The Future of Mario.

[b0unc3]

Hello! My name is Enrique and my tag is Bounce. I'm a Mario main from SoCal, and I've been playing this game for about 2 years. I didn't start maining Mario until about the start of summer this year and it has been very fun summer since. I believe Mario has so much potential. However lacking KO power, decent approaches, and predictable recovery, he has brilliant outplay potential, amazing edge guard capability on most of the cast, decently fast movement that can force disadvantageous positions for an opponent, and other great tools in his kit.

What is the future of Mario? I'd like to see other fellow mains and others insight onto this topic.

Are cape approach timing mix-ups, reaction/read tech chasing optimization, using cape differently when being edge guarded, dash dancing/wavesurfing to bait opponents in neutral, edge cancels, etc., all things that have been explored within Mario already? Is it the end for evolving Mario's meta game?

Is dual maining Mario/Doc better from a match-up standpoint?

I refuse to believe the meta for Mario tech and other low-tier characters are done for. Innovation is what keeps this game moving forward. It is time to start dissecting the plumber and really dig down deep to see what can actually work and what should be left behind.

What I want from this thread is the discussion of improving Mario's neutral game, punishes, ledge options, recovery, etc., by proposing theories and debating on whether it's beneficial or not. We need more theory craft thread in probably every character's discussion board, otherwise, this game will just get old.

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What I mean by cape approach timing mix-ups is by using the cape whilst in neutral to throw off your approach timings and force the opponent to make a defensive option. Jumping with the cape to make your opponent think you are coming in with an aerial, forcing them to shield, jump away, roll, etc. This can do many things and you can do many things with it. It can make them retreat, giving you better positioning and/or stage control. If you can react to them being stuck in shield or some another defensive option, you can punish with grab/up-tilt/or x-aerial. You don't even have to commit to anything while you try this out. Even wavedashing back, fastfall shield, jump away, etc. are all other good options too. Especially when you have conditioned your opponent into thinking you will choose an offensive option after the cape mix-up. After using your own defensive option after the cape, you can shield after they try to react with attack or jump/input a lasting hitbox if they try to grab. KEEP IN MIND, this is only a mix-up, not a substitute for Mario's general neutral game. That said, is this a RELIABLE option for neutral?

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Optimizing Mario's tech chase options are key to his future in the meta. I have found that Mario can reliably tech chase spacies, Falcon, and even Sheik with his up throw and/or down throw. Using a combination of his ground movement and aerial movement, you can tech chase with grab, smash attacks, aerials, and tilts to finish or continue combos. Becoming a master of Mario's movement is key to this. Controlling your movement to stay spaced away from any wake-up options and using shields to cover get-up attacks/other attacks on wake-up, can lead to much more. Finding out what is optimal in a given situation is key to improving punish game. Whether that may be using a smash attack or grab after a tech read. And what attacks to use for that read and so on an so forth.

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Edge canceling is something of a stylistic aspect of Melee, but it is a technique that should be much more explored. Say an shielding opponent is on a platform. Can safe shield pressure be done with the help of edge canceled aerials? Can Mario extend his punished with edge-cancels effectively?

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I hope this starts some sort of discussion and I will do my best to update it with more theories and/or results. Please feel free to propose anything. No matter how stupid it may sound. We can make mistakes but the best way to deal with them is to learn from it and adapt. The game won't change unless we change it.

 

[LetsDuet]

Hey man. Saw your post on Reddit as well.

I think Mario has a small chance of making the top 30 if played extremely well, but I honestly can't see Mario winning a major. As a mario main myself, I've only made top 8 at some of my locals, and can't even take games off of Ontario's PR members.

I find matchups against Fox, ICs and Sheik easier than Falco, Marth, Peach, and Puff. We're talking about 30-70 matchups here, maybe 40-60 at most.

"Are cape approach timing mix-ups, reaction/read tech chasing optimization, using cape differently when being edge guarded, dash dancing/wavesurfing to bait opponents in neutral, edge cancels, etc., all things that have been explored within Mario already? Is it the end for evolving Mario's meta game?"
I'm sure that recovery mixups have yet to still be explored. I'm still experimenting on some mixups within my region. The probem is that Down-B has so much ending lag that it is so easy for the opponent to just dropzone bair you and it's an easy edgeguard. Down-Bing right after hit stun seems to be the best option if it's a far recovery. I personally still think the Mario meta has still more exploring to do. I really love A Rookie's gameplay, because not only is it pretty optimal, it's mostly mindgames as well. I love the psychological aspect of the game.

Up B Walljump when not hugging the wall fully is INSANELY hard to do, but it would be mind-boggling to see mario mains do them in matches. I've seen both KoopaTroopa and A Rookie do it on Yoshi's, which I think is a 1 frame window. If Mario mains (including myself) can consistently get it down, it would be pretty hype and definitely help with survivability.

Is dual maining Mario/Doc better from a match-up standpoint?
I prefer Mario over Doc because of better movement, but Doc would be a good counterpick for Peach and Puff if you don't kill with F Smash often. When F-air's on the table, it's a whole new matchup for the floatie imo.

"I refuse to believe the meta for Mario tech and other low-tier characters are done for. Innovation is what keeps this game moving forward. It is time to start dissecting the plumber and really dig down deep to see what can actually work and what should be left behind."
I personally think apart from Link in the tier list, it is pretty difficult for them to be viable. They just don't have enough kill moves, easy combo fodder, and poor neutral. They just can't get far in a major/super major imo.

Neutral:
Incorporating Wavedashing and Dash Dancing is so important. As Neutral is such an important part of the game, I feel like Mario has a hard time getting in. Any character above Mario on the tier list has a better neutral imo. If approaching with Full hop dair, the opponent can just dash dance or wave dash back, or bait it. Up Air is a terrible approach because it's easily CCable. Short Hop Fair is unsafe on shield, Nair is a decent approach, or reverse bair as well, but it's also unsafe on shield. WD Back is such an important tool to help counter an opponent. WD F Smash, D Smash, WD back grab is good too. It's all situational imo. Depends on the patterns that you can read from your opponent.

Punish game:
On all characters above you on the tier list, it's guaranteed to get something off a grab (or at least it's a good option). On Floaties, either a downthrow to nair, bair, upair, etc. on Spacies, upthrow up smash, up throw chaingrab to up air forward smash, etc. It's a lot to talk about. Maybe in another thread or something. Punish game is so hype with Mario as up-air juggling enemies is pretty cool. It sucks that neutral air is the finishing aerial after all of that (Example: Look at SchlimmShady's combo video vs. Dai, Falcon) I'll talk about it another time via another post or something. It's pretty complicated to explain, but I do a better job in game (I have no YouTube VODS of me online as of this post)

Ledge Options:
Ledge dashing is good, double jump dair, double jump fireball jump Up B (Must sweetspot or you'll get hit and be forced to SDI Tech), tournament winner (if you're avoiding Falco's SH AC bair), up air, etc. Mario's ledge options are pretty bad. Can be easily read.

"We need more theory craft thread in probably every character's discussion board, otherwise, this game will just get old."
Bro this game is 15 years old LOL. And it's definitely not going to die anytime soon in my opinion. The community's too pasionate about this game and fanbase will keep growing.

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"What I mean by cape approach timing mix-ups is by using the cape whilst in neutral to throw off your approach timings and force the opponent to make a defensive option. Jumping with the cape to make your opponent think you are coming in with an aerial, forcing them to shield, jump away, roll, etc. This can do many things and you can do many things with it. It can make them retreat, giving you better positioning and/or stage control. If you can react to them being stuck in shield or some another defensive option, you can punish with grab/up-tilt/or x-aerial. You don't even have to commit to anything while you try out. Even wavedashing back, fastfall shield, jump away, etc. are all other good options too. Especially when you have conditioned your opponent into thinking you will choose an offensive option after the cape mix-up. After using your own defensive option after the cape, you can shield after they try to react with attack or jump/input a lasting hitbox if they try to grab. KEEP IN MIND, this is only a mix-up, not a substitute for Mario's general neutral game. That said, is this a RELIABLE option for neutral?"

Jumping with cape is a terrible option imo. Feel free to try it, but from my personal experience, Mario is too floatie and has too much ending lag to throw out x-aerial and you'll get punished for it. It's pretty bad especially against spacies, because it's so easy for them to convert it to death. Definitely not a good option, but cool for style if you're facing a baddie on stream

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"Optimizing Mario's tech chase options are key to his future in the meta. I have found that Mario can reliably tech chase spacies, Falcon, and even Sheik with his up throw and/or down throw. Using a combination of his ground movement and aerial movement, you can tech chase with grab, smash attacks, aerials, and tilts to finish or continue combos. Becoming a master of Mario's movement is key to this. Controlling your movement to stay spaced away from any wake-up options and using shields to cover get-up attacks/other attacks on wake-up, can lead to much more. Finding out what is optimal in a given situation is key to improving punish game. Whether that may be using a smash attack or grab after a tech read. And what attacks to use for that read and so on an so forth."

Yeah, pretty much. Down-throw chaingrab on Sheik is so OP btw. Combos into F-Smash at anytime. if they DI up, it's an Up-Smash. I love it.
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"Edge canceling is something of a stylistic aspect of Melee, but it is a technique that should be much more explored. Say an shielding opponent is on a platform. Can safe shield pressure be done with the help of edge canceled aerials? Can Mario extend his punished with edge-cancels effectively?"

Hmmm Idk. It's never been explored. Can someone help me on this?
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I'm down for more theorycrafting. Schlimmshady has posted another theorycraft video which is pretty helpful. More character-specific theorycrafting would be cool as well. I personally can't wait for more hype sets with Mario on stream. I love playing Mario. I hope I answered your questions well.

 

[ChivalRuse]

Doesn't ARookie live in Socal? You should get together with him and get a handle on some of the stuff that he's already pioneered.

 

[LetsDuet]

Nah A Rookie lives around Pensacola, Florida now. He's been going to locals there and he's 2nd on their PR; he goes back and forth with their top player, Rice.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OYjKzFMOoz8
It's cool to see more Vods of A Rookie and Mario in general now. There's vids on Tallahassee Melee and TheFlirtySouth if you're interested.

 

[b0unc3]

LetsDuet

I don't really see cape-jumping being useless. It keeps you in the air for longer. It's a mindgame tactic. It throws off the normal timing of an aerial approach and could cause your opponent to do an action too early. It is a mix-up. Another mix-up within that is which way you are going to cape as you approach. Doing the opposite way can lead to a bair if they try to approach you mid-air. The cape ending lag is barely a problem tbh. It is hard to react to from what I have seen. They'd have to hard read something like that or just guess.

And another thing about shield pressure. A max spaced fair on shield is so safe. If they try to shield grab then it is free fsmash or grab, etc. Cross-up nair, and upair is also decently safe, if you shield in preparation for an aerial OoS from them. Cape turns them around in shield and that could also throw opponents off. They'd have to react pretty fast for them to throw out anything OoS.

The thing you said about upair being CCable is all apart of Mario's approach mix-up. Just from a jump towards an opponent, you can Tomahawk grab/upair/dair/cross-up nair/cape-jump/Tomahawk up tilt. Of course, these approaches depend on the match-up. But nonetheless, his neutral isn't entirely limited to dash dance baiting.

Ledge options are super underdeveloped. Caping opposite to the stage sets you up for a double jump bair, if they are too close to you. While the window to get it is very small, invincible ledge dash can lead to so many things.
Even though this is Doc, some of these options still apply according to this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cxu_bqAPu7w.

 

[LetsDuet]

Hmmm yeah, I'd agree with all your points actually, except the caping one. I'm still not confident in it as a mixup. I tried it in my local's bracket yesterday against spacies and it was still too slow. Consider facing a spacie who's dash dancing and waiting for me to approach first. It still puts me a very vulnerable position . Also it's important to note that the hitbox of the cape only faces the direction used and a very little portion of the body, so any high tier can just go under and back air, while being flipped around; it's not a favourable trade. If I ever get on stream I'll try it out, but I would only try out this option against newbies or once in a while. It's just unexplored and too risky in my opinion.

 

[Plunder]

Let's break down cape

total frames - 35
Hits on - 12-14

highly telegraphed starting frame 2

Normal practical reaction time to an unforeseen approach 18-25 frames
If you use this too much or become readable it's more like 12-15 frames

SH cape total frames - 42-45

Punishable on hit, or on shield (about -20 frames)

Leads to nothing on confirm

Scenarios -

1. You overshoot as you cape through them....none of your aerials can reach them. All they have to do at this point is follow and punish or wait for you to panic DJ and punish.
2. You cape and remain by them....any top tier can just OoS aerial or Upsmash before you can get an aerial out. Most of the time you are probably right in range to be grabbed (especially if you turn them), you may not think so but actually try caping as you are talking about in a match.
3. They aerial approach, let's say Nair, Uair, or Bair, it still hits you even if you cape them.

Melee moves too fast for something like capes in neutral. You're just gonna get smothered and overwhelmed by any good player who is technical.

For something to be a mind game it has to be able to condition or have some consequence if they don't prepare for it. Cape does neither since it has no hitstun, and leads to nothing. There is no reason to fear it in neutral, so it doesn't create any kind of mix up or mind game scenario. In fact if I'm playing a Mario I would prefer they use capes in neutral, cause then I know I'll be getting free hits at some point.

 

[j3ly]

any fox wavedashing on the spot within effective range can punish capes lag hard

my biggest problem with mario is this - we start the game even. I can outplay a fox of equal skill in neutral, score an optimal ledge combo (uthrows onto platorms, utilts, uthrow/utilt -> fsmash on the top platform) for a 0% to 90% combo. Fox doesn't even need to use his upB to get back to the stage.

optimal damage combos with platforms wont kill an opponent with good DI, so we have to use combos which arent optimal and end with (possibly) down smash to get them off stage and attempt to kill there. It sucks, I can win neutral, do a highly skillful and knowledgable combo and it doesn't have alot of effect - now the spacie is out of kill setup range, chilling at 90+ and mario is at 60% looking in death percent.

he isn't that great - take any given character, chances are they have him beat in most of the following areas:

speed
damage
kill moves
range
dashdance
threatening space
recovery (fox/pika/jiggs/peach/samus)

notice pika is pretty high up the overall tier list at all of these things - he is really good. same reason pichu/ylink are the best low tiers.

dont get me wrong y'boi is my favorite charcter after faclon, but he sits exactly where hax puts him on his tier list IMO. better than ganon.

 

[j3ly]

watching a rookie, he never continues his combos to the top platform - instead opting to use the back end hitbox of uair into fsmash on a side platform. he also tries to cover tech options with fair on platform alot which I don't agree with- 1/3rd the accuracy for an extra 5 or 6 percent, but you cant deny the man his results.

makes quite a difference, not enough to kill a fox with good DI but maybe a falco

 

[ChivalRuse]

I wouldn't rule out comboing to the top platform if the flow of your moves and expected DI warrants it. You can still fsmash from the top platform and potentially kill.

 

[FistMagic]

I wouldn't rule out comboing to the top platform if the flow of your moves and expected DI warrants it. You can still fsmash from the top platform and potentially kill.

wdf upsmash will also kill from top platform if you can read their tech

 

[iAmMatt]

Mario's got a lot of potential. A friend of mine has been playing Mario at our local and has been placing better than some foxes. Mario's a great m/u mixup, if that makes sense. A lot of players aren't used to playing against a mario, and a good one can stomp them easily.

 

[SockOnForums]

Pikachu used to be considered unviable, guess what happened?

the way I see it, you can succeed with any character given determination, dedication and hard work

Even characters like Bowser and Kirby, they may not be the best but don't let that stop you from having fun.

(And I don't know why I decided to leave a reply on a 5 year old discussion but whatever)

 

[Artic223]

i dunno mario is kinda sick