Dedede counters Donkey Kong.
Toon Link may increase in popularity. He runs even or may have a slight advantage against Snake and Marth (I hear conflicting reports on this, but I know Chip has no problems against Snakes), and ***** G&W for breakfast. However, Toon Link already did all of these things AND had a not-horrible Metaknight matchup (at least judging from Chip's WA tourney rankings), and he's not doing so well in tournies right now, so perhaps this theory will not hold true. But it would seem to me that increased G&W popularity would result in increased Toon Link popularity (as G&W's worst matchup), and since he does well against the other two big characters, many might just stick with him.
ROB seems almost certain to rise in importance. As one of Marth's only true bad matchups in a post-MK world, anyone who has trouble with the Marth matchup will be looking in to him. The fact that he breaks even with Snake doesn't hurt his case. ROB's only problem: his absolute worst matchups, which are horribly skewed to the point where he hardly has a chance, are Metaknight and G&W. The removal of Metaknight will be a gigantic blessing to ROB- but the increasing popularity of G&W will be a pain. Still- even if the G&W population doubled overnight, the removal of MK will have helped ROB more than hurt him, and more Marth's means more easy matchups for ROB mains.
What of the mid tiers? There's a number of characters that have been made tournament unviable almost just because of Metaknight. A lot of the mid tier characters become competitively viable, and in fact, without Metaknight, even Sheik becomes usable (as Sheik excels at combos and edgeguarding, and MK's ridiculous speed and ungimpability just destroy her). Olimar grows in popularity as he is able to engage Game & Watch and Snake.
Peach is in trouble due to the abundance of Game & Watch and Falcos, but the increase in Donkey Kongs, Dededes, Olimars, Diddys, and the middle tier (almost all of whom she completely dominates), and complete elimination of her generally-accepted second-or-third-worst matchup (MK) should help her overall.
And that trend continues down through the entire middle tier. Almost all of the mid tier characters become more viable with MK's elimination, because they have much more decent matchups on the high tier characters. The elimination of MK especially helps Fox, his worst matchup by far. Some characters, like Mario, will struggle heavily through the increase in Game & Watches, but if they pick up a good G&W counterpick, they should be able to do well.
The low tier will remain about the same, or possibly worse. Yoshi, who's crown jewel is being able to fight Metaknight through his chaingrab, loses one of his most important assets- an edge on the most commonly played character in the game- while one of Yoshi's peers, Samus, will likely do better with how common Snakes will become. I think Ganondorf does better against MK than he does against G&W and Snake, which hurts him too- I think Link will rise above Ganondorf for this. But none of the low tier characters will rise above low tier.
Summary
This is obviously all in theory. But I strongly feel that the removal of Metaknight will result in a lot more variety, as a lot more characters will suddenly become competitively viable as characters they counter become more prevelant. And the focus will move from trying to find ways to counter Metaknight (which seem to be fruitless) to finding ways to counter G&W- and unlike MK, which seems to get better as the metagame matures, I believe we will find more and better ways to counter G&W's Bair and other significant advantages.
--------------
About Me
I'm Praxis. I entered the competitive community in January, so I realize I am technically a "Brawl noob". In fear of being perceived such, I have actually rather actively avoided posting on Smashboards. If I can't contribute meaningfully, why scrub up the place, right? Rather, I mainly participated on AllIsBrawl, making my share of noob mistakes there. Since the majority of the WA community uses AiB's superior tourney organization system for almost everything, I wasn't missing out on any big events. I've been extremely active on AiB, so many may know me from there.
Since I've entered the competitive scene, I've made it a strong point to be a student of the game, trying to learn as much as possible. About 4-5 months ago I began posting in the Peach character chat here on smashboards, which has made up the majority of my post count here. But I've lurked in the rest of the boards and have tried my best to learn as much as possible, especially competitive theory, and about previous Smash games (Melee especially). I've studied Sirlin's writings pretty extensively on competitive gaming as well.
Unlike many Sirlin fans, I don't take it as gospel, but as a very well written and interesting perspective. Frankly, I disagree in the full adoption of that mentality. It's great if your intention is to make money, but that was never my intention- I play this game for the enjoyment factor. I don't try to force others to follow made-up honor rules as is typical of a scrub- but from a Sirlin-esque competitive gamer perspective, I am indeed a scrub, because I refuse to pick up Metaknight (by doing so, REDUCING my odds of winning) simply because I have more "fun" playing Peach.
My Opinion on the Metaknight Ban Question
I've read all of the arguments, both ways. I think my favorite writeup has been by Overswarm, the top post on this page:
http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?t=197057&page=335
Essentially, with the current state of the high end competitive scene, Metaknight has no bad matchups, no neutral matchups, and no poor stages. He has a nearly neutral matchup in Snake, but no matter what situation he is in, he always has the advantage. Picking any character but Metaknight puts you at a disadvantage and reduces your chance of winning, and learning any other character, if you intend to win, is not worth the effort.
I'm fine with dealing with the occasional Metaknight, but as more and more people around me switch to Metaknight, the game becomes less fun. I'm put in a situation where I'm always at a disadvantage, and the only way to have a reasonable shot at placing well is to join them and play a character I don't enjoy, OR be regarded as that Peach player that doesn't place as time passes and more MK's arise. Sure, I could secondary Metaknight, but pretty soon I'd realize that it's ALWAYS better to pick him. If I go against a ROB, in which I have a 60:40 advantage as Peach- why should I pick Peach when my MK has a 70:30 advantage? The only situation I'd ever use Peach would be Olimar.
So, let's remove personal bias. Completely ignoring the fact that I can't beat the two best MK's in the state. There are two choices: stick with Peach and have "fun", but not that much fun because the majority of my opponents will be the same matchup over and over; or switch to MK, have less fun, but place higher (potentially making money).
From a Sirlin-purist perspective, this is fine. If everyone plays MK, then everyone is even, everyone is maximizing their chances of victory, and the more skilled player wins.
I would not enjoy playing this game in such a manner. And regardless of the fact that "fun" is not a usable measurement, it is an important factor, and the reason many of us play this game. Diversity means nothing in a Sirlin-purist perspective, but greater diversity means a better, more enjoyable game, and one I would continue to play even if I were to never win.
I did not care about Metaknight (despite having trouble with the matchup) until the day I played four Metaknight's in a row at a tournament. The little jerk sucks the fun out of this game I love.
ANYWAY- I feel I've reached the point that I can contribute to Smashboards intelligently, and hope to be around for some time. Feel free to rip this entire post apart if you disagree with anything- that's what discussions are for ^_^
Hello all! Thanks for reading.
(P.S. who do I have to kill to get to moderate the Peach boards? I check it about a half dozen times a day on weekdays, and we could really use more active moderation with how out of date the stickies tend to get and two certain members that are always fighting with each other.)
-------------------
tl;dr version: I recommend reading everything that's not in between the ---- brackets ----, but if you really don't want to read...
I predict G&W, Marth, and Snake as the big three most viable characters, and a lot more other viable characters as counters to them- and a ton of mid-tier characters rising up as viable due to their ability to counter Snake, go even with Marth, and counter some of Snake's counters.
I'd love to hear what other people predict as well. Thanks for reading and commenting!
lol, as for the topic? I can't really say I disagree. I used to be in the "No johns noob, if you can't beat a MK you're terrible" crowd, but as time has gone on and we've all played the game more and more, I absolutely agree that metaknight is hurting brawl more than he will ever help it. 
