What's rarer, a Mew or a Clefairy Mew?

[Stonefallow]

I know the odds of getting a Mew is 1/151 or 0.662%, but other than that I really don't know how it works. I assume the other 12 pokemon are assigned equal probability, and combined they need to add up to 150/151.

150/12=12.5 So Clefairy has a 12.5/151 chance of being chosen. (Approx. 8.278%)

The clefairy then has 12 other pokemon that it can mimic using metronome. I'm not sure how the probabilities are distributed here. Either all 12 have an equal probability of being chosen, or Mew has 1/151 again and the rest have closer to 1/11.

If Clefairy picks Mew 1/12 times: .08278 x 1/12 = approx. 0.6898% (Slightly more common than a normal Mew)

If Clefairy picks Mew 1/151 times: .08278 x 1/151 = approx. 0.0548% (Over 10 times rarer than a normal Mew)

 

[alexkenny]

I would assume they would use simple statistics in the choice: Multiply the probability of getting mew by the probability of getting clefairy and you have your answer. The games run on logical math just like that to make all its processes, so there ya go.

So to answer your question, yes it is much more rare to see a clefairy mew. I believe I've seen it before, and I only say that because I remember having a dissapointed "wtf" reaction hahah

 

[Shears]

I feel like I see Clefairy Mew more often than Mew, so I would guess its the first probability. I don't play with items very often so I think we need our items expert to answer this one, @ S Studstill

 

[Olikus]

I like when snorlax shows up

 

[rjgbadger]

Studstill doesn't use all items, only the 'pro' ones

 

[alexkenny]

Studstill doesn't use all items, only the 'pro' ones

Who is this Studstill that I keep hearing about?

 

[Olikus]

Who is this Studstill that I keep hearing about?

The saviour of the universe

 

[alexkenny]

I'm guessing some tournament pro or something..?

 

[Annex]

ya just not the ones anyone plays

 

[MrMarbles]

clefairy mew seems to come up at least as often as mew in my experience

 

[alexkenny]

clefairy mew seems to come up at least as often as mew in my experience

You could be right. It could just be 50/50 on behalf of mew or clefairy. But I still feel like mew is a bit more uncommon... Maybe its like a 25% Mew type of thing

 

[rjgbadger]

I'm guessing some tournament pro or something..?

He's someone who recently became aware of the tournament competitive community, and he likes to use items, excluding hammers, pokeballs, stars, ray guns, and fire flowers. Obviously not many people will agree that items are the best way to determine skill between two players, but it is pretty fun :D

 

[Stonefallow]

It's been my experience too that the clefairy mew comes out more or less the same amount as a normal mew. It's hard to imagine the clefairy mew being ten times as rare as a normal mew, so I'm leaning more towards the idea that Clefairy picks through each pokemon equally. But my experience can't be enough to call it fact. I was hoping someone that could look at the games coding would know the answer.

 

[KoRoBeNiKi]

I remember a wtf reaction when I saw it happen.

But nothing much else.

 

[Studstill]

I feel like I see Clefairy Mew more often than Mew, so I would guess its the first probability. I don't play with items very often so I think we need our items expert to answer this one, @ S Studstill

This kind of good natured ribbing is completely uncalled for. However, I do thank you for the title despite apparently running unopposed.

I am positive I have a the actual data/a Sakurai quote or some exhaustive test some kid ran on gamefaqs, but I can`t find them now. I`ll keep looking.
Guessing, I`d agree with OP/Marbles/my experience and say that Clefairy runs a 1/12 chance for all. I haven`t played with pokeballs in a decade or so, but I don`t remember getting never getting Clefairy Mew. 1 time for every 1824 pokeballs, or 1 time every 151 Clefairies** is functionally equivalent to never, statistically.

*Sorry pokemon people, the gender thing escapes me.
**Again, 'Clefairys'? Idk lol.

 

[Cobrevolution]

definitely got clefairimew more often than regular mew when we played all the time in college. clutch goldeen was definitely the most common, though

also wasn't there a thing on youtube about controlling which pokemon spawns

like you throw the pokeball straight up and grab a bunch of times and it's likely to be meowth?