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Sumting Sumting Maifa | Game Over
- Thread starter osieorb18
- Start date
Xivii
caterpillar feet
You get lynch and not lynch for today. There's not enough with a player list this size to have a reasonable list.
Handorin
Smash Hero
- Joined
- Dec 2, 2005
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- 6,013
By prove my super towniness, do you mean post in a manner acceptable to you?Handorin Are you going to actually redeem yourself and prove your super towniness D3? Or are you just planning to slowly burn and then be lynched at or near LYLO?
Cause if so, nah.
Handorin
Smash Hero
- Joined
- Dec 2, 2005
- Messages
- 6,013
LaserGuy
Smash Ace
Reads:
Mala: Had a Town Lean on them in #55. This was mostly based on Mala's early tone and reactions feeling very relaxed and natural. Since then Mala's content has been basically forgettable. I don't recall any particularly strong stances or pushes out of them. Dropping down to nullTown.
Handorin: Had a scum feeling from them in #93. I felt that their push on Jackrito (#88 was throwing shade since Jackrito was discussing the issue at hand and it felt to me that it had been established at this point that 3DS was in fact talking about a role, so this felt misplaced. Subsequent discussions have led me to believe is probably a meta-mismatch issue and Handorin did really think that Jackrito was wasting time here. Handorin's more recent posting, notably his push on Deadbananas, have led me to reconsider him and I now have him as a weak Town lean.
Logic: Their approach to the game and posts have felt very townie to me. I had them as Town lean in #207 and that still feels about right to me.
BoomFrog: I didn't care for his aggressive tone in #207, but subsequent posting, especially his frustration resulting from his interaction with Triss (discussed in #332) has led me to believe that he is probably Town.
Jackrito: Has been coasting a fair bit at this stage I feel. I don't really have any strong pings from Jack, but nothing stands out as objectionable. Based on his self-reflection in Oasis, it's more likely that this is his Town meta, but based on that same game, it's also obvious Jack's scum and Town metas aren't so terribly different, so I'm putting him at nullTown.
Z25: Had an early ping from his opening that I mentioned in #63. I didn't pursue this much at the time as their explanation for it seemed plausible, but I was keeping an eye on Z25. As discussed in #291, their content seemed quite weak to me in that they were mostly active, but also pretty much content to just focus on dissecting the plausibility of 3DS' claim rather than actually advancing the game state. Z25's reads seem very non-commital and vague. Still happy with the scum lean here.
Ranmaru: I had some suspicions about Ranmaru starting in #227 in how he went about reading Triss, namely that he said he had Triss as null (bad Town) or "likely" playing dumb (mafia). To me this would imply that Ran actually thought Triss was more likely mafia than not, which should not lead to a null read as it did in this post. This is similar to the tell that Jackrito made in early D1 of Oasis where he voted me despite saying that he didn't see a scum motivation for my actions. Ran also values consistency and clarity in his play, so this seems uncharacteristically sloppy for him.
There's also this weird exchange ending with #370. I assert that the setup is (relatively) low powered, based on mod comments, and Ran believes that this is the mod deliberately throwing us off. Now, as I mention, this setup is explicitly non-******* and I really feel that the mod posting should be taken as gospel here. That aside, what's more interesting is that given the information publicly available, I think it's a bit stretch for Ran to leap to the conclusion that power level of the setup is not exactly what is state. As Town, Ran would have, at best, two claims and his own role PM to work with. One of those claims is VT, the other is for a power that Ran seems to believe, as per his read on 3DS in #411, is probably a fabrication. Even if Ran were a very strong PR himself (unlikely given Ran is say, I don't really feel there's enough information out there for him to concretely say that the setup is not going to be as the mod described. This leads me to believe that Ran has TMI about the setup, and is possibly making this claim based on not only his own power level, but also that of his scummmates, which would give him a much more complete picture than Town would have.
Regarding Ran vs. Xivii, I'm not really going to attempt to work through all of the arguments and meta there. Suffice to say I think Ran is scum independently of this exchange, and I think Xivii is more likely Town independent of it.
Trisscar: As I started in #237 and #291, I get a newbie Town vibe from Triss... The early claim, the weird reactions, it all pretty much fits the archetype. Now I will note that Triss obviously is not strictly newbie Town, as they obviously have played similar games to mafia and have a lot of theoretical knowledge of how different roles interact (#377). That said, my understanding is that Triss is used to playing open or semi-open, power-heavy setups where the meta heavily focuses on early claims and role interactions, and in that sense, I think a lot of the newbie Town meta still applies to him since the focus is not really so much on reads or analysis per se. I also think that a player from this meta landscape is unlikely to fake claim VT early in the game as mafia, as they would want to keep their options open. I think the claim is most likely genuine.
3DS: Ultimately, I think any questions about 3DS are going to have to be resolved one way or another by 3DS' claim. He's made a very specific, very provable claim and has been completely consistent and confident about how the mechanics of it are going to work. I think it's genuine. I don't see any mafia buddy of 3DS' going along with him pulling a stunt like this, and this role doesn't make a lot of sense for mafia. I think he's probably Town (on our site I would probably speculate indie but that's apparently rare here). Post #417 from the Shadow definitely appears to be Wiisp. If nothing else, Wiisp and only Wiisp consistently spelled my name is "Lasor" throughout the entirety of Oasis. As I noted earlier, as 3DS has claimed a PR in a low power setup, I think there is really no reason to consider his lynch today.
Xivii: As I noted in #496 and #533, I don't think it's a good idea to judge Xivii strictly by his D1 play as he likes to be tricky and stir the pot, but I feel on a tone/meta level he's actually fairly consistent about how he goes about this. I am pretty confident that this is Town Xivii.
pythag: Haven't seen much interesting out of him for most of the game, but he's perked up a bit with the recent developments, and I feel his tone is consistent with the earlier game we played. I gave him a Town lean last night, but in retrospect I think that was probably an overstatement of my confidence in my read though, so I think I'll probably drop him to nullTown.
Deadbananas: Pretty much the only thing that stands out to me about Deadbananas are his reads in #337. I have some problems with these similar to those expressed by Handorin (#360). The strong townread of Sabrar seems somewhat unjustified IMHO and the scumreads are only the very lowest of low-hanging fruit. Scum lean.
Spak: I like his opening and his case on me seems to be townie motivated. He's actually the only person to really question the fact that I've been posting a lot of reads without attempting to provide any motivation for them at the time, and while I don't think his scum read on me is warranted, I can see how he could get there if he thinks I'm just making stuff up randomly. Solid Town.
bessie: Haven't had any huge pings from her one way or the other. My recollection is that she is normally tonally much more townie than she is in this game, but that's about all I have to go on at this point. Leaving her at null for the moment.
Sabrar: Pretty much the same boat as bessie. Haven't seen a lot from Sabrar that really stands out to me one way or the other. I disagree with BoomFrog that his push on 3DS regarding the claim is necessarily coming from Town!Sabrar. Sabrar has strong feelings about setup design and I think those feelings would filter through regardless of his alignment. Leaving him at null for now.
Town:
LaserGuy
Spak
Trisscar
3DS
BoomFrog
Xivii
Logic
Handorin
Mala
pythag
Jackrito
Null:
bessie
Sabrar
Scum:
Z25
Deadbananas
Ranmaru
Ordering is as close as I can get, but some of the nullish reads are more or less interchangeable.
Mala: Had a Town Lean on them in #55. This was mostly based on Mala's early tone and reactions feeling very relaxed and natural. Since then Mala's content has been basically forgettable. I don't recall any particularly strong stances or pushes out of them. Dropping down to nullTown.
Handorin: Had a scum feeling from them in #93. I felt that their push on Jackrito (#88 was throwing shade since Jackrito was discussing the issue at hand and it felt to me that it had been established at this point that 3DS was in fact talking about a role, so this felt misplaced. Subsequent discussions have led me to believe is probably a meta-mismatch issue and Handorin did really think that Jackrito was wasting time here. Handorin's more recent posting, notably his push on Deadbananas, have led me to reconsider him and I now have him as a weak Town lean.
Logic: Their approach to the game and posts have felt very townie to me. I had them as Town lean in #207 and that still feels about right to me.
BoomFrog: I didn't care for his aggressive tone in #207, but subsequent posting, especially his frustration resulting from his interaction with Triss (discussed in #332) has led me to believe that he is probably Town.
Jackrito: Has been coasting a fair bit at this stage I feel. I don't really have any strong pings from Jack, but nothing stands out as objectionable. Based on his self-reflection in Oasis, it's more likely that this is his Town meta, but based on that same game, it's also obvious Jack's scum and Town metas aren't so terribly different, so I'm putting him at nullTown.
Z25: Had an early ping from his opening that I mentioned in #63. I didn't pursue this much at the time as their explanation for it seemed plausible, but I was keeping an eye on Z25. As discussed in #291, their content seemed quite weak to me in that they were mostly active, but also pretty much content to just focus on dissecting the plausibility of 3DS' claim rather than actually advancing the game state. Z25's reads seem very non-commital and vague. Still happy with the scum lean here.
Ranmaru: I had some suspicions about Ranmaru starting in #227 in how he went about reading Triss, namely that he said he had Triss as null (bad Town) or "likely" playing dumb (mafia). To me this would imply that Ran actually thought Triss was more likely mafia than not, which should not lead to a null read as it did in this post. This is similar to the tell that Jackrito made in early D1 of Oasis where he voted me despite saying that he didn't see a scum motivation for my actions. Ran also values consistency and clarity in his play, so this seems uncharacteristically sloppy for him.
There's also this weird exchange ending with #370. I assert that the setup is (relatively) low powered, based on mod comments, and Ran believes that this is the mod deliberately throwing us off. Now, as I mention, this setup is explicitly non-******* and I really feel that the mod posting should be taken as gospel here. That aside, what's more interesting is that given the information publicly available, I think it's a bit stretch for Ran to leap to the conclusion that power level of the setup is not exactly what is state. As Town, Ran would have, at best, two claims and his own role PM to work with. One of those claims is VT, the other is for a power that Ran seems to believe, as per his read on 3DS in #411, is probably a fabrication. Even if Ran were a very strong PR himself (unlikely given Ran is say, I don't really feel there's enough information out there for him to concretely say that the setup is not going to be as the mod described. This leads me to believe that Ran has TMI about the setup, and is possibly making this claim based on not only his own power level, but also that of his scummmates, which would give him a much more complete picture than Town would have.
Regarding Ran vs. Xivii, I'm not really going to attempt to work through all of the arguments and meta there. Suffice to say I think Ran is scum independently of this exchange, and I think Xivii is more likely Town independent of it.
Trisscar: As I started in #237 and #291, I get a newbie Town vibe from Triss... The early claim, the weird reactions, it all pretty much fits the archetype. Now I will note that Triss obviously is not strictly newbie Town, as they obviously have played similar games to mafia and have a lot of theoretical knowledge of how different roles interact (#377). That said, my understanding is that Triss is used to playing open or semi-open, power-heavy setups where the meta heavily focuses on early claims and role interactions, and in that sense, I think a lot of the newbie Town meta still applies to him since the focus is not really so much on reads or analysis per se. I also think that a player from this meta landscape is unlikely to fake claim VT early in the game as mafia, as they would want to keep their options open. I think the claim is most likely genuine.
3DS: Ultimately, I think any questions about 3DS are going to have to be resolved one way or another by 3DS' claim. He's made a very specific, very provable claim and has been completely consistent and confident about how the mechanics of it are going to work. I think it's genuine. I don't see any mafia buddy of 3DS' going along with him pulling a stunt like this, and this role doesn't make a lot of sense for mafia. I think he's probably Town (on our site I would probably speculate indie but that's apparently rare here). Post #417 from the Shadow definitely appears to be Wiisp. If nothing else, Wiisp and only Wiisp consistently spelled my name is "Lasor" throughout the entirety of Oasis. As I noted earlier, as 3DS has claimed a PR in a low power setup, I think there is really no reason to consider his lynch today.
Xivii: As I noted in #496 and #533, I don't think it's a good idea to judge Xivii strictly by his D1 play as he likes to be tricky and stir the pot, but I feel on a tone/meta level he's actually fairly consistent about how he goes about this. I am pretty confident that this is Town Xivii.
pythag: Haven't seen much interesting out of him for most of the game, but he's perked up a bit with the recent developments, and I feel his tone is consistent with the earlier game we played. I gave him a Town lean last night, but in retrospect I think that was probably an overstatement of my confidence in my read though, so I think I'll probably drop him to nullTown.
Deadbananas: Pretty much the only thing that stands out to me about Deadbananas are his reads in #337. I have some problems with these similar to those expressed by Handorin (#360). The strong townread of Sabrar seems somewhat unjustified IMHO and the scumreads are only the very lowest of low-hanging fruit. Scum lean.
Spak: I like his opening and his case on me seems to be townie motivated. He's actually the only person to really question the fact that I've been posting a lot of reads without attempting to provide any motivation for them at the time, and while I don't think his scum read on me is warranted, I can see how he could get there if he thinks I'm just making stuff up randomly. Solid Town.
bessie: Haven't had any huge pings from her one way or the other. My recollection is that she is normally tonally much more townie than she is in this game, but that's about all I have to go on at this point. Leaving her at null for the moment.
Sabrar: Pretty much the same boat as bessie. Haven't seen a lot from Sabrar that really stands out to me one way or the other. I disagree with BoomFrog that his push on 3DS regarding the claim is necessarily coming from Town!Sabrar. Sabrar has strong feelings about setup design and I think those feelings would filter through regardless of his alignment. Leaving him at null for now.
Town:
LaserGuy
Spak
Trisscar
3DS
BoomFrog
Xivii
Logic
Handorin
Mala
pythag
Jackrito
Null:
bessie
Sabrar
Scum:
Z25
Deadbananas
Ranmaru
Ordering is as close as I can get, but some of the nullish reads are more or less interchangeable.
Z25
Pokemon Illusionist
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My current places to look at for a vote are triss, laser, boom, or handorin.
Right now though I’m leaning towards handorin. Posts like 434 and 564 show a desire of not really listening to other people’s points and responded in a kinda of cold way. I feel like a townie would have had more to say and want to make themselves look better. It reads as potential scum knowing they will skate by day one most likely so they have no desire to contribute to bigger discussions right now.
Vote: Handorin
Right now though I’m leaning towards handorin. Posts like 434 and 564 show a desire of not really listening to other people’s points and responded in a kinda of cold way. I feel like a townie would have had more to say and want to make themselves look better. It reads as potential scum knowing they will skate by day one most likely so they have no desire to contribute to bigger discussions right now.
Vote: Handorin
LaserGuy
Smash Ace
EBWOP: noticed this incomplete thought in my Ran read:
the parenthetical should say (unlikely given Ran is saying he's willing to be lynched for his read on Xivii)
LaserGuy
Smash Ace
The problem I have is in that read when you moved your vote, that your analysis doesn't agree with your conclusion. Your analysis says you think he's likely to be scum. Your conclusion is that he's null. It is that inconsistency that I bothers me. Not necessarily because I demand consistency from everyone, but because I know that it is something you value and therefore not something you are likely to mess up.LaserGuy Let us run back that triss point. In your mind, why do I say that *I kept my vote on him because he never town telled* if I actually believed he was mafia.
ranmaru
Smash Legend
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You demand consistency, and that is fine. Yet even I make mistakes. Very minor ones, this time a wording mistake. (Last game, it was a 'slip' that maven was actually pushing) Yet my actions around it make sense. I bandwagon triss for pressure, I ask him why he claimed, which doesn't show I suspect him as you suggest. I place him as null because I am unsure if he is bad town or mafia playing dumb.
Xivii
caterpillar feet
So much for willing to be lynched for the cause.
Xivii
caterpillar feet
Your behavior doesn't show it. Have you ever reacted with annoyance for being pushed before?
Your thoughts on my Ninja take?
Yet a large amount of players have nulls.
You also are assuming that Ninja would be capable of replicating his play.
I think that's hard to do, and for such a new player I don't see that being so possible
ranmaru
Smash Legend
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Pythagoras, notice how this game people have less pings? That means scum are either: in a good position, or playing back seat to the point others can't determine their alignment well enough. Do you agree or disagree?
Can you get at me with a reads list.
Can you get at me with a reads list.
LaserGuy
Smash Ace
I've read it. I just don't have the depth of knowledge about all of these various games and metas to be able to evaluate it at more than a superficial level.
I think it's premature to try to solve for an entire team in a game this size without any flips at all. Especially with a large number of lower impact players in the game, it's pretty easy to interchange. I could probably come up with 30+ teams that are plausible in the given gamestate that don't include you, and there's still lots of play left in the day that could upend things entirely. I would have a closer look at Xivii, if that's what you're asking.
*grumbles* Every time somebody asks me what do to after they flip Town my gut is always to give townie credit even though I really shouldn't. I'm not set on lynching you today, and even if I was, there's fifteen other people who get a say.
That's fair enough. There is just no reason to lynch him today specifically. I am kind of expecting that the Shadow will end up being produced tomorrow given how things are going
ranmaru
Smash Legend
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It does line up with what I said. There a a majority of players back seating, they can't all be scum and I have to figure out which ones have scum motivation for doing so, and Xiivi shows this the most, and ninja.
BoomFrog
Smash Lord
- Joined
- Mar 23, 2020
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- 1,493
No I wasn't in Stellaris although I did hear about it a bit I never read it either. I've never been in a game with Sabra and Bessie as scum together. Actually the only scum bessie game I played Sabrar caught her D1. And the only Scum!Sabrar game I can recall was WoT3 when sabrar was mafia-recruit who never got recruited.
Yeah, I still think so. Scum Ran attacking Xivii who is a strong player and hard to lynch doesn't make sense. Scum Xivii being forced to be reactive and OMGUS could fit, but I think scum Xivii would actually be more resonable here since he'd know Ran is right. Xivii's hard push back feels like town self-righteousness.
BoomFrog
Smash Lord
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I'm not trying to police how you play the game. I'm just saying you have a very self-aware style, and you said you like to ride the scummy wave to avoid the lynch and the NK. I can understand that and I'm trying to work with you here. I'm just asking for a preview of the Handorin plan. What should I expect from you in later Days?
Handorin
Smash Hero
- Joined
- Dec 2, 2005
- Messages
- 6,013
Basically the same stuff. Theoretically, my reads get better as more info is obtained, just like everyone else.
Sabrar
Smash Ace
- Joined
- Mar 13, 2020
- Messages
- 931
Your memory is terrible. I did get recruited N1 in WoT3 and we were scum together in both Crossover and Unlikely Superheroes
Deadbananas
Smash Journeyman
- Joined
- Apr 12, 2020
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- 341
Do ran and Xivii have this sort of interaction often? Usually I'd say two people going after each other that hard its more likely a TvS situation but your guys reaction make it seem like a somewhat common occurrence.
Z25
Pokemon Illusionist
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Do you really think I look worse than handorin?