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So with the nerf to Sheik, does Pikachu have any "losing" matchups outside of Mario? All characters above him were nerfed in some way except sort of Ryu supposedly and a lot of characters below him got nerfed too, MK for example. What does this mean for Pikachu's viability? I see a lot of people saying he has the potential to be the best in the game but I'm still skeptical
In my opinion, the and matchups are Pikachu's main obstacles right now, moreso the former than the latter. might be disadvantageous, but he's not really relevant in our current meta, so I can't really comment on that.
Pikachu still has an amazing neutral, a great advantaged state and a decent disadvantaged state. He's got that strong ability to rack up damage at low percents and edgeguard, and his punish game is pretty potent too.
Being a small character means that mistakes are more costly though, so that could hinder his viability. A lack of range also somewhat holds him back, but other characters having more range than him is not a big deal except for in air-air interactions.
Pikachu's future really depends on the implementation of kill confirms. We have up throw to RAR Thunder and up throw to DJ Thunder.* The former works at somewhat earlier percents but is harder to perform. The latter is the opposite of that: easier to perform but it works at later percents. Getting better at both of these methods is important, nonetheless.
This of course is ignoring the up throw to Thunder mixups, but those aren't confirmed ways of getting kills.
In addition, there's also up tilt to Thunder, up air to Thunder, jab locks, and edgeguarding but they are not as reliable, even if they can be true.
Since ESAM is pretty much our only top player, most people will be looking at his performance to rate Pikachu (even if he doesn't use everything we know at the time, unfortunately). So, how he does at these next tournaments will have a major impact too.
In short, the future of Pikachu is
I could see him rising or falling on the tier list.