Things I Like - The Mafia Game - Game Over

[Wam]

Synchronicity who's your 2nd choice today

 

[LaserGuy]

Okay, so these are going to be partial reads since I only did three slots in full before I ran out of time, but this is what I've got so far. My main interest was trying to sort Malakandra, Synchronicity, and fonti, who I've been kind of ambivalent about for awhile.

Towncore:
LaserGuy
Kary
Dark Horse/replacement
Malakandra
pythag
FrozenFlame

I would be genuinely surprised if any of these slots ever flip mafia this game. Other than Mala I'm not really going to go into details here. Maybe I'll have a look at Frozen tomorrow if I have time, I guess.

Regarding Mala:

Spoiler

I'm actually really struggling to see a serious case being made here for him being mafia. The progression on his reads is super consistent, and while there are a number of key things that I don't believe Mala is correct about (mostly I don't think the EoD necessarily implies wam is scum), Mala has a clear theory for what happened at EoD and his logic that follows from it (even the stuff like why Boom is in Do Not Yeet) seems consistent with his approach. He is tunneling hard and doing so in a style that feels loose and aggressive and I think tends to attract OMGUS ( Synchronicity ... Malakandra is basically plytho 2.0, IMHO), but I don't think his tunnels are scum motivated.

I note that Mala basically doesn't go out of his way to really defend anyone. This is in contrast to when we were scum together where Mala spent a LOT of time defending me. I'll dig up the post if needed, but I think Exlight, maybe Xivii as well, documented some 30 occasions where Mala was trying to take pressure off me. When it looked like Frozen was going to be yeeted, Mala pushed hard to defend him there was well. I looked through his posting pretty carefully and I didn't really see any instances where I felt he was trying to deflect attention away from any particular slot. It's possible that Mala as scum has completely reversed his meta on this, but Mala definitely has a tendency to defend his buddies and I expect it would probably seep through even if he was trying to consciously avoid it. I definitely get the sense here that Mala doesn't have a particular agenda, and is just following his nose.

This wagon is also really awful.
Malakandra (3): Boom Frog, Fontisian, Synchronicity

Town leans:
Wam

I think there's a good chance both of these slots are going to be Town. wam just isn't really coming across as scum to me and I agree with Sync's meta and wagon analysis earlier that point to this conclusion as well. There's some scenarios where I could maybe see this as a possibility, but I think on balance wam flips Town more often than not.

Scum leans:

Synchronicity

Spoiler

Kind of a mixed bag here. There's some stuff here that feels genuine to me and other stuff I'm really not sure about.

I don't like #426. The reason for scumreading Kary here seems extremely thin. Sync's references to the past games were an opaque response to a direct question and asking for clarification here seems perfectly normal. This read seems to form the basis of the Kary case which I do not feel was well motivated.

Sync's reads in #503 are curious. Going to quote this in full while I review the progression:

Freshly brewed tea: Sabrar, LaserGuy, Dark Horse, Malakandra, BoomFrog

Scapegoats: Chaco, Pythag

Mosquitoes from the west of the Nile: FrozenFlame, Kary, Fontisian

This sums up the Frozen case well. Fontisian's reads are like irritable bowels. Kary's agenda is an open book. He is fond of scapegoats.

We are still pondering Somi and Wam and will have more in depth posts later, ideally if the game slows down.

Sync does actually have some progression leading to this somi vote, though it's weird that they aren't looking at Frozen or fonti based on their earlier reads and I'm a little surprised that the weren't more alarmed of ending up in the same wagon as scumreads fonti/Frozen.

I really don't like #835. I don't buy Sync's case on Mala at all. As noted above, Mala actually comes across as very townie and I don't really feel that the 'inaccuracies' thing is remotely AI. While I think there's a decent chance fonti is scum here, I also don't agree about Frozen. Or about me, obviously. I do actually find it somewhat townie though that Sync is automatically reading Frozen and me (and wam, apparently) as having TMI for correctly reading somi. Sort of a "I can't believe you worked this out when I was sure he was scum" vibe that I don't think scum!Sync would have.

Going forward, I find Sync's sudden flip on wam to be very strange and I don't really understand what's motivating it after making a strong Towncase for him just a few posts earlier. My inclination is to believe that a lot of the stuff on Mala, OTOH, is the result of mutual tunneling more than anything else. I don't see anything in particular in Sync's case that couldn't be explained by Mala tunneling + overeager newbie + OMGUS and I don't see anything in particular in Mala's case that can't be explained by similar things against a fairly difficult to read slot.

There's a bunch of stuff that I don't really care for at all and a few things that make me think that Sync could be Town. At this point, I still sort of lean scum, but I would not find it super surprising if they end up as Town either.

Chaco (pending review): I think my opinions of this slot are well known. I haven't had the chance to do a full review yet so maybe there will be some movement here. Chaco's recent content has been feeling better to me, as I mentioned earlier.
BoomFrog (pending review): I've been getting some scummy pings but haven't had the chance to do a full review either. Nothing has really struck me as Town!Boom, however, and I had a pretty good feeling on him the last few games.

Gorf/fonti:

I'm finding fonti very difficult to read on the whole and I'm kind of suspicious of people who are dropping easy townreads on her. fonti keeps her analysis very closed, and seems to actively avoid discussing her reads directly. E.g. after her naked vote on me in #470, she outlines her reasoning, I guess, in #551, but never acknowledges my follow up in #560, nor does she ever discuss me with Sync as she had asked to in #433. Fonti says she's probably going to go with wam in #639, then ends up dropping a naked vote on somi instead. This vote to me really stands out as the most unexplainable thing in fonti's iso. fonti claims in #882 that she had discussed somitomi before that vote, but on full reread and searching directly for somi's name in her iso and... yeah, no, there's nothing. She never interacts with him, never makes a definitive assessment of the slot. There's a few very oblique references that maybe she agrees with Chaco's case on somi, but it's more that she feels Chaco is being genuine rather than a commentary on somi. This vote looks really bad to me.

There's a bunch of stuff like #713, #717, #719, #766, #989, #995 that comes across as kind of low key manipulative to me. I can't say for certain this isn't just a style thing. But it rubs me the wrong way.

I do like fonti's case on BoomFrog in #988. I'm not sure if fonti knows BoomFrog well enough to meta this out, though, honestly. I don't agree at all with fonti's comments on Mala in #1151 and as noted above, am pretty suspicious of this push in general.

I'm not really expecting this to ever get any traction, but I honestly think this is the best chance we have of solving at this point.

Vote: fonti

 

[LaserGuy]

EBWOP:

I had Sync as a Town lean and one point and on reflection moved them to a scum lean, and I apparently missed a bit of text there that says there's two slots in Town leans.

 

[Synchronicity]

LaserGuy LaserGuy address this.

@LaserGuy

 

[Synchronicity]

Synchronicity who's your 2nd choice today

I think you're a good choice since if you're town, you'll be yeeted in mylo anyway. So having your flip before hand will increase our chances of winning since it would make the EoD1 actually something that can be analyzed and give us a clue as to the direction we should be going. Whereas when you're yeeted later, the information will no longer be of value.

I'm not for yeeting Fonti, Frozen, Boom, Laser, or pythag at this juncture. I think Boom is more suspicious than my previous suspicions of Fonti and Frozen. I think their interaction is strange still, but I'm going to assume they are just pocketed neighbors.

If Kary or Chaco wagons were viable, I'd be happy to go in either of those directions.

 

[Synchronicity]

I'm going to differ to everyone else's judgement that Mala is playing townie. Plus Right brain kind of shoved this onto Left anyway.

Vote: Chaco

 

[LaserGuy]

@LaserGuy

I think Malakandra is being honest about their assessment that Boom should never be a play before Wam. I don't think it's correct, but I think Malakandra genuinely believes that both you and Wam are basically caught scum at this point and the solve makes sense to him to do it in this order.

 

[Wam]

Review of the sync notes etc.

The basis behind it was to show progression on the chaco read.

Right brains notes dont have any negative on chaco until the TMI point.

Left brain is harder to follow with the links.

I make it clear that it was edited. I posted updates when I something was answered on later posts and changed Gorf to Fonti where applicable.

Where nothing i see up to this post suggests they were edited prior to posting.

lol I don't know what to say to you at this point. I referred to Gorf when GORF made a post. I referred to the slot as FONTI when it referred to my current reads lmfao.

Why would current reads be in a shotgun scum team in notes.

I don't have any. And even if I did, I wouldn't go along with this since I think it's against the spirit of the game. It should never be provable that you have notes or communication. There should always be room for doubt / the idea that they can be fabricated.

That being said, if you believe I'm capable of fabricating the notes I've already provided, then scum!me could just do the same thing here.
On a scale of 0 to 10 how likely do you think it was that I was trying to convince Frozen that he was scum.
The conclusion isn't based on the assumption that Sabrar doesn't understand basic logic. His understanding of logic is irrelevant the accuracy of an argument. That being said, I was incorrect, his logic was sound, the premise was wrong.

You cant add notes to the thread then say asking for notes is against the spirit of the game.

Cheers

So why did you originally say it was edited then change to say it was drafted that way because it was written after Fonti replaced?


Alright, there's a dropped wire somewhere between the three of us in this conversation. I forgot what premise means and assumed I was asking a different question. Please tell me you're not intentionally trying to be obtuse, though. Anyway, if you think you know what evidence Sabrar was using for his reasoning beyond what you already mentioned then let me know.

Boom has summarised well above.

I'm not sure what you're asking. I'm also not sure what you're going on about the Sabrar premise thing. Nothing of substance is coming from this so this will be the last response.
.

This comes across as very scummy by trying to shut down the discussion.

So that's my notes issue summary.

Also the more I think I believe my point below is valid.

I have a slighty convoluted read on sync that has been bouncing round my head.

Based on the post below and the early day 2 content I think a reasonable assumption is that Bessie had a town meta read on me.



Now unless things have changed in the year I havent played bessie committed hard to her meta reads.

So if we then look at the development on me it's a very quick switch early day 2 to pushing my lynch. This reads to me like xivii posts.

I have never played a hydra but if the slot is town and one half has a solid town meta read and then other half starts doubting that they pause and message then other half. If the slot is scum they are more likely to see the opening and go for it.

So the above summarise my sync read.

Summary don't like the response to the pressure on the notes, dont think the progression on me is town so viewing them very scummy.

 

[Synchronicity]

Boom has summarised well above.

This comes across as very scummy by trying to shut down the discussion.

I responded to Boom here.

The part I was shutting down was the Sabrar thing as it seems we were miscommunicating.

Why would current reads be in a shotgun scum team in notes.

It was page 1. I like to predict the scum team from the first page.

You cant add notes to the thread then say asking for notes is against the spirit of the game.

Yes I can. One is sharing my thoughts, the other is attempting to break the game. This has been discussed at length.

Where nothing i see up to this post suggests they were edited prior to posting.

When things were addressed in the future, I went back and noted an update. I also removed anything that looked like conversation between the two halves of my brains. (For the same reason I'm not doing the "post notes from page #N game. Hydra logs are cheap and against the spirit).

 

[Synchronicity]

Why haven't you responded to this? Can you walk me through the steps of what it is you believe Chaco found, how it leads to scum synchro, and why the alternative explanation that I've provided is not more sensible.

Wam

 

[Wam]

Wam

That's the post above. The explanation kept changing. It came across a scrabbling. It was definitely presented as here are our notes from then. Then chaco pointed out an incosigentcy that didnt fit that which was weird and looked iffy to me. Then the response wasnt good either.

 

[Synchronicity]

That's the post above. The explanation kept changing. It came across a scrabbling. It was definitely presented as here are our notes from then. Then chaco pointed out an incosigentcy that didnt fit that which was weird and looked iffy to me. Then the response wasnt good either.

1. What is the inconsistency?
2. What response wasn't good?

 

[Wam]

Ebwop as the above makes no sense.

1) the review is the post above.
2) the notes were presented as here is our development on chaco it has much less relevance if they are edited/written later.
3) I agree with chaco that it is a weird inconsistency to have gorf/font in the notes in the pattern above.
4) Notes edited in this way make me much more likely to believe they were polished up to give a towny look which is scummy.
5) when the inconsistency in the notes was point I viewed the responses from sync as scrabbling and inconsistent

 

[Wam]

1. What is the inconsistency?
2. What response wasn't good?

Already answered let me know if you want more.

 

[Wam]

Also Synchronicity whilst your here a response to my other point about your case development on me?

 

[Synchronicity]

You're using two different versions of "later." They were written Later as in at around page 10. As I linked before, there is hard evidence in the thread that supports this. Do you agree that Right started taking those notes at around that time?

 

[Synchronicity]

Also Synchronicity whilst your here a response to my other point about your case development on me?

Remind me of this.

 

[giraffelasergun]

Vote Count 2.7

Synchronicity(4): Kary, Chaco, Wam, Malakandra
Wam (2): Dark Horse, BoomFrog
Malakandra (1): Fontisian
Fontisian (1): Laserguy
Chaco(1): Synchronicity

Not voting (2): Pythag, FrozenFlame
Day 2 Ends on Thursday the 17th at 5 PM CST. End of Day Countdown With 11 Alive, it takes 6 votes to eliminate

 

[Chaco]

Synchronicity is flailing. I’ve seen them cast doubt on about every slot now. Easy to be safe when you’re open ended.

About Somi, look at the upswing momentum, it’s clear that Somi was going to be lynched. Wam caught up and tied it sure, but that was the last vote that was goin to be placed there. Normal circumstances of it not falling on Mala, Somi goes before it’s even thought about. It would ultimately fall back on reasonable Wam doubt again when there wasn’t that speculation on Somi. You act like me being blunt and saying it is a scummy take. Anything you can do to try and deviate what’s obvious to fit, huh?

 

[Synchronicity]

obvious that Somi was going to be the one to go

I can guarantee you that not a single other person in this thread share your opinion.

 

[Synchronicity]

Also: https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Flailing

Relevant snip: "Indeed, the data suggests it is actually more scummy to call someone out on flailing than to flail oneself. "

 

[Synchronicity]

Vote Count 2.7

Synchronicity(4): Kary, Chaco, Wam, Malakandra
Wam (2): Dark Horse, BoomFrog
Malakandra (1): Fontisian
Fontisian (1): Laserguy
Chaco(1): Synchronicity

Not voting (2): Pythag, FrozenFlame
Day 2 Ends on Thursday the 17th at 5 PM CST. End of Day Countdown With 11 Alive, it takes 6 votes to eliminate

I think there's probably 2 scum on wagon and one off.

 

[Chaco]

Well it gives you a baseline 35% as scum just from that.

And yeah no one will probably agree with me on Somi, but the trajectory is clear. Explain to me why it’s a scummy take because it’s a different take? Those two don’t equal one another.

 

[Pythag]

Synchronicity is flailing. I’ve seen them cast doubt on about every slot now. Easy to be safe when you’re open ended.

With them putting a vote on you? That doesn’t strike me as flailing. I actually like it.

About Somi, look at the upswing momentum, it’s clear that Somi was going to be lynched. Wam caught up and tied it sure, but that was the last vote that was goin to be placed there. Normal

are you kidding me?

 

[Wam]

Remind me of this.

Things I Like - The Mafia Game - Game Over

@Chaco what do you think the general PoE is. @Wam you started out the day on FF, but I don't think I've seen you follow up on anything you mentioned yet. Has your opinion changed?

smashboards.com

 

[Chaco]

With them putting a vote on you? That doesn’t strike me as flailing. I actually like it.



are you kidding me?

With them literally trying to cast doubt anywhere to get it off of them, how can you not see that?

No, go back and look. You’re deluding yourself if you think it was going to happen any other way. Everyone was already in their wagons and it fell into this “I can’t handle the pressure moment” and Boom had to vote. But if you look at commentary about the two it is completely clear that Somi had more momentum versus a stale early D1 Wam Wagon. Like how is that not clearly seen? If wam was gonna be the okay he would’ve land slider it, it had been hashed out at length.

 

[Wam]

Well it gives you a baseline 35% as scum just from that.

And yeah no one will probably agree with me on Somi, but the trajectory is clear. Explain to me why it’s a scummy take because it’s a different take? Those two don’t equal one another.

I think it's a very wrong assumption. My view was certainly that I was going to be lynched.

Tbh I cant see what scum chaco or town chaco has to gain by pushing thisnif they dont believe it...

 

[#HBC | Kary]

#HBC | Kary So you think it’s Synch/Laser/Fonti?

No, I still don't agree with your Laser read or know why I should think he is scummy. He seems null at worst to me.

I think sync flips red here and I would look at fonti and boom next because they're both low on my list and seem to be hedging on Sync today. Idk who the third is, but I have a bad feeling it's Pythag, so if he hits like on this post he's probably mafia.

 

[Chaco]

Pythag So you’re gonna honestly sit there and tell me that Sync’s move again isn’t trying to situate a mislynch? Look through their ISO at hedging Kary and myself as a potential team ALL GAME. You’re either playing dumb or just flat out scum with them.

 

[Synchronicity]

And yeah no one will probably agree with me on Somi, but the trajectory is clear. Explain to me why it’s a scummy take because it’s a different take? Those two don’t equal one another.

It comes across as informed. Consider that the wagon consisted of mostly (if not all town). From the perspective of mafia watching the wagon build, they see that it is honestly driven from actual townies, so the wagon appears to them as having more momentum than say the wam wagon consisting of 2 or more scum.

 

[Chaco]

It comes across as informed. Consider that the wagon consisted of mostly (if not all town). From the perspective of mafia watching the wagon build, they see that it is honestly driven from actual townies, so the wagon appears to them as having more momentum than say the wam wagon consisting of 2 or more scum.

But that’s literally looking beyond the obvious to try and formulate a reason as to why I would say it. Wam was discussed at length, and ultimately left to rest as is. I mean left alone for basically two irl days, right? Pursuits continued elsewhere. Sabrar literally called it though, all you guys saying Wam is scummy put your votes where your mouth is, and Somi instantly caught momentum. That was your complete first tell the Lynch was going to fall there. The second would be that a wam Lynch has already been hashed out and was completely divided, which is the only reason it tied. The facts are all there.

 

[Chaco]

I don’t have the time to do it right now, but I can literally go highlight the posts to why it’s clear Somi was going to be lynched.

I’ll probably do it later anyways, just because, but it will be afternoon

 

[Synchronicity]

Again though, it's not obvious. You're the only one that thinks that.

 

[Chaco]

No, I still don't agree with your Laser read or know why I should think he is scummy. He seems null at worst to me.

I think sync flips red here and I would look at fonti and boom next because they're both low on my list and seem to be hedging on Sync today. Idk who the third is, but I have a bad feeling it's Pythag, so if he hits like on this post he's probably mafia.

The interactions between the two, not enough hard stance and would lend to distancing, while creating content to be looked back upon.

Im fairly certain Sync flips scum here. I actually agree with your take on Fonti not committing to Sync,but I don’t see Boom/Fonti together. Pythag does make sense as he’s basically backed off to lurk mode.

 

[Synchronicity]

Things I Like - The Mafia Game - Game Over

@Chaco what do you think the general PoE is. @Wam you started out the day on FF, but I don't think I've seen you follow up on anything you mentioned yet. Has your opinion changed?

smashboards.com

I'm not sure what you're looking for here. Your point is non falsifiable.

 

[Chaco]

Again though, it's not obvious. You're the only one that thinks that.

I do this a lot where I think it’s obvious and then no one else thinks it is.

 

[Synchronicity]

It makes me uncomfortable that Kary, Chaco, and Mala are all treating my slot as if it's 100% scum.

If you guys forget this I'll be sad.

 

[Chaco]

With that being said though #HBC | Kary , it only makes sense for Laser to be scum with Sync. Then a third that isn’t up in his path.

 

[Chaco]

If you guys forget this I'll be sad.

Why does that matter though? If we strongly believe you’re scum all for completely different reasons then what are you trying to say here?

 

[Chaco]

I have a question for you Synchronicity , in the scum team you propose, how does a Sabrar NK make any sense for us?