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Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

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Starcutter

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Quote-5% I'm giving him a chance because recently Nintendo has been really liking indie games. And he's the biggest contender for indie games.

Want: 60% he looks iinteresting enough.

Chrome: 45% robins better plzdonthurtme
Want: 30%

Pichu: 3.33

Noms
Grovyle x2
Stork x3
 
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LoneKonWolf

Lazy Lonely Lurker☕
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wow missed a few days, gotta keep track
Quote - 0.000001
he's third party, indie, has nothing Important to Nintendo, and is far under the radar, he has no cance
want - 10%
I liked cave story, just I don't want him in as he is a third party and will take up one of their slots
chrom - 15.24%
at first I thought chrom was the most likeliest fire embelm character, then time passes by, new information and example get shown, and he doesn't seem so likely anymore, I mean he isn't the most popular, not the most unique, or even more iconic, the only thing that works in his favor is recency, and that's not too effective there is always the chance, just not very high
want - 0%
at first I was neutral pre e3, then after it every one started talking about him replacing ike, and then my wolf hatred returned to make me hate another character to the deepest pits of hell, where I hope he eventually goes down to burn alive in agony
pichu - 2.22%
he's not going to score too high, sadly
nominations:
IkeX5
 

Rouge

Smash Journeyman
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Nov 8, 2013
Messages
246
Location
Montreal
Quote
Chance: 4%
Want: 15%

Chrom

Chance:

Let's see, I'm about 95% certain that Awakening is getting a rep (+95). My gut says that Robin's the one that is more likely (-55). A pair could happen too (-15). I don't believe that solo Lucina or Anna would ever make it over Chrom.

So 25% for solo Chrom.

Want: 0 - Chrom is just so awful. It really pleased me to see Awakening get great reviews because Fire Emblem needed that, so I came into the game ready to love its main character. But boy did he suck. He wasn't even the primary protagonist despite being advertised as such. Chrom has nothing interesting about him at all. I don't find him funny, relatable, inspiring, cool, original, etc. In short, just a bad character. I'll cringe if he makes it in.

Pichu: 4%

Robin x 5

Edit: My 100th post being me hating on Chrom <3
 

colder_than_ice

Smash Lord
Joined
Jan 7, 2013
Messages
1,331
Quote
Chance: 0% - There are just so many other third parties.
Want: 87% - I love his design, and I think he'd make a cool character.

Chrom
Chance: 83% - Okay people, Roy is retired and not nearly as requested as a lot of people on this forum think. Lucina is way too similar to Marth and isn't even the star of her own game. I love Robin, but I don't think he/she would have the same appeal without character customization. Remember that the entire purpose of Robin was to put a player Avatar into Awakening, so removing customization would (at least in my opinion) destroy Robin's identity. We don't even know if Ike's a lock. I personally don't think Chrom has much competition.
Want: 100% - I think that pretty much any character has the potential to be unique, and I thought Chrom was a fun and interesting character. I would love to see him in Smash.

I'm sorry if this came off as brash. :(

Pichu prediction: 7.4%

Nominations: Gyromite stage x5
 

Xenigma

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Quote - 0%
Not to be rude to any Quote supporters out there, but...why? Cave Story is, first and foremost, a PC game, not a Nintendo game. Further, it's an indie game with a fanbase that isn't even remotely comparable to any of the three third party characters that have been/will be in Smash. Yes, it's been ported to Nintendo consoles some three times now. Yes, one of those is even a special 3D version exclusive to the 3DS. That doesn't make a character, or even a franchise, Smash material. Cave Story is just a game that's on Nintendo consoles. In the long history of Nintendo, that's not exactly special, and as Sakurai has told us before, third parties in Smash are always special cases. I don't see how Quote and Cave Story in general even remotely qualify. (Also, as an aside, retro-styled character known for shooting things? We've got that character already, and he's even third party. His name is Mega Man.)
Want - 0% - Terrible waste of a third party spot, regardless of how good Cave Story is.

Chrom - 40%
There's a strong chance Awakening gets a character in SSB4, and no doubt Chrom is the most obvious choice. However, he's also possibly the worst choice, considering he's incredibly redundant to Marth and Ike and is less unique than fellow protagonists Robin and Lucina, plus his individual popularity compared to fellow Awakening characters isn't so strong that he can get in by that metric alone. He's too big to rate poorly, and he's got several avenues into Smash (unique moveset, replacing Ike, maybe paired with another character), but the competition within his own game is very strong, not to mention the smaller possibilities of Roy or another older FE character. Wouldn't be surprised at all if he made it in, but I would be even less surprised if he lost out to someone else.
Want - 25% - He would be a very disappointing choice, but considering how much I liked Awakening, I'd be happy enough it got a character.

Pichu Prediction - 3.5%
I'd say he's the least likely veteran, but it's pretty hard to beat Young Link at this point.

Nominations
Sheik x5
 

Pacack

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Understood. Just happened to be the first thing to come to mind when wondering of generic evaluations based on hair color.

Btw, Zelda is totally blond in my book. Even if Smash seems to go for the dirty blond look.
Regardless, Zelda's definitely a Brunette in her Brawl and SSB4 appearances. If we're going by original designs, we'd also have to say that Samus has green hair :p
 

Erimir

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Is it the blue hair and sword? 'Cause that's a really stupid reason to hate someone.
Because it makes him not especially unique for a move set. What does Chrom bring to the game, as far as gameplay, that Marth and Ike do not? Or that Roy, Lyn or Lucina would not?

The fact that he's a blue-haired, male lord also makes him less visually and conceptually distinct as well.

Why add another character like that when we could get (just within Fire Emblem) a character that looks more different, or is female, or uses a different weapon, or uses magic (or both)?

From my perspective, unless Sakurai did something crazy with him, he'd be a giant yawn. And to someone who hasn't played Fire Emblem and who is exposed to the game through Smash only, it would suggest that the characters are all the same.

Thinking about this has inspired me to lower my want score even lower, actually. I'd much rather see any of the Fire Emblem characters which are at least more different.
By that logic, let's complain about how all of the Nintendo female representatives so far are blond and have no weapons.
Zelda and WFT aren't blonde. Rosalina has a wand, ZSS has a stun gun/laser whip and regular Samus has many, many weapons. Sheik also has a chain...
Give us more diversity or else UNREASONABLE HATE!
Additionally, possession of the same type of weapon is probably a greater factor in making characters similar than not using a weapon is. WFT, Peach and Rosalina are totally different, if you don't want to count any of them as having weapons.

Captain Falcon, Ganondorf, Bowser, Jigglypuff, Pikachu, Lucario, Mario, Luigi, Pokemon Trainer, Sonic, Wii Fit Trainer, Donkey Kong, Yoshi, Zelda, Mewtwo... no weapons. Are you suggesting that non-weapon users are just as similar to each other as the sword-users are to each other?
 

Glaciacott

Smash Lord
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No, Erimir, it's been established above that it was a poor example.

Thank you though for answering what I was wondering about the Chrom hate, though. Mostly because from my perspective he's just another lord, and even though I want Robin more than anything for the sake of diversity, I don't see why Chrom merits such extreme hate.
 

Natz~

Full of Hugs and Fire~
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Still rolling
quote: who? I'm just going to leave a 1%
want: 0%
I don't really want someone I don't know :( sorry
chrom: 25%
I guess he has some chance
want:
do I want chrom?

0%
pichu: 5%
maybe luck will change for the little guy...
nominations:
amaterasu+5
 

Cheezey Bites

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Slime is still voted low, but he's not the most obvious choice, and even I can't consider him likely, not even most likely 3rd party (though I personally think he's a clear second) so I understand the reservations, especially in the west. Still happy his Want score is rising, if not this gen I can start campaigning for him in the next game I guess. Anyway, onto rating.


Quote:

Chance: 0%
Indie games have really taken off, and a're a huge battleground for this gen, one which the Wii U is winning in going by kickstarter, but that's now, and Quote originates from the PC way before Nintendo. I could see an indie rep next game, but for now, it's just not established enough in Nintendo's strategy. Also he uses guns.

Want: 0%
Next game I want to see an indie rep, but not yet, there's too many big names left... And even then, next gen we'll have competition like Hat Kid, Beck or Knite.. And anything made in the meantime that gets popular. Plus I just don't think Cave Story is that good...


Chrom:

Chance: 48%
Still the frontrunner, but I'm less inclined to think Awakening will get a rep... It's one game, on Marth's continent, with Marty being a significant plot point... Marth reps the game well enough, moreover, he uses the same sword if differently designed... He's second party, so he might be requested, but I think Sakurai would want someone more unique.

Want: 25%
Don't care, no FE character will really get me hyped anymore, we've been discussing them too much for me to care.

Pichu: 4.2%
Balance. Pitchu bros would be an option if we hadn't moved on so much in pokémon.

Pokémon AT*5
 

YoshiandToad

Smash Hero
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Still up Peach's dress.
Quote
Chance: 0%

Positives:
+ Critically Acclaimed
Negatives:
- PC game first and foremost.
- PC Indie game first and foremost at that. Small niche fanbase compared to Sonic, Megaman and Snake.
- Not particularly well known, thus not legendary.

I'm gonna call it. This is one of the most ridiculous nominations we've had thus far. Omastar, Yarne, Owain, Cole, etc whilst none of which being hugely popular or important overall to their series at least have been part of Nintendo.

Bomberman, Layton, Phoenix Wright, Tails, Knuckles, Slime, etc whilst not being Nintendo are at least known to appear on Nintendo consoles and are famous 3rd Parties.

Quote is neither of these. It'd be like me nominating Team Fortress's Heavy.

Want: 0%

Get out.

------

Chrom:
Chance: 50%

In Chrom's favour he's the protagonist of the latest Fire Emblem, a lord with a sword which follows the previous Smash FE veterans requirements.

On the downside he shares the protagonist role with Robin and his daughter Lucina, with the former offering far more gameplay wise than Chrom possibly could and the latter with...okay Lucina doesn't have much going for her either, except more female representation, but considering she's very popular, possibly the most popular female FE character at current, she has a fighting chance as well.

Not only does he have to compete with his fellow Awakening protagonists, he also has to compete with previous Melee veteran and the number 2 most wanted on Japan's wishlist; Roy who honestly offers about the same as Chrom, but with a different blade with slightly altered properties. Depending on if Roy were to be decloned his sword would allow him to have a far more unique fighting style; the blade has been shown to be able to heal Roy and in the manga(not sure if in the game) has been shown to be able to do as it name suggests; seal people by crystallising them.

Like others have mentioned as well; Marth, Ike and Roy represent the three continents of the Fire Emblem World, so that could also be another point in Roy's favour and against Chrom. MAYBE.

Chrom, like Lucina, also shares Marth sword. It's not a deal breaker but two of the same 'one of a kind' sword always came off as peculiar to me.

There's also the distinct chance we may not even GET another Fire Emblem character and we may stick with simply Marth and Ike. Even Ike isn't a 100% cert so Chrom arguably also has to compete with the second most important Lord in FE lore. Yeesh. Chrom's obstacles keep on growing.

This all sounds very bleak, but Chrom has one advantage over the other two FE Awakening characters at the very least; unlike Lucina he isn't basically a gender swap Marth(who is already IN the game) and unlike Robin, he has a set name, gender and appearance, possibly making it easier to develop him.

Unlike Roy and Ike he's also getting heavily promoted of recent in games like Monster Hunter over in Japan(which is HUGE over there) but that alone doesn't give him an edge over Lucina who is doing likewise.

Honestly though at this point I can see either Robin, Roy or Chrom&Lucina beating out Chrom on his lonesome so I feel it could go either way.

Want: 5%
Sorry Chrom but you are one of the most boring options to me. Either give me the ability to throw magic around with Robin(AND swordsplay) or gimme back Roy with the ability to heal myself or trap people with the Sword of Seals. Another Falchion user just doesn't appeal when we've got Marth doing a perfectly fine job of being an archetype vanilla swordsman.

With Chrom it's really a case of I expect Chrom, but I'd rather have almost ANYONE else. Except Lucina. Or Chrom & Lucina together in a tagteam. I'd even settle for Chrom & Robin if it gives us the chance to swing some magic around as well.

Pichu Prediction: 4%
Pichu was the only character from Melee than was completely unintended to return. However unlike Melee's Young Link, Pichu actually has some fans so he'll do bad but not the worst score a veteran will receive.

Nominations:
Robin X 5. Might as well since s/he got mentioned in my post so much.
 
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SmashShadow

Smash Champion
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Negatives:
- PC exclusive
- PC Indie exclusive at that
- Not associated with Nintendo in any way.
Even Snake has more merits on his own.
- Not particularly well known, thus not legendary.
:ohwell: Umm...


Quote: 1%
Want: 25% I honestly care more for cave story music than the main character...not that he was bad or anything.

Chrom: 45%
Want: 10% Really boring to me.

Pichu: 2%
 

Jubileus57

Smash Ace
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579
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Quote Chances: 0.00001%
Quote Want: 0%

Chrom Chances: 50% I really don't know what to think about him..
Chrom Want: 15%

Pichu: 5%

Bayonetta x5
 

YoshiandToad

Smash Hero
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Still up Peach's dress.
Want - 20% - People always say that your first Fire Emblem Lord sticks with you. Guess I'm a counterexample. Really, as I keep on repeating, Stahl is a more interesting character to me. Those who play Awakening know that this is quite the insult. I found him drab and boring, and would happily take Anna and Roy, or at least Robin, over him.
You're not alone in that. At all. Chrom's my first lord too but he's...really generically heroic? Is it because everyone around him has far more fleshed out personalities and quirks that Chrom himself comes off as such a toned down character?

Also I think you're the first person I've seen that remembers who Stahl is. Ironically in to the players he seems to be what Kellam is made out to be in the game.
 

True Blue Warrior

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Quote Chance:0.5%
Quote Want:0%

Chrom Chances: 35%-Robin is far more likely as he/she offers far more diversity
Chrom Want: 50%
 

No Control

Smash Apprentice
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Sep 28, 2013
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151
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Quote Chance: 0%. The first flat zero I've given, but it's so so unlikely.
Quote Want: 1%. This is a Nintendo all-star fighting game. I see no reason he should be in it.

Chrom Chance: 30%. He's not unlikely but out of him, Roy, Ike, and Lucina, I can't see more than 2 of them getting in and maybe only 1 will.
Chrom Want: 45%. Don't really care who gets in from FE except Marth really, but I guess I would slightly prefer Roy to him. Other than that I'm indifferent to his inclusion.

Pichu Prediction: 4.99%.

Nominations:
x5 Three Fire Emblem Slots
 

FalKoopa

Rainbow Waifu
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Quote:
Likelihood: 0%
Well, he's from an Indie game. That's his biggest pitfall.

Want: 50%
Won't really mind him. Cave Story is a great game after all.

Chrom:
Likelihood: 45%
The emphasis on uniqueness on newcomer choices really does put a damper on his chances, I think. And he's got competition too. :ike: :roypm:

Want: 30%
Nah, not really.

Pichu prediction: 4%
Poor fellow.

Nominations: 6 Mario characters x 5
 

Groose

Smash Champion
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Like a certain duo I've been nominating.
Oh, boy! I can't wait. I'm actually thinking about an Ace Attorney post for that day. It might be time for me to bust out some Manfred von Karma...
Chrom: Umm.. it can light up blue?
OcarinaOfDoom: YAY LET'S MAKE A MOVESET BASED ON A SWORD LIGHTING UP DIFFERENT COLORS!
This part literally killed me. I often snicker when I'm reading people's posts, but this one made me burst out laughing. Kudos.

That picture is awesome. Don't be surprised if I start using it.Did you make it yourself?

Don't forget to put x5
Ah, it doesn't matter. I pretty much assume that it means five noms and count it as such anyway. Evey once in a while I get a (seemingly) confused person that puts a x3 or such... I just make it x5.
Edit: My 100th post being me hating on Chrom <3
Gratz on 100 posts! I think that's a worthwhile reason for it, too :p

Yeah, I just editted my post whilst you were QUOTEing me.

(ba-dum-tish)
Hey, look! some one who makes worse Quote-puns than me! You have earned my utmost respect.
 
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Substitution

Deacon Blues
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Quote:
Chance: 0.1%
Want: 80%
Think of it, a bag, as a fighter. Why has nobody thought up of it yet!

Chrom:
Chance: 70ish%
May due to the popularity of Awakening, but not over Marth, nor Ike.
Want: 50%
Never really cared for him.

Pichu:
Predict: 95%
What? I like being optimistic... Plus Sakurai...
 

Shotguner159

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Feb 1, 2013
Messages
172
Location
England
Quote:
Chance: 0%
Want: 0%

Chrom:
Chance: 20%
Marth is confirmed and Ike isn't going to be cut either. FE will probably get three characters, so it's a competition between all of the contenders. Chrom's the main lord of Awakening, but other than that... Roy gets more requests to be in Smash, Lucina is just as, if not more, popular in terms of FE, and is used to advertise Awakening more than he is now the game is released. In terms of uniqueness, every other contender beats him. Roy has his fire sword, Robin combines swords and magic, Lucina can do everything he can do and can draw from stuff her mothers can give her too. Sure, you could really stretch what some of his skills can do to get something, or give him a lance, but nothing that would make him stand out in terms of uniqueness compared to the others.
Want: 0%.
 

APC99

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Well, I've made new enemies. YOU'VE ALL BETRAYED ME!

I'm actually serious. Most of you laugh off the idea and dismiss it as stupid. And that REALLY pisses me off. I know he's not likely at all, but someday look what he can do. Play Cave Story, it's an amazing game.

Quote:

Likelihood: 5%. I don't see him as likely. AT ALL. But, in all honesty, he can be a unique character. On Sakurai's radar? Probably not. A character who would fit into the Smash Bros. series? Yes.

Want: 95%. The only third-party who beats him is Pac-Man. Layton, Geno, Slime, Shantae, all are inferior in my opinion to Quote's abilities. Although, at a glance, Cave Story is like Mega Man, but it's much more. His booster allows him to fly, he can use flamethrowers, bubble guns, energy blasters, missile launchers, giant snaking projectiles and even a sword laced with the spirit of a king. He's a cool character. Think about a character who levels up depending on how much damage he racks out and if he can collect it. His weapons change depending on how much XP you have. The XP can be beat out of him. A leveling character is something we haven't seen in Smash. And the game is amazing as well, Quote is a cool character with interesting abilities. So honestly, all of you who call him a Mega Man clone and refuse to look into what Quote can do as a character should shut up and do some research.

I'm SURE that, based on most of your opinions about it being a "Nintendo fighting game", you despise Snake being in as well. If you're going to go around saying it's a Nintendo fighting game and some characters don't belong, yet you're on the "Keep Snake" wagon not because of Kojima's friendship with Sakurai, but because he's a unique character, stop being a hypocrite. I can understand most of your decisions why you don't want him over Pac-Man or such. But to just push him to the side because you don't care what he does, or won't do research to see what he can do, go push your negativity somewhere else. Give an explanation that isn't half-a**ed.

Chrom:

Likelihood: 70%. I don't know much about Fire Emblem, but I'll admit he's likely.

Want: 50%. I have no idea what he does or his stats, but I've heard interesting suggestions about being a stance fighter, switching between lances and sword. So, I mostly give him half to be safe.

Nominations:

Scrooge McDuck x5 because I might as well see people hate on another character I adore because of uneducation. :glare:.
 

Xenigma

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I'm SURE that, based on most of your opinions about it being a "Nintendo fighting game", you despise Snake being in as well. If you're going to go around saying it's a Nintendo fighting game and some characters don't belong, yet you're on the "Keep Snake" wagon not because of Kojima's friendship with Sakurai, but because he's a unique character, stop being a hypocrite.
Snake being in Smash was weird, sure. However, I'm willing to give a pass to one of the most famous video game characters out there, and after having him in Brawl, I don't particularly want to lose his very unique moveset nor his hilarious codec taunts. Had he never been in a Smash game, I probably wouldn't support him for Smash. After seeing how well he was implemented in Brawl, I don't want him to ever leave.

Yes, both Snake and Quote have questionable Nintendo relevance. However, the difference between the two in terms of popularity and influence is huge. Snake getting into Smash was very much a special case driven by Hideo Kojima, one of the biggest names in gaming, asking for the inclusion since Melee. Unless Sakurai just happens to be friends with Cave Story creator Daisuke Amaya, I can't imagine Quote gets so lucky.
 

Sid-cada

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Joined
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Messages
1,784
You're not alone in that. At all. Chrom's my first lord too but he's...really generically heroic? Is it because everyone around him has far more fleshed out personalities and quirks that Chrom himself comes off as such a toned down character?

Also I think you're the first person I've seen that remembers who Stahl is. Ironically in to the players he seems to be what Kellam is made out to be in the game.
Late response, but I had to go to school.

I think the big problem with Chrom is they tried to make him another everyman character. This meant that many parts of his personality had to be downplayed in order to make him more appealing to everybody.

Do you see the big problem? There's already an avatar of the player, so an "everyman" character was redundant. Heck, Stahl, Kellam, and possibly Donny could also be considered everymen, so he's competing with 4 others.

Everymen typically are underdogs, so they can root for his triumph and are better able to relate to them. Chrom, on the other hand, is already in a position of high honor, making it harder to relate to him. We also rarely seem Chrom struggle, as all the army tactics go over to the avatar, so Chrom ends up mostly just there to act as a main character. Heck, I'd even argue that when You-know-who did You-know-what in Chapter 9, the opposing army was more affected than Chrom was. When you think about that, it's kind of sad.


As for Stahl, I might admit to liking him a bit more than most people. Really, I like all three folks of the "Underdog Trio" of Stahl, Kellam, and Donny. Their cases of everymen who, I feel, succeed. They feel the most like real people would act, outside of their specific quirks, and just seem like nice guys. Stahl's my favorite of the trio, though, as he comes closest to a normal person to me. He's humble, kind, and thoughtful, and all around feels like he's fighting just because he feels like he should be. Maybe the fact that I S ranked him with Sully while almost everyone else was still having Cs may have something to do with that, though the marriage was an intentional decision.
 

Glaciacott

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Late response, but I had to go to school.

I think the big problem with Chrom is they tried to make him another everyman character. This meant that many parts of his personality had to be downplayed in order to make him more appealing to everybody.

Do you see the big problem? There's already an avatar of the player, so an "everyman" character was redundant. Heck, Stahl, Kellam, and possibly Donny could also be considered everymen, so he's competing with 4 others.

Everymen typically are underdogs, so they can root for his triumph and are better able to relate to them. Chrom, on the other hand, is already in a position of high honor, making it harder to relate to him. We also rarely seem Chrom struggle, as all the army tactics go over to the avatar, so Chrom ends up mostly just there to act as a main character. Heck, I'd even argue that when You-know-who did You-know-what in Chapter 9, the opposing army was more affected than Chrom was. When you think about that, it's kind of sad.


As for Stahl, I might admit to liking him a bit more than most people. Really, I like all three folks of the "Underdog Trio" of Stahl, Kellam, and Donny. Their cases of everymen who, I feel, succeed. They feel the most like real people would act, outside of their specific quirks, and just seem like nice guys. Stahl's my favorite of the trio, though, as he comes closest to a normal person to me. He's humble, kind, and thoughtful, and all around feels like he's fighting just because he feels like he should be. Maybe the fact that I S ranked him with Sully while almost everyone else was still having Cs may have something to do with that, though the marriage was an intentional decision.
This post actually got me thinking. Maybe what changes everything for me is that I married Chrom and then the story evolved into this complex tragedy sort of thing, which worked fantastically well. But I guess it's true that otherwise his character would have pretty much nothing. Hadn't really given it thought before.
 

Aqua Rock X

Smash Ace
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717
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Tennessee
QUOTE

Chance: 0% - Nope.

Want: 0% - Nope.

CHROM

Chance: 2% - Eh.

Want: 0% -Blegh.

Pichu Prediction: 2% - Pichu, pi!!!!

Nominations:
Micaiah x5
 

Morbi

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Chrom Chance: 50%

It is really between Roy and Chrom, if Sakurai speaks to Intelligent Systems, I have no doubt that they prefer to advocate Chrom. If he wants an easy clone that many are expecting, Sakurai will most likely choose Chrom. It is really 50/50, the favor may slightly be in Roy's favor as he is the more established character. However, people are deluding themselves if they say Chrom doesn't have a chance.

Chrom Want: It depends- 75% average.
W/Lucina, Tag-Team: 100%
W/Roy also in the game: 75%
W/o Roy: 50%
 

Starcutter

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My want for Pac-Man decided my rating, personally.

I also don't want him in Smash since he's not really a Nintendo all star.
he's the most nintendo indie game, probably. and nintendo has been liking indie games recently.
 

Starcutter

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Eh. That's not saying much, honestly. Not a lot of popular indie games with Nintendo.
oh, well, I'm trying to justify him as much as I can, I really like him.

and Pac-Man is not a reasonable reason to not like him at all. just sayin'.
 
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