ChronoBound
Smash Hero
- Joined
- Sep 20, 2006
- Messages
- 8,998
2015 has so far been rough for Project M. 3.5 itself also launched to much less fanfare than 3.0 (though this was understandable, because Smash 4 Wii U ended up launching a week later). With major tournies and streamers dumping Project M, there are many that believe that Project M's best days are behind it, and some whom think that its days in general are numbered.
The question exists as to whether Project M can not only survive, but rather thrive in a competitive scene where its being muscled out of the biggest tournies and sponsors. It has developed a sort of "middle child" condition where it lacks the seniority and prestige that Melee has and the "freshness" and official sponsorship that Smash 4 enjoys.
However, despite things currently looking bleak for Project M. Potentially, Project M could thrive and prosper despite the adverse conditions against it.
First, it must be discussed and analyzed the background and parameters pertaining to Smash 4 and Project M.
For Smash 4, the game had unprecedented hype for a Nintendo published title. Although Brawl was weakly received by the competitive subset of the Smash Bros. fanbase, the game itself sold a phenomenal 12-13 million copies, making it by far the highest selling installment to the series (by comparison Melee sold 7 million).
However, there was also a paradox existing within Smash 4's hype. The Wii U itself is by far Nintendo's worst selling home console, and the 3DS, while successful, is going to end up being Nintendo's lowest selling mainline handheld. Nintendo's since 2011, has been in the most dire financial straits it has ever been in, and it was only until the second half of 2014 that they started drawing a profit again (likely due to the strong software sales of a numerous amount of titles released last year, as well as no longer eating a loss on 3DS's and Wii U's that are sold).
There are many that compare the Wii U's dismal performance with that of the GameCube, but the fact is that its doing far worse than the GameCube. GameCube by the end of its life had sold 22 million, and had an attach rate of nine games per console. Right now the Wii U has only sold around eight million (with its biggest sellers already out), and its attach rate it only 5-6. To make things even more dire, the GameCube had sold 13 million in North America (by far its strongest territory). As of the end of 2014, the Wii U has only sold around 3.5-4 million in North America (again NA is by far the strongest territory for the Wii U). Based on trajectory, the Wii U's final LTD will be from 12-15 million. The Wii had sold over 100 million consoles, yet the Wii U will be lucky to reach even 15 million. Its far worse of a failure than the GameCube ever was, especially considering it was coming off the back of the highest selling home console Nintendo ever had.
The Wii U's audience basically consists of:
1. Core Nintendo fans
2. Kids and Family
At this point (especially after the last holiday season), Nintendo knows there is no turning the Wii U around, and even getting it to the level of success that the GameCube had is very likely off the table. Nintendo's primary direction it seems now with the Wii U is trying to maximize present consumer enjoyment with the Wii U, as well as attempts to make as much money as possible off of the core Nintendo fanbase (this can evidently be seen with the Amiibo line and Nintendo pursuing DLC in more titles).
Catering to the core/hardcore Nintendo fan demographic is one of Nintendo's primary strategies for dealing with the Wii U failure debacle. Its for this reason why Nintendo has likely started sponsoring the competitive Smash Bros. scene, despite Sakurai himself being ambivalent at best on the idea of Smash Bros. as a competitive/"serious" fighting game/series. Since the Wii U will likely be on the market for another 2-3 years (Nintendo will likely introduce their next home console in either 2016 or 2017), at the very least Project M will not be allow to be officially displayed at major tournies for the next few years since Nintendo will likely want to promote Smash 4 until the end of the Wii U's life. Nintendo's hope is that by promoting Smash 4 with the hardcore set, that the game will drive quite a bit more hardware sales than it would otherwise until the system ultimately leaves the market.
However, its imperative to realize that even in an environment where Smash 4 and Nintendo muscles Project M out of the biggest tournaments, that the game can still survive and thrive the upcoming years. Such an example already exists within the Smash Bros. community. When Brawl was initially released, some major tournies dropped Melee in favor of Brawl. However, due to the tenacity, perseverance, and viral word of mouth, Melee by the time of 2011/2012 ended up becoming as popular as it had been during the GameCube era (perhaps even more popular).
Project M could potentially achieve a similar milestone.
Project M 3.0 reached over a million downloads (most of which were likely in North America). By comparison, Smash 4 Wii U by the end of 2014 sold only 1.3 million copies in America. The number achieved by Project M is more impressive on the face of that a large portion of Smash 4 Wii U's sales likely went to people whom are unlikely to enter the competitive subset of the community (as mentioned earlier the second major demographic of Wii U owners are kids/families). As such the amount of people who purchased 3.0 and Smash 4 Wii U to play "seriously" is probably very competitive with one another, which is a massive positive going forward.
I would say the top most limit for how many downloads an iteration of Project M could achieve would be two million (but that's if all the stars aligned). Realistically, its not unlikely for a new update for Project M to achieve one million downloads even with Smash 4 on the market and being officially sponsored by Nintendo.
Project M 3.0 likely achieved its million+ download milestone due to a multitude of factors. First, Smash 4 was about a year from release, so a lot of "core" Smash Bros. fans were looking for something to serve as an appetizer. For many people who were looking forward to Smash 4 (including myself), the additions of Mewtwo and Roy were what drew us to Project M in the first place (there was a lot of support for those two characters to return for Smash 4). For the competitive subset, the prospect of having the entire cast from Brawl added in (as well as the additions of Mewtwo and Roy) with Melee-style gameplay.
3.5's emphasis was further balance and gameplay tweaks, the additions of a few new modes/features such as debug and All-Star Versus, and the addition of lots of high quality alternate costumes and stages (the updates for the three N64 stages as well as the new Ice Climber stage were excellent, in my opinion). It was definitely the best update the team could have done in the face of the Smash 4 juggernaut.
Going forward Smash 4 won't have the hype and interest it had during its first year. Potentially, DLC (especially character DLC) will upkeep interest in the title, but essentially Smash 4 is "complete".
Project M essentially is still in development. There is a possible five additional characters for them to add (all of which will be entirely new to the Smash Bros. series), as well as possible wide assortment of new modes and features that could further differentiate it from other installments to the Smash Bros. series.
In regards to potential newcomers, they could definitely serve to help bring Project M back in to the spotlight again outside the dedicated Project M fans. Characters such as Ridley and/or Isaac in particular are among the few notable characters left that were not added in to Smash 4. While Smash 4 added a notable amount of Nintendo franchises to the roster (Punch-Out, Xenoblade, Animal Crossing, Wii Fit, Mii's), long running franchises with avid fanbases such as Golden Sun and Advance Wars were still left out in the cold. Ridley is a character that needs no introduction. Future iterations of Project M could definitely draw in the same kind of fans that 3.0 brought in through the additions of Mewtwo and Roy. Drawing in through the "core" (but not quite into the competitive scene) Smash Bros. fans back in through possible character additions is simply one way to help get Project M back out on its feet.
As to the competitive fanbase, these are possibly the most passionate and avid segment to the Smash Bros. fanbase (especially at this point, where almost every notable Nintendo character has already been added in). These are the same people whom helped Melee rise back to prominence despite the game going on close to 15 years old and Brawl having had nearly double the LTD sales that Melee enjoyed.
Project M is the only "game" to the Smash Bros. series in which its design was catered to this demographic of the Smash Bros. fanbase. As such, it potentially could eventually rise back into the limelight simply through positive word of mouth and dedicated fans. Project M is the only other game in the series that rivals Melee in terms of its depth, and its undoubtedly the most balanced of any installment.
Although Melee is a timeless classic, it is eventually going to be (or perhaps even starting to) get a little long in the tooth. There might possibly be a segment to the Melee fanbase that tires of the same kind of matchups for Melee or that not much else new is being done at the highest levels. As such, it could potentially serve as a gateway into them exploring Project M.
I feel one stigma that future iterations of Project M could mitigate is for it to further differentiate itself from Brawl. A common attack against Project M is that its "simply a mod". By perhaps changing Project M more from Brawl (perhaps replacing the intro for one down the line), as well as adding in more features not seen in Brawl, the game will help further solidify its own identity.
Project M in the coming years (this year and next) will probably have to live in Smash 4 and Melee's shadow. However, I think after 2016, the game if it has played its cards right and if it has benefited from good word of mouth, will become a mainstay to the competitive Smash Bros. scene, and even be beloved by those outside of it.
Ultimately, this is all up to the efforts of the PMDT and Project M fans. Even if Project M does not regain its 2013 highs, it still could be a part of the Smash Bros. fandom. Remember, as with Melee's resurgence, its all up to the dedication of those who play the game and the community it fosters.
So what are your thoughts with all this in mind?
The question exists as to whether Project M can not only survive, but rather thrive in a competitive scene where its being muscled out of the biggest tournies and sponsors. It has developed a sort of "middle child" condition where it lacks the seniority and prestige that Melee has and the "freshness" and official sponsorship that Smash 4 enjoys.
However, despite things currently looking bleak for Project M. Potentially, Project M could thrive and prosper despite the adverse conditions against it.
First, it must be discussed and analyzed the background and parameters pertaining to Smash 4 and Project M.
For Smash 4, the game had unprecedented hype for a Nintendo published title. Although Brawl was weakly received by the competitive subset of the Smash Bros. fanbase, the game itself sold a phenomenal 12-13 million copies, making it by far the highest selling installment to the series (by comparison Melee sold 7 million).
However, there was also a paradox existing within Smash 4's hype. The Wii U itself is by far Nintendo's worst selling home console, and the 3DS, while successful, is going to end up being Nintendo's lowest selling mainline handheld. Nintendo's since 2011, has been in the most dire financial straits it has ever been in, and it was only until the second half of 2014 that they started drawing a profit again (likely due to the strong software sales of a numerous amount of titles released last year, as well as no longer eating a loss on 3DS's and Wii U's that are sold).
There are many that compare the Wii U's dismal performance with that of the GameCube, but the fact is that its doing far worse than the GameCube. GameCube by the end of its life had sold 22 million, and had an attach rate of nine games per console. Right now the Wii U has only sold around eight million (with its biggest sellers already out), and its attach rate it only 5-6. To make things even more dire, the GameCube had sold 13 million in North America (by far its strongest territory). As of the end of 2014, the Wii U has only sold around 3.5-4 million in North America (again NA is by far the strongest territory for the Wii U). Based on trajectory, the Wii U's final LTD will be from 12-15 million. The Wii had sold over 100 million consoles, yet the Wii U will be lucky to reach even 15 million. Its far worse of a failure than the GameCube ever was, especially considering it was coming off the back of the highest selling home console Nintendo ever had.
The Wii U's audience basically consists of:
1. Core Nintendo fans
2. Kids and Family
At this point (especially after the last holiday season), Nintendo knows there is no turning the Wii U around, and even getting it to the level of success that the GameCube had is very likely off the table. Nintendo's primary direction it seems now with the Wii U is trying to maximize present consumer enjoyment with the Wii U, as well as attempts to make as much money as possible off of the core Nintendo fanbase (this can evidently be seen with the Amiibo line and Nintendo pursuing DLC in more titles).
Catering to the core/hardcore Nintendo fan demographic is one of Nintendo's primary strategies for dealing with the Wii U failure debacle. Its for this reason why Nintendo has likely started sponsoring the competitive Smash Bros. scene, despite Sakurai himself being ambivalent at best on the idea of Smash Bros. as a competitive/"serious" fighting game/series. Since the Wii U will likely be on the market for another 2-3 years (Nintendo will likely introduce their next home console in either 2016 or 2017), at the very least Project M will not be allow to be officially displayed at major tournies for the next few years since Nintendo will likely want to promote Smash 4 until the end of the Wii U's life. Nintendo's hope is that by promoting Smash 4 with the hardcore set, that the game will drive quite a bit more hardware sales than it would otherwise until the system ultimately leaves the market.
However, its imperative to realize that even in an environment where Smash 4 and Nintendo muscles Project M out of the biggest tournaments, that the game can still survive and thrive the upcoming years. Such an example already exists within the Smash Bros. community. When Brawl was initially released, some major tournies dropped Melee in favor of Brawl. However, due to the tenacity, perseverance, and viral word of mouth, Melee by the time of 2011/2012 ended up becoming as popular as it had been during the GameCube era (perhaps even more popular).
Project M could potentially achieve a similar milestone.
Project M 3.0 reached over a million downloads (most of which were likely in North America). By comparison, Smash 4 Wii U by the end of 2014 sold only 1.3 million copies in America. The number achieved by Project M is more impressive on the face of that a large portion of Smash 4 Wii U's sales likely went to people whom are unlikely to enter the competitive subset of the community (as mentioned earlier the second major demographic of Wii U owners are kids/families). As such the amount of people who purchased 3.0 and Smash 4 Wii U to play "seriously" is probably very competitive with one another, which is a massive positive going forward.
I would say the top most limit for how many downloads an iteration of Project M could achieve would be two million (but that's if all the stars aligned). Realistically, its not unlikely for a new update for Project M to achieve one million downloads even with Smash 4 on the market and being officially sponsored by Nintendo.
Project M 3.0 likely achieved its million+ download milestone due to a multitude of factors. First, Smash 4 was about a year from release, so a lot of "core" Smash Bros. fans were looking for something to serve as an appetizer. For many people who were looking forward to Smash 4 (including myself), the additions of Mewtwo and Roy were what drew us to Project M in the first place (there was a lot of support for those two characters to return for Smash 4). For the competitive subset, the prospect of having the entire cast from Brawl added in (as well as the additions of Mewtwo and Roy) with Melee-style gameplay.
3.5's emphasis was further balance and gameplay tweaks, the additions of a few new modes/features such as debug and All-Star Versus, and the addition of lots of high quality alternate costumes and stages (the updates for the three N64 stages as well as the new Ice Climber stage were excellent, in my opinion). It was definitely the best update the team could have done in the face of the Smash 4 juggernaut.
Going forward Smash 4 won't have the hype and interest it had during its first year. Potentially, DLC (especially character DLC) will upkeep interest in the title, but essentially Smash 4 is "complete".
Project M essentially is still in development. There is a possible five additional characters for them to add (all of which will be entirely new to the Smash Bros. series), as well as possible wide assortment of new modes and features that could further differentiate it from other installments to the Smash Bros. series.
In regards to potential newcomers, they could definitely serve to help bring Project M back in to the spotlight again outside the dedicated Project M fans. Characters such as Ridley and/or Isaac in particular are among the few notable characters left that were not added in to Smash 4. While Smash 4 added a notable amount of Nintendo franchises to the roster (Punch-Out, Xenoblade, Animal Crossing, Wii Fit, Mii's), long running franchises with avid fanbases such as Golden Sun and Advance Wars were still left out in the cold. Ridley is a character that needs no introduction. Future iterations of Project M could definitely draw in the same kind of fans that 3.0 brought in through the additions of Mewtwo and Roy. Drawing in through the "core" (but not quite into the competitive scene) Smash Bros. fans back in through possible character additions is simply one way to help get Project M back out on its feet.
As to the competitive fanbase, these are possibly the most passionate and avid segment to the Smash Bros. fanbase (especially at this point, where almost every notable Nintendo character has already been added in). These are the same people whom helped Melee rise back to prominence despite the game going on close to 15 years old and Brawl having had nearly double the LTD sales that Melee enjoyed.
Project M is the only "game" to the Smash Bros. series in which its design was catered to this demographic of the Smash Bros. fanbase. As such, it potentially could eventually rise back into the limelight simply through positive word of mouth and dedicated fans. Project M is the only other game in the series that rivals Melee in terms of its depth, and its undoubtedly the most balanced of any installment.
Although Melee is a timeless classic, it is eventually going to be (or perhaps even starting to) get a little long in the tooth. There might possibly be a segment to the Melee fanbase that tires of the same kind of matchups for Melee or that not much else new is being done at the highest levels. As such, it could potentially serve as a gateway into them exploring Project M.
I feel one stigma that future iterations of Project M could mitigate is for it to further differentiate itself from Brawl. A common attack against Project M is that its "simply a mod". By perhaps changing Project M more from Brawl (perhaps replacing the intro for one down the line), as well as adding in more features not seen in Brawl, the game will help further solidify its own identity.
Project M in the coming years (this year and next) will probably have to live in Smash 4 and Melee's shadow. However, I think after 2016, the game if it has played its cards right and if it has benefited from good word of mouth, will become a mainstay to the competitive Smash Bros. scene, and even be beloved by those outside of it.
Ultimately, this is all up to the efforts of the PMDT and Project M fans. Even if Project M does not regain its 2013 highs, it still could be a part of the Smash Bros. fandom. Remember, as with Melee's resurgence, its all up to the dedication of those who play the game and the community it fosters.
So what are your thoughts with all this in mind?
Its by far Nintendo's worst selling home console.
