Sumting Sumting Maifa | Game Over

[ranmaru]

Thanks, I misread your post. Now on your question to Sabrar, I think the better question is: What do you think of their individual play besides the role? Feel free to answer this after Sabrar answers.

 

[Sabrar]

Would you rather lynch them today, or keep them on the back noose?

Today, that's why I'm voting him.

 

[LaserGuy]

Today, that's why I'm voting him.

I think it probably makes more sense to have 3DS reveal the Shadow at the start of a day phase, so we have access to whatever information that person can provide. 3DS is consistent and confident in what he has claimed. I don't think there's a lot of value in speculating on exactly how this role works, but I think he is going to be able to produce someone.

 

[ranmaru]

Laser, can you explain your Xivii read? Also, why do you lean scum on me?

 

[Z25]

What as Ninja's alignment in that game
there were a lot of words but I dont feel the post itself added anything new.
Kind of weird considering you were one of the people they said looked town tho you hadn't posted.
Also the post seems needlessly wordy for what you were actually saying.

I think that rand town line was from the "shadow"?

As I said earlier this is just too far out there to be a mafia alignered role.
Fake claim?
Just doesn't feel like it feel needed.

In that game he was town. What basically happened was this:

me, laser and 3ds were in a neighborhood. Day one he claimed he was in the neighborhood and listed us without asking first, which led people to be confused as to why he do that. Things kinda of snowballed from there with him forgetting he had a actual role pm, confusing another player to be in the neighborhood which led to speculation that was his mate, and then he didn’t defend himself. They were all around odd behaviors that made him a lot more suspicious.

He stated never playing anything but vanilla mafia till coming here so that kinda of explained things. But still it’s not impossible that he learned from his mistakes to better a play. It just made me skeptical of trusting when he withheld important info before for no reason.

 

[BoomFrog]

#2, as I said above in #311.

My bad, I hadn't seen your #311 when I posted. Then I'll just say, I find this an ridiculous plan from a hypothetical scum team, and that scenario is even less likely then 3ds getting a perfect power by chance. What is the mafia's plan here? 3ds has proven that he doesn't have the wherewithal to pull off a complicated scam. No mafia mate would trust him with pulling off such a bizarre claim. And he's promised to pull sometime outside the game into thread sometime around D3. If he can't do that then he's prepared his own noose with zero reason. Therefore it's very likely he really can perform such a ridiculous feat. I am very confident that you are wrong and should reconsider.

Side note to everyone else: this is town sabrar. He really doesn't like it when mods do things in a way that he doesn't agree with. But if he is on a large mafia team (4+) he'd know 3ds isn't mafia and wouldn't be so riled up about this scenario.

 

[LaserGuy]

So another quick question off of that: how are you justifying your rankings at the moment? Are they mostly just gut reads at this point, or are they more substantial?

I have some reasoning behind all of them. Some of them are more on the level of gut read, others are more fleshed out. Before the end of the day phase I will put everything together into an ordered list of some kind.

Laser, can you explain your Xivii read? Also, why do you lean scum on me?

Xivii's questioning and tone in the early part of the day felt townie to me. Don't have too much else to go off of at this point, but nothing I've seen has concerned me so far. I may be overestimating my intuition on him, but after Crossover I've never found that I had too much trouble reading Xivii.

For your part, I didn't like #214 in particular for reasons we've already discussed. More generally I am uncomfortable with the fact that I don't have a good sense of where you stand right now. I understand that you said you would hold back to help keep the thread more manageable (which I do appreciate), but the sense I get is that you're more disengaged with what is actually happening in the thread, and are more content just to ask associative questions of the form "player X, how to do you feel about player Y"? I am curious to see your reads when they come about.

 

[Z25]

I almost wonder if the shadow is actual some weird third party now. The statistics side of things being bought up and simple mistakes made by 3ds last game really have me confused on what I should believe here. I am still more leaning towards the idea that we are probably not getting played here and such a crazy claim is true. Because at the end of the day statistics doesn’t really matter. Utopian is a great example. He rolled scum so many times in a row that it’s pretty insane. I’m not the best at math so I can’t calculate those odds but it has to be low.

But still it happened, and I’m thinking a similar crazy statistic is at play here and 3ds just got really lucky with a role that helps him.

 

[BoomFrog]

LaserGuy I find your reasons about Trisscar reasonable, but you need to remember Triss is a strange sort of newbie since they are experienced in another format. Specifically, if claiming VT early is a good scum strategy in their home format then that fits with them claiming overeagerly here.

I do have to say, I think I'm tilted by them blatantly ignoring me so it's hard to be objective. What is your opinion about their tactic of ignoring my hard questions?

Trisscar In the games of Mafia that you've played outside of forums, is it a common scum strategy to false claim D1?

 

[ranmaru]

LogicoftheVI Who is scum? Why are you catching up in bursts, rather than in one go so you can play in the present?

 

[Deadbananas]

Hi all, I will be working on making a reads list for a bit but I'm here and will try to answer any questions.

 

[LaserGuy]

LaserGuy I find your reasons about Trisscar reasonable, but you need to remember Triss is a strange sort of newbie since they are experienced in another format. Specifically, if claiming VT early is a good scum strategy in their home format then that fits with them claiming overeagerly here.

My general feeling is that forum mafia is sufficiently different from IRL mafia that they shouldn't really be treated as the same game. But yes, it's possible that there's some specific setup where mafia might attempt to do this. I don't think it would necessarily ever be a good strategy, but it might be one that happens in a particular meta regardless. I can't rule it out, it's just the preponderance of evidence points in the other direction.

If Triss does not improve, feel free to remind me of that game where I incorrectly towncleared scum!Vicarin based on some pre-game questioning.

I do have to say, I think I'm tilted by them blatantly ignoring me so it's hard to be objective.

FWIW, I find your frustration townie.

What's your general read on the room right now? Not on any specific player, just looking for some observations about the game as a whole.

What is your opinion about their tactic of ignoring my hard questions?

I don't disagree that it looks bad. But there's lots of reasons that they may not have answered that aren't explicitly malevolent.

Trisscar : Why aren't you answering BoomFrog's questions?

 

[LaserGuy]

Pythag : Who is on your radar as possible scum at the moment?

 

[Sabrar]

I mostly agree with both of your points but I think there is strong evidence that 3dsninja really is in contact with someone else who is giving them advice.

Therefore it's very likely he really can perform such a ridiculous feat. I am very confident that you are wrong and should reconsider.

Okay. How do you reconcile me being right about how the mod would not create such a role (we can skip the low chance part) and Ninja actually being able to do what he claimed? You said you 'mostly agree'. Why not fully?

 

[Pythag]

Pythag : Who is on your radar as possible scum at the moment?

Phone posting, so sorry for brevity. I hope to have a more full reads list soon:

These three are getting my hackles up:
trisscar
Bananas
Sabrar

 

[Pythag]

Spak I think you asked me earlier why I was have a town read or lean or whatever from LG.
I didn’t have much to go on that, just tonally i likes his opening.

he has been much more absent though, which has weakened that some

 

[Deadbananas]

Town Read:
Pythag- I like his clarifying questions and find myself agreeing with a lot of his stances and the ones I don't i think come from a town place. Will admit a bit of gut feeling boosts this slot up.

Town leans:
Sabrar- his suspicion of ninja comes from a town mindset with analysis of mod options. His other posts look to have no bias, he supports logical arguments and refutes illogical posts or contradictions.

Boomguy- his push on triss feels townie and from what some people has said his aggressiveness isn't scum indicative and he can flip flop. He has pressed triss to answer questions several times and seemed to get genuinely frustrated when triss brushes them off which feels townie to me.

Mal- most of his content has been interacting with Triss or ninja, but he has been going about it in a way that fits his innocent meta rather than scum meta in VC games I have played with him. As scum Mal usually doesn't interact with people he is trying to push as much and more tries to shade them from a distance or lead others to make accusations mainly. He doesn't seem to be doing that here.

Null towns:

Logic- a lot of his posts are on the ground trying to solve things and giving his opinion freely.

Ranmuru- his push on me appears to come from a place of town, he seems to be playing very aggressively but focusing on clarification and getting others opinions.

Spak- his interactions with Triss feels town, his wall post brings good points and content to get a convo going.

Null:
Xivii- hasn't contributed much from what I can see, mostly just small talk and a few votes with small reasoning and no real pushes.

Bessie- has had a few good long posts but overall nothing has pinged me either way in them

Jack- while he has a lot of posts, they mostly seem to be very casual which they themselves had admitted.

Handorin- his meta seems to be kinda scummy so I'm having a hard time reading him, normally would be a nullscum but some of his posts have felt more townie.

Laser- has had a some posts that pinged me more town, specifically posts on Z25 but his take on Triss feels off to me and very dismissive.

Nullscum:
Z25- has been mostly hanging out and addressing side issues about mechanics and the like the majority of the game. They've had a few good questions and analysis, their reads list was mostly based on meta for all their hard stsnces so since I don't know the meta of anyone here cept Mal I can't go much into that. I don't like that they only have one person in the scum category and its a null scum.

Scumlean:
Trisscar- their defence to the pushes on them has been very weak for someone who claims to have a lot of experience. They have also contradicted themselves several times and seem to be more interested in appearing town then solving the game. Other than that business they haven't really contributed to the game in productive ways either.

3ds- first off, outside of the whole shadow business his play has been very weird. But taking the whole shadow business into account it makes 0 sense. Beanies what sabrar has already pointed out that being able to choose anyone would be ridiculous and makes way more sense to not be the truth, besides the host mentioned their were no unnaoncued mentors. If 3ds was town and had a town shadow they should be posting as much as possible and getting more reads out from both them and their shadow. This would give town a huge boost but instead they have stayed in the shadows and mainly been defensive while only commenting on triss and Pythag in small ways. Atleast the Pythag part had some reasoning but the thing on triss was just him saying a few times lay of Triss without really giving any reasoning even when asked.

Vote 3DSNinja

 

[Deadbananas]

Sorry for the wall post any fellow mobile users

 

[Sabrar]

Spak , Deadbananas : you can use spoilers to hide walls if you're worried about that.

 

[ranmaru]

That is a good reads post. I feel better about Banana, and I like the insight on Malak. Unvote: Drafting a reads list later today as well.

 

[Deadbananas]

Ah sorry, next time I'll use those

 

[LaserGuy]

Sabrar : 3DS is claiming a PR in a low-powered setup. Regardless of how ridiculous his claim may appear on the surface, we should give mafia first refusal on whether or not they want to shoot him. The benefits to keeping him around far outweigh those of lynching him at this juncture.

he has been much more absent though, which has weakened that some

How do you feel about my actual content, rather than my activity level (which, if you actually look, has not basically changed at all since the start of the game)?

 

[Z25]

Town Read:
Pythag- I like his clarifying questions and find myself agreeing with a lot of his stances and the ones I don't i think come from a town place. Will admit a bit of gut feeling boosts this slot up.

Town leans:
Sabrar- his suspicion of ninja comes from a town mindset with analysis of mod options. His other posts look to have no bias, he supports logical arguments and refutes illogical posts or contradictions.

Boomguy- his push on triss feels townie and from what some people has said his aggressiveness isn't scum indicative and he can flip flop. He has pressed triss to answer questions several times and seemed to get genuinely frustrated when triss brushes them off which feels townie to me.

Mal- most of his content has been interacting with Triss or ninja, but he has been going about it in a way that fits his innocent meta rather than scum meta in VC games I have played with him. As scum Mal usually doesn't interact with people he is trying to push as much and more tries to shade them from a distance or lead others to make accusations mainly. He doesn't seem to be doing that here.

Null towns:

Logic- a lot of his posts are on the ground trying to solve things and giving his opinion freely.

Ranmuru- his push on me appears to come from a place of town, he seems to be playing very aggressively but focusing on clarification and getting others opinions.

Spak- his interactions with Triss feels town, his wall post brings good points and content to get a convo going.

Null:
Xivii- hasn't contributed much from what I can see, mostly just small talk and a few votes with small reasoning and no real pushes.

Bessie- has had a few good long posts but overall nothing has pinged me either way in them

Jack- while he has a lot of posts, they mostly seem to be very casual which they themselves had admitted.

Handorin- his meta seems to be kinda scummy so I'm having a hard time reading him, normally would be a nullscum but some of his posts have felt more townie.

Laser- has had a some posts that pinged me more town, specifically posts on Z25 but his take on Triss feels off to me and very dismissive.

Nullscum:
Z25- has been mostly hanging out and addressing side issues about mechanics and the like the majority of the game. They've had a few good questions and analysis, their reads list was mostly based on meta for all their hard stsnces so since I don't know the meta of anyone here cept Mal I can't go much into that. I don't like that they only have one person in the scum category and its a null scum.

Scumlean:
Trisscar- their defence to the pushes on them has been very weak for someone who claims to have a lot of experience. They have also contradicted themselves several times and seem to be more interested in appearing town then solving the game. Other than that business they haven't really contributed to the game in productive ways either.

3ds- first off, outside of the whole shadow business his play has been very weird. But taking the whole shadow business into account it makes 0 sense. Beanies what sabrar has already pointed out that being able to choose anyone would be ridiculous and makes way more sense to not be the truth, besides the host mentioned their were no unnaoncued mentors. If 3ds was town and had a town shadow they should be posting as much as possible and getting more reads out from both them and their shadow. This would give town a huge boost but instead they have stayed in the shadows and mainly been defensive while only commenting on triss and Pythag in small ways. Atleast the Pythag part had some reasoning but the thing on triss was just him saying a few times lay of Triss without really giving any reasoning even when asked.

Vote 3DSNinja

I don’t have Boom as null scum, he’s a scum lean, that means he’s not in the null category. I also stated how I could put triss in the possible scum category as well based on boom’s flip. And it’s pretty hard to justify multiple scum on day one in a 16 player game.

To think the game would be solved like a quarter of the way( depends on the amount of scum in this), on day one would be a pretty big stretch for me. And it doesn’t feel right for me to go in on multiple new users who I know nothing about and just say one or more of them are scum.

I judge slots based on actions in past games first then their actions in a current game. Because without the former you can’t strengthen the later imo.

 

[ranmaru]

3DSNinja Why aren't you participating actively in discussion? Why aren't you giving your own opinion?

 

[3DSNinja]

The reason I'm not being super active... is because I did that last game, and I got lynched. P
My shadow said the reason they ain't providing a reads list is because there's far too many nulls.
...ugh, I'm gonna be forced to bring them in and lose a huge advantage... damn it.

 

[3DSNinja]

I just... I really don't have many thoughts, other then being suspicious of Sabrar, and Pythag didn't have a great opener.

 

[Z25]

Sabrar : 3DS is claiming a PR in a low-powered setup. Regardless of how ridiculous his claim may appear on the surface, we should give mafia first refusal on whether or not they want to shoot him. The benefits to keeping him around far outweigh those of lynching him at this juncture.



How do you feel about my actual content, rather than my activity level (which, if you actually look, has not basically changed at all since the start of the game)?

What makes you think this is a low powered setup?

This is a sixteen and player game and osie has ran multiple set ups across boards with multiple power roles each time that can help out both sides.

Hell ninja himself already refutes that very idea. A completely third party person can view this game and play his slot like a chess board. If that’s true I would not define that as lower powered based on the mechanical side Of things that can change

 

[3DSNinja]

Also Sabrar, that is just ridiculously risky. I already got Day 1 lynched last game, why would I as mafia go with a ridiculous gambit that would immediately raise suspicion on me, when I would already probably get voted up anyways?

 

[Z25]

Like that above post feels like TMI. I don’t see anything in the OP to indicate low power setup. Feels like laser might know more then we think and reminds of lay game in which it was a lower power setup and jack controlled pretty much everything by distributing as scum the powers to whoever each night

 

[Z25]

Also Sabrar, that is just ridiculously risky. I already got Day 1 lynched last game, why would I as mafia go with a ridiculous gambit that would immediately raise suspicion on me, when I would already probably get voted up anyways?

This is a fair point but to also be fair laser kinda of did a ridiculous gambit last game and lived because he used it as a town tactic prior which had older players trust him more while others were a little skeptical .

 

[LaserGuy]

What makes you think this is a low powered setup?

The game was explicitly advertised as such.

This is relatively low power.

 

[Pythag]

Sabrar : 3DS is claiming a PR in a low-powered setup. Regardless of how ridiculous his claim may appear on the surface, we should give mafia first refusal on whether or not they want to shoot him. The benefits to keeping him around far outweigh those of lynching him at this juncture.

This is a good take.

How do you feel about my actual content, rather than my activity level (which, if you actually look, has not basically changed at all since the start of the game)?

Mostly null? without a reread, nothing has pinged me super hard, save for what you just said about 3DS.
Understand I didn't say I was scum reading you, just that my initial town feeling had died a touch.

 

[Z25]

The game was explicitly advertised as such.

Is this in the sign up thread? It’s odd because op also suggests some big roles could be at play:

• Acceptable roles include but are not limited to variations on Millers, Godfathers, Framers, Tailors, Lawyers, Ninjas, and Strongmen.
• Roles may exist which change a player's target. A player will always learn if their target has been changed, but will not learn of their new target's identity unless they learn information about their target

 

[Sabrar]

Also Sabrar, that is just ridiculously risky. I already got Day 1 lynched last game, why would I as mafia go with a ridiculous gambit that would immediately raise suspicion on me, when I would already probably get voted up anyways?

I don't know. I certainly wouldn't do it but I'm aware that most people don't play like me.

 

[3DSNinja]

I wouldn't do that. I don't pull gambits... ever. I just give out my thoughts and that's it.

Last game I didn't pull any ridiculous gambits, why would I try that when I already can easily be suspicious?

 

[Pythag]

Is this in the sign up thread? It’s odd because op also suggests some big roles could be at play:

• Acceptable roles include but are not limited to variations on Millers, Godfathers, Framers, Tailors, Lawyers, Ninjas, and Strongmen.
• Roles may exist which change a player's target. A player will always learn if their target has been changed, but will not learn of their new target's identity unless they learn information about their target

yeah, but it also says

I have definitely shown this setup to another human being. Trust me! Why would I lie to you? (This is sarcasm. I have not shown this setup to another human being. This may change, but probably not for more than one human being.)

So, I think objectivity might be thrown out the window.

 

[LaserGuy]

Sumting Sumting Maifa​

16 players

I have definitely shown this setup to another human being. Trust me! Why would I lie to you? (This is sarcasm. I have not shown this setup to another human being. This may change, but probably not for more than one human being.)

This is relatively low power.

Um... it's right here.

 

[ranmaru]

Probably posted as a red herring. I think that's there to deter us from breaking the game via roles, and focus on individual play.

 

[Deadbananas]

Null to Scum lean:
Boom:

I don’t have Boom as null scum, he’s a scum lean, that means he’s not in the null category.

My apologies, I saw a separate category for town lean and null to town lean and assumed null to scum lean meant nullscum

 

[Handorin]

...
Town leans:
Sabrar- his suspicion of ninja comes from a town mindset with analysis of mod options. His other posts look to have no bias, he supports logical arguments and refutes illogical posts or contradictions.
...

Handorin- his meta seems to be kinda scummy so I'm having a hard time reading him, normally would be a nullscum but some of his posts have felt more townie.
...

Scumlean:
Trisscar- their defence to the pushes on them has been very weak for someone who claims to have a lot of experience. They have also contradicted themselves several times and seem to be more interested in appearing town then solving the game. Other than that business they haven't really contributed to the game in productive ways either.

3ds- first off, outside of the whole shadow business his play has been very weird. But taking the whole shadow business into account it makes 0 sense. Beanies what sabrar has already pointed out that being able to choose anyone would be ridiculous and makes way more sense to not be the truth, besides the host mentioned their were no unnaoncued mentors. If 3ds was town and had a town shadow they should be posting as much as possible and getting more reads out from both them and their shadow. This would give town a huge boost but instead they have stayed in the shadows and mainly been defensive while only commenting on triss and Pythag in small ways. Atleast the Pythag part had some reasoning but the thing on triss was just him saying a few times lay of Triss without really giving any reasoning even when asked.

Vote 3DSNinja

These highlights seem odd to me. Seems like an unwarranted defense of Sabrar while exaggerating the content of the posts, and puts them in a town lean which seems like a stronger indicator than "null town". I'm finding it hard to believe anyone has that strong of a town feeling out of Sabrar's play. I'd have half a mind to say these two would be scummates together.

Then there's his read on me. He almost copies my own summary of my play style. Keeps me town lean to try and keep me around. Like, what does it even mean that I'd normally be null scum, but some posts seem townie? What's the "normal" being referenced?

The reads on Triss and 3ds seem like low hanging lynch fruit. The general consensus seems Triss is newbie townie, meaning new to the format. So there's overemphasis on total experience rather than format experience. 3DS has a unique roll, which could easily be verified and basically confirm town (My assumption is that it'd be way too powerful a scum role). I think it's unwarranted to push for a lynch here this early on 3DS, or Triss for that matter.