All newcomers were leaked along Little Mac, Pac Man and the Miis

[smashbro29]

That's the first time I've gotten a logical response to that. Most people just complain about how not knowing everything about your opponent somehow ruins the game.

Yeah well now you know why they're probably banned.

 

[MatthewSwain9]

But if you guys look on the page for smashbros it says that all characters like mario and DK have interchangable B moves so its not just the Miis which seems OP as balls

 

[Kamiko]

But if you guys look on the page for smashbros it says that all characters like mario and DK have interchangable B moves so its not just the Miis which seems OP as balls

Didn't we already know that from the E3 direct?

 

[MatthewSwain9]

Didn't we already know that from the E3 direct?

I guess i was late to the party :/

 

[SuperSmashBrosBeforeHoes]

I love looking back in older threads to see all the people with eggs on their faces now. Pages 13 and 14 were definitely my favourites!

 

[PSIGuy]

Oops, meant this for another thread. Still, I wonder what character will have to be revealed for the leak to be completely confirmed? People act like all the characters were predictable; it's easy in hindsight to say "obviously they were going to put in X".

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Well rumor has it shulk is locked for tomorrow

Because sal got a email saying enjoy shulk tomorrow.

 

[SuperSmashBrosBeforeHoes]

Well rumor has it shulk is locked for tomorrow

Because sal got a email saying enjoy shulk tomorrow.

Tis true -.-

 

[Erimir]

Well, this leak can finally be put to rest. It is, at best, outdated and somewhat inaccurate information.

 

[RomanceDawn]

Well, this leak can finally be put to rest. It is, at best, outdated and somewhat inaccurate information.

But what happens if Shulk and Chorus Kids are confirmed? Seems to me the leaker knows some things, probably even outdated but certainly doesn't know everything.

 

[Erimir]

Well, then I will say that it was outdated and mostly accurate information.

But at that point, he will have little relevance to speculation since all of the characters he talked about will have been covered, except Lucas.

 

[Fenrir VII]

Spoiler

Working theory. Take a step back and consider this/shoot it down, please.

1. Leaker had access to pre-E3 2013 information somehow. Knew Megaman, WFT, and Villager were coming, and knew how hard those would be to guess. (this doesn't exactly explain "Animal Crossing Guy", but bear with me)
2. Leaker either tries to cover himself, or just wants to screw with us and throws on 3 very likely other chars that won't be revealed at the event.
3. Leaker didn't have any information before the Smash Direct, but knew (like the rest of us) that a char or 2 was going to be revealed. So he puts a list of 4 more very likely chars with 1 oddball (again either to screw with us or cover himself). This would explain the general "Pokemon from X/Y" placeholder. So now he has a list of 8 unconfirmed chars, 7 of which form about the most likely "net" of chars that is possible, for reasons I've posted before.
4. Leaker had access (as did some other people I've heard) to the pre-2014 E3 press release and actively changed the original Mii name to "Mii Fighters" (I can't think of a reason their name would change in development if they had ever been planned to be shown at E3 2013). Also saw 2 other chars on his list to be revealed, so only added unprovable conjecture about Ness/Lucas (won't be disproven if they are both cut or both revealed).

This, imo, covers how the original leak occurred, and how it could still be at least partly a guess. Essentially, the leaker is possibly some form of an advertising person, hacker, or related professional that has known about the e3 material, but is not directly part of the game design.

If I'm wrong about the Smash Direct, and the leaker did have some sort of info about Smash Run, it's possible he saw the Rhythm Heaven enemy in footage that we didn't see, and added "Chorus Men" in... again as a guess.


I think this is an entirely possible explanation to everything that has occurred, and justifies how he missed Rosalina, didn't get Greninja's name (but got most others right), and why it has always felt like an incredibly broad guess after the first 3, to me. If this IS the case, then Shulk, Chrom, and Chorus Men aren't locked in for this still... The Rhythm Heaven enemy in Smash Run is a potential clue to a series rep, but nothing is set on the truth of that or who would rep.

For this reason, I am asking this board to not be too quick to forgive this leak if somebody OTHER than Chrom or Chorus Men were revealed to rep their games.

^ my post in another thread after E3 about how this leak could have been ~40% true and the rest guessed. I still think this is what happened. The last paragraph are my current thoughts on the matter.

"For this reason, I am asking this board to not be too quick to forgive this leak if somebody OTHER than Chrom or Chorus Men were revealed to rep their games"

 

[DakotaBonez]

Lol, what if Shulk was revealed later on today?

(also isn't it possible that Sal or his tipper was just having fun with us?)

 

[OddCrow]

Lol, what if Shulk was revealed later on today?

(also isn't it possible that Sal or his tipper was just having fun with us?)

Won't happen, and no.

 

[Nintendotard]

Well rumor has it shulk is locked for tomorrow

Because sal got a email saying enjoy shulk tomorrow.

Really? Sounds weird

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Game over time to shut down this rumor

He was wrong chrom is not playable.

 

[κomıc]

Game over time to shut down this rumor

He was wrong chrom is not playable.

It wasn't a matter of being right or wrong. How would you feel if your teacher flunk you because you got 1 question wrong out of 10? That's the reaction you're having.

It is beyond obvious that this "insider" was part of the team in some form and that the information is dated. Let's tie in this:

The final roster was already formulated 2 years back. Pokemon from X/Y was a spot reserved since at that time, the team really had no access to any documentation or drafts for a new Pokemon until it was requested. Hence, why the Gematsu leak had "Pokemon from X/Y" listed. Because this information pre-dates 2013.

And thus, this is Game Development. Content are cut, rearranged and all that jazz.

This isn't anything new and this leads credence not to what characters are in the game entirely, but the legitimacy of this source Gematsu and Sal Romano are in contact with.

Thank You.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

It wasn't a matter of being right or wrong. How would you feel if your teacher flunk you because you got 1 question wrong out of 10? That's the reaction you're having.

It is beyond obvious that this "insider" was part of the team in some form and that the information is dated. Let's tie in this:

The final roster was already formulated 2 years back. Pokemon from X/Y was a spot reserved since at that time, the team really had no access to any documentation or drafts for a new Pokemon until it was requested. Hence, why the Gematsu leak had "Pokemon from X/Y" listed. Because this information pre-dates 2013.

And thus, this is Game Development. Content are cut, rearranged and all that jazz.

This isn't anything new and this leads credence not to what characters are in the game entirely, but the legitimacy of this source Gematsu and Sal Romano are in contact with.

Thank You.

Oh yea i mean shulk and the chorus men are not toast its just the leak is toast.

He will be back but its going to be much harder to believe due to this one being busted (not shulk nor chorus men.) (ok kindof chorus men.)

 

[Joalro]

It wasn't a matter of being right or wrong. How would you feel if your teacher flunk you because you got 1 question wrong out of 10? That's the reaction you're having.

It is beyond obvious that this "insider" was part of the team in some form and that the information is dated. Let's tie in this:

The final roster was already formulated 2 years back. Pokemon from X/Y was a spot reserved since at that time, the team really had no access to any documentation or drafts for a new Pokemon until it was requested. Hence, why the Gematsu leak had "Pokemon from X/Y" listed. Because this information pre-dates 2013.

And thus, this is Game Development. Content are cut, rearranged and all that jazz.

This isn't anything new and this leads credence not to what characters are in the game entirely, but the legitimacy of this source Gematsu and Sal Romano are in contact with.

Thank You.

There are a few issues now with the leak, though. Firstly, regardless of whether it's false or outdated, the end result is the same. Nothing in the leak can be fully believed. To me, going from Chrom to Lucina + Robin is a pretty major change, something that must have happened VERY early in development, which means that a lot could have changed between when the Sal leaker got his info, and when the cast was finally decided.

Secondly, some of the leak MUST be recent information. The third leak specifically mentions that DLC is going to be included. However, in an interview with Sakurai he stated that while DLC is possible, they had no plans for it at that time. If the Sal leaker was using old information, he could not possibly have confirmation about DLC.

Do I think that the leak was faked all along? I don't know, but at this point I discount the leak completely.

 

[QuickRat]

During E3: "LIFE'S AWESOME! LEAK IS TRUE! LOVE SHULK!".

Today: "LIFE'S AWESOME! LEAK IS FALSE! LOVE RIDLEY!".

Sometimes I think Smash community is pretty exagerated.

 

[κomıc]

There are a few issues now with the leak, though. Firstly, regardless of whether it's false or outdated, the end result is the same. Nothing in the leak can be fully believed. To me, going from Chrom to Lucina + Robin is a pretty major change, something that must have happened VERY early in development, which means that a lot could have changed between when the Sal leaker got his info, and when the cast was finally decided.

Secondly, some of the leak MUST be recent information. The third leak specifically mentions that DLC is going to be included. However, in an interview with Sakurai he stated that while DLC is possible, they had no plans for it at that time. If the Sal leaker was using old information, he could not possibly have confirmation about DLC.

Do I think that the leak was faked all along? I don't know, but at this point I discount the leak completely.

It's far from false. There's too much in it's favor to not believe or disregard. You may not believe all of what the leak has but at the end of the day, it had a majority of information on point.

There really isn't that much disrepency between the leaker and final product- hell, Chrom's daughter Lucina is playable. There's a strong correlation between the leak and this trailer regardless. I wouldn't be surprised if they chose Lucina over Chrom since there isn't much they can do with another blue-haired hero who has a build similar to Marth. Whatever the case may be, they chose a female protagonist. As for Rosalina and Robin, the insider probably was unaware or had since the left the time before everything was made final and we're winding down on newcomers already as said by Sakurai in Friday.

As for DLC, that isn't really up to Sakurai now at this point- Nintendo is publishing and I think they see potential in sales for using Amiibos to unlock extra content. It's a match made in heaven.

 

[Smash G]

I've said it before and I'll say it again.

Sal's ONLY "evidence" was Wii Fit Trainer. Every single other guess was an obvious choice. If Sal simply GUESSED the Wii Fit Trainer, being such an odd character, it would and was immediately devoured by the fans as FACT. When it could have been a good guess. It was never really evidence and every single other character on Sal's list was again, obvious.
Pacman was predicted as soon as Namco got involved. Pateluna was obvious because it's Sakurai's character and new. Literally every single choice was not at all a hard choice. Literally everything else about his list was unimpressive and should never have been taken as proof of anything.

Then today's test. Shulk. If that was confirmed most everyone would believe Sal. It wasn't. This rumor is dead. Chrom isn't playable is the nail in the coffin. Even if Shulk comes along... getting a playable character WRONG like that is too much.


Yeah, maybe he thought Lucina was Chrom due to not being familiar with FE or thought that Final Smash was playable. Maybe he got good info that was incomplete and inaccurate due to Nintendo changing plans. Maybe he is the Queen of England. It doesn't matter. There was no evidence to begin with besides circumstantial evidence that wouldn't hold up in any court. And now there's evidence AGAINST it.

It's dead unless something crazy happened to make it appear that way. I myself and just saying it's completely dead. Believe what you want...


To the people saying there's still a lot in the leak's favor... ARE YOU KIDDING ME!?
Wii Fit Trainer was the only thing it had to make it believable. 1000000 people guessed that Pacman, Pateluna, etc would be playable. Probably 4 people predicted the Wii Fit Trainer. There is literally nothing impressive about ANY of Sal's predictions besides that lucky guess of the Wii Fit Trainer.
Pokemon from X/Y? Vague much? Continually getting things wrong (Chrom, timing of reveals, etc)? How wrong does this guy have to be before you accept that it's CRAP?

 

[Joalro]

It's far from false. There's too much in it's favor to not believe or disregard. You may not believe all of what the leak has but at the end of the day, it had a majority of information on point.

There really isn't that much disrepency between the leaker and final product- hell, Chrom's daughter Lucina is playable. There's a strong correlation between the leak and this trailer regardless. I wouldn't be surprised if they chose Lucina over Chrom since there isn't much they can do with another blue-haired hero who has a build similar to Marth. Whatever the case may be, they chose a female protagonist. As for Rosalina and Robin, the insider probably was unaware or had since the left the time before everything was made final and we're winding down on newcomers already as said by Sakurai in Friday.

As for DLC, that isn't really up to Sakurai now at this point- Nintendo is publishing and I think they see potential in sales for using Amiibos to unlock extra content. It's a match made in heaven.

If it's outdated, then it's fairly outdated. Which means of the two remaining characters that have been predicted, they may or may not be in it. Also, more characters than mentioned can be in. In other words, the leak is pretty much worseless at this point. Hence you can disregard it. A leak that does not make accurate predictions isn't useful.

Actually, let's look at it in a different way. There are three parts to the Sal leak. The first was 6 characters, Megaman, Pacman, Animal Crossing Villager, Wii Fit Trainer and Little Mac. This was 6/6. Clearly it seems like the leaker knew something.

The second leak was Palutena, which happened, a Pokemon from X and Y, which happened, Chrom, Shulk, Chorus Kids, one of which was de confirmed, two of which we are waiting. So we have one straight up confirmation, one straight up deconfirmation, and Pokemon from X and Y, which is clearly REALLY early on. Plus two Fire Emblem characters instead of one. What I'm saying is that this second leak is clearly different from the first. At the moment it's accuracy is actually at the level of guessing. Especially since Palutena was already leaked. Which means if the second leak is actually a guess, the ONLY success at the moment is "Pokemon from X and Y".

Clearly the leaker knew something, but I don't think the second leak was within his knowledge.


EDIT: @ Smash G , I actually really strongly disagree with you. The first leak had Wii Fit Trainer, who no one guessed, Megaman, who people have been guessing since Melee and always proven wrong, Little Mac, which people have also guessed since Melee, Animal Crossing Villager, which was possible but not really expected. A lot of these characters showed up on people's prediction list, but to get ALL of them is really, really unlikely.

The second leak though is definitely on the order of guessing.

 

[25%Cotton]

It's far from false. There's too much in it's favor to not believe or disregard. You may not believe all of what the leak has but at the end of the day, it had a majority of information on point.

There really isn't that much disrepency between the leaker and final product- hell, Chrom's daughter Lucina is playable. There's a strong correlation between the leak and this trailer regardless. I wouldn't be surprised if they chose Lucina over Chrom since there isn't much they can do with another blue-haired hero who has a build similar to Marth. Whatever the case may be, they chose a female protagonist. As for Rosalina and Robin, the insider probably was unaware or had since the left the time before everything was made final and we're winding down on newcomers already as said by Sakurai in Friday.

As for DLC, that isn't really up to Sakurai now at this point- Nintendo is publishing and I think they see potential in sales for using Amiibos to unlock extra content. It's a match made in heaven.

this isn't some high school level class where you get graded in percents and graduate if you can maintain at least a somewhat favorable average.

this is supposed to be trustworthy intel. getting the times mixed up is one thing, but characters are he heart of the leak. with this announcement, he not only was wrong about one of the characters on his list but was wrong about a character who WASN'T on his list. sure, maybe he had some good intel early on -- it's possible he had some source for what he's gotten right (just for how ridiculous it was that he was able to predict some of the oddest choices). but this brings all of his unconfirmed inclusions/exclusions into question. he could be wrong about any of them.

and that defeats the whole purpose of there being a leak.

 

[Fenrir VII]

You can't say the information is dated and ignore things like A) the 3-step leak (why not just leak them all at once?) and B) the "Enjoy my good friend Shulk" comment yesterday.

Either the guy has known something all along or he hasn't... and the way he's been talking, a simple "oh Sakurai changed his mind" after OBVIOUSLY trying to rile people up with the Shulk comment is ridiculous.

I stick to my original belief. Leaker had e3 info only and guessed on the rest. Nobody should give it any credence other than this without very solid data.

 

[κomıc]

this isn't some high school level class where you get graded in percents and graduate if you can maintain at least a somewhat favorable average.

It is an analogy. And regardless, 8/11 and 1 "wrong" and everyone is hopping on the leak saying it is false? Come on now. And to make matter's worse people justifying by saying "Those others were highly requested!" even though several of them were shot down by Mr. Sakurai himself and Megaman was MiA after the fall of two recent projects. Anyone who followed the industry knew how iffy Capcom was on the Megaman series that many believed his inclusion in Smash Bros was never going to happen even though most wanted to.

 

[Joalro]

It is an analogy. And regardless, 8/11 and 1 "wrong" and everyone is hopping on the leak saying it is false? Come on now. And to make matter's worse people justifying by saying "Those others were highly requested!" even though several of them were shot down by Mr. Sakurai himself and Megaman was MiA after the fall of two recent projects. Anyone who followed the industry knew how iffy Capcom was on the Megaman series that many believed his inclusion in Smash Bros was never going to happen even though most wanted to.

8/11 IS impressive, as I stated earlier. However, once we split it up into leaks, it's actually a score of 6/6 and 2/5. In terms of deconfirmations, the second leak has 1 out of five. Out of the two leaks it got, one of them was already leaked (Palutena) and one was incredibly vague (Pokemon from X and Y). The first leak is valid, the second leak has not in any way been proven.

Further, assuming the first leak was characters intended to be at E3, and the second leak was everyone else, the second leak missed three characters (Rosalina, Lucina, Robin).

So to summarize, first leak is 6/6.

Second leak is one re-leak (from leaked images), one giant net, one completely wrong, three missed characters, and two yet to be seen.

My point is simply, the second leak, as far as usefulness goes, is dead.

 

[andalsoandy]

During E3: "LIFE'S AWESOME! LEAK IS TRUE! LOVE SHULK!".

Today: "LIFE'S AWESOME! LEAK IS FALSE! LOVE RIDLEY!".

Sometimes I think Smash community is pretty exagerated.

Yeah, but that's part of what makes it fun xD

 

[Wander]

I've never really chimed in about this leak but here goes...

I do think that at some point, the leaker had access to valid information. The chances of correctly predicting as many characters as he did, including oddballs like Wii Fit Trainer and characters that Sakurai had shot down like Villager, are too slim for ALL of them to be lucky guesses. It's highly believable that he had access to information early in development that has since become outdated, which would explain not being able to name Greninja and the fumble with Chrom. Perhaps Chrom was intended to be playable but something wasn't working out; he DOES have a fully-finished model. Perhaps the leaker saw a glimpse of the model in progress, or of Robin's FS. It's impossible to know because the leaker never specified how they got the information, or when.

The only two characters left to be confirmed are Shulk and Chorus Kids, and honestly I don't care about either of them. There's already plenty of speculation that supports them being playable, and if they are, great. Maybe once the game is out, the leaker will come forward and explain how they got their information. I just hate how this leak has taken over discussion about this game - everything comes back to "does this deconfirm the leak", "are there more unleaked newcomers planned", etc. If those two characters ARE confirmed, the surprise will be lessened because we're already expecting them. At this point I'm just ready for the game to be out so we can move past the arguing and actually play it.

 

[Jumpman84]

It is an analogy. And regardless, 8/11 and 1 "wrong" and everyone is hopping on the leak saying it is false? Come on now.

Why not? That's how leaks have been dealt with in the past, speaking from experience lurking the old Leaks and Rumors thread. One thing off and the leak is considered fake.

 

[Cactusblah]

I predicted every character so far other than Wii Fit Trainer. I also predicted Lucina or Robin would be in over Chrom, but not both.
Further predictions: Isaac, King K. Rool, and Paper Mario.

 

[Pyra]

You pretty much check in your hardcore card when you start lobbying for miis.

Gross. I didn't want that old thing anyway. It put me in the same club as smelly people.

This thread right now:

 

[SmashChu]

I always love how there is a huge double standard with rumors. Every rumor is fake when something goes wrong EXCEPT Gamatsu.

The simple fact is that he got Chrom wrong. If this guy has insider info, than saying the wrong characters throws everything out. He never had information and it was just lucky guesses. It also explains how:

1. Characters weren't at E3 when he said they would be
2. Rosalina was shown off before any of the E3 characters were
3. "Pokemon from X/Y"
4. How Lucas is still being debated months before release.

It's dead. It's wrong. End of story.

 

[Pazzo.]

Sorry guys. Gematsu's dead, and no further arguing will save it.

 

[κomıc]

8/11 IS impressive, as I stated earlier. However, once we split it up into leaks, it's actually a score of 6/6 and 2/5. In terms of deconfirmations, the second leak has 1 out of five. Out of the two leaks it got, one of them was already leaked (Palutena) and one was incredibly vague (Pokemon from X and Y). The first leak is valid, the second leak has not in any way been proven.

Further, assuming the first leak was characters intended to be at E3, and the second leak was everyone else, the second leak missed three characters (Rosalina, Lucina, Robin).

So to summarize, first leak is 6/6.

Second leak is one re-leak (from leaked images), one giant net, one completely wrong, three missed characters, and two yet to be seen.

My point is simply, the second leak, as far as usefulness goes, is dead.

The second leak isn't dead because there was never a "second" leak. They're the same source and insider and it has been clarified that information was witheld (aka the "leak" for April) since the author even said they were holding on to this until then. The reason why "Pokemon X/Y" was vague was because more than likely the insider was involved somehow during the planning phase. You can even correlate it with this.

The whole leak had outdated information on the final roster hence the 8/11.

I believe the "leak" 100%- maybe not the content of it but the insider itself.

Why not? That's how leaks have been dealt with in the past, speaking from experience lurking the old Leaks and Rumors thread. One thing off and the leak is considered fake.

That's not how it goes. Normally people cross out parts of a leak if the rest lends itself to be true. The only set back to this is that this is dated information that for the most part was accurate.

I always love how there is a huge double standard with rumors. Every rumor is fake when something goes wrong EXCEPT Gamatsu.

The simple fact is that he got Chrom wrong. If this guy has insider info, than saying the wrong characters throws everything out. He never had information and it was just lucky guesses. It also explains how:

1. Characters weren't at E3 when he said they would be
2. Rosalina was shown off before any of the E3 characters were
3. "Pokemon from X/Y"
4. How Lucas is still being debated months before release.

It's dead. It's wrong. End of story.

1. It never said they were going to be at E3.
2. That's one..
3. Because we can now figure out that "Pokemon from X/Y" was the tentative name at the time. Sakurai even talked about reserving a spot for a Pokemon from X/Y this past E3 when someone asked about how characters are chosen.
4. There was no implication that Lucas was still being debated. This information was implied to be "There were debates about it" not "They are now debating".

 

[Joalro]

The second leak isn't dead because there was never a "second" leak. They're the same source and insider and it has been clarified that information was witheld (aka the "leak" for April) since the author even said they were holding on to this until then. The reason why "Pokemon X/Y" was vague was because more than likely the insider was involved somehow during the planning phase. You can even correlate it with this.

The whole leak had outdated information on the final roster hence the 8/11.

I believe the "leak" 100%- maybe not the content of it but the insider itself.

So you don't see a difference between the first leak and the second? The first one where all the names were guessed right, everything is stated exactly with confidence, compared to the second leak, which was much later, names were not completely right (such as Palutena), were clearly uncertain (pokemon x and y) or just plainly wrong. The first leak in style and results is completely different.

My theory is the first leak was what he knew, and the second leak was suspicions he had, which might have been grounded in some knowledge, but he actually didn't know anything.

 

[UberMadman]

I'm going to repost this here, if that's fine.

I really legitimately do think there is still a large amount of credibility in the leak, and I think people are really brushing aside all the facts just because they want it out of the picture. Let's look at the facts, shall we?

What the leak predicted right:

• "Animal Crossing Guy"
• Wii Fit Trainer
• Mega Man
• Little Mac
• "Pokemon from X and Y"
• Mii Fighter
• Palutena
• Pac Man

What the leak did not predict:

• Rosalina
• Lucina
• Robin

What the leak got wrong:

• Chrom
• Shulk being revealed today

Just looking at the facts, clearly the leak has a lot more in its favor than against it. People have been dismissing the leak saying that everything he predicted were "obvious guesses", when, in fact, they weren't. Sakurai outright stated after Brawl that he had no intentions of making a playable Animal Crossing character, yet the leaker guessed him anyways, and was right. A lot of people were actually opposed to Little Mac's, Miis', and Pac Man's inclusion because they believed they had no movepool potential, remember that? And yet those same people later on claimed that they were "easy picks". Oi. And I don't even need to tell you how weird it is he predicted Wii Fit Trainer.

People also throw out the fact that he said "Pokemon from X and Y" as reason against his credibility, but we already know why he did that now. Sakurai said that at the beginning from the game's development they reserved a slot for a new Pokemon but didn't decide upon Greninja until he saw his official concept art, meaning that there was a period of time from the reservation of a new Pokemon slot until Game Freak decided on Greninja's official name that the leaker would not have known Greninja's name if he got his information from early in development. And that last idea is something I want to delve into further.

So right now we know that today's video showed Chrom as part of Robin's Final Smash. This obviously deconfirms that he will be a playable character, but it doesn't deconfirm that he was always intended not to be. Though the roster was decided at the beginning of development, it almost definitely wasn't decided upon in a single night. Characters that were supposed to be in may have been cut or repurposed. After all, we know this wouldn't be the first time in Smash development history that this has happened: several characters were cut from Brawl's final roster, including Mewtwo and Roy, who actually got far enough into development to have received unique fanfares, meaning they weren't cut immediately, and Ridley was initially intended to be an Assist Trophy before being repurposed into a Boss fight. Perhaps this means that early on in Smash's development, Chrom WAS intended to be playable, and got cut in favor of Lucina, but whose model was repurposed to serve in Robin's Final Smash. I can see this being highly likely, as the fact that he stated nothing about the other two Fire Emblem newcomers and the fact that Awakening is a very recent release with a lot of characters makes it seem likely that the Fire Emblem representatives may have been swapped around a lot in early development.

As for how he missed Rosalina, your guess is as good as mine. Keep in mind though, that in between his first leak and his second leak, there were some characters that he didn't initially announce that he announced later. The second leak was released AFTER Rosalina was announced, so it may be very possible that had she not been announced so early, he would have detailed her in his later update.

So that's why I believe there still is plausability in the Gematsu leak. I would say its legitness rides on Shulk and the Chorus Men, as if they are both confirmed still playable, then it most likely was just a Fire Emblem mixup early in development that attributed to the confusion.

Oh, and the predicted Shulk reveal for today? Well, I think Monolith's tweet speaks volumes about that one. Since Tetsuya Takahashi only normally retweets Xenoblade related things, I don't doubt that Sakurai intentionally swapped up the trailers. He's already proven to be very perceptive, I highly doubt he wouldn't have heard about the Gematsu leak and our predictions by now and intentionally threw us a curveball.

 

[SmashChu]

@ UberMadman : It's not a "I got more right than wrong" thing. It's about actually having inside information. Getting everything right means you actual have inside information. Getting some wrong means it's a guess.

 

[UberMadman]

@ UberMadman : It's not a "I got more right than wrong" thing. It's about actually having inside information. Getting everything right means you actual have inside information. Getting some wrong means it's a guess.

Yeah, but my point is that he DIDN'T GUESS. The roster got changed around. The Fire Emblem characters may not have been finalized when Sal's leaker got his info., which we know was early in development. I don't think a single guess was made.

 

[κomıc]

So you don't see a difference between the first leak and the second? The first one where all the names were guessed right, everything is stated exactly with confidence, compared to the second leak, which was much later, names were not completely right (such as Palutena), were clearly uncertain (pokemon x and y) or just plainly wrong. The first leak in style and results is completely different.

My theory is the first leak was what he knew, and the second leak was suspicions he had, which might have been grounded in some knowledge, but he actually didn't know anything.

No, I'm talking about that it is the same person. I believe the person who leaked these out were at some point involved in the development of the game (clearly early in development in 2012 it seems).

I'm going to repost this here, if that's fine.

You hit all the points, pretty much. So, it isn't matter of debating whether or not the characters are in the final roster at this point. It is more believing that this is a real insider. And I cannot stress that people need to read Sakurai's comments on a Pokemon from X/Y and correlate that to the second batch of information. We still have two more characters left to find out. And even if Shulk or Chorus Men don't make the cut, it was still a fun ride.

The ones disregarding the leak always have from Day 1. At first I was a doubter but when Little Mac made the scene, I knew it was too good to be just "a lucky guess". It is a baseless cop out to say these characters were just a "guess" when there's too much in its favor. I think it screams the fact people don't want the characters in the leak to be playable or they believe that these are the only new characters (which is obviously not the case).

Another sign of desperateness are people saying "The Gematsu leak is deconfirmed. Get over it."

Why? Because you subjectively think it is a "lucky guess"? It is fine if you're dubious- everyone should be. But when people are screaming and shouting about the leak not being real or the person leaking it is a random somebody for months, it really shows that some people don't really think outside the box or take into consideration any circumstances. To them, everything is black and white. Everything needs to be handed to them on a silver platter with the "confirmed" tag on it.

That's not how life works. Open up. Think and draw a legitimate conclusion. Not a knee-jerk reaction.

To reiterate: I'm not necessarily believing the whole content of the leaks. I'm believing the person behind the leaks. The person who has been bringing this information forward and giving us an insight and understanding how Game Development works (to some extent). Chrom was a casualty and likely to have been in Lucina's place.

Sakurai is aware of these leaks. He was also aware of the Palutena leak (real or not). He posted that whole week Kid Icarus content. It wasn't a coincidence- these people are in tun with the internet and it is blatantly obvious.

But some people still have the shades on and pretend they didn't see anything.