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The Nature of an Upset: What it Means for Competitive Smash


Most people who follow competitive scenes are aware of the term "upset" and use it frequently when discussing matches or sets. For those who aren’t, an upset is typically defined as one player or team losing to another, deviating from the expected result. An upset can occur for countless reasons, from character match-ups unknown to one of the players, a lack of confidence affecting skill, something unusual occurring in-game, among others. Contrary to the connotations of the word “upset”, it’s not necessarily bad to see these types of results in tournaments, especially at majors. The latest major tournament held in the US, Community Effort Orlando 2016, was home to numerous upsets across various games this year, but for the sake of brevity and relevance, this article will be looking at Super Smash Bros. for Wii U and taking a quick peak at what the various upsets and results of CEO mean for the current Smash 4 metagame.

To Fell a King

TSM’s own King of Smash 4, Gonzalo “ZeRo” Barrios, has had a bit of a rough run in 2016, having being defeated by some of Smash 4’s finest players, including Ally, eLevate Larry Lurr, and CEO’s champion Dream Team Anti. While it’s expected for players of their skill level to have eventually toppled their foe after his lengthy undefeated streak had ended, the crowd from Orlando and the world over was shocked to see ZeRo drop into loser’s bracket in pools to Prince Ramen.


Credit to VGBC for streaming and uploading Smash at CEO

To see ZeRo lose is surprising all together because up until this point he had given a fight to the last match and to the last hit; however, Prince Ramen managed to run away with an impressive 2-0 using Palutena, a character often disregarded outside of the Customs meta due to her incredibly frame-tight execution and a limited amount of versatile tools with generally unfavorable frame data. Fighting against the scarfed hero’s signature Diddy Kong should have been a quick 2-0 in ZeRo’s favor, but Prince Ramen was able to keep pressure on throughout the match and took advantage of every opportunity to punish ZeRo’s less optimal approaches, resulting in one of the greatest upsets at a Smash 4 major to date. While ZeRo managed to fight his way out of his pools and make an impressive loser’s run into top 16, he was once again thwarted by Larry Lurr in an incredible 3-0. This not only added on to ZeRo’s streak of not collecting the gold in Smash 4 but has also given him his first tournament finish outside of the top 8 that he has attended.

A World Warrior, A Mecha Master, and a Feral Fighter

Taking the focus off ZeRo, another surprising upset occured during CEO 2016 pools for Smash 4 featuring Panda Global’s newly acquired Trela. A player well known for his impressive control over Ryu and one of the many established players in belief that Ryu is theoretically one of the best characters in the game had fallen into loser’s bracket early on to Jade, a Bowser Jr. main from Florida.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q6eqhPLjDhg

VGBC made it a point to upload the VODs for these historic upsets within minutes of happening. Seriously.

Despite how the match-up was expected to play out, Jade showed mastery over the Clown Car’s movement options and pressure extended by the Koopa Prince’s arsenal of unorthodox projectiles leading to an astounding 2-1. Trela would later falter in loser’s bracket and be eliminated by another Floridian player named Mika, who played Lucario. This is not to say any of these players didn’t play well; a recently sponsored player being toppled in bracket by local players, while representing one of the top characters and losing to a character that is generally accepted to be middle of the road if not lower, is an incredible sign for where the Smash 4 metagame is right now.

A Healthy Check Up

There were other surprising results at CEO 2016, but by taking these two cases we can get a good look at the current position the metagame is sitting at. We have seen an incredible amount of character diversity in just top 8 alone, let alone from top 16, top 64, or the entire tournament. The results of CEO 2016 proved that consistency is even harder to attain in the current meta because of players rising in skill level and keeping the top from just being a select few players with a select pool of characters. When looking for signs of a healthy metagame, it's better to see large character representation represented by an equally large player pool, which showcases the viability of the cast of a game on the merits of the players instead of how heavily one character outweighs another. It opens the door for players to play characters that fit their playstyles and allows them to express their passions to play the game without being destined for mediocrity, leading to niche characters having previously unprecedented representation on stages and screens. It also allows for the metagame to perpetuate a player playing more than one character for the sake of being prepared for a plethora of match-ups instead of betting it all on one horse, so to speak.

Another massive factor worth noting here is that just because certain players have more public visibility, they aren’t ensured to occupy the tops of brackets. Relatively unknown talent can crop up wherever a tournament is hosted, and when that happens, we as a community get to see great players who otherwise wouldn’t be known by the larger majority of viewers. It creates a healthy environment for competition, where players of all skill levels from all locations will continue to learn and grow because no one is ensured their time in the spotlight unless they put the dedication and time into their game of choice.

There's still plenty to watch this summer as we look forward to one of the biggest Smash tournaments of all time at EVO 2016! Think the Smash 4 metagame is going in the right direction, or do you feel we'll see an unexpected turn in the game's lifespan? Sound off in the comments below, and remember to check back at Smashboards for more coverage and discussion of all things Super Smash Brothers as we continue on through one of the most exciting summers of Smash yet!
 
Frank "Hangman" DeJohn

Comments

but Mew2King's Pichu is AMAZING!
Good point, I have actually seen him win against a shiek player. (Although admittedly, the shiek I watched wasn't as good as some of the shieks I've seen)

Then again though, that's Mew2King, that guy can play practically anyone and do well, lol. XD

Mind you, I've only had melee for about two months, but I've known about the game (and seen small snippets of tournaments) for about a year.

EDIT: I also remember someone at my university remarking that he had met him when I brought him up at one of my uni's local sm4sh tournaments.
 
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If we never saw another patch, I think we'd see the meta continue in an awesome direction. A game with a gigantic roster like this needs character diversity on the competitive level, and with the advent of this tournament, it looks like that's what we're going to see for years to come.

The word I have to describe how I'm feeling is a word used by all, but most gloriously by M. Bison:

Tom Nook does it better.
 
I was at CEO. I watched the match between Jade and Trela and couldn't believe that Jade was handling herself like a boss. I was yelling out that Tweek needed to get a notepad and pen and take down notes.

Prediction: By the end of the year tier list won't be a thing.
 
I have to honestly say the patches have kinda made the game hard to keep up with like before 1.1.5 i was able to beat my cousin 3-1 in a set almost any time. but now i have to actually try sometimes. Its a good thing because it forces me to learn new types of tech and really helps process my skill. but i do wish people wouldnt complain as much.

now to the harder note: complaining. if we as a community cry about one thing because some refused to learn how to get around it (bayo shiek diddy etc.) then maybe the patchs are not needed at all, cant we all be like prince ramen and suck it up learn how to beat the top teirs and just do it please its annyoing to see a good character go to waste because people cant beat it cause we are being stupid. come on....( i know im all mixed up i dont word myself very well)
 
LOL. XD


Damn I wish someone would come out like that with Pichu in Melee... XD (not joking BTW, that would be awesome to see!)
Good luck with that, the only reason NO ONE would play Pichu is because she hurts herself on more than half of her movepool. It almost makes me surprised that she's better than Bowser in terms of tiers and even he's been used in melee Tourneys!!!
 
Yeah it just goes to show NO ONE plays Pichu, love her maybe, play her forget about it there's too many damn cheap Foxes and Falcos to go around in the melee scene. :urg: I just wish there was a way to ban Fox and Falco then maybe Pichu would be played more often.
 
Yeah it just goes to show NO ONE plays Pichu, love her maybe, play her forget about it there's too many damn cheap Foxes and Falcos to go around in the melee scene. :urg: I just wish there was a way to ban Fox and Falco then maybe Pichu would be played more often.
Actually... ;) How's about Pichu, DK and Falcon instead?
I pretty much play those three.
 
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