Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[Pacack]

Priority for me:

Unlockable Newcomers: 99.5%
I'm not even joking. I will justify myself with this:

It's already in Mega Man's trailer. That practically confirms that we're having unlockable characters.

Want: 100%
Definitely want to unlock them all without knowing who's out there, since I haven't gotten to do that before.

Shantae:

Chance: .5%
Non-legendary third party. Sorry.

Want: 2%
I'd rather Layton for an unlikely third party character.

Predictions:

Shadow: .9%
I'm expecting at least one person to be unrealistic about things.

Paper Mario: 17%
He still has fans, but Rosalina exists.

Nominations: Snake x5 (Could someone help me here?)

 

[Toxicroaker]

Shantae: 0.1%
Want: 1%

Unlockable Newcomers: 90%
Want: 100%

Shadow: 1%
Paper Mario: 1.21%

x5 Dixie Kong... I hate this character, but I must set things right.

 

[Smasher 101]

@ Sid-cada wins for Alexandra and @ FalKoopa wins for Sandbag. Five extra noms for both of you.

Shantae's chances and Want: 0% - Third party that really isn't legendary enough for a slot. I have no attachment to the character and feel like there are better third party choices out there.

Unlockable Newcomers: 99% - I don't see why we wouldn't have any.
Want: 100% - I like having unlockables.

Shadow prediction: 0.87% - Characters from third parties that already have characters always do poorly.
Paper Mario prediction: 16.79% - Rosalina will cause this to drop.

Zoroark x5

 

[Deleted member]

How, I mean WHY does Sandbag have more than double what Master Hand's chances are?!
Shantae and Unlockable Newcomers have been added to the Directory.

Shantae
Chance: 0%
3rd party characters have to be special cases and they have to be in leagues of their own. Shantae is neither of these things. She is an indie character, a popular one in fact. However, I doubt that we can call Shantae or any indie in the same league as Sonic and Mega Man. If we were to get an indie character, I'll give the edge to Quote (which reminds me, I have to download Cave Story!).
Want: 0%
Ehh…

Unlockable Newcomers
Chance: 99%
With Mega Man in Smash, I'm pretty sure that he will be an unlockable character. Even with revealed characters, I am confident that some of those characters will be unlockable.
I don't think that Sakurai will share every single character before release and I bet that he has some secrets that he isn't sharing with us.
Want: 30%
Honestly, I want the whole roster available from the start. While there is a joy in unlocking characters, I rather know the whole roster before buying SSB4.

Shadow the Hedgehog Prediction: .23%
His want… will be extremely low. I don't think that he will reach Adam levels, however.
Paper Mario Prediction: 7.92%
Rosalina killed his chances.

Nominations: Captain Rainbow 5x

@ Toxicroaker , here are some songs for Shadow:

Spoiler

I Am… All of Me
Never Turn Back (you'll never want to turn back and play his game again)
All Hail Shadow
Sonic vs. Shadow (For True Story)
Radical Highway
Sky Troops
Lost Impact
Cosmic Fall

If Dr. Eggman gets rated, I'll help you with his list too!

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Unlockable Newcomers:

Chance: 100%
Want: 100%
New Challenger Approaching!
Also Megaman...


Shantae:

Chance: 0%
Not Legendary

Want: 10%
I like Shantae, but she doesn't deserve the spot. That said Dance Through the Danger would make a great trailer song.



Shadow: 1.3%
Most of us are old enough to hate him here, and reasonable enough to think a second Sonic rep is unlikely.

Paper Mario: 0.6%
Rosalina...


Slime*5
(That was slurp-ainly a controversial day yesterday, slop-fully today is goo-ing to be better!)

 

[Gunla]

Shantae: CUE THE PATTY WAGON! ALL ABOARD THE PATTY TRAIN!
Pros
+Wayforward has been on Nintendo platforms mostly.
+Shantae is a primarily Nintendo series.
Cons
-Newer Shantae games shifting to multiplatform.
-Patty Wagon. BTW, Mighty Games are Nintendo exclusive.
-Shantae not nearly as requested or as popular as other Third Parties
OVERALL RATING: .33%

Want: 1%- Patty Wagon.

Spoiler

Police Robot Cop > Genie IMO.

Unlockable Newcomers:
My line was stolen, yet again by @ Pacack !

Unlockable Newcomers: 99.5%
I'm not even joking. I will justify myself with this:

It's already in Mega Man's trailer. That practically confirms that we're having unlockable characters.

99.99% chance.

Want: 50%- Either I want everything revealed at launch or this. Surprise or knowing everything, Just as long as we don't see the Brawl stuff again where everything was ruined for us.

Predictions:
Surly the Gunhog- 1% for unrealism. Third Party Magic Rule.
Origami Mario- 15% for balance, but really? We have Rosalina already and a Paper Mario franchise in Smash seems unlikely. Look at all Links and Dr. Mario.

Nominations:
Jack Frost (SMT) X5

 

[colder_than_ice]

Alexandra and Sandbag's new rating have been added to the popularity chart.

Shantae
Chance: 0% - Because there are just too many big third-party characters ahead of her.
Want: 56% - I'm not familiar, but she seems like a cool character.

Unlockable Newcomers
Chance: 99% - Can anyone name five fighting game sequels where this hasn't happened?
Want: 50% - I just don't care.

Shadow prediction: 2.7%

Paper Mario prediction: 12%

Nominations: <10% character becomes playable. x5

 

[BluePikmin11]

Gonna do a quicky, I'm watching the movie Frozen again.
Unlockable Newcomers Chance: 99% If Third Parties are auto unlockable there's no way it should really go lower than
90%.
UNW: 100%
Nominations:
All Popular Newcomer Candidates x5

 

[NickerBocker]

Shantae
Abstain

Id prefer Not to rate this one.

Unlockable newcomers
Chance: 99%
Want: 100%

The challenger approaching sign is a staple to Smash. Ever since 64, when it appears, it has caused extreme hype. It has appeared in Megamans trailer, so we know its returning. Weve had newcomers appear this way in every game. Unless Sakurai scraps the idea entirely, then its going to happen.

I really hope this feature returns. I know the hardcore fanbase doesnt like it as much, but it usually doesnt take too long to unlock everybody anyways, and its always exciting to see newcomers like this.

Shadow: 1.67%
Paper Mario: 4.3%

Nominations:
Lupus x5

 

[Chandeelure]

-Shantae:
Chances: 0%
Want: 0%

-Unlockable Newcomers: Wat?
Chances: 100%
Want: 100%

-Shadow Prediction: 0,9%

-Paper Mario Prediction: 5,3%

-Nominations: Robin (FE) X5

 

[Karafuru]

Shantae:
-I am abstaining once more.

Unlockable Newcomers:
-Chance: 97%
MegaMan is most likely an unlockable, but regardless I doubt we will be seeing all newcomers before launch.
-Want: 90%
I would enjoy it as I love unlocking characters and the like, but I don't think unlocking is really groundbreaking enough for me to get upset if it were not here.

Predictions:
-Shadow the Hedgehog: 1.1% (Once again, solely for the outliers that some people may give.)
-Paper Mario: 4.8% (He still has a chance, but it is a slim one thanks to Rosalina.)

Nominations:
5x Jack Frost (SMT)

 

[Sid-cada]

Shantae

Chance - 0.01% - She's a character known for being mostly loyal to Nintendo, but from a very minor company. While I think it could be possible for her to get in, it's so small that it's almost ignorable.

Want - 86% - A third party who feels right at home admits the rest of the characters. WayForward is such a good company that I honestly think they deserve it. Shantae, in my opinion, is the only one from WayForward who would make it in.

Besides, the writer and artist for Cucumber Quest/Hiimdasy is involved with some of there latest games. I'd throw money at her if I could.


Unlockable Newcomers

Chance - 80% - Don't get me wrong, if we get unlockables we're definitely getting newcomers in there. It's just that I'm not as certain that we're getting unlockables in the first place. Call it doubt due to getting characters who would be traditionally unlockable from appearing.

Want - 50% - Don't really care.


Wait, more extra nominations? ... Wow. So soon? Yeah, at this rate I might be running a monopoly on them.


Nominations
Chrom as an Assist Trophy X10

 

[pandajedi]

Shantae:
Chance: 00%
Want- 30% - there are much worse options out there

Unlockable Newcomers
Chance: 90%- I would be very surprised if every newcomer was unlocked from the start.
Want: 100%- Unlocking a newcomer would be exciting

Nominations
Crash Bandicoot x5

 

[UltimateWario]

Unlockable Characters
Chance: 99.9%
Want: 0% - I'm tired of waiting to play as ****ing Ridley.

Shantae
Chance: 0.5%
Want: Abstain - I've never played any of her games, so I don't think it's fair for me to decide.

 

[Spears In Smash Bros.]

Shatner: 0.2%
Third-party, American, indie.

Want: 45%

Unlockable Newcomers: 99.6%
An integral part of every SSB game.

Want: 100%
If the Smash Bros. series didn't have these, the games wouldn't have been nearly as popular as they are.

Ow The Edge prediction: 0.86%
Paper Mario prediction: 36.63%

Nominate:
Marshal (Rhythm Heaven) x5

 

[LoneKonWolf]

I still can't believe a fight broke out because of sandbag . . .
shantae - 0.05%
third party, indie, not legendary, the list continues
want - 0%
if we were to get an indie, i'll prefer quote
unlockable newcomers - 99.99%
part of every smashbros game, we've seen the challenger approaching sign (which is used to show off an unlockable), along with megaman being an newcomer and third party, practically guarantees he is an unlockable
this isn't going anywhere, whether people like it or not
want - 90%
its exciting, its wonderful, and it keeps interest in the games . . . for the first or second time, after you lose the data again (for someone like me, its common) it becomes a chore to unlock them again, its something you don't really want to deal with, luckily its rare
but hey, first impressions are what make these things great
shadow - 1.72%
a nightmare is coming
paper Mario - 5.28%
Rosalina practically deconfirms all Mario newcomers, and Waluigi enforces that
nominations:

Nominations: Snake x5 (Could someone help me here?)

eh sure mate, mine can wait awhile
SnakeX5

 

[UltimateWario]

...are we seriously rating Shadow? Seriously?

 

[Erimir]

Shantae

She's not that big of a deal.

Shantae chances: 0.1%

Shantae want: 30%
Indifference fading into annoyance that we didn't get someone cooler.

Unlockable newcomers chance: 95%
It's basically confirmed. It also would not surprise me if Sakurai reveals the whole cast but still keeps some of them locked.
Unlockable newcomers want: 80%
For some reason, I just enjoy it, even though in theory I get to sit down and enjoy the full roster from the start without it...

Predictions:
Shadow - 4%
If Knuckles got a couple percent, surely Shadow will too. For some reason.
Paper Mario - 8%

Nominations
50+ Characters x5

 

[Deleted member]

...are we seriously rating Shadow? Seriously?

Well he got nominated on here and he isn't ineligible. I mean, it could be worse… we could be rating Goku, Miiverse's most wanted character, or maybe an even worse Sonic character… like Princess Elise from Sonic 06.

 

[UltimateWario]

Well he got nominated on here and he isn't ineligible. I mean, it could be worse… we could be rating Goku, Miiverse's most wanted character, or maybe an even worse Sonic character… like Princess Elise from Sonic 06.

I'd rather have Goku.

And at least Elise was only around for one game.

 

[Deleted member]

First things first, looks like the character I nominated is almost up. Just in case, as it is slightly confusing, @ Groose this is the character. I just wanted to make sure you knew that, as the English translation of Arino's show is called the same thing, but the show is simply the inspiration for the game. I'll leave the rest up to research, but I felt I needed to clarify that factoid.

Shantae

0.1% Chance: The company that makes Shantae is a supporter of Nintendo and she is a mascot befitting of Smash Bros, she's simply very obscure and not that popular. I tend to think that Kickstarter characters are not prominent enough as a rule to be newcomers, as it tends to mean the IP is not very well regarded among publishers, including Nintendo.

Of course there's also the fact she's a third-party and that she would annoy those who wanted Snake back if he didn't get in, or Pac-Man fans if he doesn't get in, and the list goes on. She'd open the floodgates for other obscure third-parties too, without being all that prestigious a rep to warrant that. We're talking Solid Snake levels of prominence, Shantae just doesn't measure up.

75% Want: First to go over the negatives I perceive. She's not from a series I know all that much about, I've hardly touched the games. There are also other third-parties I'd prefer, if she was a true second-party I'd be a lot more open to the idea.

In terms of positives, she has a very strong personality and is one of the best female characters out there, just tonnes of fun. There are others who can use similar magic as Shantae but not in such a directly creative way as she can, I honest prefer her to Takamaru, a similarly diverse magic user. I wish Nintendo would buy up this series in the same way it did Bayonetta 2, as I'd love for circumstances to change and for her to become a real contender for Smash 5.

Unlockable Newcomers

99% Chance and 50% Want: It happens in every single game. It may not be a hugely important newcomer or one that is anything more than a clone, but it's guaranteed to be there. I honestly do not care, though, whether it's in or not. It'd be okay to unlock characters again, but that was only really fun at all for me in Melee when I didn't go on the internet and was genuinely surprised by what I unlocked. At this point I'm totally indifferent.

Shadow the Hedgehog Prediction: 0.9%
He was an assist trophy and has fans apparently, but he is a joke compared to Tails, Knuckles or Robotnik.
Paper Mario Prediction: 7%
His chances were killed by Rosalina's reveal. Too much effort for two Mario newcomers when it already has the most reps.

Jack Frost x5

 

[McDuckletts]

Shantae
Chance: 0.1%
Not entirely impossible, but if she makes it in then consider it an impressive leap.
Want: 50%
Indifference...again...

Unlockable newcomers
Chance: 99.99%
Unlocking newcomers has always been a thing in Smash, and it's most likely not going away for this installment.
Want: 50%
On one hand, unlockable newcomers gives me a reason to play the single player. On the other, I would prefer to have every character unlocked from the start.
Hmmm...

Predictions
Shadow: 0.27%
I'm expecting a lot of negativity tomorrow.
Paper Mario: 9.12% ;_;

Nom: Solid Snake X5

 

[Mega Bidoof]

Shantae Chance: 1%
Like most other third-parties, the main thing Shantae has that kills her chances is the fact that there are very limited third-party slots and more iconic charcters.
That's the only thing going against here.

Shantae Want: 5%
Never played a Shantae game in my life, and from what I know there are a lot more deserving characters ahead of her.


Unlockable Newcomers Chance: 99.8%
How is this not going to happen. It's always happened, and it always will. End of story,

Unlockable Newcomer Want: 100%
Should continue to happen like in previous Smash games. I want suprised in Smash!


Shadow Prediction: 0.666%
There may be more hate than Sandbag. Shadow, having a poorly-made third-person-shooter doesn't make you cool, it just makes you a wannabe CoD Soldier. Nobody likes your inclusion in Smah. Not even I, the guy who supports everyone, like you.

Paper Mario Prediction: 0.5%
You were condemned on December 18th 2013.
You're chances are extremely SLIM! *buddum tsss*


Omnomnominations: X5 Roy

 

[Hippopotasauce]

Here are all the characters, stages, and concepts listed by their "want" rating.

Spoiler

Possible newcomers

1. King K. Rool - 85.46%
2. Ridley - 81.21%
3. Little Mac (confirmed) - 77.00%
4. Palutena - 75.07%
5. Banjo Kazooie - 72.57%
6. Isaac - 68.46%
7. Dixie Kong - 68.25%
8. Shulk - 66.79%
9. Waddle Dee - 64.26%
10. Bomberman - 59.83%
11. Takamaru - 57.51%
12. Robin/Avatar - 56.00%
13. Dillon - 54.23%
14. Hades - 52.19%
15. Solo Tetra - 51.03%
16. Paper Mario - 50.97%
17. Toad - 50.29%
18. Pac-Man - 50.21%
19. Porky - 48.66%
20. Rhythm Wrestler - 48.50%
21. Lucina - 47.73%
22. Mona - 46.86%
23. Amaterasu - 46.53%
24. Toon Zelda and Tetra - 45.28%
25. Ray - 45.05%
26. Professor Layton - 44.89%
27. Anna - 44.77%
28. Mach Rider - 44.75%
29. Bowser Jr. - 44.55%
30. Chibi Robo - 44.47%
31. Simon Belmont - 44.43%
32. Waluigi (deconfirmed) - 44.13%
33. Meowth - 43.81%
34. Groose - 43.58%
35. Black Shadow - 43.00%
36. Blaziken - 42.93%
37. Rosalina (confirmed) - 42-90%
38. Muddy Mole - 42.54%
39. Saki - 42.46%
40. Rayman - 42.32%
41. Masked Man - 42.00%
42. Phoenix Wright - 41.98%
43. Midna - 41.95%
44. Skull Kid (deconfirmed) - 41.47%
45. Captain Rainbow - 40.74%
46. Starfy (deconfirmed) - 40.03%
47. Zoroark - 39.42%
48. Tom Nook - 38.46%
49. Samurai Goroh - 38.44%
50. Jimmy T. - 38.31%
51. Ganon - 38.29%
52. New Pokemon Trainer - 37.95%
53. (tie) Lynn - 37.86%
53. (tie) Sukapon - 37.86%
55. Black Mage - 37.78%
56. Andy - 37.38%
57. Cranky Kong - 37.20%
58. Wonder Red - 37.10%
59. Daitoryo - 36.80%
60. Donbe and Hikari - 36.79%
61. Kamek - 36.06%
62. Duck Hunt Dog - 35.43%
63. Fawful - 34.52%
64. Vaati - 34.30%
65. Excitebiker - 33.96%
66. Grovyle - 33.91%
67. Ghirahim - 33.76%
68. Matthew - 33.36%
69. Slime - 32.65%
70. Goku - 31.82%
71. Lip - 31.81%
72. Tails - 31.67%
73. Geno - 31.65%
74. Professor E. Gadd - 31.63%
75. Chrom and Lucina - 31.56%
76. Chrom - 31.46%
77. Magolor - 31.16%
78. Prince of Sable - 30.57%
79. Klonoa - 29.66%
80. Impa - 28.61%
81. Master Hand - 28.59%
82. Lloyd Irving - 28.34%
83. (tie) Mii - 28.26%
83. (tie) Medusa - 28.26%
85. Balloon fighter - 27.88%
86. Genesect - 27.75%
87. Ashley (deconfirmed) - 27.43%
88. Knuckles - 27.34%
89. Captain Syrup - 27.26%
90. Krystal - 27.05%
91. King Boo - 26.42%
92. Zero - 26.33%
93. Dark Samus - 26.32%
94. Alexandra Roivas - 26.29%
95. Slippy Toad - 25.35%
96. Masked Link - 24.91%
97. Travis Touchdown - 24.72%
98. Karate Joe - 24.71%
99. Dark Pit - 24.55%
100. Yarne - 24.52%
101. Victini - 24.39%
102. Ephraim - 24.05%
103. Aeron - 23.90%
104. Louie - 23.55%
105. Tingle - 23.31%
106. Harry - 22.52%
107. Quote 22.17%
108. Dr. Kawashima - 22.12%
109. Niku and Shiki - 21.84%
110. Leon - 21.79%
111. Sora - 21.49%
112. Alph - 21.36%
113. Zael - 21.18%
114. Bayonetta - 20.70%
115. Diskun - 20.12%
116. Isa - 19.79%
117. Micaiah - 18.98%
118. Sandbag - 18.72%
119. Eevee - 18.25%
120. Dark Matter - 17.67%
121. Rhythm Monkey - 17.65%
122. Reggie - 17.44%
123. Sheriff - 16.82%
124. Yarne and Owain - 16.38%
125. Sylveon - 16.20%
126. Tharja - 16.17%
127. Magnus - 15.79%
128. Alph, Brittany, and Charlie - 15.64%
129. Owain - 14.51%
130. Tiny Kong - 14.39%
131. Mike Jones - 14.18%
132. Anthony - 13.64%
133. Plasm Wraith - 13.43%
134. Daisy - 13.14%
135. Scrooge Mcduck - 12.96%
136. Count Bleck - 11.90%
137. Goemon - 11.80%
138. Omastar - 11.63%
139. Pauline - 11.43%
140. Nintendog - 11.13%
141. Ryu 10.00%
142. Stork - 9.75%
143. Primid - 9.05%
144. Chef Kawasaki - 9.03%
145. Nightmare - 8.58%
146. Reyn - 8.00%
147. Bulborb - 7.94%
148. Cloud - 7.75%
149. Ninten - 7.61%
150. Chancellor Cole - 7.59%
151. Athena Cykes 6.08%

Huge gap

152. Adam Malkovich - 0.43%

Veterans

1. Gannondorf - 90.62%
2. Mr. Game & Watch - 90.51%
3. Ice Climbers - 88.28%
4. Wolf - 84.17%
5. Mewtwo - 82.57%
6. Sonic (confirmed) - 80.75%
7. ROB - 80.06%
8. Lucas - 80.04%
9. Jigglypuff - 79.06%
10. Sheik - 79.02%
11. Ike - 77.59%
12. Pokemon Trainer - 77.00%
13. Falco - 74.74%
14. Lucario (confirmed) - 72.36%
15. Snake - 69.00%
16. Toon Link (confirmed) - 64.54%
17. Roy - 42.82%
18. Pichu - 25.90%
19. Dr. Mario - 18.01%
20. Young Link 6.52%

Stages

1. Bowser's Castle - 83.33%
2. Kirby's Epic Yarn - 68.48%
3.Rhythm Heaven - 68.31%
4. Gangplank Galleon - 65.30%
5. Super Mario 3D world - 64.77%
6. Tetris - 62.89%
7. Dr. Mario - 57. 13%
8. Cookie Country - 48.96%
9. Nutty Noon - 48.59%
10. Gyromite - 46.48%

Concepts

1. Promoted AT (confirmed) - 90.47%
2. Improved Stage Builder - 85.15%
3. Decloned Gannondorf - 82.24%
4. 4 Donkey Kong reps - 75.60%
5. Brawl Pokemon + Mewtwo - 74.11%
6. Extensive Alternate Costumes - 73.51%
7. DLC - 71.84%
8. Spear User - 66.36%
9. Zelda Newcomer - 64.67%
10. Unplayable Hanafuda rep - 62.17%
11. No Cuts - 57.91%
12. No Namco rep - 53.92%
13. Yoshi Overhaul - 50.87%
14. Playable Boss Mode - 43.04%
15. 6 Mario characters - 40. 78%
16. Rhythm Heaven rep - 37.98%
17. Fatal Frame rep - 35. 77%
18. Pokemon AT - 34.48%
19. Split up Pokemon Trainer - 26.48%
20. Bowser Jr. + Shadow Mario - 17.89%

If anyone sees any mistakes on here please let me know. I'll try to edit this at the end of each day, but please don't hold me to it.

Surprised to see Wrestler in the top 20.

 

[loganhogan]

Shantae
chance 7.77%
Wayforward and Nintendo get along just fine but third party slots are very limited. Although for an indie character she is very noticeable, and has history with Nintendo but that's about it.
want 77%

Unlockable newcomers
chance 99% This always happens.
want 100%

x5 Dr. Lobe

predict
0.9% Shadow
3% Paper Mario

 

[FalKoopa]

Shantae:
Likelihood: 0.8%
Being a third party is her biggest obstacle. Though, her company is faithful to Nintendo, so that counts for something I guess.

Want: 60%
I like her design, although I haven't played her games.

Unlockable Newcomers:
Likelihood: 100%
Mega Man and Rosalina are unlockable material.

Want: 89%
I like unlockables, as I adds more play value to the game. But a part of me is a lazy bum who wouldn't mind everything unlocked from the start.

Shadow prediction: 0.8%
I expect a lot of hate tomorrow.

Paper Mario prediction: 5%
His chances were already thin, and now Rosalina tore them apart like a sheet of paper.

Wild Gunman x 10

 

[andimidna]

Shantae:
Chance: 5%
The obvious choice for an Indie game rep. Sad thing is, there's no way in hell we're getting an Indie game rep.
Want: 70%
She looks cool. That's all I got.
Unlockable Newcomers:
Chance: 99.99%
Duh.
Want: 100%
Yes. I don't want to buy the game and have everything sitting there for me, I'd feel no accomplishment, and I'd probably barely play the first day I got it.
It would be an instant de-hype, and that sucks.
Predictions:
Shadow: 1.9%
I've been waiting for this day for a while. I expect a pool of 0s and 3 high votes that give him a percent, and a few lazy votes tossing 10s at everything.
Paper Mario:

His chances were already thin, and now Rosalina tore them apart like a sheet of paper.

This.
Except I'll go with 5.85%

Noms coming soon
For now...
x1 Dillon
x1 Fyer & Falbi
x1 Ghirahim
x2 Tiki

X3 Fyer and Fabli (Oh dear… Fire Emblem?)

Nope!

From the Legend of Zelda!!!
Aren't they beautiful?

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Shantae
0% Chance
75% want
Her games are fun

Unlockables Characaters
Double 100%s

Nominating Lucas (The Wizard) x5
(Closely tied to video games, has been on the Power Glove, he fits, by technicality XD)


Shadow 3.33%
Paper Mario 11.22%

 

[YoshiandToad]

Right, so we're going to have a non-rage inducing character tomorrow, too, am I right? Am I right? Oh. Shadow. Right. Uh-oh. Please predict how Shadow the Hedgehog and Paper Mario will do.

I warn you now Groose; this is my most hated video game character of all time. Of ALL time. You thought I gave Bowser Jr. a hard time? He's only second to this guy.

I'd like to extend an apology to the Shadow fans in advance, but I'm going to try my darned best not to let my dislike of the character affect the chance score and try and explain just why I dislike Shadow so darn much within the want section. At the very least hopefully people will be less offended if they can see where I'm coming from and that it's not ALL bile.

Shantae
Chance: 2%
The most likely Nint-indie-o rep. Which means precisely nothing. Sony and Steam are more about Indie than Nintendo honestly.

Want: 60%
I can see the appeal and although I have yet to play her game, I can see the potential. I just don't think it'll happen...

Unlockable Newcomers:
Chance: 100%
...Unlike this. And yes I am that confident in us having unlockable newcomers I'm not even going to say there's .5% chance we don't after three games. No question we're getting unlockables. They might be revealed prior to the game's release or they might not, but there's no doubt in my mind we're getting them.

Want: 100%
I like the feeling of earning additional characters. Admittedly I can see why it'd be slightly annoying if you go to a friend's house who doesn't own the game, but since I don't have to put up with that(nearly all my friends who'd be interested in playing Smash will have unlocked everyone) I don't really care.

I still wouldn't be surprised if Rosalina, Toon Link and Luigi were unlockable despite their reveals.

Predictions:
Shadow: 2%
He's popular for a Sonic character, especially on Miiverse, but most people here don't take secondary Sonic characters too seriously and he's behind Tails, Knuckles and Eggman on Smashboards.

Paper Mario: 12.5%
Many see ANY Mario newcomer being dead in the water after Rosalina came along. Paper Mario COULD technically rep his own series so he may get at least the above?

Nomination:
Dillon X 5
I actually really like Dillon but he should only really be a dark horse candidate. He's probably quite a bit overrated.

 

[andimidna]

What I don't understand about the results is, why did Chrom and Robin flip scores?
Chrom was suddenly seen as unwanted and less likely, when Robin suddenly became likely and wanted?
What is that?

 

[YoshiandToad]

What I don't understand about the results is, why did Chrom and Robin flip scores?
Chrom was suddenly seen as unwanted and less likely, when Robin suddenly became likely and wanted?
What is that?

Only explanation I can think of was everyone was on the "uniqueness is top priority" phase. Rosalina had shown that the obvious choices may not always get picked. Bowser Jr. in this case was by far the most popular choice for a Mario newcomer, seen to have the most potential AND be the most likely. Then the fifth most popular Mario newcomer got picked. Sucker punch'd.

Since Chrom is essentially a half way house between Marth and Ike (both in fighting style and looks), people wondered if there was a more unique option.
Robin is the deutagonist(Tritagonist if you count Lucina), and offers magic as well as swordplay, can offer a female alt, is not yet another blue haired lord with a sword and specifically doesn't use the Falchion like Marth and the other two likely Awakening choices of Chrom and Lucina.

Needless to say he/she was seen as the most unique option available as a result.

Hope that explains it.

 

[Pacack]

Only explanation I can think of was everyone was on the "uniqueness is top priority" phase. Rosalina had shown that the obvious choices may not always get picked. Bowser Jr. in this case was by far the most popular choice for a Mario newcomer, seen to have the most potential AND be the most likely. Then the fifth most popular Mario newcomer got picked. Sucker punch'd.

Since Chrom is essentially a half way house between Marth and Ike (both in fighting style and looks), people wondered if there was a more unique option.
Robin is the deutagonist(Tritagonist if you count Lucina), and offers magic as well as swordplay, can offer a female alt, is not yet another blue haired lord with a sword and specifically doesn't use the Falchion like Marth and the other two likely Awakening choices of Chrom and Lucina.

Needless to say he/she was seen as the most unique option available as a result.

Hope that explains it.

Here, here!

 

[Toxicroaker]

Now that I have played Fire Emblem: Awakening, I have changed my opinion on Fire Emblem characters.

I see the chances we get three fire emblem reps as 85%. I think that we will be seeing Ike again, but I will give him a 90%. That gives us a 95% chance of having a newcomer. Here are my percents of all Fire Emblem characters based on that.

Marth: 100%
Ike: 90%
Chrom: 55%
Robin: 15%
Roy: 15%
Lucina: 5%
Lyn: 2%
Other Past Lord: 1%
Anna: 1%
Other: 1%

 

[PK_Wonder]

Shantae 0.6%
Unlockable Newcomers 99.99%

predict Shadow 0.8%
Paper Mario 11%

Flynn x5

 

[Knight Dude]

Shantae

Chances: 8%: She does have a closer connection to Nintendo than any other company. And there's no doubt that she could offer some cool stuff by transforming into various animals and junk. It sounds like enough to make a decent moveset. But the main issue is that she's not really "legendary". If she were to become more popular, then Shantae would be a decent choice to look at. As of now though, it's sort of a pipe dream.

Want: 65%: Again, being able to transform into various things with her powers would be cool to use. And use could fight with her hair like Sindel from Mortal Kombat. Even if that's sort of stepping on Dixie Kong's toes. I don't know, if you made some sort of fan-made Smash game, she would be an ideal choice I suppose.

Unlockable Characters: 90%: Some fighting games nowadays seem to not have unlock-able characters anymore. However, some games like Mortal Kombat 9 and Soul Calibur 5 still use them. So it isn't entirely impossible either. I still see it as likely as it gives the more casual players more incentive to play the game over and over. As for how much I would want that to happen, I could take it or leave it honestly.

 

[NickerBocker]

What I don't understand about the results is, why did Chrom and Robin flip scores?
Chrom was suddenly seen as unwanted and less likely, when Robin suddenly became likely and wanted?
What is that?

The way i see it, is when awakening came out and people were speculating for Smash 4, Chrom seemed like the good fit, whether or not Ike would be cut for his inclusion. Now whether or not people actually liked Chrom or were just accepting the idea that he was "next in line" is debatable, but I can say, at least for me, that I wasn't against the idea of Chrom and I'm still not, but that Robin is the better choice, both for uniqueness and to break this redundancy that FE seems to keep falling in to. Chrom can be unique, but Robin has greater potential for uniqueness.

Now i still think that Chrom has the best chance, because this seems to be what FE does. All the anti-Chrom talk has taken place after the roster has been decided, so he's still the frontrunner. Of course, there's always Roy, who is highly requested to return in Japan. Robin, IMO, is a little ahead of Roy, but just behind Chrom still in Chance.

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Abstaining from Shantae. Don't know anything about her franchise.

Unlockable Newcomers - 99%

The concept has been in every Smash game so far, we've seen the "Challenger approaching" banner in Mega Man's trailer. It's one of the biggest reasons why several of the single player modes are often played. With all this in mind, I really can't see there being no unlockable characters, or at least no unlockable newcomers this time around. There will at least be some unlockable newcomers, and I'm near certain there will be unlockable veterans as well.

EDIT: Shoot, I almost forgot the want part.

Want - 100%

I really enjoy unlocking characters, it's always satisfying.

Shadow Prediction - 0.12%

Paper Mario Prediction - 5.06%

Happy Mask Salesman x5

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Unlockable Newcomers:

Chance: 100% - I don't see why this would change.

Want: 50% - I like the feeling of unlocking someone who has his/her/its Smash debut, but I wouldn't be sad if it was taken out for whatever reason, after all the starting roster is only something that lasts for 1% of the time I spend with the game. I'm also going to check leaks either way.

Shadow Prediction: 0.5% - I'd rather predict his want score, this guy might give Adam a run for his money.

Paper Mario Prediction: 8.6%

Nominations:
10x Other M Ridley

 

[Aqua Rock X]

SHANTAE

Chance: 0% - Non-legendary third party.

Want: 30% - Could be mildly interesting I suppose.

UNLOCKABLE NEWCOMERS

Chance: 100% - Eerr yeah......

Want: 75% - I'd really like to unlock the newcomers so yeah.

Shadow Prediction: 0.5% - Not likely to be rated high.

Paper Mario Prediction: 10% - General consensus is Rosalina is the last Mario Newcomer.

Nominations:
Other M Ridley x5

 

[Groose]

Nope!

From the Legend of Zelda!!!
Aren't they beautiful?

Is that.. the cannon guy and the cuckoo guy from Twilight Princess? No...