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Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

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Hippopotasauce

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Bleck likelihood: 0%
Want: 10%

Krystal likelihood: 20%
Want: 35%

Daitoryo: 1%

Wrestler x5
 

Aqua Rock X

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WOW! That's the most likes I've gotten in a single post - a record (for me) 9 likes. Thanks guys!

:pichumelee: "Pichu!" ^_^
:pikachumelee: "Pika, Pika..." -_-;

*AHEM* Back to business!

COUNT BLECK

Chance: 0% - He is a one time villian from the Paper Mario games. He won't get in over the main character of the series and to be honest, I have my doubts about Paper Mario himself. In short, the chances for Bleck look rather...bleak - yeah I went there. There's no reason to let you guys have all the pun! :awesome:

Want: 0% - I enjoyed Chuggaconroy's "Let's Play" videos of Super Paper Mario. But as far as having Bleck playable? To quote the man himself "nnnnnnnNO!"

KRYSTAL

Chance: 15% - She was a major player during the Brawl days, but in retrospect, that was more of a loud fanbase. I don't see her reaching Sakurai's attention.

Want: 35% - Ehh...we're fine with Fox, Falco, and Wolf.

Daitoryo Prediction: .3% - I'm thinking Cole/Omastar territory.

Nominations:
Muddy x5
 

Jubileus57

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Count Bleck Chances: 2% He'll never get in before Paper Mario. And even if we got Paper Mario his chances would still be tremendously low. Bleck.
Count Bleck Want: 4% Count Bleck<<<<<Paper mario. Even he is a cool tragic villain.

Krystal Chances: 6%
Krystal Want: 0% I really dislike every Star Fox character.

Daitoryo Prediction: 3.04%

Bayonettax5
 

Glaciacott

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Count BLECK!
Chance 0%
Pretty much the definition of impossible. I can't see him making it into the game in any universe or reality.

Want 0%
No thanks.

Krystal
Chance 7%
I used to like Krystal, but she has aged really poorly. Not only has her character failed to really grow outside of the whole Damsel of Fox role, but every game she has featured in has progressively led more and more to the terrible collapse of the Star Fox franchise. So much that the last iteration of the game is a remake of Star Fox 64, the last game of the series to be truly great and the last to not have her present. I'm not saying Krystal brought the franchise down, but she came along at the same exact time and that's sadly what the character will make people think of.
Second, the staff. Yes, it's a cool staff, but a lot of people seem to hold on to that like it's the best possible moveset ever and definitely needs to be in Smash. It's not that big of a deal ... it's a cool plus for most characters, but for Krystal it doesn't bring her from the depths.
Depths, by the way, in which she is now because of the biggest problem of all: Star Fox representation is pretty much capped. I do not see the series having more than three reps. Kirby and DK deserve four reps much more. This makes Krystal of such low priority. Not to mention that Fox, Falco and Wolf all represent the game much better.

Want 10%
If she made it, I suppose I'd get over it and use her now and then, but in principle I'm rather opposed to her joining. But hey, weirder things have happened :pichumelee:

Prediction
Daitoryo - um ... 3.4%? Eh, why not. I seriously have no clue.

Nominations
x5 Magnus
 

YoshiandToad

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Bleck
Chance: Bleeech. (0%)

Yeah, I'm ranking Bleck beneath the likes of Yarne, Tails and Cole even. Unlike those characters, Bleck's chances are reliant on having another character in first whose chances are likewise shot to pieces by a newcomer.

He's relatively unwanted compared to fellow Mario villains Bowser Jr, Waluigi and even King Boo, or Mario RPG characters Geno and of course, Paper Mario.

Paper Mario is likely not happening for SSB4. Bleck's definitely not happening, especially as a playable character.

Want: Bleeeeck (0%)
I didn't like Super Paper Mario. Maybe it's because Paper Mario The Thousand Year Door was one of the few games I considered damn near perfect, but the removal of Mario species partners, and the weird hybrid of platformer and RPG put me off the game in general. If we were to get anything Paper Mario related I'd want something from The Thousand Year Door...like a Glitz Pit Arena.
In fact screw it, that's all I want from Paper Mario. Or a Goombella assist Trophy.

Whilst I'm sure Bleck was a cool character I have no association with him.

Krystal
Chance: 50%

Krystal has quite a lot of support in the west, but is not particularly liked in Japan due to every Starfox after Starfox 64 being received in a less than stellar light. She suffers like Shadow the Hedgehog in that she is associated with a dark period of her franchise, since her inclusion marked the downfall of the series and thus also comes with her own set of haters.

Krystal does however have a unique edge to her(aka her staff), and is a prominent figure at least in the (loud) Starfox fanbase, and Sakurai seems to like the series since we've received a Starfox newcomer each new Smash game.

Want: 50%
I don't really mind if she gets included to be honest. She's a famous character, she has unique potential and at least we hopefully won't get a fourth LANDMASTA. It's an unpopular opinion but I'd rather have Krystal than Falco since she offers more. But Wolf before both, despite offering less uniqueness than Krystal (but more than Falco).
Frankly I don't give a stuff about the Starfox series(outside Fox and Wolf), but as a result I also am unaffected by Starfox's downfall and don't personally blame Krystal for ****ing up my favourite series.

Shadow on the other hand...

Prediction: Daitoryo...errr....5%? It's actually quite a cool idea, but I don't think people will particularly warm up to it at current.

Nominations: Robin X 5
 

Cheezey Bites

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Bleck:

Chance: 0.01%
He is the most prolific paper Mario villain... But that only helps him be a boss if there's a paper Mario section of adventure mode on the Wii U...

Want: 0%
I didn't like SPM...


Krystal:

Chance: 6%
A passable shot, but she's AT material really.

Want: 15%
Don't really like Carr, but don't want 4 spacies, or a cut.


Daitoryou: 2.3%
If hanafuda had a more obvious rep I think he'd do well, but a picture on a box does not a likely character make.

Pokémon AT*5
 

FalKoopa

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Count Bleck:
Likelihood: 0%
He depends on Paper Mario getting in. Paper Mario himself now looks very unlikely after Rosalina's reveal.

Want: 0%
Haven't played Super Paper Mario.

Krystal:
Likelihood: 15%
Frankly, the only problem she faces is that Star Fox series has enough characters at the moment. She is still quite popular to this day, and is likely to have a moveset that is visually more distinct than the rest of the SF crew.

Want: 20%
Ehh....was never a Star Fox fan to be honest. I've only played Star Fox 64 (which is a great game, though.) Though her fans asking for Falco and/or Wolf to be cut for her made me a bit negative to Krystal.

Daitoryo prediction: 2%
No idea how this will end up. :/

Now that Chrom had a free fall from his overblown chances, you're next, Takamaru!
Takamaru x 5
 

Gunla

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Count Bleck-GIBBERISH SCREAMING MY NAME
Pros
+Ummm..... cult favorite? He doesn't got much going for him...
Cons
-Requires Paper Mario, who isn't likely himself.
-Likely 6 slot cap slaughters him.
Overall... yeah, this isn't happening. No way we are getting Bleck without Paper Mario, nor 7 slots. .09%

Krystal- GIBBERISH LANGUAGE AND STAFFS BOIIII
Pros
+She's the next likely candidate. Kinda like Bandana Dee.
Cons
-Adventures?
-Star Fox "Has enough" Though this is an debatable aspect.
-Can easily turn into a clone. This is not good.
-Last Star Fox game? Command.
Overall... a better shot than Bleck but not much. 5%.

Both Want Scores can be measured by:
For my hatred of both of these characters in each game, and I want a lot of stuff over these two. Bleck is cool, but not above something else. I just despise Krystal with a burning passion. 00.00%
(I've noticed I've had a lot of low want scores lately, this will change tommorrow.)

Chrom is quite the fool indeed. I enjoyed his fall from grace... Who are we gonna kill next?

Daitoryo
The issue is that we're unsure of not only his chances, how much Nintendo cares, and whether they care about dates, but how this guy would play. I like him, but eh.... gonna shoot in the dark and say 2.7%.

Nominations
Takamaru is next, I guess. :grrr: X5
 
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Chandeelure

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Ugh...this characters deserve ... ZERO TIME!

-Count Bleck:
Chances:0%
Want:0%

-Krystal:
Chances:10%
Want:0%

-Daitoryo prediction:0%

Nomination:Shulk X5
 

XenothiumX

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Count Bleck
Likelihood: 0.1%

Want: 0%

Krystal
Likelihood: 35%
I do believe Krystal was on Sakurai's list of possible contender's for Brawl. In an interview Sakurai stated that Sonic the Hedgehog was the only character who made it into Brawl that was not on his initial list, which leads me to believe that the inclusion of Sonic the hedgehog altered the course of Brawl's development. Falco appeared in the Subspace Emissary's story line, so, clearly he was chosen to become a returning veteran early on in development. It is assumed that Wolf, Toon Link, and Jigglypuff were added at the last minuet to fill the roster up a little more since they did not appear until the end of the Subspace Emissary. If we look at these three characters and the forbidden 7 they are composed of clone characters (assuming Pra_Mai was going to be some Ice Climbers dou of Plusle and Minun with a Pikachu moveset) and characters who appeared previously in Melee. This make sense as clone characters and characters who the Developers have previously worked on in past games would be easier and faster to implement and balance. The inclusion of Wolf was one of Sakurai's last attempts under major time constraints to please the fans. Thus, why he would choose Wolf over Krystal for Star Fox's third representative.

I have come across a many posts on these forums stating that Adventures, Assault, and Command were failures. If we are comparing these three games to Star Fox 64, then of course their sales were not as successful but, Adventures and Assault broke the 1 million units sales and were both awarded player's choice by Nintendo, on the other hand... I can't say much for Command.

In terms of Krystal's relevancy... her last game was before Brawl which does not look good for her current popularity, however, keep in mind that during one of Sakurai's interviews for Kid Icarus he stated that when he saw the game play for his new game he almost used the Star Fox IP instead of Kid Icarus. Also, Sakurai likes to dwell on old idea's from the past...

Want: 100%
I supported this character prior to Brawl and I support her all the more today. With her staff she seems like the type of character I would love to fight with and I do not think that her inclusion would be a mistake at all. If Krystal would replace Falco or Wolf then so be it! I would view it as Sakurai's way of "Fixing" the Star Fox situation, In fact I would not object to the idea of stripping Starfox down to just 2 Representatives for more development time on a unique character from another one of Nintendo's franchises. I suppose Sakurai could change Wolf or Falco's movesets or at least their Final Smashes but, unfortunately I feel that most likely Sakurai will not bother doing anything about the current Starfox situation.

Daitoryo
Prediction: 0.1%

Nominations:
Slippy x5
 

DarkKry4

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Messages
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Count Bleck

Chance - 0%
Want - 0%

the most likely paper mario rep would be paper mario


Krystal

Chance - 0%
i don't know if i want to beat a dead horse but....

Her inclusion would be completely random considering all the newcomers we've gotten so far have been main characters of their own series (except Rosalina). If they were to add any secondary characters, it should be from a series that is popular and relevant. Star Fox, as we all know, has suffered a decline (since Krystal's debut) and is kinda dead atm. She doesn't even appear in the recent release (starfox 64 3D). So it wouldn't make sense to add another rep. Especially one who is barely requested in japan. Something like that matters since the game is made there.

Sure, she may have a loud fanbase in the west, has a staff (& its not even guaranteed to be apart of her Smash moveset), and is female but it wouldn't make her more likely or anything

I don't see Sakurai getting behind her to be included in this game. He seems more fond of Slippy (all speculation on my part tbh). Shes a character that lacks... notoriety in the nintendo universe imo. Far too unimportant.


Want - 0%




Daitoryou - 2%

x5 Tiny Kong
 
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Chandeelure

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Count Bleck

Chance - 0%
Want - 0%

the most likely paper mario rep would be paper mario


Krystal

Chance - 0%
i don't know if i want to beat a dead horse but....

Her inclusion would be completely random considering all the newcomers we've gotten so far have been main characters of their own series (except Rosalina). If they were to add any secondary characters, it should be from a series that is popular and relevant. Star Fox, as we all know, has suffered a decline (since Krystal's debut) and is kinda dead atm. She doesn't even appear in the recent release (starfox 64 3D). So it wouldn't make sense to add another rep. Especially one who is barely requested in japan. Something like that matters since the game is made there.

Sure, she may have a loud fanbase in the west, has a staff (& its not even guaranteed to be apart of her Smash moveset), and is female but it wouldn't make her more likely or anything

I don't see Sakurai getting behind her to be included in this game. He seems more fond of Slippy (all speculation on my part tbh). Shes a character that lacks... notoriety in the nintendo universe imo. Far too unimportant.


Want - 0%




Daitoryou - 2.3%

x5 Tiny Kong
Zero time!
 

Morbi

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Krystal Chance: 15%

She has a decent chance, I don't really see it happening though. It isn't inherently her fault, the series is dead and many do not want Wolf and Falco in the same game as it is.

Krystal Want: 25%

I used to want her, back in the pre-Brawl era. I only give her 25% out of respect. :awesome:
 

Pega-pony Princess

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Krystal

Chance: 10% I haven't even played any of the games with her in it, so...
Want: 0%

Renom:

X 5 Robin
 

Louie G.

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COUNT BLECK:

Chance: 0%
He's not getting in without Paper Mario as a separate series. And Paper Mario probably isn't even getting in, let alone as a separate franchise.

Want: 75%
I love Super Paper Mario, so the more representation the better. One of the most underrated games ever imo, amazing story and interesting and lovable characters.

KRYSTAL:

I was LITERALLY JUST THINKING ABOUT KRYSTAL'S CHANCES. And since I am largely positive about them at the moment, I'll be the outlier and say...

Chance: 65%
Yeah, you heard me. High number? Yes, but I have some reasoning. So I shall make a bulleted list.

- Female: Sakurai mentioned how happy he was to see a bunch of females joining the roster this time around. Krystal is one of Nintendo's most popular ladies, so it's possible that she's being considered.
- She will make people want to buy the game: Don't argue that the furries wont buy, because you're wrong.
- Popular Pre-Brawl: Sakurai is obviously looking back at Brawl for many of his decisions. Mega Man? One of the most popular characters Pre-Brawl. Villager? Scrapped idea for Brawl. Many things point to Krystal being considered during Brawl.
-Uniqueness: Her magic staff could be very unique, and Sakurai is certainly looking for uniqueness.
- Star Fox has gotten a new character will each Smash game: It doesn't help, but it doesn't hurt either.

So there you go.

Want: 80%
Not my first choice, but she could be a good character.

Daitoryou or howeveryouspellit: 3.5%

Noms: Muddy Mole x5
 

colder_than_ice

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I just reviewed the results.
Apparently Dr. Kawashima, Slime, and Sylveon all have a better chance than an actual Melee veteran.
Make of that what you will.
 

Cheezey Bites

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Slime is entirely understandable, Sylveon's a stretch, but game freak have the say, and they probably would put Sylveon first.

Dr Kawashima is a bit silly, but is probably more deserving as it is a very popular series.
 

No Control

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Count Bleck chance: 0.5%. And that's being generous. Paper Mario would have to get in first, which is itself unlikely at this point.
Count Bleck want: 10%. Meh.

Krystal chance: 20%. Definitely the most likely Star Fox newcomer, but SF ain't getting four reps, and I'm not convinced Sakurai will cut Falco or Wolf for Krystal.
Krystal want: 50%. I wouldn't mind her, actually.

Daitoroyo prediction: 0.25%. Just no, realistically.

Noms:
5x Three FE reps
 

Xenigma

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I just reviewed the results.
Apparently Dr. Kawashima, Slime, and Sylveon all have a better chance than an actual Melee veteran.
Make of that what you will.
Never mind those guys, Anthony Higgs has a higher chance than a Melee veteran according to this thread. That's harsh.
 
D

Deleted member

Guest
Never mind those guys, Anthony Higgs has a higher chance than a Melee veteran according to this thread. That's harsh.
We'll get to a point where even Owain will have a higher chance than a Melee veteran. We have rated every veteran, except Young Link.
 
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Louie G.

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I forgot to add in my Krystal post that Namco had helped with Star Fox Assault way back when, so it's possible that Namco recommends a Star Fox character in Smash for old times sake.
It doesn't have to be Krystal, but it's a possibility.
And I feel like people are extremely bias towards Krystal. Her chances are not as low as many of you perceive them to be, and this is coming from someone with very little attachment towards the character.
And me and Xenothium write lots of good things about Krystal and get little to no likes, while short little posts making fun of her get a bunch of 'em. Just goes to show most people's opinion about Krystal I suppose.
I wish we could get a completely unbiased opinion on characters so that K. Rool and Ridley aren't overrated and Krystal and Chrom now aren't underrated.
 

Arcanir

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Krystal
Chances: 5% I don't see her as that likely. She's not popular in Japan, not too important to her series and said series has suffered a major decline in recent years. You could argue that she could replace either Falco or Wolf, but both of those characters have much stronger followings so even then it's not that strong an argument. Her best bet is that she could bring a staff to the table, but even then that may not be enough to hold her above water.

Want: 5% Interesting moveset idea, but I do not like the character, I wouldn't like her replacing either Falco or Wolf and I don't think Star Fox should get another character over other series.
 

NickerBocker

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And I feel like people are extremely bias towards Krystal. Her chances are not as low as many of you perceive them to be, and this is coming from someone with very little attachment towards the character.
This.

Although I do think Krystal is limited due to the number of reps already present. That being said, she seems to be next in line.
 

loganhogan

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Count Bleck- 2% He's like the Fire Emblem villains, out the door as soon as the next game gets there sorry but he's trophy/sticker material to me.
Want: 33% I liked Super Paper Mario, it had a good story.

Krystal- 33% I honestly don't know where she falls, she's popular but one might think that Starfox is already capped with 3 characters. If Sakurai is willing to look that over then I can easily see her making it because she seems like the likeliest.
Want: 33% I don't know what to say, I don't hate her but I don't really want her either. Embarrass

x5 Funky Kong
 

Erimir

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Oh hey, King Dedede!

Count Bleck

Quickie tonight...

Yeah, he's not going to be in. His game was a while ago, and he's not the most appealing, and also Rosalina is already in...

Count Bleck chances: 0.3%

Count Bleck want: 10%
I liked Super Paper Mario but meh.

Krystal

I think she's less likely than I did before.

Krystal chances: 9.5%

Krystal want: 45%
I don't care much either way, but I would be annoyed at Star Fox getting 4 reps...

Daitoryo prediction: 1%

Nominations:
Toad x5
 

Toxicroaker

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The only reason I gave her a 7% is because I don't think that she is the only possible Starfox character. I think that Peppy, Slippy, and Leon all have a shot also. I will still bump it up to 10% though just because I HATE people being biased and I was being just that.
 

Glaciacott

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I forgot to add in my Krystal post that Namco had helped with Star Fox Assault way back when, so it's possible that Namco recommends a Star Fox character in Smash for old times sake.
It doesn't have to be Krystal, but it's a possibility.
And I feel like people are extremely bias towards Krystal. Her chances are not as low as many of you perceive them to be, and this is coming from someone with very little attachment towards the character.
And me and Xenothium write lots of good things about Krystal and get little to no likes, while short little posts making fun of her get a bunch of 'em. Just goes to show most people's opinion about Krystal I suppose.
I wish we could get a completely unbiased opinion on characters so that K. Rool and Ridley aren't overrated and Krystal and Chrom now aren't underrated.
Well of course people are extremely biased, just like we can say you're just biased in favor of Krystal. We're all human, we carry our opinions like flags and use logic and reason in ways that will be convenient towards what we believe.
Also consider, that a lot of people here had high expectations for Krystal in Brawl and that didn't happen, so now there's a greater sense of humility in terms of trying not to overrate how likely she is this time.

Something else: between the overrating from people who like her, and the underrating of people who don't like her, we're likely to get a more accurate average that fairly represents her chances. And that's really the point of this game, and the point of having looked back to see if anyone was overrated in previous days.

And last thing, since you ask: you don't know why people liked posts or why they didn't, unless it's morbidaltruism, then we can assume he liked it because he likes everything. Like, personally, a good amount of my likes are the result of gifs or amusing comments about Bleck, or people posting information I wasn't aware of. Your post I didn't like because I don't agree with four star fox reps. It's nothing against you, or a result of "Krystal hate forever!" and it's not fair to assume other people here who've also posted extensive arguments should be reduced to that.
 

Pacack

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And last thing, since you ask: you don't know why people liked posts or why they didn't, unless it's morbidaltruism, then we can assume he liked it because he likes everything. Like, personally, a good amount of my likes are the result of gifs or amusing comments about Bleck, or people posting information I wasn't aware of. Your post I didn't like because I don't agree with four star fox reps. It's nothing against you, or a result of "Krystal hate forever!" and it's not fair to assume other people here who've also posted extensive arguments should be reduced to that.
Very true. I only see Krystal as unlikely because of there already being three Star Fox characters in the game. It's the same reason I don't expect another Mother character. We were lucky to get a second Mother character, and it's not likely that we're getting a third because of that. We were also lucky to get up to three Star Fox characters and we're probably not getting a fourth.
 
D

Deleted member

Guest
King Dedede! Not much to say here, except that I am a bit disappointed that we didn't see Waddle Dee Toss…
We pretty much knew that he would be in the game anyway.
 
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Louie G.

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Well of course people are extremely biased, just like we can say you're just biased in favor of Krystal. We're all human, we carry our opinions like flags and use logic and reason in ways that will be convenient towards what we believe.
Also consider, that a lot of people here had high expectations for Krystal in Brawl and that didn't happen, so now there's a greater sense of humility in terms of trying not to overrate how likely she is this time.

Something else: between the overrating from people who like her, and the underrating of people who don't like her, we're likely to get a more accurate average that fairly represents her chances. And that's really the point of this game, and the point of having looked back to see if anyone was overrated in previous days.

And last thing, since you ask: you don't know why people liked posts or why they didn't, unless it's morbidaltruism, then we can assume he liked it because he likes everything. Like, personally, a good amount of my likes are the result of gifs or amusing comments about Bleck, or people posting information I wasn't aware of. Your post I didn't like because I don't agree with four star fox reps. It's nothing against you, or a result of "Krystal hate forever!" and it's not fair to assume other people here who've also posted extensive arguments should be reduced to that.
Nah, I completely understand. Not a lot of people agree with that.
Krystal isn't even close to being my favorite candidate, so I can say with certainty that I am not biased against her.
Although she has a large hate base, along with Chrom, and K. Rool and Ridley have a huge fanbase, so their ratings will be lower and higher than they should be (respectively).
And the likes thing was just an observation.
Someone goes into detail about why a character is a good choice and they don't get as many likes as someone who says "DOUBLE ZEROS ALL AROUND" (don't want to call out my bud Chandy but still). It shows which side is favored really.
And my rating is very high since the very day before I had been considering everything that Krystal has going for her.
 

YoshiandToad

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Still up Peach's dress.
Although she has a large hate base, along with Chrom, and K. Rool and Ridley have a huge fanbase, so their ratings will be lower and higher than they should be (respectively).
This is quite true. I know another forum was doing a similar thing, and I'd like to see if they're the same. Krystal is overly hated on here on Smashboards, far more than other Smash communities. Likewise Ridley is overpraised a lot here compared to other places, and Chrom is more loved over at GameFAQS than here. K. Rool is highly requested(although despite this huge fanbase still for some reason can't get into an actual DK game of recent) but the sycophantic nature of Smashboards collective seeing about six characters as the only worthy ones does put my nose out of joint on a frequent basis.

It's a shame Japan itself cares far less about Smash speculation than we do, or maybe we could compare and contrast their equivalent of this game. We know they care less about individuals such as Ridley and Isaac from Chrono's notes, but many of our opinions have changed as time has gone on;

We're now seeing Chrom as overrated(although he still has a better chance than Robin or Lucina) and completely altered our minds on Bandana Dee's chances despite there not really being much to either disclaim the first or boost the latter's chances.
 

XenothiumX

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We're now seeing Chrom as overrated(although he still has a better chance than Robin or Lucina) and completely altered our minds on Bandana Dee's chances despite there not really being much to either disclaim the first or boost the latter's chances.
Bandana Dee was over-rated as a joke by his butthurt fans. Nobody took that day seriously...
 
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