Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[colder_than_ice]

Ryu
Chance: 0% - No explaination necessary. Sakurai was nice enough to give one for me.
Want: 0% - This may sound completely unheard of, but I've never even played Street Fighter. I'm not a big fan of fighting games. (suddenly remembers that he's on an Internet forum dedicated to a fighting game.) I mean with some exceptions of course.

Seriously though, SSB is the only series of games in the fighting genre that I personally enjoy. Most other fighting games tend to rely on long button sequences that to me feel like a chore to master. SSB offers simple gameplay mechanics with lots of diverse options, while still being surprisingly complex.

Shulk
Chance: 73% - He has unique moveset potential and is highly requested in Japan. Surely Sakurai has acknowledged Project Rainfalls role in bringing Xenoblade overseas, and what that means for Shulk's popularity here.
Want: 89% - Who wouldn't love to see Shulk in Smash?

Magnus: 0.88%

Nominations: Gyromite stage x5

 

[Toxicroaker]

Shulk
Likelihood: N/A
I'm going to opt out of this one because I'm not familiar with the Xenoblade series. Shulk does have many factors that make him look like a likely choice for smash, however, I feel Smashboards tends to have a bias that favors him. Personally, I don't think he's likely since I never heard of him prior to joining Smashboards and he's a sword character, but if I were to present these arguments as to why he's unlikely then I'll appear to be narrow minded on this thread.

Iam in the exact same situation as you. I did study up on the series, so I am familiar with it. I have to agree on everything else though (I didn't know about him til smashboards). I also think it's cool that you joined 11 days after me lol.

 

[FalKoopa]

Ryu:
Likelihood: 0%
Sakurai has already ruled out characters from fighting games. So, no, he's not getting in anytime soon.

Want: 0%
I've never been into the fighting game genre, except for Smash Bros, so I don't want him at all.

Shulk:
Likelihood: 45%
I'll quote my post from last time.

Shulk:
Likelihood: 50%
It can go either way at this point. X seems unrelated to Xenoblade, making Shulk a one shot character. While one-shot characters have gotten in before, they have always been retros or from series with changing casts.

Want: 35%
Can't say that I'm really interested. Never played his game, I'm indifferent towards him.

Nothing has changed since then, so I'll keep my rating (almost) the same.

Want: 65%
Here is where things get funny. Out of curiosity, I decided to try out Xenoblade yesterday *cough*using an emulator*cough*, so I'll go by my first impressions. The game is definitely a great game, and I can fully understand why people think he's a deserving candidate for inclusion in Smash. The music and the sense of exploration the game gives you are top notch. That said, I found the control scheme a bit weird, and initially had no idea what I was doing. I only played the game a little (Shulk just reached Lv. 2), as I was busy.

Now that I've actually played the game, I find the Isaac vs. Shulk rivalry to be one of the stupidest things I've seen on Smashboards. The games are about as similar as Metal Gear and Mario. Why the heck do people compare the two?

Magnus: 0.7%
When I first joined Smashboards, I remember seeing videos on Youtube claiming Zoroark and Magnus as shoo-ins. Let's see how much have we changed.

6 mario characters x 5

 

[LoneKonWolf]

Why the heck do people compare the two?

sorry, I literally couldn't resist

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Ryu - 0%

Sakurai has stated Fighting games characters will not be in Smash. Thus, Ryu is ineligible.

There is already a third party character from Capcom in Smash 4 as well, Mega Man.

Want - 50%

Indifferent to his (impossible) inclusion.

Shulk - 68%

I'll just take the word of what others rating him fairly high say, as I haven't played Xenoblade and thus I don't know much about it.

Want - 60%

From what I do know, Shulk could make for an interesting fighter.

Magnus Prediction - 0.11%


x5 Grovyle.

Uh, we haven't rated him yet, have we?

 

[SmashShadow]

Ryu
0% chance & want

Shulk
25% chance
He's one off character at this point and from a game with average sales. i just don't see it happening.
Want: 30% It's not that I have anything against him but there are so many more important characters. Maybe if he got a game or two more under his belt this would rise but until then I couldn't care less about him getting in.

Magnus: 2.6%

 

[YoshiandToad]

Ryu:
Chance: 2%

Yeah that's right. Not a solid 0%. I'm giving this some actual thought.

Frankly I'm surprised Ryu wasn't the Capcom rep, seeing how the company usually treats Megaman like utter dog**** whilst peddling Street Fighter after Street Fighter game. At times Ryu has been seen as the companies mascot(usually again; due to the crap treatment of their blue bomber) and is THE most famous fighting game video character of all time from the most famous fighting game series of all time.
One could argue he's the most LEGENDARY fighting game character on the planet. One could also argue against that, but one would be wrong.

Sakurai himself is a fan of Street Fighter, having come out tops in a 100 person battle in the arcade version of Street Fighter II, so there's another point in Ryu's favour.

That said, he's also stated no fighting game characters will be implemented in Smash, and as King of putting his foot up another's backside, Ryu is the prime example of said fighting game character.

So that should disqualify him completely right? Technically, but let's not forget this is Sakurai. Word of god, isn't word of god if said god changes his mind on things.
He stated Villager was too peaceful to be in Smash. Now he's wielding an axe and smashing it up in SSB4. He stated there'd be no clones in Brawl and then BAM! We got Toon Link. We STILL have Toon Link, and he's as cloney as ever.

I'm giving this a 2%, as it's still highly unlikely considering the "No Fighting Game characters" thing, and Capcom already has a representative, but Sakurai IS a fan of Street Fighter. You don't win a tournament like that without practicing.

Want: 5%
That said, I don't really care much for Ryu or Street Figther in particular, but he's another video game character one could consider a legendary 3rd Party. Known the world over, instantly recognisable, the face of the most famous fighting game series ever. Outside of Smash I mean.

Shulk
Chance: 50%
I can see it happening. Equally I can see it not happening. Not terribly descriptive, but I'm not familiar with him.

Want: 40%
Indifferent. Never played Xenoblade. Hell, although I had heard about Project Rainfall I apparently somehow missed it's UK release, and I don't know of anyone personally whose actually played it. As it's a JRPG, probably my least favourite game genre, I can't say I'm personally that bothered about playing it either.

Shulk probably deserves the love he gets, and the fans getting it released for American shores is an impressive feat, but I'm just personally not invested in his inclusion.

Which to be fair means he'll probably get in judging by the rest of the SSB4 Newcomers. I don't think I've been as indifferent to a cast of newcomers in any game as much as I have with Smash 4; Megaman, Rosalina, Wii Fit Trainer, Villager and now possibly Palutena. At least give me a newcomer to hate Sakurai so I can focus some emotional response on that.

Magnus: 0.5%
The Palutena leak and Viridi deconfirmation points to him being an Assist Trophy at best. If Medusa doesn't take that first.

Nominations:
Toad X 5

I'm ready. Ish.

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Ryu: 0%
Ineligable.

Want: 0%
I don't even like his games all that much.


Shulk:
Our elite four are Ridley, K.Rool, Palutena, Little Mac [honorable mention Isaac] (Champion Mewtwo)
Japan's equivelant 3, as my experience goes, is Shulk, Palutena, K.Rool (With Roy and Mewtwo both heading up).

Other than the cut duo Shulk is the most requested newcomer in Japan, and while I think a surprise like Slime could out-do him in hype, he's their Ridley, even down to the arguments (though, too new is their too big).

Chance: 88%
This game's newcomers so far are popular picks (Megaman, Villager, Palutena?), popular character (Rosalina) or things that will become popular after the shock factor (Wii Fit Trainer). It shows us that popularity is really important, and being the most popular newcomer option in Japan is enough cred alone under such a fact, and even in the west his popularity is pretty high, though often dropped because of his perceived competition with 8h Gym Leader (or maybe Rival Battle?) Isaac... Then there's his representing a major new development company, and getting a fourth (fifth/sixth dependent on Isaac and Square Enix) RPG into Smash, which in itself would help add variety and bring in a different audience. Honestly there's so much reason for him to be in it's not even funny... but there's one reason against him.

He's only had one game. Yeah, it looks kinda bad, but it's a very big, long game with a hell of a lot of content, I argue he doesn't need a second due to sheer scale, but it certainly hurts his chance a chunk.

EDIT: I have been reliably informed he is first party and adjusted my chance 2% accordingly... it really wasn't much of an issue anyway.

Want: 60%
A little hyped, but only a little. I didn't think Xenoblade was that fantastic in all honesty, but it was a good game, and it was a good showing that Nintendo can do RPGs, in fact the rainfall games are all comparable to some of the best PS3 JRPGS, if not quite making it. Ultimately the biggest hype would be the music (which again I don't think is as good as the best of the PS3 games (or Ar Tonelico 3, but that game sucked), but is still pretty fantastic) which doesn't bode too well for the character. Japan would be ecstatic though, and I'd be happy for them.



Magnus: 3.4%
He's AT material, but that atleast means he's considered; I think I may be underestimating the Pautena leak/fakes power, but hey.


Pokémon AT*5

 

[Groose]

Can I request that if we are rerating Palutena due to the leaked images, can we wait like a week before doing so? The hype is still strong, and I don't expect a lot of rationality.

We have to wait until she gets a ton of nominations, first. That should hold her off for... About a week or so.

And I'm going to remind you when that day comes: even if you believe the leak, as long as you think there's a chance of it being fake, don't give her 100%.

But we'll save that talk for her (inevitable) day.

 

[Aqua Rock X]

RYU

Chance: 0% - "No fighting Game characters" + Capcom character = Nope.

Want: 0% - I like Ryu, he could use a pair of shoes, but I like the character. He was pretty cool in Project X Zone and in many other games. I just don't think he is needed here.

THE INCREDIBLE SHULK

Chance: 90% - I know that is incredibly high especially considering I haven't played Xenoblade. Heck, I hadn't even heard of him since I started lurking these boards again back in March of last year. But something about Shulk just strikes me as extremely likely. As in, I've got this innate feeling he'll be in the roster.

Want: 70% - He looks like an interesting character and I look forward to seeing what he can do if he is there.

Magnus Prediction: 4.23% - Another blind guess. I should really consider cleaning my glasses...

Nominations:
Tetris Stage x5

 

[Deleted member]

He's second party. A common issue, but not one that gets in his way too badly, especially as they're making a second game right now.

Actually, Shulk is first party as Monolith Soft is a first party company to Nintendo. So, I don't think that he has these issues of getting in Smash. I think Sakurai would still have to ask Monolith Soft for permission to use Shulk and other Xenoblade content, but it shouldn't be too hard.

EDIT: Looks like we can get rid of Viridi's nominations… all 3 of them.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Ryu Chance: 0.1%
Ryu Want: 20%
Shulk Chance: 55% I think he actually has a good chance, due to the success of Operation Rainfall and Xenoblade being a fantastic game so far (I'm not done with the game, I'm busy with Super Mario 3D World), he has at least enough uniqueness (Though not enough) for him to get in.
Shulk Want: 100% Xenoblade is amazing, before I was against Shulk for some time because I thought that a new IP would never make it in the game and that he would take only pre-Brawl days as a source for characters. But when I played the game, it has completely changed my mind. This game so far is beyond my expectations, and has easily became my favorite RPGs of all time. I'm rooting for Shulk to make it, but I have my doubts of how Sakurai will deal with new characters.
Magnus prediction: 0.98%
Nominations:
x5 Harry.

 

[Golden Icarus]

Ryu
Chance 2%
Being slightly generous here by not giving him a zero percent.
Want 10%
I'm more of a fan of Ken actually.

Shulk
Chance 45%
Take a good look at BigAxle and Brawler610's amazing posts about the chances of Shulk, and add just a bit more skepticism.
Want 90%
Surprised to see it this high from an Isaac fan like me? Well let me tell a bit of a story about my relationship with Golden Sun and Xenoblade.

As a kid, I didn't really grow up with handhelds or RPGs. Heck, I didn't even play Pokemon until only 3 years ago. Instead, I grew up with home consoles, specifically the SNES, N64, Gamecube, Atari, and Xbox. But I didn't own my first handheld until I was about 10 years old, when I got a Gameboy Advance for Christmas with two games: Golden Sun and Kirby The Amazing Mirror. Needless to say, I played the heck out of these games, especially Golden Sun. It was my first RPG and my first handheld game, which makes it a very special game to me. In fact, it was my favorite JRPG or about 9 years (probably just nostalgia blind). I bought Golden Sun: TLA a few months later and it quickly became one of my favorite series of all time. To the point where both Isaac and Felix were my two most wanted characters for Brawl, and I was very dissapointed when neither of them made it in the game.

But why is this relevant? Well it's not really, but it does kinda tie in to my want for Shulk.

Last year I finally played Xenoblade. I played the crap out of this game! It was absolutely incredible, and quickly became my favorite RPG of all time, surpassing Golden Sun. However I still want Isaac more. If it weren't for the fact that Golden Sun exists, Shulk would get an easy 100% want, but since it does exist I still want Isaac more. Both for nostalgia and moveset potential. Even though I still enjoyed Xenoblade more than Golden Sun, I still want Isaac in more because it fills the void of a character that I've wanted since pre-Brawl days. Something that Shulk could not do. So, do I want Shulk more then Isaac? No. Would I be happy if Shulk got in, but Isaac didn't? Yes. Would both of them being included make me the happiest person on Earth? Yes. Should Isaac make me want Shulk any less? Absolutely not.

In the end, Isaac being included is a top priority for me. However, Shulk's Inclusion would still be good alternative, and I would not be upset in the slightest if Shulk was added instead of Isaac.

Magnus prediction 6.3% Blah blah Palutena

Nominations
Jimmy T. x5

 

[Spears In Smash Bros.]

Can I request that if we are rerating Palutena due to the leaked images, can we wait like a week before doing so? The hype is still strong, and I don't expect a lot of rationality.

Says the guy who changed their avatar to an image of her.

Ryu: 1.7%
Sure, it's unlikely, but Street Fighter is one of the only franchises Capcom is really putting any effort into these days.

Want: 9%
Meh

Shulk: Don't feel like rating on him right now.

Magnus prediction: 1.98%

Nominate:
No Namco character x5

 

[Xenigma]

So I can't help but notice that, at the moment, I am one of two ratings that place Shulk below a 40% chance. That's an incredible amount of faith in a character across the board! Unfortunately, I think the logic that's placing him that high is more than a little faulty, and since no one else seems to stepping up the plate, I'll throw in my two cents on why I think Shulk was overrated before and is only going to get more overrated now. I'll start with perhaps the most important of the arguments being used today (apologies for the essay!):

Claim - Isaac and Shulk don't compete with each other.
Counterclaim - They can't not compete with each other.

By day 136 of Rate Your Chances Returns, I think we all ought to understand that every character competes with every other character. Smash is a game with limited space, and inevitably hard choices have to be made about which characters and franchises won't make the cut. Sure, it would be ideal if every Nintendo franchise out there could add one or more characters, but with common wisdom placing the roster size at no more than 50 and many believing it will be even smaller, there's no where near enough space to make that happen. Instead, the decision has to be made as to which franchises are most worthy of more attention, which characters add the most unique gameplay, and how to please the most fanbases possible. The more any two characters or franchises overlap, the more they inevitably end up competing against each other for a coveted space on the roster.

Now I'm not going to say Golden Sun and Xenoblade Chronicles aren't very distinct franchises, or even that Isaac and Shulk aren't very distinct characters. It's not exactly difficult to list differences between a 2D, handheld turn-based JRPG and a 3D, console action JRPG, and there's a pretty big difference between the two characters in terms of specific abilities. And yet at the end of the day what we have are two JRPGs, which means both appeal to the very specific JRPG fanbase, and Isaac and Shulk are both blond swordsmen that wield some sort of magical abilities. While both are quite deserving on their own merits, such an overlap makes adding both at least somewhat redundant, and when you're trying to make as many people as possible happy with roster choices, chances are you're not about to add two characters that appeal to the same specific niche. There's a reason the comparison exists in the first place, and it would be foolish to say it's false just because the games are different.

Would it be better if both could be in? Yes, and I think having both franchises represented would be ideal. No doubt both Isaac and Shulk would bring a lot to the table and would make a lot of hardcore Nintendo fans very happy. Can we honestly say they don't impede on each other's chances, regardless of how unfair the comparison may seem? No, I don't think we can.

Claim - Project Rainfall proves the game has lots of popularity.
Counterclaim - Project Rainfall only proves that Nintendo fans don't like it when Nintendo makes dumb choices.

Let's consider what Project Rainfall was: a fan petition that went viral because of how ridiculous the central premise was. Why in the world would Nintendo invest in a trio of high quality JRPGs, translate them for release in Europe and Australia, and then not bother releasing them in North America? This was a world where Nintendo was swimming in money after everyone bought a Wii, yet they seemed to be releasing few games for the "core" audience, and here was a particularly blatant example of them not giving fans what they wanted despite years of complaints. This was a great chance to call out Nintendo for seemingly ignoring their fans, and naturally tons of people jumped on board, regardless of how much they may have actually wanted those specific games.

Did it ultimately succeed? Yes, but only to a degree. Nintendo finally saw common sense and released the games in North America, but they still only bothered with limited print runs to minimize risk, and only one of the games proved to have any lasting impact thanks to being particularly good. It's difficult to judge how much success Xenoblade Chronicles actually had as a result, though judging by North America's limited run accounting for roughly half of less than a million in sales worldwide (assuming this page is accurate), it still wasn't exactly a smash-hit. That Xenoblade didn't see another print run after selling out further seems to suggest that either Nintendo doesn't believe there wasn't actually enough demand to support one or that they made some sort of agreement that precludes a second run. Either way, that's not a lot of faith in the games even after Rainfall's supposed success.

Supporters like to portray Project Rainfall as a movement that forced Nintendo to release the games despite originally saying they wouldn't. All it really turned out to be was showing Nintendo they were silly to not do so in the first place, and at the end of the day they still only took a minimal-risk strategy in their release, one that makes it impossible to tell if Xenoblade Chronicles's fanbase is anything more than a vocal minority. Also, if Reggie is to be believed, the campaign didn't actually affect their decision anyway.

Claim - Monolith being acquired by Nintendo proves Xenoblade Chronicles was a big success.
Counterclaim - Nintendo already mostly owned Monolith; the move was finishing what they had started.

I'm no expert on the history of Monolith Soft, but apparently Nintendo acquired 80% of Monolith's shares from Namco back in 2007. That's before Xenoblade Chronicles was even announced, never mind Project Rainfall. That meant Nintendo was already plenty interested in the studio, so it's no surprise that they decided to fully acquire the studio when given the opportunity. For all we know it would have happened independent of whether Xenoblade was a fan favorite or not, and as a result, I don't think it's a strong line of reasoning for Shulk's potential inclusion in Smash. Nice for Monolith at the very least!

Claim - Nintendo will want to include Shulk to promote X.
Counterclaim - There's no way to be sure Nintendo would actually do this.

I can understand this logic. Smash is a great promotional tool: Pit's inclusion in particular no doubt helped spur interest in his revival after Brawl, and Marth and Roy in Smash paved the way for Fire Emblem releasing internationally. The problem here is that most characters that have been (or soon will be) in Smash are there due to past successes, not necessarily to promote future games, and, as mentioned earlier in this post, Xenoblade Chronicles didn't really do that well. It's the kind of logic that helps if Sakurai and company already want to include Shulk, but is unlikely to push him over the edge if he wasn't already there, so X being a game that will happen eventually and that may or may not use Shulk shouldn't boost his chances by much, if at all.

Claim - Sakurai recognizing a replica of the Monado on his Twitter helps Shulk's chances.
Counterclaim - Sakurai was simply posting a photo of a really cool replica of a Nintendo property, and due to his work on Smash, he's already familiar with most things Nintendo anyway.

Considering the amount of Nintendo history covered by characters, assist trophies, items, normal trophies, and stickers, it seems Sakurai is already well aware of a pretty ridiculous amount of Nintendo properties. In this case, he posted a picture of an awesome sword replica because, hey, that thing is awesome regardless of what you think of Xenoblade Chronicles or Shulk. It doesn't really prove anything except that he thought the sword was cool and wanted to share it. Doesn't mean he recognizes Xenoblade any more or less than he already did, or that he values the franchise any more highly in terms of Smash. Seems like people are reading a little too much into a random Twitter post to me.

---

All in all, I just don't think Shulk has that compelling a case for Smash, at least not compared to his primary competition of Isaac. Could he make it in? No doubt, especially if Sakurai truly is a fan. Do we have enough proof to place him as likely for inclusion in SSB4? I don't think we do, at least not yet.

 

[No Control]

Ryu chance: 0.1%. Another Capcom character AND from a fighting game? Nope.
Ryu want: 50%. Could be cool I guess.

Shulk chance: 30%. He's a one shot character in a hardcore game which most casuals haven't heard of. He has some appeal and is popular in the Smash fanbase but I doubt that'll be enough. We'll see though.
Shulk want: 50%. He could bring something interesting to the table I suppose, but I wouldn't bat an eyelid if he didn't make it.

Magnus prediction: 2.5%.

Nominations:
Palutena x 3
Three FE characters x2

 

[Rouge]

So what if Isaac and Shulk compete with each other? Shulk still have the edge over him completely so you're the one who would gain from arguing that they are not in direct competition.

I would answer your post but it's quite obvious that you are merely grasping at straws and refusing to see the bigger picture which points out to Shulk as a very likely candidate for this game.

 

[Xenigma]

Isaac has had more games, better sales, more history with Nintendo, an assist trophy in Brawl, plus tons of support prior to Brawl and a fair bit even now. Shulk has recency and maybe popularity. That not "the edge over him completely" by any stretch; quite the opposite in fact.

EDIT - As an aside, I don't expect to change anyone's mind on the matter, nor do I truly mind seeing Shulk rated highly. It is just a forum game after all, and he's a cool character worthy of the support. Just a bit boring to see such a one-sided round when it seemed like one that could garner some interesting debate in line with other recent rerates, and as someone with a strong opinion on the matter, I don't mind throwing my hat into the ring.

 

[DarkKry4]

Ryu

Chance - 0% No way José... We already have a capcom player in the game. i doubt they would add another.

Want - 0% i don't like street fighter

Shulk

Chance - 10%

Want - 0%

Magnus - 1%.

Tiny Kong x5

 

[Toxicroaker]

Hey guys! I know it's still 14 days away, but I am planing something special for day 150! I won't tell anyone what it is (unless Groose threatens to take the music section away from me) but I will tell you that it doesn't have anything to do with music. let the guessing begin!

 

[Knight Dude]

Ryu

Chances: 0%: Given what Sakurai had said before, I'm inclined to say that no fighting game character will ever make it into Smash. At least not one that isn't from Nintendo.

Want: 55%: I like Ryu, and I can see him as a good fit with the series along with Mega Man. But I wouldn't pick him as the next Capcom character in Smash. I feel like Phoenix Wright or Arthur would better suited for that role. He gets an extra 10% for being voiced by Kyle Herbert. His presence tends to make things better than before.

Shulk

Chances 70%: He's a bit new. But his game was quite successful and he's also a popular character. So Shulk should be on the radar at the very least. Though it is possible that he would be saved for the next game in the Smash series. Shulk seems like he has enough to offer to make an interesting character, regardless of him being a swordsman.

Want: 70%: As I stated earlier, I feel that Shulk would be fairly interesting to play as. And I feel that his series should be represented in some fashion. However, the only reason I did not put him up higher is that I'm not extremely familiar with his game, so I can't really say what would be so great about him in detail, just that he seems like he has potential.

Magnus: 3.5%

Nominations: Zoroark x1, Dark Samus x2, Bowser Jr. x2

 

[colder_than_ice]

Hey guys! I know it's still 14 days away, but I am planing something special for day 150! I won't tell anyone what it is (unless Groose threatens to take the music section away from me) but I will tell you that it doesn't have anything to do with music. let the guessing begin!

You're going to reveal that you actually work for Nintendo, and your going to leak the entire roster for us?

No? Well can't blame a guy for trying.

 

[FalKoopa]

Hey guys! I know it's still 14 days away, but I am planing something special for day 150! I won't tell anyone what it is (unless Groose threatens to take the music section away from me) but I will tell you that it doesn't have anything to do with music. let the guessing begin!

You will replace Groose as the new host?

 

[Toxicroaker]

You're going to reveal that you actually work for Nintendo, and your going to leak the entire roster for us?

No? Well can't blame a guy for trying.

You will replace Groose as the new host?

No...
FalKoopa how did you know!!! jk. No.

 

[Pacack]

Ryu:

Chance: .2%
Not an absolute zero, but he's not in a great spot.

Want: 0%
I do not care.

The highly overrated Shulk:

Chance: 10%
He's possible, but...are you kidding me? I can't believe people are rating him at any higher than a 50% chance. He's a character that might be a one-shot, the casual Nintendo fan has never heard of him, and, if we're getting less newcomers this time around, as Sakurai has stated, other characters are simply more important.

Want: 15%
He's okay, but he's not amazing.

Magnus Prediction: 2.2%
I honestly don't think any KI character besides Palutena has a good shot.

Noms: Diskun x5

 

[Louie G.]

The extra noms today go to Louie G. Actually, he is one of the few people ever to hit it right on the dot. Enjoy TEN extra nominations!

YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSS.
It seems like the characters I go out of my way to nominate are the ones I predict the best. Muddy, now Mona. Maybe Palutena is next, I dunno.

RYU:

Chance: 0%
If Sakurai said that there will be no fighting game characters in Smash, then THERE WILL BE NO FIGHTING GAME CHARACTERS IN SMASH.
As simple as that. Having Mega Man as a Capcom rep doesn't help either. So I'd say Ryu's chances are as good as dead.

Want: 75%
Ryu is certainly a legendary 3rd Party with strong ties to Nintendo, and a traditional fighting game character could be neat. That being said I could just play Street Fighter 2 if I want a taste of Ryu in a fighting game, since he originated from a fighting game. The appeal of Smash is duking it out with characters that normally do not appear in fighting games or interact with one another.

SHULK:

Chance: 70%
I'm rating Shulk as high as I rate K. Rool (at least currently, I forget what I gave him), which is great considering I find K. Rool to be on the likelier side when it comes to newcomers. Shulk's got a lot going for him. He's popular (especially in JP), Sakurai acknowledges Xenoblade and even seems to like it a lot, and Xenoblade is a notable new Nintendo IP. Not to mention a huge hulking sword playstyle is something we have no seen yet (I imagine Shulk acting similarly to Magnus in Kid Icarus Uprising, ironically), and obviously uniqueness is a factor that certainly helps a character's inclusion in Smash 4. Lastly, X is very obviously a Xenoblade sequel, so Xenoblade isn't going to be a one time thing, it's becoming a series. Honestly I find it hard to determine what Shulk has going AGAINST him.

Want: 100%
Shulk could be really neat. I got Xenoblade for Christmas, and haven't played it too much yet (working on other games first), but its Chrono Trigger-like gameplay is intriguing. I'm hoping he gets an American voice actor though. I like British accents, but not too much in video games.

Magnus Prediction: 1.25%
He's still a possibility, but for many (including myself) it's Palutena or bust when it comes to KI newcomers.

Noms: Palutena x15
Let's get there quick, so she isn't confirmed before we rate! If these 15 noms go to waste I'll be angry...

 

[McDuckletts]

I WANT SOME POOUND CAKE!!
Chance: 0.1%
He's a legendary character, yes, but Sakurai has stated that he's against putting fighting game characters in Smash. Plus we already have Megaman as our Capcom character, so Ryu's chances are pretty abysmal.
Want: 0%
If I wanted to play as Ryu in a fighting game, I can just play Street Fighter.
Or Marvel VS. Capcom.
Or Tatsunoko VS. Capcom.

Shulk
Chance: Abstain
I've never played Xenoblade and know little to nothing about his character. Maybe some day I'll play Xenoblade.
Maybe some day...
Want: 70%
mite b cool

Magnus prediction: 1.27%

Nom: PT Pokemon (no trainer) X5

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

RYU: Double 0s. I like Zeros. And I like @Zero2570
Shulk: 65%
Want: 100%
Magnus: 1.5%
Yarne Owain x 5

And yeah, seems silly to rerate Palutena around this time. A ton of people are just going to give 100%s because of the hype. Let this die down, then we can make a more accurate assumption

 

[Glaciacott]

Eeh, low on time, will try to do this justice

Ryu
Chances 0%
Want 0%
... why are we doing this guy?

Shulk
Chances 75%

This is one of the characters I'm pretty darn certain about. The evidence for why is staggering and has been covered by others. And really, considering X and how Nintendo is jumping at the chance of supporing Monolith and how it's sooo high in the demand that people bought it for $70 or more ... I can't imagine a universe in which Nintendo/Sakurai won't look at Xenoblade and think "yea, we need this franchise in Smash. NOW."

Want 100%
Xenoblade, welcome to the happy-go-lucky world of Nintendo! Just try not to trip on the passed out Star Fox on your way in, and you'll be fine!

Predictions
Magnus - 3.6%
I love this character's history. You know, how everyone at some point was all "oh, this one is SO IN!" and a couple of years later it's surprising to even hear of him.

Nominations
stages, bring it on. Don't click on the link unless you're ready to JAZZ
x5 Bowser Land

 

[LoneKonWolf]

Xenoblade, welcome to the happy-go-lucky world of Nintendo! Just try not to trip on the passed out Star Fox on your way in, and you'll be fine!

why must my favorite franchise be dead. . . why nintendo. . .why?!?

 

[Gunla]

why must my favorite franchise be dead. . . why nintendo. . .why?!?

This is why.
Franchise Reboot? Yes please.

 

[Deleted member]

Xenoblade, welcome to the happy-go-lucky world of Nintendo! Just try not to trip on the passed out Star Fox on your way in, and you'll be fine!

I really hope that the Xenoblade franchise doesn't get abandoned… but I feel as though that Nintendo will eventually leave it in the dust.

why must my favorite franchise be dead. . . why nintendo. . .why?!?

I feel your pain. The franchise deserves a freaking comeback on the Wii U, along with F-Zero. In fact, I think A LOT of Nintendo's franchises should get a revival.

This is why.
Franchise Reboot? Yes please.

Horrid fanfiction.

 

[Gunla]

I really hope that the Xenoblade franchise doesn't get abandoned… but I feel as though that Nintendo will eventually leave it in the dust.

The fact that we are getting a game that is likely a sequel with it's system and many other elements seems to currently point otherwise.

 

[Deleted member]

The fact that we are getting a game that is likely a sequel with it's system and many other elements seems to currently point otherwise.

I just hope that after X, the franchise will still have a future. I see tremendous potential in the Xenoblade franchise and I want it to expand in future installments.

 

[LoneKonWolf]

This is why.
Franchise Reboot? Yes please.

somebody burn it with fire and never speak of that horrid game for as long as the internet lives,
star fox needs a reboot

I feel your pain. The franchise deserves a freaking comeback on the Wii U, along with F-Zero. In fact, I think A LOT of Nintendo's franchises should get a revival.

ya I hope they all do to. . .
its just I miss starfox the most. . .

Spoiler

this conversation is making me very sad. . .

 

[Groose]

Now that I've actually played the game, I find the Isaac vs. Shulk rivalry to be one of the stupidest things I've seen on Smashboards. The games are about as similar as Metal Gear and Mario. Why the heck do people compare the two?

Oh, I don't compare their series or anything like that. I just see both of them on roughly the same level--not as popular as the Elite Four (Little Mac, Palutena, Ridley, K. Rool), nor as likely as the Accursed Ones (Mii, Pac-Man, Chrom), but more popular and likely than those on the outskirts of contention (Saki, Goroh, Starfy, Chibi Robo, Dillon, etc). The fact that they're both magic wielding sword users, in addition to having similar amounts of support and likelihood, puts them in a bit of contention. It's not the series that do so.

a better chance than a freaking Owain and Yarne tag team. I thought we were past joke nominations?

We've gotten to the point where they don't really make much of a difference--the other newcomers we're rating are scoring below the twenties in want and low single digits in chance. I guarantee we also have something else to rate alongside them now, too, so they're not the complete waste that they used to be. Still, I keep an eye to make sure that there aren't too many of them going, like there was at the one point where I suspended them.

EDIT: Looks like we can get rid of RESET Viridi's nominations… all 3 of them.

Ashamed of you, I am. Missed simple pun, you did! Fixed it for you, I have!

Which to be fair means he'll probably get in judging by the rest of the SSB4 Newcomers. I don't think I've been as indifferent to a cast of newcomers in any game as much as I have with Smash 4; Megaman, Rosalina, Wii Fit Trainer, Villager and now possibly Palutena. At least give me a newcomer to hate Sakurai so I can focus some emotional response on that.

Really? I'm actually pretty pleased with the characters so far. Mega Man and Villager were dreams; Rosalina wasn't someone I really wanted to see, but she fits nicely and I would embrace her completely if not for my Toad woes. If the leak is real, then Palutena will be awesome if her moveset is cool. Now just get rid of that... evil health nut... and I'd be absolutely thrilled so far.

This is why.
Franchise Reboot? Yes please.

Call me crazy, but I say we just ditch the Fox storyline altogether and just have a game with the original Team Star Fox--Peppy, James and Pigma. Set it in some new solar system to open the door for all new planets and start fresh. This would be awesome because we'd say bye-bye to Slippy, get Peppy back, and get to watch Pigma get blown up every mission.

Hey guys! I know it's still 14 days away, but I am planing something special for day 150! I won't tell anyone what it is (unless Groose threatens to take the music section away from me) but I will tell you that it doesn't have anything to do with music.
let the guessing begin!

Toxicroaker, I hereby relieve you of your music section duties. Hades will be taking over from now on. I kid. I'll be sending you a PM soon, though.

 

[LoneKonWolf]

Call me crazy, but I say we just ditch the Fox storyline altogether and just have a game with the original Team Star Fox--Peppy, James and Pigma. Set it in some new solar system to open the door for all new planets and start fresh. This would be awesome because we'd say bye-bye to Slippy, get Peppy back, and get to watch Pigma get blown up every mission.

groose. . .I like your way of thinking mate, too bad that pigma would just be an exact slippy clone and yes i'm serious
oh well at least it'll be more entertaining watching him blow up than watching slippy blow up

 

[KingofPhantoms]

This is why.
Franchise Reboot? Yes please.

Slippy had a love interest?

Unfortunately I have yet play a StarFox game. I probably won't be trying this particular one though..

 

[LoneKonWolf]

Slippy had a love interest?

Unfortunately I have yet play a StarFox game. I probably won't be trying this particular one though..

never, for the history of your life, play starfox command,
that game is the starfox version of wand of gamlon is to Zelda, or other M (to some people) is to Metroid

 

[Groose]

Uh, we haven't rated him yet, have we?

Nein, wir haben das nicht gemacht. No, we haven't done that.

groose. . .I like your way of thinking mate, too bad that pigma would just be an exact slippy clone and yes i'm serious
oh well at least it'll be more entertaining watching him blow up than watching slippy blow up

He's going to scream REEAAAL good before he DIES.

I'm sorry, but the Pigma quote I just based that on is the most frightening thing I have ever heard. And that game was rated E or something right?

Ryu: 0%
Had we rated him before Sakurai's quote? I'd toss him a solid 7.5% or even a 10% because he's one of the most famous characters out there. Now? I trust the Word of God... even if he changes his mind every now and again.

Ryu Want: 0%
I've never been able to get into Street Fighter. Just not my cup of tea. Anyway, he's not even the character I'd want most from the series, anyway.

Shulk: 40%
Hmm. So on one hand, Shulk has massive popularity. Xenoblade was pretty darned popular in Japan, and in the Americas it got a lot of coverage with the whole Operation Rainfall incident. Hmm. In addition, X is/was being talked up as one of the Wii U's big name games. It's clear that this series has an immediate future, unlike a couple of franchises out there. Hmm. All in all, I'd say he's one of the most likely newcomers out there; because of his more international popularity and more evident future, I'll give him a slight edge over rival Isaac. I expect (75%) one of the two to be in; I just don't know which. He's actually a character that somehow makes his way onto nearly every prediction roster I make, oddly.

Shulk Want: 90%
Never could play his game because of the danged $80+ price tag. Still, it's one of the few games I ever watched an LP of (didn't finish it, but got a few hours in), and what I saw looked good. Shulk could be interesting with a mixture of Arts, prediction, and Monado. I'm a little lower on him than I used to be, but I'd still be thrilled by him.

JIMMY T. x5

Magnus: 3.02%
Poor Magnus. His day right after the Palutena leak. Oh well.

DAY OVER

RETURN OF GROOSE​