Event - E3 Invitational 2014 Super Smash Bros. Invitational Mock Draft

[mustard g&w]

Making up an NFL style Mock draft for the characters. Who do you think will be selected first? Once a character is chosen they are no longer selectable by another player.

Ruleset: http://e3.nintendo.com/invitational/info.html

My predictions:

1) Mega Man
2) Rosalina
3) Villager
4) Pikachu
5) Greninja
6) Mario
7) ZSS
8) Marth
9) Kirby
10) WFT
11) Little Mac
12) Pit
13) Samus
14) Donkey Kong
15) Link
16) Bowser

 

[Banjodorf]

Seems like Greninja and Mac are likely to be chosen first, one account of being both newcomers, and characters that seem easy to jump into.

Although depending on who gets to pick first, Ken would pick Marth first regardless.

However, could this just merge with the Invitational discussion thread?

 

[yahooda]

100% Fox. Only exceptions will be Ken picking Marth and Hugs picking Samus. (This is a joke, in case it's hard to tell)

 

[Banjodorf]

^^

Which is funny cuz last I checked, none of the competitors had expressed any interest in picking Fox.

 

[Morbi]

I honestly feel as though there is going to be a "battle" for Marth. There are quite a few Marth mains and Marth is a fairly consistent character in general.

 

[Aninymouse]

I honestly feel as though there is going to be a "battle" for Marth. There are quite a few Marth mains and Marth is a fairly consistent character in general.

Sounds like a job for Rock, Paper, Scissors.

 

[Deleted member]

Which is funny cuz last I checked, none of the competitors had expressed any interest in picking Fox.

SERIOUS?!?!

This tournament will be the best tournament ever.

Sorry, I'm just sick of seeing this character.

 

[Bedoop]

All Items, Little Mac only, Battlefield 4v4. Let's do it.

 

[Thirdkoopa]

I doubt Link will get picked.

Also Marth's already #1; two players are already fighting for him.

 

[Yomi's Biggest Fan]

Greninja seems more tournament worthy than the other newcomers. So I expect him to be the most played newcomer in the event.

 

[A Lucky Person]

^^

Which is funny cuz last I checked, none of the competitors had expressed any interest in picking Fox.

I know the players pretty well from watching tourneys, but do they have twitters and other social media accounts where they've discussed who they want to pick and whatnot?

I really would like to keep up with that.

 

[Deleted member]

I expect him to be the most played newcomer in the event.

That's not how the tournament works; unless I'm misunderstanding you.

Players choose 1 character and play that one character for the entire event.

 

[Banjodorf]

I know the players pretty well from watching tourneys, but do they have twitters and other social media accounts where they've discussed who they want to pick and whatnot?

I really would like to keep up with that.

From what I gathered from the Invitational Discussion Thread, most of them have said either on twitter or on streams which characters they're most interested in playing. Go a couple pages back in the thread and you should be able to find someone's list.

I think as far as newcomers, Greninja and...Rosalina, I think? had the most people interested in them.

 

[mustard g&w]

I should probably explain the rules for this event. Once a character is selected a player they are no longer selectable by another player and only the 16 characters in the op are selectable.

Edit: I'm dumb because there are 4 other characters that are selectable. Olimar, Zelda, Sonic, and Fox are also selectable characters. I'm going to have to go back and change my picks

 

[Banjodorf]

There should be 20 selectable characters, since that's how many were in the trailer listed as "playable." Only 10 characters are not playable at the invitational.

Which means that 4 characters are being left high and dry. I can almost guarantee one of them is going to be Sonic.

 

[greenluigiman2]

Took it a step further and ordered each player NFL Draft style, except rather than simply going worst to best, I thought it'd be in better taste to order them based on how big they are in the scene. Note: Don't get upset about how I rank them, it's not very exact, just an estimation.

1. PeachyHime - Rosalina & Luma
2. Rapture - Wii Fit Trainer
3. Crismas - Little Mac
4. Toph - Greninja
5. Lilo - Fox
6. MacD - Zelda
7. milktea - Mega Man
8. HugS - Samus
9. DJNintendo - Bowser
10. PewPewU - Marth
11. aMSa - Kirby
12. ZeRo - Pit
13. Hungrybox - Villager
14. PPMD -Zero Suit Samus
15. KDJ - Sonic
16. Ken - Mario

Pikachu, Link, Donkey Kong, and Olimar are left out.

And if the order was reversed, here's how I think it'd look:
1. Ken - Marth
2. KDJ - Fox
3. PPMD - Greninja
4. Hungrybox - Villager
5. ZeRo - Mega Man
6. aMSa - Little Mac
7. PewPewU - Rosalina & Luma
8. DJNintendo - Bowser
9. HugS - Samus
10. milktea - Kirby
11. MacD - Zelda
12. Lilo - Zero Suit Samus
13. Toph - Pit
14. Crismas - Olimar
15. Rapture - Wii Fit Trainer
16. PeachyHime - Mario

Pikachu, Link, Donkey Kong and Sonic are left out.

 

[BBG|Scott-Spain]

I feel at least one of the newcomers will be left out. (I really hope not, but I feel it will happen.) The top character pick is definitely Marth due to the number of Marth mains and how little he has changed. Fox kind of makes, but I don't think he'll be picked up that quickly. There are few interesting pair-ups like Hugs/Samus and Zero/Zamus, but I highly doubt people are going to "hate draft" characters to ensure specialists don't get them.

 

[Banjodorf]

If any newcomer doesn't make it, I think the only one with a chance of that happening is WFT, but I was pretty sure somebody had their eye on her, so even that may not be right.

 

[CloneHat]

People speculating about characters' tournament viability are wrong, sorry. Marth will win because he's "the same"? We've seen footage of each character doing like 1 special move, for all we know Marth could have Roy's sword and DK could now have 5 jumps.

 

[ImaClubYou]

You ****.

Why you place Bowser last?!?!

 

[Chiroz]

I doubt Rosalina will be picked. She seems too complicated to learn on the spot (while remaining fairly easy to learn to play against). Not something you would want to pick for the first time at the first ever Nintendo Tournament.



Villager also seems to have a non-obvious playstyle. He has very weird moves and combos which might take a while to learn and thus would not be a great choice.



You guys have to think that they will play these characters for the very first time, not only do the characters need to be good, but they need to be good without needing much practice or understanding of their own meta.

Little Mac, Greninja and WFT will probably be the top newcomer choices. Megaman will be picked, he isn't that complicated to learn and he has an "obvious meta". It might not be the most effective meta once Megaman is figured out in the future but at least its something to start with without having to play hours with the character first.

 

[greenluigiman2]

I doubt Rosalina will be picked. She seems too complicated to learn on the spot (while remaining fairly easy to learn to play against). Not something you would want to pick for the first time at the first ever Nintendo Tournament.

More than one player has expressed interest in her on Twitter. PeachyHime, Hungrybox and PewPewU. Rosalina is definitely going to get picked.

Villager also seems to have a non-obvious playstyle. He has very weird moves and combos which might take a while to learn and thus would not be a great choice.

Hungryboox implied that Villager is his pick.

 

[Amazing Ampharos]

The order of the players is obviously going to be a dominant factor in what happens here. Marth is the most obvious situation; he probably gets taken by one of the first few players no matter what. Then players who might have taken Marth will instead go for someone else, and those players likely have different secondary picks. A few things are certain in terms of who gets picked; Samus is virtually guaranteed to be used since Hugs is one of the players and he'll take her if he's not beaten to the punch. A similar analysis could probably apply to quite a few characters. However, for a lot of lower end picks (more complex newcomers, Bowser, etc.), their fate largely rests with the lottery.

I will say that, as Melee heavy as this field is, it's still kinda crazy to me to suggest Olimar won't be taken by someone. He was a top character in Brawl; Olimar not being picked would be like Fox not being picked. A lot of people know how to play him, and he has a history of being strong. He'll be used. The characters I consider most marginal here are the long term bad characters in this (Bowser, Mario, Zelda), the two more difficult newcomers (Villager and Rosalina), and Zero Suit Samus who was good in Brawl but was generally heavily neglected by everyone but actual ZSS mains. Any of them might be picked based on the order of drawing though; we'll have to see.

 

[Morbi]

The order of the players is obviously going to be a dominant factor in what happens here. Marth is the most obvious situation; he probably gets taken by one of the first few players no matter what. Then players who might have taken Marth will instead go for someone else, and those players likely have different secondary picks. A few things are certain in terms of who gets picked; Samus is virtually guaranteed to be used since Hugs is one of the players and he'll take her if he's not beaten to the punch. A similar analysis could probably apply to quite a few characters. However, for a lot of lower end picks (more complex newcomers, Bowser, etc.), their fate largely rests with the lottery.

I will say that, as Melee heavy as this field is, it's still kinda crazy to me to suggest Olimar won't be taken by someone. He was a top character in Brawl; Olimar not being picked would be like Fox not being picked. A lot of people know how to play him, and he has a history of being strong. He'll be used. The characters I consider most marginal here are the long term bad characters in this (Bowser, Mario, Zelda), the two more difficult newcomers (Villager and Rosalina), and Zero Suit Samus who was good in Brawl but was generally heavily neglected by everyone but actual ZSS mains. Any of them might be picked based on the order of drawing though; we'll have to see.

Bowser is essentially guaranteed as well. DJNintendo is most likely going to pick him, I am not entirely sure if he expressed an interest. However, he is the preeminent Bowser main and Bowser is apparently his second favorite Nintendo character according to the player profiles.

 

[Amazing Ampharos]

Bowser is essentially guaranteed as well. DJNintendo is most likely going to pick him, I am not entirely sure if he expressed an interest. However, he is the preeminent Bowser main and Bowser is apparently his second favorite Nintendo character according to the player profiles.

Yeah, and upon further review, apparently one of the players actually is a ZSS player in Brawl? That would lock her in pretty much (ZSS is weird and very hard to fight if you don't know the match-up... and most Melee-centric players won't). It might be possible to narrow this down a lot if you had good knowledge of all 16 players, but I'll admit that I really don't.

 

[Chiroz]

More than one player has expressed interest in her on Twitter. PeachyHime, Hungrybox and PewPewU. Rosalina is definitely going to get picked.


Hungryboox implied that Villager is his pick.

Were those tweets about the invitational specifically? Because I also am very interested in playing Rosalina, but I personally wouldn't pick her for a tournament before I had the chance to practice even once with her (Same for Villager, but to a much lesser extent).

Also you listed HBox twice, he can't pick more than 1 character.

 

[greenluigiman2]

Were those tweets about the invitational specifically? Because I also am very interested in playing Rosalina, but I personally wouldn't pick her for a tournament before I had the chance to practice even once with her (Same for Villager, but to a much lesser extent).

Yes, they were specifically about the invitational.

 

[Morbi]

Were those tweets about the invitational specifically? Because I also am very interested in playing Rosalina, but I personally wouldn't pick her for a tournament before I had the chance to practice even once with her (Same for Villager, but to a much lesser extent).

I believe those tweets were after the announcement, so the context would support that notion. It is not going to be a serious tournament though, so character selection is not going to be entirely relevant. Stages are random, items are on, the mode is FFA.

 

[Bedoop]

Hey, atleast we have 3 chances to see at least one person's Final Smash, if it wasn't revealed already. (Olimar...)

 

[BBG|Scott-Spain]

Based on what the players have been saying, here's my draft order:

Greninja
Marth
Rosalina

Mega Man
Little Mac
Samus
Villager
Wii Fit Trainer

Zelda
Kirby
Bowser
ZSS

Fox
Mario
Pikachu
Pit
Link
Olimar
Sonic
Donkey Kong

I split them up in tiers to signify the likelihood of characters that will get picked.

 

[CF711]

Pretty much guaranteed to be chosen:
Marth
Greninja
Rosalina
Villager
Mega Man
Bowser
Fox
Little Mac
Samus
WFT
Zelda

Probably will be chosen:
ZSS
Mario
Pikachu
Kirby
Pit

May be chosen:
Link
Sonic
DK

Probably won't be chosen
Olimar

Reasoning:
For the guaranteed ones I put them there because they are people's mains from previous games (Ken, DJNintendo, Hugs), players have expressed interest in playing them (Hbox, PeachyHime, PPU), or are newcomers. The ones that probably will be chosen are characters that have recently been upgraded or have stayed relatively consistent throughout the games. Those that may be chosen are characters that have underperformed or been considered low tier in previous games. The ones that probably won't be chosen have been seemingly nerfed.

 

[greenluigiman2]

I'd switch Zelda and Pikachu because MacD wants Zelda.

 

[CF711]

I'd switch Zelda and Pikachu because MacD wants Zelda.

He does? I tried looking through Twitter, but didn't see anything.

 

[greenluigiman2]

There was a problem fetching the tweet

 

[CF711]

There was a problem fetching the tweet

Thanks I was unable to find him for whatever reason.

 

[BBG|Scott-Spain]

Not sure how mods feel about me necroing this thread, but I wanted to update this with results and a couple interesting tidbits...

The characters that didn't get in were:
-Sonic
-DK
-Link
-Samus

Ironically, DK and Sonic were well-received among the tournament players. (Based on videos, Link isn't looking too bad either.) It was the format that kept them from being picked, unfortunately. Samus being a disappointment was definitely the biggest surprise to everyone, especially when you consider the tournament format and the type of players involved. (This must mean she REALLY sucks.)

The draft order was:
1. Peachyhime – Villager
2. Hungrybox – Kirby
3. DJ Nintendo – Bowser
4. Milktea – Pikachu
5. Zero – Zero Suit Samus
6. Hugs – Megaman
7. PPMD – Fox
8. Toph – Pit
9. Crismas – Zelda
10. Ken – Marth
11. PewPewU – Mario
12. MacD – Greninja
13. aMSa – Olimar
14. KoreanDJ – Rosalina
15. Lilo – Wii Fit Trainer
16. Rapture – Little Mac

I believe we all assumed Villager would at least be a high tier pick. Looking more into the moveset, it made perfect sense. In fact, I'd say we should have valued Villager higher.

Some character choices were interesting and bit surprising. DJ Nintendo having such an early ballot and going with Bowser surprised me the most, but it definitely made the event entertaining. Hungrybox's Kirby was quite logical from a conceptual standpoint, nevermind how good Kirby is now. Unquestionably, the biggest surprise was how late the newcomers were picked, especially Little Mac. PPMD was actually going to go with him, but forgot he was still an option. (I'm sure he's not regretting that one...) Greninja being picked 12th was also unforeseen since he was a top tier choice amongst us.

Despite how much sideswiped our picks, it all starts to make sense when you look at an early tier list (provided by meleeiton.me):

Top tier
- Kirby
- Pit

High Tier
- Villager
- Zero Suit Samus
- Mario
- Wii Fit Trainer

Mid Tier
- Pikachu
- Sonic
- Fox
- Marth
- Greninja

Low Tier
- Mega Man
- Zelda

Bottom Tier
- Little Mac (for FFA, TERRIBLE). Might be god-like on FD
- Bowser (DJN’s opinion)
???
- Olimar
- Rosalina
- Donkey Kong
- Link
(Samus is missing. I'm assuming she is on the bottom.)

As you can see, there is a bit of a correlation between character picks and this tier list based on player opinions.

All in all, this was a very fun experiment. Can't wait until the next invitational!