Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[TumblrFamous]

Yay! Ike and Toon Zelda/Tetra! By the way, it is Tetra, not Sheik. Just a little nitpick

Ike Prediction: 75%
A lot of people mainly think there's a pattern that Marth will return and a new lord will be replacing the previous. That is STUPID. You cannot make a prediction from something that happened in one game! Anyway, I think he might be staying. He's not going to be the least priority, he's one of the most popular lords of FE. I just don't want any cuts, but, depending on how many cuts we'll get, we'll see.

Ike Want: 50%
To be honest, I'm indifferent towards Fire Emblem as a whole, I never got into it like some people. Personally, he was fun to play as in Brawl, but he wasn't all that great in the air. Being heavy, he was a fast-faller, which I hate in characters. I need characters with an Aerial Game, which is why I like characters like Peach and Lucario. Still, I don't want cuts.

Toon Zelda/Tetra Prediction: 29%
There's some backlash why people don't think she's likely. It will most likely be a clone, "Toon Link won't be in Smash!", and the fact that Zelda shouldn't have another rep are some of the arguments people make. Not EVERYONE likes her.

As for my nominations, it's time to nominate some veterans!
Ganondorf x5

 

[Groose]

Yay! Ike and Toon Zelda/Tetra! By the way, it is Tetra, not Sheik. Just a little nitpick

ACK! As I was typing it, I thought to myself: yeah, Toon Zelda/Tetra. That's a character I could get behind; at least they're not inventing a Sheik here...

And somehow my thought process morphed with my typing process.

 

[moneyfrenzy]

Ike chance 70%: Sakurai did say there would be cuts, and Ike could get replaced by another fire emblem rep, but he does have a unique moveset.

Want: 50%: im indifferent, but i hope they dont flood the game with fire emblem reps

Toon zelda/tetra: 10%

Nominations: bomberman x5

 

[Groose]

OMG OMG I just realized we have a version of Zelda up next. Well, looks like I'm going to have fun with the music section...

 

[Sabrewulf238]

Ike prediction - 45%

I think out of all the brawl veterans, Ike will be in the lowest priority bracket. He'll probably be near the top of that bracket due to not being a clone....but he might be damaged by the arrival of another new Fire Emblem character such as Chrom or Robin. It could end up being a case of "Flavour of the month" with Fire Emblem reps...similarly to the Pokemon series. I'm not convinced that Fire Emblem deserves three reps when series like Metroid and Kid Icarus still only have one each.

Ike want - 40%

He's a unique fighter, so I would be fairly happy if he stayed....although not at the expense of certain characters.

Toon Zelda/Tetra prediction - 3%

Since I don't believe Toon Link will be in smash bros 4 it's not surprising that I have even less faith in Toon Zelda/Tetra being included. Toon link will have to make it in first before we can even think about this....and Toon Link getting a place on the roster is looking dodgy as of right now.

Nominations:
Chibi Robo X3
Robin X2 (Awakening)

 

[Silverjay323]

Don't worry; extreme outliers are discarded in Rate Their Chances. His want percentage will stand... but the chance percentage... not so much.

Aww well that's disappointing.

Anyways...

Ike chance: 56%

Want: 60%

ToonZelda/Tetra: 26.3

Nominations:
Porky X2
Ninten X3

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Ike: 78%
He's got a good shot and no real reason to have him replaced.

Want: 100%
No cuts.

Toon Zelda/ Tetra Prediction: 12%
They have a decent chance, though they really aren't popular.

Nominations:
Pokemon Trainer x3
Lucas
R.O.B.

 

[Knight Dude]

Ike's Chance's: 80% - Unlike Roy Ike does not share a moveset with Marth, so I feel that alone does give him some priority, since he has his own fighting style. He's also one of the more popular characters in Brawl. From what I've seen anyways, alot people use him online. The only things that might hold him back is whether or not someone else "more relevant" takes his moveset. But seeing as how Olimar is still present as the Pikmin rep instead of one of the newer captains, relevance might not matter to the makers of the game.

Want: 80% - Ike's a fun character to fight with. And he's one of the better heavy hitters in Brawl. Hopefully the same can be said in Smash 4.

Toon Zelda/Tetra Prediction thing: I dunno 15% I guess.

I nominate Ganondorf 5 times.

 

[Wyoming]

Ike's chances: 95%. He's popular and he's a unique character. I don't see why he'd be cut albeit I do admit there's this very little, just tiny doubt that he might not come back but I'd be surprised if he was indeed removed.

Want: 100%. No reason to cut him.

Toon Zelda/Tetra: Zelda does need a new representatitve, and I suppose they are one of the more likely additions, so I'll say they have a 50% chance of making it. However, I am hoping for a more...creative character to make it into Smash that isn't a cel-shaded version of Zelda (and essentially Sheik)

Nominations: Jack from HM x5 again.

 

[TheMasonOrder]

IKE: 75%

Want: 100% - He's IKE!!!!

Toon Zelda/Tetra: 20%

Nominations:
Eirika 5x

 

[MargnetMan23]

90% He's not getting replaced by Roy, and he's probably not getting replaced by an awakening rep unless there's going to be only 2 FE slots either
Want: 50% I don't care XD

Toon Zelda: 22.3%

Nomz: YAY I WON XD
x5 Omastar
x5 Mr. Game and Watch

 

[YoshiandToad]

Ike: 78%
I can't see Ike going anywhere, especially since Roy wasn't even intended to get cut originally. He has quite a strong fanbase, and I guess if you want recentness he was in that Awakening DLC alongside Roy?

Want: 80% We like Ike!

Toon Zelda/Tetra prediction: Part of that Forbidden Seven, but I doubt that'll affect many people's judgement so I'm gonna go...15%. Tetra's cool, but a lot of people are in the mind that LoZ doesn't need a new rep, and Zelda requests are far and few between.

Once again; all my votes for Dillon please:
Dillon X 5

 

[jaytalks]

Ike's like(lihood): 75%. I don't think his chances are really affected by Roy's popularity, it's an Awakening rep that threatens him. Ike is still a well in demand veteran, and even beats Roy in the shortie poll as an in demand veteran if i'm not mistaken.
Want: 99%. I want him more than Chrom but less than Lucina.

Toon Zelda Prediction: 27.27%
Nominations:
Waluigi x5
(c'mon waluigi supporters. you all are so close to the top. let's close.)

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Ike:

Chance 92%
Actually higher than the awakening lords, for a few distinct reasons:
1. Smash tends to focus on the previous generation and given Radiant Dawn he is the FE character for that.
2. He has two, TWO, games as the main lord (well leader), this is more than can be said for Roy or Chrom/Lucina.
3. He's a smash veteran already!
I'm not saying an awakening Lord won't make it, or even Micaiah (though I think Chrom/Lucina are more likely), but I think the rosters big enough for 3 (maybe 4 at a push) FE characters now, and I don't think Ike's getting cut.

Want: 100%
The radiance games aren't my favourites, but Ike is a part of both smash and FE now, and he should be in there, and going by brawl, he plays well and I'd like to see him back in a faster, more balanced game.


Zelda/Tetra: 32.18%
I don't think she's that likely, but forbidden 7 makes me think there will be some who will rate her highly.


Slime *5 (He will have his day in the Slimelight!)

 

[Good Guy Giygas]

Ike
Likelihood: 80% Not too sure about his chances because I honestly know nothing about FE, but I don't think we should count him out either.
Want: 100% Definitely one of the Brawl newcomers I want to see return. He and Lucas are my two Brawl mains, so I'd really hate to see him go.

Toon Zelda/Tetra: 14% Don't really see this happening...

Nominations:
Masked Man x5

 

[Opossum]

Ike Time! We like Ike!

Want: 100%

We like Ike.

Likelihood: 92%
Taking the high-road here. I'm confident Ike will come back. He's extremely important to the Fire Emblem series as a whole, and is popular among the Smash Bros. fans.

Predicting a 20% for Toon Zelda/Tetra

Nominating Pokemon Trainer x4
and Starfy x1

Sakurai did say there would be cuts,

Really, now. When was this? He's never confirmed that cuts would happen.

 

[CalumG]

Really, now. When was this? He's never confirmed that cuts would happen.

http://www.nowgamer.com/news/197055...t_have_time_to_bring_all_characters_back.html

This article. Although, I guess, it's a case of interpretation - he could just mean that he's going to stick with the Brawl cast and expand it (at the despair of Mewtwo and Roy fans), but it's not a stretch to assume this means there'll be at least 2 or 3 character cuts.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Ike:

Likelihood: 65% - Fire Emblem seems to be one of the franchises where people have the expection that a character spot will always be open to the newest lord and that spot will be occupied by a different lord each game. It's kind of an unfair assumption since Roy was cut due to lack of time and was put in low priority because of his clone status, so there's not much to build on from that. However, Ike simply isn't as important as many other characters, and especially not if Chrom or a new lord decides to dump in, I can see him being low on the priority list despite not being a clone. In Sakurai's eyes he might be an easy cut because of this. However, still giving him an above average percantage chance because he is a unique veteran, so he wouldn't be as hard to integrate and make as a newcomer would be.

Want: 100% - One of my mains in Brawl, I'd be pretty sad if he left.

Toon Zelda/Sheik Prediction: 32%

Nominations:
3x Pokémon Trainer
2x Lucas

 

[Arcanir]

Chances-75% I never subscribed to the "replace with newest lord" trend because Roy was intended to be in Brawl anyway. Also, he's a popular lord with a unique moveset. The only thing that may happen is that he gets hit by time constraint like Roy and that is a possibility to consider.

Want-75% I fight for my friends!

 

[Deleted member]

To be honest, I kinda feel bad for poor Sandbag. But anyways, onto Ike.
Ike
Chances: 88%
Personally, I believe that there is room for 3 Fire Emblem characters. With Marth being a given, that leaves room for 2 other characters in the series. Ike is still pretty popular among fans and was in Awakening DLC. However, he does have some competition from other Fire Emblem characters, such as Chrom, which does potentially hurt his chances. However, I believe that he will continue to fight for his friends.
Want: 65%
I'm not a big Ike fan, but I don't want to see him get cut. I'll be happy as long as they nerf his attack power...
Toon Zelda/Sheik Prediction: 44.3%
Ah. One of the characters that are a part of Brawl's Forbidden 7.
Nominations:
Ganondorf 5x

 

[jaytalks]

Ike:

Chance 92%
Actually higher than the awakening lords, for a few distinct reasons:
1. Smash tends to focus on the previous generation and given Radiant Dawn he is the FE character for that.
2. He has two, TWO, games as the main lord (well leader), this is more than can be said for Roy or Chrom/Lucina.
3. He's a smash veteran already!
I'm not saying an awakening Lord won't make it, or even Micaiah (though I think Chrom/Lucina are more likely), but I think the rosters big enough for 3 (maybe 4 at a push) FE characters now, and I don't think Ike's getting cut.

Want: 100%
The radiance games aren't my favourites, but Ike is a part of both smash and FE now, and he should be in there, and going by brawl, he plays well and I'd like to see him back in a faster, more balanced game.


Zelda/Tetra: 32.18%
I don't think she's that likely, but forbidden 7 makes me think there will be some who will rate her highly.


Slime *5 (He will have his day in the Slimelight!)

I think the roster is big enough for three FE characters as well. I don't think Ike is getting cut as well. I was just pointing at that Ike is not threatened by Roy. He's beaten him once before (unfortunately for Roy fans).

 

[Shotguner159]

Ike.
Chances:
100%. He's the Main Character of two Fire Emblem games and one of the most popular Lords in the west, and popular in Brawl too, I don't see him being scrapped.
Want:
0%. I don't like Ike.

 

[FalKoopa]

WE LIKE IKE!

Whoops, I mean

Anyways,
Likelihood: 80%
He has a very high chance of staying. He has unique moveset, is very popular, a recurring lord (which is very rare in Fire Emblem). None of the relevancy BS will affect him. Though he might be a little lower priority than last time.

Want: 100%
I simply love his moveset and his game. 'nuff said.

Toon Zelda/Tetra prediction: 24%

Nominations: Waluigi x 5

 

[Sebz]

Ike~ 70%
FE has grown in popularity, and thus probably deserving of at least a third rep. This means that Ike could just fit snugly in between Marth and whomever ends up getting the last spot. And Ike by himself has a pretty solid fan base.

Want~ 60%
PoR was the first FE game I beat, but I would probably prefer more original FE characters getting in like Hector or Robin.

Toon Zelda/Tetra~ 44%
Previously considered for inclusion, and the Toon Zelda games are very prominent right now.

Noms:
Genesect x5

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Ike chance=40%

Ike want=25%

As long as whoever replaces him has a similar playstyle, why do people care? I haven't seen much support for the actual character of Ike, just people who like playing as him and don't want cuts. I don't see why they can't just put different characters as different costumes with some of these FE guys.

Prediction=16%

Nomination=5xVaati

 

[Swamp Sensei]

As long as whoever replaces him has a similar playstyle, why do people care? I haven't seen much support for the actual character of Ike, just people who like playing as him and don't want cuts. I don't see why they can't just put different characters as different costumes with some of these FE guys.

Ike is the most popular western lord in both FE and Smash.

There is a huge amount of support for the character. We really do like Ike. Not just his playstyle.

What you talking about Willis?

 

[FalKoopa]

As long as whoever replaces him has a similar playstyle, why do people care? I haven't seen much support for the actual character of Ike, just people who like playing as him and don't want cuts. I don't see why they can't just put different characters as different costumes with some of these FE guys.

Oh dear, you really do not know how much people hate replacement scrappies, do you?

That's the very reason Impa gets so much hate here, as Diddy constantly pushes her as a replacement for Sheik.

 

[Gam3rALO]

Ike!
Chance: 98%
I believe the of amount reps for FE will be increased by 1. The roster should be Marth, Ike, and Chrom/Roy.

Want: 94%
I like Ike!!

Prediction for toon Zelda/Tetra: 27.88%

Nominations:
Sylveon x5

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Oh dear, you really do not know how much people hate replacement scrappies, do you?

That's the very reason Impa gets so much hate here, as Diddy constantly pushes her as a replacement for Sheik.

I don't care. I think the "no cuts" sentiment is stupid. People who never would have requested character X defend him or her, when they would be doing the exact same if anyone else had taken that character's place in his or her respective game.

 

[FalKoopa]

I don't care. I think the "no cuts" sentiment is stupid. People who never would have requested character X defend him or her, when they would be doing the exact same if anyone else had taken that character's place in his or her respective game.

Is it bad to defend a character you like?

People did not know about Fire Emblem prior to Melee. I guess it was wrong for them to defend Marth for Brawl.

 

[Seraphim.]

Ike

Chance: 90% I see him back in full force, I don't think Chrom will take his spot just for being the most recent lord.

Want: 78%

Toon Zelda/Tetra: 27%

Lucas x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Ike

Chance - 95% - Yeah, unless IS demands that he be removed, I don't think Ike will be cut. Considering that he is the face of "western Fire Emblem," it would be rather dumb if they do. Considering that he is still being promoted a bit, we should not expect him to be cut.

Want - 100% - Still toting no cuts.


Toon Zelda/Tetra Prediction - 17% - A clone in a well-represented series? Yeah, people won't be kind to her.

Nominations
ROB x4
Pokémon Trainer X1

 

[---]

Ike - 90%
Want - 100%
+ Popular
+ Seems to be liked by IS (they recommended him to Sakurai, commented on his popularity in Iwata Asks: FE11)
+ Got a major Easter Eggs in FE13 through his descendant Priam, as well as Smash references in the DLC chapters,
+ Has stared in multiple FE games

Unless there's only two FE characters, which isn't a good bet based on hacked Brawl data, the chances for Ike returning are pretty high.

 

[ToothiestAura]

Ike
Chances: 85%
I think Sakurai said he had not cut anyone yet or he doesn't plan to or something along those lines. I only see him being cut if they run out of time for development. I doubt they would drop him for another FE character - FE has become popular enough to merit at least 3 reps. This popularization is largely due to PoR and RD (Two games where Ike was a main character) so I feel it isn't likely that he'll be cut for someone new from FE.

Want: 100%
I like Ike. I like him in the FE games and I like him in Brawl.

 

[Toxicroaker]

Ike: 89%
want: 50%

Toon Zelda/Tetra: 32%

x5 Zoroark

 

[Primid]

Ike Chances: 85% There are only a few things standing in his way for inclusion, but I'm pretty positive that he'll return.
Ike Want: 100% One of my mains in Brawl. Seeing one of my favorite characters leave would be sad.

Nominations:
Masked Man x5

 

[Xenigma]

Guess it's time to finally pick a new nominee to back. With the last character in my sig being a pipe dream, I think I'll start going for veterans again...

Ike - 75%
This one is kinda difficult because Fire Emblem is generally difficult to predict. Ike's only been in Smash once, and while Ike was at the peak of his importance when Brawl was around, since then he's only appeared as DLC for Awakening and as the presumed ancestor of Priam. On the other hand, Ike is still popular, he beat out fan favorite Roy to get into Brawl in the first place, he offers a unique moveset, and the fact that Priam stars in a free SpotPass chapter for Awakening, when every other SpotPass chapter is for a major plot character for Awakening, says a lot about how much faith IS still has in Ike. There's a sizable chance he still misses the cut due to competition, in which case Chrom would probably inherit his moveset. If you ask me, though, he has a plenty good chance of making returning alongside the very safe Marth.
Want - 75% - We like Ike!

Toon Zelda/Tetra Prediction - 12%
I'm expecting a mess. Plenty of users question Toon Link, nevermind Toon Zelda, and clones aren't generally liked around here. Any help the Forbidden Seven brings is negated by the nomination being Tetra instead of Toon Sheik, even if its the sensible pairing. At least I know there are fans here of the pairing to help the rating somewhat.

Nominations
R.O.B. x5

 

[Starcutter]

ike: 87%

want 90%

toon zelda 34%

nominations
kamek x5

 

[Forde]

Ike 75%

I can see him returning due to so many people just really enjoying his character. Being as we've had 2 FE Swordsmen for the last 2 SSB games, the real question is if SSB4 will deviate from that, and have more FE chars that previously. I would love to see Marth, Chrom, Roy and Ike be in, but it really is a wait and see right now.

Want: 80% I really enjoyed playing Ike, even if he wasn't competitive, so I wouldn't mind him coming back at all. Definitely if they increased his overall speed I would play him a hell of a lot more.

Toon Zelda/Tetra prediction - 50% I'll give it a 50%, seeing as it does have more potential to be less of a clone than Toon Link/Young Link. Simply due to Tetra's possible moveset, I could see there being a much larger difference between Tetra and Sheik, while Zelda/Toon Zelda would have more common moves than Tetra/Sheik.

 

[ZecaOMestre]

Ike

Likelihood: 90% - Ike is a veteran, and Sakurai said he would try not to cut anyone. Even if there were cuts, there are characters which are probably less priority, such as Lucario, Wolf. Ike is not a clone as Roy was, so we can't say he's getting cut just because Roy was.

Want: 100% - My Brawl main, he's my absolute favorite character to play as

Toon Zelda: 29%

Nominations
Zoroark x2
Dillon x3