Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[Pacack]

Tiny Kong:

Chance: 1%
Behind K. Rool, Dixie, Cranky, and in competition with others, such as Funky Kong.

Want: 0%
No thanks. I'm not fond of the design, have no attachment to the character, and prefer K. Rool and Cranky by far.

Spear User: 60%
I could see Sakurai going for it. There's Waddle Dee, possible Chrom, Anna maybe, Ephraim...GANON! OH, I FORGOT GANON!

Want: 20% 93%
I prefer swords, personally. And I want an axe far more. Looking at the possibilities, I at least kinda like all those characters, so yes, please. Ganon or Waddle Dee would make my day. Especially Ganon. kthnxbai.

Prediction for Young Link: 2.3%
Percentage lower than Pichu because Toon Link is a thing.

Noms: x5 Pac-man. Someone else give me an extra nom so he's ahead of No Namco characters. He should be done first.

 

[Hippopotasauce]

Tiny Likelihood: 0%
Want: 0%

Spear User Likelihood: 30%
Want: 50%

Young Link: .55%

Rhythm Heaven stage x5

 

[Depressed Gengar]

Sorry, @ Pacack , but I'm nominating Kawasaki until the day we rate him. XD Otherwise, I'd go for Pac-Man.

 

[colder_than_ice]

Tiny Kong
Chance: 0% (I hand out too many of these) - Dixie and K. Rool are the go-to-guys for a third D.K. rep. I honestly cannot even fathom a realistic reason as to why another D.K. rep would get in ahead of them.
Want: 4% - I would strongly prefer Dixie.

Waddle Dee............(Oops, I mean spear user)
Chance: 37% - This just seems like a very subtle way to get Waddle Dee renominated without actually renominating him. He's really the only spear user that I can think of who has a shot (Chrom will definitely use his sword if he's playable). I'm giving it the same score I gave Waddle Dee.
Want: 90% - Spears are so underrated.

Young Link prediction: 1% - Pichu will be sleeping peacefully tonight.

Nominations: Gyromite stage x5

 

[Deleted member]

Tiny Kong and Spear User have been added to the Directory.

Tiny Kong
Chance: 0%
Every Donkey Kong character we've rated thus far has something redeemable about them to justify an appearance in Smash.

King K. Rool: Popular character that people are demanding to return in the Donkey Kong franchise. He is one of the most requested characters worldwide.
Dixie Kong: Popular character who didn't make the cut in Brawl as data of her is left over. She is a popular character that people want worldwide (not as much as King K. Rool) and her playable appearance in Tropical Freeze DEFINITELY helps her.
Cranky Kong: He's playable in Tropical Freeze and his announcement caused some people to get… cranky (he was trending on Twitter in fact). He's clearly the third place guy.
Funky Kong: Again, he got popular thanks to fans of Mario Kart. Otherwise, he doesn't have much to him.

Tiny Kong? I can't find a redeemable thing. She can do some of the same things as Dixie Kong can, right? I've seen Tiny Kong use her hair to float much like Dixie Kong can… and that annihilates any sort of uniqueness she has going for her. I dunno how to incorporate her going tiny in a moveset to be honest.
She's also not that popular by the Smash fanbase nor is she really requested. Heck, she is highly irrelevant as she mostly appears in spin-offs nowadays.
Overall… Tiny Kong being playable is unjustifiable. I can't see her get added before King K. Rool, Dixie Kong, Cranky Kong, and even Funky Kong.
Want: 0%
What a highly disappointing character if Sakurai chose her.
Tiny Kong also irks me a bit. I dunno why she was created for Donkey Kong 64 when Dixie Kong can easily do what she could do. Also, I don't like her designs; both her classic design and redesign.

Spear User
Chance: 50%
Bandana Dee or bust really. There are Fire Emblem characters, but the more main and recent lords don't use spears. Yes, Chrom uses a lance, but he isn't known for that. The other spear users within that franchise don't seem likely to me either.
For reference, this is 30% lower than what I gave to Bandana Dee (80%). It's not that I think that he is any less likely, but I find that other spear users are highly unlikely, so I had to take that into account.
Want: 50%
100% specifically for Bandana Dee. If any other spear user gets added, such as one from Fire Emblem, I would be disappointed. So… my complete want for Bandana Dee and either my complete indifference or complete disinterest evens it out to 50%.

Young Link Prediction: .70%
Finally we can annihilate this kid.
This is the same prediction that I gave to Mask Link and that gained me 10 extra nominations. Let's see if that can work again here…

Nominations: Funky time is over… but Reyn time is never over. 5x

My line orignally read something like, "and people will remember their contributions." But then I couldn't help but slip in a Xenoblade reference. I was expecting someone to catch it... but not quite that fast.

You Will Know Our Names is by far my favorite song from Xenoblade. When I saw you say that, I knew immediately what you were referencing.

 

[Smasher 101]

Tiny's chances: 0% - Once again, we have two clear frontrunners and one other Kong with a small chance. I can't see why Tiny would be picked.
Want: 0% - Like with Funky, I would be disappointed if she got in over K. Rool or Dixie.

Spear user's chances: 8% 15% - I've said it before, and I'll say it again: I can't see Kirby reaching four reps, and therefore I don't think Waddle Dee is happening. Aside from him...who else is there? Some random Fire Emblem characters? Unless I think of another spear user who has an ok chance, I'm keeping this one low.

EDIT: OK, there is a chance Chrom or Lucina could get a spear if they got in, though I doubt it. Still, it's enough for me to raise my score. Everyone else mentioned is pretty unlikely in my eyes and I'm not counting staffs.
Want: 50% - Depends who it is.

Young Link prediction: 0.24%

Pac-Man x5

 

[Headcrab Jackalope]

Tiny Kong

Chance: 1%- Almost no chance.

Want: 1%- Another one of my least favorite Kongs.

Spear User

Chance: 50%- Sakurai could go either way.

Want: 40%- It seems like it could be cool.

Young Link Prediction

0.46%

Finally we can annihilate this kid.

Nominations

Plasm Wraith x5

 

[Chandeelure]

-Tiny Kong:
Chances:0%
Want:0%

-Spear User:
Chances: Bandana Dee and/or Fire Emblem character including Chrom? 92%
Want:100%

-Young Link prediction:0%

Nomination:Toon Zelda/ Tetra X5

Waddle Dee............(Oops, I mean spear user)
This just seems like a very subtle way to get Waddle Dee renominated without actually renominating him.

 

[Louie G.]

Expect this next time we rate an N64 Kong also.

TINY KONG:

Chance: 1%
K. Rool, Dixie, Cranky.

Want: 5%
K. Rool, Dixie, Cranky.

SPEAR USER:

Chance: 45%
Personally the only plausible one is Waddle Dee. And I SUPPOSE Chrom could use one, but it's more likely that he doesn't.

Want: 95%
Dee's cool.

Young Link Prediction: 0.65%
Nope.

Noms: Super Mario 3D World Stage x5

 

[Pacack]

Tiny's chances: 0% - Once again, we have two clear frontrunners and one other Kong with a small chance. I can't see why Tiny would be picked.
Want: 0% - Like with Funky, I would be disappointed if she got in over K. Rool or Dixie.

Spear user's chances: 8% - I've said it before, and I'll say it again: I can't see Kirby reaching four reps, and therefore I don't think Waddle Dee is happening. Aside from him...who else is there? Some random Fire Emblem characters? Unless I think of another spear user who has an ok chance, I'm keeping this one low.
Want: 50% - Meh.

Young Link prediction: 0.24%

Pac-Man x5

Thank you.

And let me look at who we've rated to see what spear users there are besides Bandana Waddle Dee...

I don't think Palutena counts, but her staff is at least similar.
Possibility of Chrom using his spear
Krystal has a staff, but, again, I'm not sure if that counts.
Anna from Fire Emblem was a merchant and some of her supporters say that she could use a spear among several other weapons.
Pig Ganon with his trident (I didn't remember, I'm ashamed, I'll change my rating a bit)
I suppose Toad could use a spear
Ephraim (Fire Emblem)

That's all of em.

 

[Depressed Gengar]

Wait, Anna has a spear?! More of a reason to support her.

 

[Pacack]

Wait, Anna has a spear?! More of a reason to support her.

Not when she's playable in awakening, but many of the movesets that I've seen are flexible with it since she was a shopkeeper and owned tons of weapons and whatnot. Edited my post to reflect that. Also, I don't agree with your signature. Tiki is best non-Lord Lord. She turns into a freaking DRAGON.

 

[Depressed Gengar]

Tiki can turn into Ridley?

 

[Pacack]

Tiki can turn into Ridley?

Nah, this dragon actually eats.

 

[Spears In Smash Bros.]

Tiny Kong: 3%
Funny to see how so many people think she's less likely than Funky.

Want: 10%
Not funky enough.

Spear User: 55%
Chrom, Lucina, or Bandanna Dee. Most likely just one of them.

Want: 60%
I'd hope that Chrom or Lucina would use a spear as part of their movesets if they got in.

Young Link prediction: 0.46%

Nominate:
Tiki x5, since Pacack and KingShadow reminded me.

 

[Sid-cada]

Tiny Kong

Chance - 0% - Take everything I said, and remove the fact that she is very reoccurring. Yep, don't see her coming in at all.

Want - 30% - Not a horrible choice, but many are indefinitely better.


Spear User

Chance - 40.01% - I'm just adding up my scores for Dee and Ephraim here. Anyone else that could be considered a spear user I think either will not have a spear (like Chrom) or I do not consider a proper spear user (Like Pig Gannon)

Want - 61% - An average of the two scores. I really want it to be Dee, but if it's someone else I'll walk away disappointed.


Young Link Prediction - 0.07% - Two words: Toon Link.

Nominations
Epic Yarn Stage X4
Nutty Noon Stage X1

 

[Pacack]

Nominate:
Tiki x5, since Pacack and KingShadow reminded me.

Bless you! I wanted to nominate her once I was done with Diskun and Non-Character Hanafuda Representation. I'll join you with nominating her later.

 

[SmashShadow]

Tiny: 0% No chance whatsoever. Not even if we got 6 reps does she stand a chance.
Want: 0% Wannabe Dixie Kong.

Badana dee Spear User: 30%
Want: 100% I would love some diversity in the weopons department.

5x Kiddy Kong
I'll just follow the trend.

 

[PK_Wonder]

If you could provide a link, I'll definitely link it with the Directory! Seeing as how GameFAQs gave Funky Kong an overall score of 20% while his overall score here will estimably be around 1%-3%, it will be interesting to compare.
Also, as a side note, if there are other RTC threads on other websites, I will gladly link to those if you provide me with one. I mostly would like it for comparisons sake (how we feel vs. how another website feels)..

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/633202-super-smash-bros-for-wii-u/63335887

There we go! It didn't last as long as I remember. 85 Days. This random guy took over in my absence and did some odd things (mainly choosing whatever character he wanted to do that day and ignoring the nominations list, including rerating certain characters like Waluigi and not counting "biased" votes that weren't really biaseduntil he got the results he wanted), so this is the last day I was involved with.

Keep in mind it was summer 2012, before the Wii U was even out. Mewtwo received a low score prior to X&Y reveals. Mega Man scored #11 at 54% chance and "Animal Crosser" was ranked #34 at 23%, one spot below Tom Nook. Rosalina wasn't rated yet. Several characters, including Ghirahim particularly, performed much better.
Overall, the top ten looks VERY familiar to our current results Enjoy the comparisons!

I loved doing it when people weren't nominating or rating like idiots, but how Midbus and Angry Birds ever got rated, I will never understand. and, yes, the next day would have been Commander Shepard of Mass Effect.

EDIT: Looking back, I had some really odd rules too. "We can do revotes. It keeps things fresh with more perspectives, and allows for our list to be fine-tuned with the latest developments. A character must receive 50 nominations again in order to have a revote, and the new scored will be combined with the old one, with the new score having 4/5 the weight. In the case of a revote, we will have a double day." I think my reasoning for that was so that people wouldn't revote a character just to completely try to skew the score because they didn't like where it currently was.

 

[Rouge]

Tiny Kong: Chance: 0.5% - The DK franchise really has no room for Tiny in Smash. Trophy at best and not of the Assist variety.
Want: 0

Spear User: 20% - I wouldn't bet on any of the spear users. Chrom is the most likely and would he really count if his lance was used a single special move and nothing else?

Want: 10% - I love spears as weapons, I do. But besides Ephraim, who I consider to be a character without a shred of a chance, I can't say that I'm really rooting for any of the proposed contenders, sorry.

Young Link prediction: 1.99%

Panther x 5

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Tiny Kong:

Chance: 0.1%
Lanky, Funky, Cranky, Dixie and K.Rool all stand in her way.

Want: 0%
No


Spears in Smash Bros:

Chance: 13%
Bandanna Dee

Want: 25%
Spears are cool, but a character should be chosen on their reasons.

That said if third party ATs are a thing and Arthur can be in the game, I'd be well up for it.


Young Link: 1.4%
Someone will bring up OoT 3D, but TLink will quell most hope.


Hero of Light*5

 

[Captain Toad]

Tiny:
Chance and want: 1% for the same reasons as yesterday, more important characters first.

Spear User: (For me, its basically Bandana Dee or no one)
Chance: 20%
Want: 70% Gotta say I'd like to see a spear user, be something a little different. Though I can't see many other than Bandana Dee being known enough for just using spears.
Krystal maybe?
Some people have mentioned Chrom.
Whilst he can use spears why would they pick a random spear over the falchion, his canon weapon of choice? Just can't see it happening.

Young Link: 10%, with Toon Link in can't see him returning. He was alright though in Melee.

Nominations:

Noms: x5 Pac-man. Someone else give me an extra nom so he's ahead of No Namco characters. He should be done first.

X5 Pac-man. Consider it done.

 

[Pacack]

Nominations:


X5 Pac-man. Consider it done.

Someone else already did it, so you can feel free to spend your nominations on something else I wouldn't be opposed to you keeping them that way if you don't have any other ideas, though

 

[jaytalks]

Tiny Kong
Chances: Very Tiny. In terms of percentages, let's go with 0.0000001%
Want: Even tinier. 0.000000000001%
Concept: Spear User
Chances: To my recollection the only Spear Users with a shot are Bandanna Dee, or a Fire Emblem character (probably dual wielding weapons). So I would say about 15%, with 5% for Bandanna Dee, and 10% for an FE character using one (namely Chrom or Lucina).
Want: 50%. It's an average between 0% for Bandanna Dee and 100% for any version of Lucina (including Spear Wielding).

Young Link: 0.79%
Nominations:
X5 Pac-man.

 

[Deleted member]

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/633202-super-smash-bros-for-wii-u/63335887

Thank you! This will be added to the Directory!

It's interesting to see how high Waluigi's and Lip's scores are. Heck, Pauline managed to get over 10% for some odd reason.

Seeing the Angry Birds get the exact score as Owain (.72%) makes me feel tempted to nominate them. I wanna see them get destroyed…

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

Tiny: .5%
Want: 0%
Spear: 50%
Want: 50%
YL: .2%
Lyn x 5

 

[FalKoopa]

Tiny Kong:
Likelihood: 0%
Nope. She's a bit bottom-of-the-barrel-ish (unintentional reference) character, and doesn't stand a chance when compared to K. Rool, Dixie and Cranky (even Funky.)

Want: 0%
Nope.

Spear user: 10%
Waddle Dee is the only character guaranteed to use a spear should he get in. That's it.

Want: 100%
Sure. We don't have a character that primarily uses a spear.

Young Link prediction: 0.05%
Expecting a lot of flat out zeroes tomorrow.

Promoted AT x 5

 

[BluePikmin11]

Tiny Kong Chance: 1.2%
Tiny Kong Want: 0%

Spear User Chance: 15% Could happen, and B. Dee seems to be the only noticable character that uses a spear.
Spear User Want: 50% Indifferent about it. Unless there was a spear user that uses it in a unique way, I don't really want a spear user.

Young Link prediction: 0.56% Once again have a third Link will make no sense to people when it's still an actual possibility.

Nominations:
x5 Alph Brittany Charlie Trio

 

[YoshiandToad]

Urgh, don't have as much free time today as I'd hope.

Tiny Kong
Chance: 4%
So Tiny could technically be picked, but she was basically a replacement character for Dixie in DK64. A role that was very short lived, as Dixie continued to appear in spinoffs, whilst Tiny for the most part didn't. Both sisters appeared together in Diddy Kong Racing DS where Tiny was given a more humanoid appearance. Frankly considering she's Dixie's sister seeing the younger tower over her big sister whilst having a human like body, and Dixie still looking like a chimpanzee was WEIRD. Tiny's only chance really is if Sakurai goes with his duo for Dixie idea, but instead of Diddy for some reason picks Tiny over Kiddy or Cranky.

Want: 2%
Dixie, K. Rool, Cranky, Lanky, Funky first. Then we'll talk. Maybe.

Spear User
Chance: 50%
Bandana Dee, Krystal, Chrom, Lucina. One of them will get in at least, but in the case of Chrom and Lucina there's no ******* way they'll use a spear/lance over another set of Falchions.

Bandana Dee and Krystal are more likely to use their spears(Krystal's is technically a staff, but close enough) but are less likely to get in over Chrom most likely.

Want: 50%
Bandana Dee: 100%
Lucina: 0%

I am the anti-Jaytalks.

Chrom: 20%
Krystal: 80%

I'm split right down the middle here depending on who gets in with a spear.

Young Link prediction: 0.3%
A third Link would be completely redundant. Masks could make him unique, but I think the majority would rather not bother with ANOTHER potential clone.

Nominations:
5 X Playable Bosses

 

[NickerBocker]

Dixie Tiny Kong
Chance: 3%
Very similar to Dixie, who is more likely at this point.

Want: 50%
DK64 was awesome, but K Rool and Dixie get all my wants

Spear User
Chance: 10%
Want: 50%
A different weapon doesnt guarantee uniqueness, But it does promote it.

Young Link: 1.1%

Nominations :
Pokemon Trainer x5

 

[Chandeelure]

Cogratulations guys, after Rosalina and Dedede's confirmation without any sign of Waddle Dee do you think Bandana Dee is less likely than before.

Even with a Fire Emblem character who can add a little of chances.

Bravo.

 

[Louie G.]

Cogratulations guys, after Rosalina and Dedede's confirmation without any sign of Waddle Dee do you think Bandana Dee is less likely than before.

Even with a Fire Emblem character who can add a little of chances.

Bravo.

Come on Chandy, give it a rest.
I love Waddle Dee, I just don't think that he will make the cut for Smash 4. I don't think Dedede will or ever will affect that (unless he decides to throw Bandana Dee).
And personally I just don't see Chrom using a spear when all the other FE characters so far have just used swords.

So 40% chance Dee gets in.
And 5% chance that Chrom uses a spear.
That's 45%.

And personally I don't see how Rosalina affect's Dee's chances whatsoever.

 

[Deleted member]

Cogratulations guys, after Rosalina and Dedede's confirmation without any sign of Waddle Dee do you think Bandana Dee is less likely than before.

Even with a Fire Emblem character who can add a little of chances.

Bravo.

We are technically rating a spear user in general, not specifically Bandana Dee. So… you have to take that into account.
And for goodness sakes, let's never rate him again.

 

[Chandeelure]

Maybe that was a little exaggerated...sorry.

But, well...
Only the time will tell the truth, just be prepared for another "Rosalina".

 

[Louie G.]

But, well...
Only the time will tell the truth, just be prepared for another "Rosalina".

So...
Cranky Kong?

 

[Toxicroaker]

Tiny Kong: 1%
Want: 10%

Spear User: 57% 61% I rated Bandana Dee at 55% and I think there is a 2% chance of a different person getting it.
Want: 100% Waddle Dee.
EDIT: Ganon gets a 4%

Young Link: 1.1%

 

[Xenigma]

Tiny Kong - 1%
Honestly was prepared to give a 0% here, but if Funky can get a pity point, so does Tiny. Her problems are obvious: aside from being lower on the totem pole than Dixie, K. Rool, and now even Cranky, she's also pretty redundant to one of the frontrunners in Dixie. Heck, her redundancy is so obvious that she was redesigned post-DK64 to be taller and more like a teenager. Her one bright spot is that, unlike Funky, she has a history of being playable in the games she appears in, including most importantly in the very successful Donky Kong 64. Extremely unlikely to become playable in Smash at this point as her popularity has been eclipsed by Dixie's, but not entirely impossible either. Great alternate costume material if Dixie enters the fray.
Want - 75% - My favorite of the DK64 Kongs, I'd easily be excited thanks to all the nostalgia she brings. Would be generally confusing how she got in and Dixie presumably didn't, though.

Spear User - 40%
So, as far as we know, our potential spear users are Bandana Dee, Chrom, and Lucina (I'm ignoring Ganon because trident). Bandana Dee would obviously be a spear user, and he's somewhere in the neighborhood of 20% chance (yes, I rated him 10% most recently, but that was in large part because he was receiving some absurd overratings that day). Chrom and Lucina are both plausible spear wielders (if somewhat unlikely), and I rate the pair as 80% total chance, so I'll take a fourth of that and call it an additional 20%. 20+20=40, thus my rating, barring some left-field spear user we've forgotten about.
Want - 50% - Meh? I'm more interested in actual characters, not specific weapons.

Young Link - 0.75%
Poor guy.

Nominations
Master Hand x5

 

[RankoChan]

Tiny Kong -
Chance: 0%
Want: 0%
She's an extremely minor DK character who's had design conflicts after Nintendo forced Rare to redesign her for DKRDS. King K. Rool, Dixie, Cranky, Funky, etc. are going to become playable before she ever does. Unlike Funky, she wouldn't really even make a good AT IMO.

A spear weapon user -
Chance: 10%
Want: 0%
It's possible if the new Fire Emblem rep has the ability to switch out weapons but I don't see it being too likely. I don't think a playable Waddle Dee from the Kirby franchise is very likely either. I'm not interested in spears since they're a pretty boring weapon in general IMO, I'd prefer more exciting and unconventional weapon choices for Smash.

 

[Aqua Rock X]

TINY KONG

Chance: .5% - Even worse than Funky and Cranky.

Want: 25% - She'd be adorable but Dixie fills that along with a feasible playstyle.

SPEAR USER

Chance: 50% - Possible.

Want: 50% - Indifferent.

Young Link Prediction: .31% - The weakest Link.

Nominations:
Leon x5

 

[Erimir]

Tiny Kong

Dixie knock-off instead of Dixie? I doubt it.

Tiny Kong chances: 0.1%

Tiny Kong want: 0%

Spear user

Bandana Dee + chance of Chrom or Lucina being in and using a spear + chance of Hector...

Chance: 25%
Want: 40%
In theory an interesting spear-user could be fun. Bandana Dee does not really fit that (if he's interesting, it probably won't be because of the fact that he uses a spear rather than a sword) because he's too small for his spear to be that different. It'd have a sweet spot at the end and be a little bit more stabby... but that's not that different. Unless they made his spear really, really long compared to his body (i.e. not consistent with the artwork I've seen). A character like Hector, on the other hand, could use it in more different ways and really take advantage of the range afforded by a spear. They could even make it possible for him to miss people who are too close to him if they don't get hit by the blade.

Young Link prediction: 0.1%

Nominations:
5x Zelda newcomer