Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[Smasher 101]

Rayman's chances: 5%
Want: 50% - Indifferent.

Dixie Kong's chances: 70% - A new DK character is likely, but I'm not really sure who it would be between her and K. Rool, so if K. Rool comes up for renomination I'll probably give him the same score.
Want: 70% - I would prefer K. Rool, but I like Dixie too and would be fine with her inclusion.

Ashley prediction: 11.04%

Andy x5

 

[Spears In Smash Bros.]

Raymundo: 10%
His lack of tangible limbs could potentially hurt his ability to block strikes from other fighters. (More seriously, he's a 3rd-party character.)

Want: 33%
I've played demos of Rayman games, they were pretty fun little platformers, but I'm not sure what his moveset would be.

Dixie Kong: 23.5%

Want: 20%
I feel that she should be part of a tag team with Diddy, thus giving the two of them a combined moveset which, in my opinion, could potentially be more fun to use than Diddy's current one.

Ashley prediction: 1.25%

Nominate:
Neku & Shiki x3
Quote x2

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Dixie Kong want=2%

Nomination=5xNeku and Shiki

 

[BluePikmin11]

Rayman Chance: 23% It can happen, but it's an unlikely choice for Sakurai.
Rayman Want: 78% Honestly a cool guy!
Ashley Prediction: 23.7% A second Warioware character is unlikely.
Nomination:
Tom Nook x5.

 

[jaytalks]

Rayman: 1%
He's a third party character from a western company in a game with a definite Japanese focus. And Rayman isn't at the level of Sonic, Mega-Man, and Snake. Few video game characters are, and that's what it would take for a third party character.

Rayman 0%
He's gotten better in a design since he went full 2D. However, I have never played his games or had much interest in the character

Dixie Kong: 65%
I feel she definitely has better chance than King K. Rool. I don't think too much about popularity, and one community's specific love for a character. So other than King K. Rool's supposed higher popularity, I don't see what he has over Dixie. As I've said, popularity gets you to the door, doesn't get you in. But she was closer to Brawl than he was and would be much easier to program. Not only is she a smaller character, but she could also use Diddy Kong's programming as a reference (but not be a clone or semi-clone). She also has a renewed role in the series (from what we've seen), so if Sakurai got sneak peak into DK:TF, he would have probably seen Dixie in it. Out of any series, DK has the best chance of getting a new rep without cuts. DKC was also revived on the Wii, giving a good reason for the series renewed focus.

Want: 100%
Not the biggest DK fan but I do think they deserve another rep. And she is a great character as well. I hope she makes it in over King K. Rool.

Ashley Prediction: 17.34% She will be bolstered as the most likely Wario series rep, but that's really Mona.
Nominations:
Ephraim x 5

 

[PK_Wonder]

Rayman - 10%
Dixie Kong - 80%

predict Ashley 5%

Wonder Red x5

 

[PK_Wonder]

Double post. Smashboards, you troll.

 

[Xenigma]

After thinking about it, looks like the streak goes to four. Blah.

Rayman - 0%
So my first thoughts on this were "Hey, Rayman Legends was a great Wii U release, and Raving Rabbids was popularized on the Wii. Surely Rayman makes sense!". Then I remembered that Legends was delayed to make it a multiplatform release, and Rabbids has long since moved to other platforms (including an Xbox exclusive), and the first Rayman game wasn't even released on a Nintendo console until versions for the GBC and GBA came out much later. He may have some relevance to Nintendo, but not all that much. Considering we already have Mega Man, have the heavily rumored Pac-Man, and further have Sonic and Snake to consider as returners, is there really any room for yet another third party, especially one that lacks a strong Nintendo connection? I personally don't see it.
Want - 10% - Would be kinda cool, but yet another character who I think would just be taking space from a better candidate.

Dixie Kong - 55%
As I recall I gave her a 45% last time, and ultimately decided that I rated both her and K. Rool a bit too low. I still believe she's the stronger candidate of the two, and I want to make it clear I fully expect at least one of the two to make it into SSB4, so I'm bumping her up to 55%, and giving K. Rool a 50% whenever his inevitable rerate rolls around. Very close chances, and a very minor chance both appear, though I'm personally expecting Dixie as I believe she holds a slight edge given recent developments with the franchise plus her being in the forbidden seven. Look forward to seeing who prevails!
Want - 75% - I'd be thrilled to see more Donkey Kong representation, and both her and K. Rool have clear appeal.

Ashley - 6.5%
I'd considering predicting higher, but given the predictions so far, this round doesn't look like it'll be pretty.

Nominations
Black Shadow x5

 

[AfricanSanta]

Rayman chance- 3%- Sonic, Snake, Pac-Man, and Prof. Layton all have better chances as third parties.
Rayman want- 90%- I love Rayman, and I'd like to see Ubisoft get a rep since their possibly my favorite third party company.

Dixie Kong chance- 40%- She has good chances if Sakurai, for whatever reason, doesn't think K. Rool doesn't deserve a spot. It helps that shes in Tropical Freeze and K. Rool isn't, but I don't see both of them making it.
Dixie Kong want- 15%- Not a huge fan of her, and I'd rather have K. Rool.

Nominations:
Dark Samus x3
Mallo x2

 

[Sid-cada]

Rayman

Chance - 0.01% - A third party who cannot be compared to the likes of Snake, Sonic, Megaman, etc. I'm sorry, but Ubisoft is a small potatoes company in comparison to even many of the second-party companies already in Smash. I don't see him having any sort of significant chance.

Want - 65% - Played Legends a few days ago. Man, was that fun. While I'm not certain what type of move set could be made, it certainly would be fun.


Dixe Kong

Chance - 55% - Could get in due to Tropical Freeze giving her a boost, but unless there is a good move set available, she's going to be overlooked.

Want - 43% - Nothing against her, but I'd be much happier with K. Rool, and I'm not sure what she could do to separate herself enough from Diddy.


Ashley - 4% - How many people think we're actually getting another Wario character?

Nominations
Anna X5

 

[Fastblade5035]

Nominations
Anna X5

Oh, it's ON man.

 

[Toxicroaker]

Rayman: 0.1% No... I do not want to repeat myself
Want: 0%!!! NO FUPING THIRD PARTIES!!! FUUUUUUUUUU...

Dixie: 30%
Want: 40%

Ashley: 10%?

x5 Toad

 

[Groose]

Only Sonic? What about Falcon, Groose? "SHOW ME YOUR MOVES!"

Not my best moment. As I wrote that, I thought to myself: "I'm forgetting someone. I know I am."

Then I thought of Falco and Falcon. And Bowser in the Mario and Luigi series. Oops. Still, we have far fewer showboaters than goody-two-shoes.

 

[Sid-cada]

Oh, it's ON man.

Oh... ummm.... well, I knew that you wanted Ephraim before Anna due to that post you recently made, but I had no idea that you would respond like this...

Hey, Groose! What are the rules if two different characters are tied for votes?

If we tie, will that satisfy you? (And if not, I'm going to vote as much as I can for Anna.)

 

[Groose]

The only time we had a draw was my very first day running the game (it was between Mii and Roy). Habanero and I had no idea what to do. We just kinda... flipped a coin.

 

[Good Guy Giygas]

Rayman

Likelihood: 2% - He's third party, and he's not exactly an extremely iconic video game character either, so I'd say his chance are pretty slim.
Want: 5% - Not a huge fan of this idea, he just doesn't seem Smash-worthy to me..

Dixie Kong

Chance: 45% - I don't know, seems like she has some popularity going for her.
Want: 0% - It may seem harsh, but I just don't see the appeal of another small monkey character. Diddy's one the most underwhelming of Brawl's newcomers in my opinion, so I really don't want someone almost exactly like him in SSB4. I guess I'd be okay with the idea of combining Diddy and Dixie as one character like Ice Climbers, but if they're going to add another DK character, it should be K. Rool. I'm not even a supporter of him, but I think he's more deserving than Dixie. I would seriously be disappointed if she got on the roster; to me it'd be a waste. Sorry, rant done..


Ashley: 6% - Unfortunately, it's pretty unlikely.

Nominations:
Mach Rider x5

 

[Fastblade5035]

The only time we had a draw was my very first day running the game (it was between Mii and Roy). Habanero and I had no idea what to do. We just kinda... flipped a coin.

Since it's Fire Emblem reps, we should totally base it on the RNG.
Totally.

 

[Groose]

Diddy's one the most underwhelming of Brawl's newcomers

Now you've done it! You've sentenced this thread to death! Soon HE will be here. HE sees, he sees everything! HE will tear this thread apart! He who loves Impa and hates Ridley!

I actually like Diddy Kong the user, but I just could't resist. Plus, I see no way he overlooks this comment.

Since it's Fire Emblem reps, we should totally base it on the RNG.
Totally.

Heh, I'll put it through the RNG program on my calculator if it comes to it.

By the way... that signature... what was Habanero's reaction when he saw it? I can only imagine...

 

[Fastblade5035]

Heh, I'll put it through the RNG program on my calculator if it comes to it.

By the way... that signature... what was Habanero's reaction when he saw it? I can only imagine...

Awesome.
Hey, Sin Cada. Just for this thing, can we agree to let Ephraim to catch up tomorrow, then have everything go back to normal on Sunday? I really wanna fight the RNG cause I don't pick fight's I can't win

Oh, and yeah, Hab wasn't happy at all ^.^
I even got a Fire Emblem picture reaction!

 

[Sid-cada]

Since it's Fire Emblem reps, we should totally base it on the RNG.
Totally.

Heh, I'll put it through the RNG program on my calculator if it comes to it.

So, I guess it's settled then?

Alright, I'll avoid voting for Anna tomorrow, and let the RNG decide which of us will go next.

The fact that Anna is the Random Number Goddess means that I'm certain I will win. Regardless, best of luck to ya, Fastblade!

 

[SchAlternate]

Everybody Loves Rayman
Likelihood: 1% - Seriously doubt it. Not only is he a third party with little to no connection with Ninty (besides Legends), but he's got to much competition.
Want: 75% - Rayman is a pretty cool dude.

Dixieplined Kong
Likelihood: 48% - A DK newcomer is almost guaranteed, and it's either her or K.Rool. Though, we could get both, if Dixie and Diddy shared the same slot, playing in an Ice Climbers with Zelda/Sheik hybrid of some sort.
Want: 64% - It'd be really nice to see her in, but I've got my vote on the king.

Ashes to Ashley
Prediction: 13.5% - This round will be interesting...

Nominations
It's gotta SUK to have been APONted to that job x5

 

[Gunla]

Rayman

Chances: 15%: There's Rayman Legends. And then there's the fact that it isn't a Wii-U exclusive like it was supposed to be. Hurt his chances a ton.

Want: 35%: I'm kinda iffy with third party characters, but I like Rayman, partly because one of my games from my childhood was the first Rayman. He'd be fun to play as, at the least.

Dixie Kong

Chances: 43%: The only other real competition for a new DK rep is King K. Rool. it's a tossup.

Want: 14%: I prefer the King.

Ashley

Prediction: 24%: And here's the issue. There's a really balanced field for Wario reps, unless Waluigi is counted in... and I could see it being Ashley. But you always gotta count in the naysayers, eh?

Nominating...
Ganon X5

 

[FalKoopa]

Ray Man:
Likelihood: 3%
He is pretty unlikely. We have strong contenders like Sonic, Snake and Pac-Man, and even Prof. Layton is more likely with how faithful he has been to Nintendo.

Want: 5%
Eh.... Nope.

Dixie Kong:
Likelihood: 65%
A good chance, imo. A new DK rep is very likely, and it's a toss up between her and K. Rool. I don't know who is more likely though.

Want: 55%
Her inclusion would be well deserved.

Ashley!
Predicting 12%

I'll now start a one-man mission to get Fawful to the top of the nominations list!
FAWFUL X 5!

 

[XenothiumX]

Rayman
Likelihood: 0.1%
Does Sakurai even know this character exists?

Want: 25%
A character that fits well with smash fighting style, but I'm not too big on the inclusion of third parties.

Dixie Kong
Likelihood: 15%
I guess we'll see who gets to say I told you so in the end...

Want: 5%
The position of the little annoying monkey has already been taken.

Ashley
Prediction: 3%

Nominations:
Majora's Mask Link x5

 

[Yams]

Rayman
Likelihood: 6.5% Among 3rd party characters, I'd honestly find him to be one of the top 5 most likely along with the confirmed MegaMan, Sonic, Snake, and Pac-Man. He's the icon of Ubisoft, and if they get a rep then he's in. But I'm sure Sonic and Snake will return, and that's already three 3rd parties which is beyond the capacity. I don't see him beating out the aforementioned four, but I don't think he's ignorable.

Want: 50% I think he's okay, but I wouldn't care.

Dixie Kong
Likelihood: 37.77% I'd still put her behind King K Rool because of his high demand and unique potential. But, I think she would make a lot of sense, being scrapped in Brawl and being featured in the new Donkey Kong game. I'm just hoping Sakurai will prioritize King K. Rool.

Want: 0% She seems bland seeing as we already have a small monkey, and I feel she'd be some what cloney. K Rool has much more potential of being unique.

Ashley:
2%

Nominations
Sukapon x5

 

[Aqua Rock X]

Rayman

Chance: 0.5% - Sakurai said "I'm not going to have just any character participate from other companies" and Rayman is about as "any character" as you can get. I'm sorry but his chances are almost non-existent.

Want: 0% - Uhh, no. ESPECIALLY "NO" if he's going to bring in those, ugh, rabbids.

Dixie Kong

Chance: 65% - She's a part of Tropical Freeze and if I'm correct, Sakurai already has some work done on her. She seems like a good candidate. Of course, K. Rool has the "rule" over the Japanese vote for a DK newcomer so there is that to consider. But he's an obstacle only if we get one DK newcomer.

Want: 80% - Seems like an interesting character who can only add to the awesome.

Ashley Prediction: 7.5% - The lead choice for a Wario Ware newcomer. The problem is, Wario Ware isn't a lead choice for a series to have a newcomer.

Nominations:
Sylveon x5

 

[BlitznBurst]

Rayman

Chances: 5%. Legends being made multiplatform (even against the actual game developers' wishes) has kind of screwed him over. If it had been Wii U exclusive, then he could be a plausible candidate for a third-party. But now i don't see it happening at all.

F**k you, Ubisoft.

Want: 100%. Come on, he's Rayman. I grew up with this sh*t, and I support it all the way. I don't care if i'm being nostalgia-biased here. Rayman for Smash 4.

...

... F**k you, Ubisoft.

Dixie Kong

Chances: 30%. She could be considered part of the "main trio" (even though she really shouldn't imo) and Tropical Freeze certainly keeps her fresh in the mind of most people. She was also originally going to be in Brawl, which means that Sakurai could very well place her above K. Rool. However, I want to note two things.

One: Brawl's roster, with the exception of Sonic, was already set in stone long before the game started getting lots of coverage. So back then, K. Rool didn't have the massive following he does now, because all that hype was focused on Diddy. Since he's now universally one of the most heavily requested characters, this gives him a distinct advantage over Dixie Kong, who despite being popular doesn't near rival K. Rool's fanbase.

Two: Tropical Freeze, at this point, is completely irrelevant. It faces the same problem as K. Rool did in Brawl, in that the roster was finalized ages ago. Dixie's inclusion would completely overlook Tropical Freeze, as it wouldn't have been announced when they were deciding the characters. She would have been just as irrelevant as K. Rool was. The most Tropical Freeze could do is make the team see her as a higher priority than she was before its reveal, assuming she ever made it in in the first place. Tropical Freeze doesn't mean anything.

There's also the issue of her not really having all that much potential as a character, at least compared to K. Rool. Her only unique trait is spinning her hair, tbh. So I see K. Rool as the obvious victor here. Unless they decide to do what they originally planned for Brawl and make her and Diddy a tag team, she's probably not getting in over K. Rool.

Want: 0%. K. Rool plz. Accept no substitutions.

Ashley prediction: 15%? I'm not entirely sure how most people view the Wario Ware franchise as a whole or its likelihood of getting a second rep, but from what I can tell Ashley is generally seen as the most likely rep. That could very well be wrong though.

Also I'm now shifting support from Ganon to Wonder Red. Mostly because I'd rather vote for a character who has a proper chance at getting in for a change. So Wonder Red X5

 

[Sid-cada]

Anna x 5
(Let's do it, Sid-cada!)

... Dang it.

In case you haven't noticed, me and Fastblade have reached an agreement to let Ephraim and Anna be tied for votes, then have one of the two be randomly picked. I intend to honor the decision.

While it would be nice if you were willing to change your votes, I'm willing to go for Ephraim if you aren't.

 

[FalKoopa]

... Dang it.

In case you haven't noticed, me and Fastblade have reached an agreement to let Ephraim and Anna be tied for votes, then have one of the two be randomly picked. I intend to honor the decision.

While it would be nice if you were willing to change your votes, I'm willing to go for Ephraim if you aren't.

Oh. I'll change my vote them. No prob.

 

[DukeofShorts]

RayMan chance: 6%
I don't even think his games are at all fun.

RayMan want: 0%
Not a good 'nuff third party.

Dixie Kong chance: 32.1%
There's already a monkey exactly like her.

Dixie Kong want: 0.01%
I hate the character. I would rather play as Tiny Kong.

Anthony Higgs x5

 

[samsparta21]

Rayman 10%
Dixie 15%
Ashley 15%

Bowser Jr x5

 

[YoshiandToad]

Rayman 10%
Dixie 15%
Ashley 15%

Bowser Jr x5

Are those your chance scores for Rayman and Dixie or you want? I believe you're meant to vote on both.

 

[Ephecus]

Rayman

Chance: 1 %
Rayman is neither directly associated with Nintendo nor has he ever had any major influence in their history. Chances are, he wasn't even considered before Rayman Legends went multiconsole.

Want: 3 %
Rayman lacks starpower and interesting features (Aside from his limblessness). I mean even the villains of his own games were more popular than him prior to Origins. I'd rather have a more deserving 3rd party like Sonic or Bomberman.

Dixie Kong

Chance: 55 %
She probably will make it in, however it is pretty uncertain. For one K.K.Rool is more popular and also this time around there won't be as many newcomer as in Brawl which means that the DK-Franchise probably won't get more than 3 reps. It's even possible that DK won't get a new rep at all despite its surge in popularity.

Want: 50 %
The DK Country franchise never really interested me too much until recently so I know next to nothing about her. She appears to be very similar to the other Kongs apart from her hair-gimmick. That's why I am neutral on her.

Ashley Prediction: 8 %

Nominations: Daisy x 5

 

[FalKoopa]

Are those your chance scores for Rayman and Dixie or you want? I believe you're meant to vote on both.

As far as I know, want scores aren't compulsory. So if one score is given, I think it is taken as the chance score. Not 100% sure though.

 

[SchAlternate]

By the way, musicness incoming!

Rayman (all from Rayman Origins)
Sea of Serendipity Depths
Moskito Stage
Moskito Stage 2
Steampunk Suspense
The Mecha Factory
Chasing a Dream

Dixie Kong (all from Donkey Kong Country 2)
Mining Melancholy
Forest Interlude
Disco Train
Stickerbrush Symphony (of course)

 

[Deleted member]

By the way, musicness incoming!

Rayman (all from Rayman Origins)
Sea of Serendipity Depths
Moskito Stage
Moskito Stage 2
Steampunk Suspense
The Mecha Factory
Chasing a Dream
(of course)

That reminds me.
Tricky Treasure Song

 

[Starcutter]

rayman: 7%
want 50%

dixie 49%
want 80% (-20 because k rool)

ashley 24.8%

noms
lucario x3
phoenix wright x2

 

[djgeiger0620]

Rayman

Chance - 15%

Want - 60% - He would be completely AWESOME in the SSB universe. They only reason he's at 60% is because I'd prefer other characters to be in there over him. If he got in, I wouldn't be disappointed at ALL, just if he gets in and other characters that should get in do not.


Dixie

So I'm pretty sure that even though there's two different categories, one for want, the other for what a character's chances are, people are still voting Dixie's chances low because of how they feel about her.

Chances - 90% - Her chances, whether people like them or not, are much higher than K. Rool. I know many of you disagree with me, but here's why I think this (in no particular order).

- She's in Tropical Freeze

Tropical Freeze, at this point, is completely irrelevant. It faces the same problem as K. Rool did in Brawl, in that the roster was finalized ages ago. Dixie's inclusion would completely overlook Tropical Freeze, as it wouldn't have been announced when they were deciding the characters. She would have been just as irrelevant as K. Rool was. The most Tropical Freeze could do is make the team see her as a higher priority than she was before its reveal, assuming she ever made it in in the first place. Tropical Freeze doesn't mean anything.

Ummm... So the SSB team plans ahead, but the Donkey Kong Country team doesn't? Not trying to pick a fight here, but that doesn't make sense. It's like saying the HD release of WW didn't affect Toon Link's chances of returning.

- Some people also say she has no moveset potential, it would be too much like Diddy. I have to say, this is hard for me too. However, the Brawl team apparently thought she did. She was apparently supposed to tag team with Diddy, and you wouldn't tag team with someone to get... exactly the same thing. No, just like Zelda and Sheik are unique apart from each other, as well as Charizard, Ivysaur and Squirtle, so would Diddy and Dixie be unique.

- She also is very popular and well liked. Not saying K. Rool ISN'T, just saying plenty of people like Dixie as well. By the way, this may have little significance. Nintendo tends to listen to its fans somewhat, but not a lot (as long as they're pretty confidant you're going to buy the product anyway). The fact that we got Megaman makes me think they listened to us then, but that's "throwing the dog a bone" so to speak. Now I think they'll trudge forward doing whatever the heck they want to do (unfortunately).


Want - 90% - Really, I'm very torn. I'm expecting only one rep from the DK series, as many others are, and I really want both her and K. Rool. He's at about 90% for my own personal want as well. I just think his chances are significantly lower.

Ashley - 9.2%


Noms to Lloyd Irving x5

 

[moneyfrenzy]

By the way, musicness incoming!

Rayman (all from Rayman Origins)
Sea of Serendipity Depths
Moskito Stage
Moskito Stage 2
Steampunk Suspense
The Mecha Factory
Chasing a Dream

Dixie Kong (all from Donkey Kong Country 2)
Mining Melancholy
Forest Interlude
Disco Train
Stickerbrush Symphony (of course)

no no no... please dont remind me how creepy the sea of serendipity depths song is...

 

[moneyfrenzy]

Rayman chance 3%: legends becoming a mulitplatform crushed his chanced.

Want 100%: Origins and legends are the best new platformers ive played, much better than new super mario bros and dkc returns

Dixie:

Chance 75%: pretty sure her and k. rool will make it in.

Want 20%: just what could she do differently?/

Ashley 7%
Nominations:
K. rool x5