Official Smash for Switch 2 - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[Ivander]

I dunno, Morgan as the token Fate rep feels a bit odd. :V

It is pretty odd. Especially with how Morgan is an Echo of Robin, with the only differences being no bars for her weapon and spells and that her Final Smash is her Noble Phantasm.

 

[Watuna4343]

I kind of wonder just how low priority Bowser Jr. was to begin with, because putting the effort into modeling 7 extra characters for his alts, each with different facial expressions than Jr., does not scream "super low priority".

Idk if that alludes to Bowser Jr's priority BUT a while ago I asked (and searched) about the Gematsu Leak (I also searched in general about Smash 4's development though I didn't find much besides the project plan) and the opinion was that it was a very very early plan of Smash 4. And if that is to be believed that the leak was indeed a very first idea of the newcomers, and that leak included all the newcomers currently in base 4 except for the echoes, Bowser Jr, Rosalina (though I will put an asterisk to Rosalina because by the time the full leaked came out Rosalina was one of the few fighters that was already revealed so there was no point in 'leaking' her if she was already revealed) and the Duck Hunt. So, Bowser Jr, who again was not named in the leak/first draft, was a newcomer that was added in later compared to almost everyone else and I will also note that he wasn't in - what we saw of - the Project Plan either, and add to the fact that Sakurai made the comment about him almost getting cut - I think those combine do lead to the idea that Bowser Jr was most definitely a pretty lower priority inclusion.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

I kind of wonder just how low priority Bowser Jr. was to begin with, because putting the effort into modeling 7 extra characters for his alts, each with different facial expressions than Jr., does not scream "super low priority".

Working on him likely started at a point far enough that Sakurai had doubts he could pull all of it off.

Doesn't necessarily have to be the very last character they started working on and moreso that he might have taken a while due to all the models and there was a chance they couldn't finish before the game's release.

I will also note that he wasn't in - what we saw of - the Project Plan either

That is not how Sakurai operates.

Whatever comes first on Sakurai's project plan tend to stick without much change, with very few exceptions;

• Dr. Mario, Young Link, Ganondorf, Falco, Pichu and Roy are all known to have been come up with later to pad out Melee's roster.
• You can also make a case for Ness in Melee as well, since the original idea was to replace him with Lucas from Earthbound 64.
• Chrom was initially planned for Smash 4 but he ended up being replaced by Robin because he felt more interesting moveset-wise.
• Dr. Mario (again), Lucina and Dark Pit were originally alts before being promoted to having their own fighter slots as clone fighters.
• Technically speaking, Sonic was added later during Brawl's development, but that was a case of him being in the initial project plan, Sega saying no and then changing their mind later on. So in a way, things still went according to plan, but differently.

Any time Sakurai went off-track with his project plans, it was either for clones or to replace a character with someone else from the same series, and Bowser Jr. fits neither of these categories.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Behold, our first two Smash 6 newcomers:

I mean...I'd be down.

 

[dream1ng]

Idk if that alludes to Bowser Jr's priority BUT a while ago I asked (and searched) about the Gematsu Leak (I also searched in general about Smash 4's development though I didn't find much besides the project plan) and the opinion was that it was a very very early plan of Smash 4. And if that is to be believed that the leak was indeed a very first idea of the newcomers, and that leak included all the newcomers currently in base 4 except for the echoes, Bowser Jr, Rosalina (though I will put an asterisk to Rosalina because by the time the full leaked came out Rosalina was one of the few fighters that was already revealed so there was no point in 'leaking' her if she was already revealed) and the Duck Hunt. So, Bowser Jr, who again was not named in the leak/first draft, was a newcomer that was added in later compared to almost everyone else and I will also note that he wasn't in - what we saw of - the Project Plan either, and add to the fact that Sakurai made the comment about him almost getting cut - I think those combine do lead to the idea that Bowser Jr was most definitely a pretty lower priority inclusion.

Gematsu's info was never alleged to be the full roster, characters being absent is not indicative of their priority. The info disseminated in increments many months apart, none was a complete picture.

Also if anything the project proposal would have more original characters than what makes base over fewer. You can always cut characters during development for whatever reason, but adding new original ones halfway through that weren't accounted for is going to throw off the schedule and the allocated budget, itself dictated in part by the proposal. Look at how Sonic delayed Brawl.

Gematsu is incomplete information, not evidence of the entire plan from whatever stage wherein it was leaked.

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

Working on him likely started at a point far enough that Sakurai had doubts he could pull all of it off.

Doesn't necessarily have to be the very last character they started working on and moreso that he might have taken a while due to all the models and there was a chance they couldn't finish before the game's release.


That is not how Sakurai operates.

Whatever comes first on Sakurai's project plan tend to stick without much change, with very few exceptions;

• Dr. Mario, Young Link, Ganondorf, Falco, Pichu and Roy are all known to have been come up with later to pad out Melee's roster.
• You can also make a case for Ness in Melee as well, since the original idea was to replace him with Lucas from Earthbound 64.
• Chrom was initially planned for Smash 4 but he ended up being replaced by Robin because he felt more interesting moveset-wise.
• Dr. Mario (again), Lucina and Dark Pit were originally alts before being promoted to having their own fighter slots as clone fighters.
• Technically speaking, Sonic was added later during Brawl's development, but that was a case of him being in the initial project plan, Sega saying no and then changing their mind later on.

Any time Sakurai went off-track with his project plans, it was either for clones or to replace a character with someone else from the same series, and Bowser Jr. fits neither of these categories.

Even then, Robin must have been an earlier decision over Chrom since we see Robin's page in the proposal along with Rosalina's and Duck Hunt's.

 

[fogbadge]

Even then, Robin must have been an earlier decision over Chrom since we see Robin's page in the proposal along with Rosalina's and Duck Hunt's.

wait we can see the proposal?

 

[SubspaceJigglypuff]

wait we can see the proposal?

Partially. Here's a link

 

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

Also we know for a fact the Gematsu leak doesn't indicate priority or we would've had a Rhythm Heaven character in Smash 4, since the Chorus Kids were in that lol

 

[NintenRob]

Even then, Robin must have been an earlier decision over Chrom since we see Robin's page in the proposal along with Rosalina's and Duck Hunt's.

This really blew my mind when I saw it, especially when Rosalina and Duck Hunt were also there. Two characters who weren't leaked by Gematsu.


Gematsu is such an anomaly as far as leaks go. It got so much right, including Wii Fit Trainer. At first it felt like the second round of Gematsu characters leak was just fake and it was only the first characters that were accurate. But then we saw that bloody Rhythm Heaven enemy and data suggesting Rhythm Heaven was planned to get a character. But the project plan suggests Robin was planned from very early on.

It's hard to wrap your mind around.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

This really blew my mind when I saw it, especially when Rosalina and Duck Hunt were also there. Two characters who weren't leaked by Gematsu.


Gematsu is such an anomaly as far as leaks go. It got so much right, including Wii Fit Trainer. At first it felt like the second round of Gematsu characters leak was just fake and it was only the first characters that were accurate. But then we saw that bloody Rhythm Heaven enemy and data suggesting Rhythm Heaven was planned to get a character. But the project plan suggests Robin was planned from very early on.

It's hard to wrap your mind around.

It's also possible that Gematsu was just a string of incredibly good guesses... right?

I kinda forgot what the irrefutable evidence was but it does remind me of that one user on a French website (looking back, it was GameFAQs) managing to guess the first four FP1 fighters which made people think the fifth one would be KOS-MOS because "no way those were just guesses, right?"

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

It's also possible that Gematsu was just a string of incredibly good guesses... right?

I kinda forgot what the irrefutable evidence was but it does remind me of that one user on a French website (looking back, it was GameFAQs) managing to guess the first four FP1 fighters which made people think the fifth one would be KOS-MOS because "no way those were just guesses, right?"

No, it was a French site. (And post-Joker).

And the amount Gematsu got right with what didn't happen still having points towards it (Sakurai directly stating Chrom was considered and datamines showing Rhythm Heaven was intended to have its own series icon which only happens to series with characters or stages at bare minimum), makes the idea of it being a "series of lucky guesses" to be implausible.

There's a non-zero possibility just like there's a non-zero possibility of me getting $1 million on my doorstep tomorrow hand delivered by Steve Harvey, but it's so pathetically low of a possibility that it may as well be dismissed.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

No, it was a French site. (And post-Joker).

OH MY GOD I ****ING KNEW IT WAS JEUXVIDEOS

I just sucked at finding it.

Still an insane set of guesses.

there's a non-zero possibility of me getting $1 million on my doorstep tomorrow hand delivered by Steve Harvey

I'd watch that show, tbh

 

[dream1ng]

Also we know for a fact the Gematsu leak doesn't indicate priority or we would've had a Rhythm Heaven character in Smash 4, since the Chorus Kids were in that lol

Tbf, only if they were cut because they were out-prioritized, not if they were cut because the moveset wasn't proving fun/feasible. Which is a running theory.

I agree with the overall point though.

 

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

Tbf, only if they were cut because they were out-prioritized, not if they were cut because the moveset wasn't proving fun/feasible. Which is a running theory.

I agree with the overall point though.

Speaking of Rhythm Heaven, if it's true that the next Smash will start development after Air Riders comes out--which obviously we don't know if it'll be after that or it maybe already has if the game is pretty much ready to go, like how Smash 4 started after Kid Icarus Uprising, but the Awakening characters being "just in time" for it makes me think it started pretty close to KIU's release--I honestly hope that bodes well considering Rhythm Heaven Groove. Like it won't be out in that sweetspot FE Awakening hit obviously, but it at the very least HAS been announced already, which could tell Sakurai it might be a good time to go back to that idea?

I dunno, it just makes me kinda hopeful for at least like, a stage maybe? Something at least lol

 

[DarthEnderX]

That ain't a guess, chief. That was a randomizer with more than a million characters that weren't Wii Fit Trainer that only had to randomly pick one of them and yet somehow it still broke outside the boundary of all the characters it was given and said that Wii Fit Trainer would be revealed for Smash 4.

It's a VERY good guess.

 

[Hadokeyblade]

If you guessed someone like Wii fit trainer and it actually happened i'm going to assume you are either an insider or you have the gift of prophecy because there is no ****ing way you accurately guessed something like that.

 

[dream1ng]

It's a VERY good guess.

What's even the point of denying? What do you gain? So some leaks are real... so what?

 

[Thegameandwatch]

is not how Sakurai operates.

Whatever comes first on Sakurai's project plan tend to stick without much change, with very few exceptions;

• Dr. Mario, Young Link, Ganondorf, Falco, Pichu and Roy are all known to have been come up with later to pad out Melee's roster.
• You can also make a case for Ness in Melee as well, since the original idea was to replace him with Lucas from Earthbound 64.
• Chrom was initially planned for Smash 4 but he ended up being replaced by Robin because he felt more interesting moveset-wise.
• Dr. Mario (again), Lucina and Dark Pit were originally alts before being promoted to having their own fighter slots as clone fighters.
• Technically speaking, Sonic was added later during Brawl's development, but that was a case of him being in the initial project plan, Sega saying no and then changing their mind later on. So in a way, things still went according to plan, but differently.

Any time Sakurai went off-track with his project plans, it was either for clones or to replace a character with someone else from the same series, and Bowser Jr. fits neither of these categories

Another one is Jigglypuff, Toon Link and Wolf being added to Brawl later in development which is why they were post game in Subspace.

Wolf was added because he was a popular request and easier to add compared to Krystal. Toon Link because they wanted to add a character from the Wind Waker and that branch of the timeline.

 

[DarthEnderX]

Behold, our first two Smash 6 newcomers:

That seems alright to me.

Partially. Here's a link

And here's another link.

If you guessed someone like Wii fit trainer and it actually happened i'm going to assume you are either an insider or you have the gift of prophecy because there is no ****ing way you accurately guessed something like that.

Is it really though? Wii Fit was one of the biggest games on the Wii.

Sure, not a lot of people predicted it, because it's arguably not even a game. But then neither was ROB.

What's even the point of denying? What do you gain?

Rent-free accommodations inside your head.

 

[Hadokeyblade]

Is it really though? Wii Fit was one of the biggest games on the Wii.

Sure, not a lot of people predicted it, because it's arguably not even a game. But then neither was ROB.

A stage and assist trophy feel like the more "logical" route, i don't think ANYONE ever expected a full on character.

 

[Thegameandwatch]

Is it really though? Wii Fit was one of the biggest games on the Wii.

Sure, not a lot of people predicted it, because it's arguably not even a game. But then neither was ROB.

I think most people thought that Wii Fit would take the same route of Nintendogs or Brain Age where it’s represented in Smash but not as a character despite having high popularity.

R.O.B was in Mario Kart DS so it wasn’t completely unexpected.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Another one is Jigglypuff, Toon Link and Wolf being added to Brawl later in development which is why they were post game in Subspace.

Wolf was added because he was a popular request and easier to add compared to Krystal. Toon Link because they wanted to add a character from the Wind Waker and that branch of the timeline.

Let's also clarify they were on the original development plan too. In fact, everyone was in Brawl. Which has to include the Forbidden 7, otherwise they wouldn't have been in the game data.

As for Toon Link, do note he reused Young Link's assets. Whereas besides Sheik, everybody else had TP-based updates. It's possible the plan was a bit moreso to update them all the GCN styles. Sheik was built akin to the TP design(note that Hyrule Historia's JP and US texts are not too clear, but we don't actually know if she was concept art for TP itself, or created specifically for Brawl as a concept art in the style of TP). You can somewhat see some GCN updates in another way; Mario gaining F.L.U.D.D.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Wii Fit Trainer as a character makes complete sense but she was also revealed long before the Miis, who would have been the characters most likely to represent the Wii series of games in most people's eyes at the time.

Had we seen the Miis and their unimaginative movesets before Wii Fit Trainer, there's a good chance we could have speculated about her due to being like, the only character from the Wii series who could have some sort of moveset potential and isn't a Mii.

 

[Thegameandwatch]

As for Toon Link, do note he reused Young Link's assets. Whereas besides Sheik, everybody else had TP-based updates. It's possible the plan was a bit moreso to update them all the GCN styles. Sheik was built akin to the TP design(note that Hyrule Historia's JP and US texts are not too clear, but we don't actually know if she was concept art for TP itself, or created specifically for Brawl as a concept art). You can somewhat see some GCN updates in another way; Mario gaining F.L.U.D.D.

Although if it’s about replacing Young Link then it wasn’t planned from the start since Sakurai mentioned that he wasn’t planned for Brawl.

The source was from a magazine interview after Brawl released. It wasn’t translated for some reason unlike the stuff about Wolf.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Although if it’s about replacing Young Link then it wasn’t planned from the start since Sakurai mentioned that he wasn’t planned for Brawl.

The source was from a magazine interview after Brawl released. It wasn’t translated for some reason unlike the stuff about Wolf.

Then how do you know Toon Link wasn't planned?

 

[dream1ng]

Rent-free accommodations inside your head.

You're 46

 

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

Then how do you know Toon Link wasn't planned?

I mean taking a picture of it with Google Translate says "It was decided from the beginning that we would not have the child Link from the previous game, so when we were thinking about adding a character from the Zelda series, we thought that Toon Link would be one of the paths that branched off, so we thought it was worth including."

Granted, Google Translate, but the translation was surprisingly legible and coherent lol

I know the question was about Toon Link's position, but based on previous comments in the chain here I feel like something got a little lost, because this is saying Young Link was definitely axed from the beginning, but also assumedly that Toon Link was planned from the beginning as well.

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

Although if it’s about replacing Young Link then it wasn’t planned from the start since Sakurai mentioned that he wasn’t planned for Brawl.

The source was from a magazine interview after Brawl released. It wasn’t translated for some reason unlike the stuff about Wolf.

Problem with that is Sakurai stated that Sonic was the sole addition to the project plan in the very conference I posted when speaking of when the roster was finalized.

Which goes against the idea that the likes of Toon Link and Wolf not being planned.
However it fully lines up with the idea that there were characters that were lower in priority and could be cut for time if needed. Which were and Toon Zelda/"Toon Sheik", as well as Dixie Kong once she was scrapped from the tag team with Diddy and "pra_mai" which through as many context clues we can get was Plusle & Minun.

Of which only the first three were in luck.

 

[DarthEnderX]

You're 46

You're never too old to suffer from a plummeting housing market!

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Although if it’s about replacing Young Link then it wasn’t planned from the start since Sakurai mentioned that he wasn’t planned for Brawl.

The source was from a magazine interview after Brawl released. It wasn’t translated for some reason unlike the stuff about Wolf.

Actually, it's incorrect; all 46 characters were on the original project plan. When they were actually added(or in some cases, not finished).

The first interesting tidbit he dropped during his talk was that the final character roster was essentially completed when the design document was finalized on July 7, 2005. That was, the character list was done 2½ years before the game was completed. Sakurai said the reasoning behind this was that he knew making additions later during development would be very difficult.

In other words, he already had it done. Note that this is from the Nintendo World Report as a source.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Guys... I don't think Min Min or ARMS in general is making it back.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Guys... I don't think Min Min or ARMS in general is making it back.

They actually bothered to make a Switch 2 patch for ARMS so I don't think it's going to be completely eradicated. They could've easily just... done nothing and quietly sweeped the game under the rug like they did with the graphic novel but they didn't which shows Nintendo still has a modicum of care for the IP.

Even if Min Min ends up being too polarizing of a design to return in the next game, there's no conceivable way they're also axing every other bit of content we got in Ultimate. The stage can still come back, the songs can still come back, the Spring Man assist can still come back and maybe even the Spirits too if those come back.

 

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

Guys... I don't think Min Min or ARMS in general is making it back.

If it helps, I'd frankly be surprised if Min Min doesn't come back considering we've never lost an entire playable first-party series before outside of the Ice Climbers, and that was for technical constraints.

Depends on the situation for next game considering possibility of cuts, but I do think being first-party is a boon for her, tbh.

EDIT: I don't think we'll really get much content added for ARMS outside of like maybe an item or a new stage to actually make the Ramen Bowl her home stage, but I don't see any reason why Min Min shouldn't at least come back with everything she brought as a DLC character.

 

[Ivander]

Wii Fit Trainer as a character makes complete sense but she was also revealed long before the Miis, who would have been the characters most likely to represent the Wii series of games in most people's eyes at the time.

Had we seen the Miis and their unimaginative movesets before Wii Fit Trainer, there's a good chance we could have speculated about her due to being like, the only character from the Wii series who could have some sort of moveset potential and isn't a Mii.

I guarantee you with 100% certainty, that had not Sakurai been in charge, we would've gotten a stage at the least, but never the trainer. You cannot tell me with a straight face that any other major director, like Harada, Ono or Niitsuma, would've looked at Wii Fit and go, "Hmm, besides a stage, that nameless Trainer that does yoga poses and exercises and looks like your average regular normal everyday human on a workout makes complete sense for a All-Star fighting game."

And no, I'm not bringing up that whole surprise character debacle all-over again. That's not relevant to this argument. But I can guarantee you no one else would've considered the Trainer and that if Wii Fit got a character somehow, it'd be the Wii Balance Board, which is not just a character in Wii Fit, but the peripheral, moveset AND size arguments cannot be used when R.O.B. is in the game.

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

It was a matter of Sega not playing ball at first as I remember something about them initially rejecting Sonic for Brawl and only coming back at the last minute.

And now I finally found the source.
Page 210 of The History of Sonic the Hedgehog.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

We had one prediction on GameFAQs(a user) who thought Wii Fit Trainer would be in the next Smash Bros. game. So it's not entirely impossible that one in a trillion chance of somebody thinking of it...

But let's be real too; it's something that is a very rare thought, so no, there's no way WFT would've gotten in without Sakurai's vision. Nor would they have had enough fan demand for a later title. They're not exactly a memorable character or highly requested(Miis, sure. Other avatars can be beyond that. Fire Emblem has loads of popular characters, avatar or otherwise. The protagonists of Pokemon are designed to be partially avatars for the player too. Link somewhat was like that, though eventually they more hard defined him with a more strict personality too. And I don't mean the spin-off/non-canon material).