Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[Pacack]

God damnit OG fossil pokemon are important enough for a pokemon exclusive roster >.>

You'd be surprised how many other Pokemon take precedence.

All the starters
Promotional Pokemon (including past ones)
Popular Pokemon
Classic Pokemon
Pokemon owned by characters in the Anime.
Other Pokemon that are easier to program.

However, that's just how I see it (and we should take this to the Pokken Fighters forum)

 

[MargnetMan23]

You'd be surprised how many other Pokemon take precedence.

All the starters
Promotional Pokemon (including past ones)
Popular Pokemon
Classic Pokemon
Pokemon owned by characters in the Anime.
Other Pokemon that are easier to program.

However, that's just how I see it (and we should take this to the Pokken Fighters forum)

Hey, you could keep 2/3 slots open to representatives of a whole class of pokemon =P

 

[Hippopotasauce]

First off, I don't really consider any KI character likely except for Palutena. She is far more important than the characters you mentioned and Medusa isn't even important in the long run, you know.
And for the small series with 2 reps thing...

Ness does not really represent the whole of his series in the same way that Pit does.

 

[colder_than_ice]

Aww, I missed a day.

Omastar
Chance: 0% - He's very random, but if we somehow get 450 playable Pokemon reps he may have a chance (in other words, he has no chance).
Want: 87% - Once I've gotten over how undeserving he is, I'd have to admit that playing as a prehistoric, spiral-shelled, tentacle wielding sea monster would be pretty cool.

Palutena
Chance: 95% - She is extremely popular and relevant.
Want: 96% - Who doesn't want her to be playable.

Dr. Kawashima prediction: 2.3%

Nominations: Aeron x5

 

[XenothiumX]

Omastar
Likelihood: ~0.001%
Only because I never give zero's in likelihood...

Want: 0%
I ALWAYS choose Kabutops!

Palutena
Likelihood: 72.5%
When I first saw this character suggestion I though it was some dumb idea that snowballed out of control, however, now that I have played Uprising my opinion has changed. What convinced me the most was the fact that she uses an obvious "up-special" looking attack in her boss battle. The fact that she does that seems unnecessary for any reason other than teasing the fans for her possible playability in the next smash. I don't think a second KI rep is necessary, but she is a popular character due to relevance.

Want: 100%
She's a Babe!

Dr. Kawashima
Prediction: 1%

Nominations:
Krystal x5

 

[Zhadgon]

Character
Omastar
Chance: 0.5% Only if Sakurai went to work drunk and high that day and decide suddenly to tell his team that the best Pokemon ever to include in Smash would be Omastar (chances of happening 0.5%).
Want: 100% One of my top favorite Pokemon even today with 719 Pokemon in existence so yeah I would be surprised and happy if it ever make it into the roster.

Rerate Character
Palutena
Chance: 25% Everyone is thinking that sge would be a shoe in but lets put the cards on the table, she still needs to beat the following characters Ridley, King K. Rool, Little Mac, Mii, Chrom, Isaac, Shulk, Takamaru, Starfy, Bowser Jr., New Pokemon (Zoroark, Genesect, Deoxys) and probably I´m forgetting some great characters, so the competition is rough and I don´t think any of these characters can get the 100% of chance.
Want: 25% pretty much meh... the only reason I can be fine with her inclusion if she is revealed with Omastar (yeah I went there, deal with it ).

Prediction
Dr. Kawashima: 15% I think he can give us the surprise.

Nomination
Travis Touchdown x 5

.n_n.

 

[Arcanir]

Omastar
Chances-0.1% There are many other stronger choices for the series that would probably be considered over it.
Want-0%

Palutena
Chances-80% From a series that just recently got its return and is a very popular character on both sides of the sea. The only thing I could see going against her is that her series only just recently got a revival and thus is not as strong as other series but I feel that she has enough to go over that wall.
Want-90% Loved her character in Uprising and I'd enjoy playing as her in Smash.

 

[FalKoopa]

Omastar:
Likelihood and Want: 0%
OmaSTAR is not a Nintendo All-STAR. Sorry, you don't have enough STARpower to be in this game.... Unless you get a STARring role in a movie.

...I'll stop now.

Lady Palutena, victory is ours! ~
Likelihood: 60%
She is very likely, but by no means a shoo-in. Her supposed popularity in both Japan and the West, along with the fact that she got a bit of a role in Brawl's SSE and had a large role in Uprising helps her.

Want: 65%
My want has waned a bit, as other characters have taken her place in my want list.

Dr. Kawashima prediction: 4%

Dr. Mario x 5

 

[Starbound]

Omastar: 0% Chance and 0% Want

You've gotta stand out in a crowd of 718, and while Omastar's dancing moves are only behind Spinda and Ludicolo, it just... seems way too out of left field to be a serious idea.

Palutena: 85% Chance and 100% Want

I do fear that Uprising could be considered "too new" for Smash U as it just came out once development started, and Sakurai is a modest man, which may impact Palutena's chances in a negative way.

However, Palutena is in Japan's "Elite Four" (Mega Man, Shulk, King K. Rool and herself), and popularity in Japan is a big help. Sakurai does always choose some of the most popular characters to get in. Not all, but some (I think around 50%, given time constraints). Something else worth considering is if Sakurai is still babying Kid Icarus like the honors student it is, if there's no plans to have a Kid Icarus 4 (which there currently are no plans), now is the perfect time to add Palutena, as she'll only get more and more irrelevant as time goes on.

Also Palutena is my waifu5ever.

Dr. No Arms: 2%

 

[Aqua Rock X]

OH NO!! The Omastar invasion has begun! It's gonna get ugly folks, it's gonna get ugly!

Omastar

Chance: 0.01% - Omastar has greatly overestimated its popularity and importance and that shall be the beast's downfall!!

Want: 0% - NNOOOOoooooOOOOOOOOO!!!! I'll have none of your evil, Omastar. NONE!
*Ahem*

Palutena

Chance: 80% - She has great demand and popularity in both east and west. Sakurai could play the modesty card on her though.

Want: 80% - She seems like an interesting character. On one hand, I haven't played Uprising (yet) so I can't imagine what she would bring to Smash that Zelda doesn't. On the other hand...I just can't say no to that pretty face...and again a battle goddess would be interesting in a free for all.

Dr Kawashima: 1.3% - The Omastar invasion is on the brink of failure, but Bluepikmin's plan for Kawashima to rule is in place! Will Dr. Kawashima succeed where the fossil pokemon has fallen or will the mad doctor be zeroed out by the heroic RTC regulars? Find out on episode 98 of Rate Their Chances: "Kawashima's Problem."

Nominations:
Zero (MMX) x5

 

[Erimir]

Omastar

Rounding down since it goes below the significant digits...

Chance: 0%
Want: 0%

Palutena

Not a lot has changed since before for Kid Icarus specifically.

However, I now have a model for predicting the number of slots a franchise will get! And I ran predictions for Smash 4. Using sales (logarithm of total sales since the relation is not linear), previous slots and movesets, whether the game is a typical genre (so Zelda, Mario, Golden Sun = typical, Wii Fit, Nintendogs = atypical), or has any playable characters (in Duck Hunt and Wii Fit there isn't really any playable character), I can get about an 81% correlation with a 10-fold cross validation on either slots or movesets.

Yes, the model is surprised by Wii Fit Trainer being playable.

(I will eventually have more on that.)

Anyway, the point is that it predicts about 1.22 slots and 1.34 movesets. So that translates into about a 22-34% chance of a newcomer, I'd think. The model isn't totally accurate, of course, but I think it's a good starting point since it explains about 80% of the variation (there are, however, missing data points since I didn't put every possible franchise in there because of spotty sales data for retro and WiiWare games). Anyway, I think Kid Icarus has some other factors going for it, like Sakurai's connection and the fact that Palutena is well-suited for being a playable character. There were also some Kid Icarus cartoons Nintendo released starring Pit and Palutena, which can't hurt.

Anyway, those additional factors would make me boost it above the model a little bit for Kid Icarus, so I'd put the chances of a KI newcomer more around 40%.

Palutena chances: 38%
But Palutena isn't the only KI character. She's the prohibitive favorite though. Medusa got reduced in Uprising, Palutena got way more personality. The fact that she's completely a Nintendo creation probably helps as well, compared to Medusa being more of a modification of a pre-existing mythological figure. So there's only a small chance of some other KI character IMO. Most likely Medusa, with minuscule amounts for anyone else.

I don't see why there are so many people giving her ridiculously high ratings like she's practically confirmed or a veteran. At least Little Mac has a stage heavily suggestive of his series to boost him above what would already be decent chances. Kid Icarus is still a fairly small series (in terms of both number of titles and overall sales) - which means Sakurai will feel more reluctant to promote it more than it "deserves". Fan desire helps, which is why I'm not giving her more in line with what the model says (27%).

Palutena want: 58%
(50% = indifference)
About where it was before. She's somewhat interesting but not high on my list.

Dr Kawashima prediction: 0.2%
I'm guessing a bunch of zeroes except for a few unserious votes.

Nominations:
Dr Mario x5

 

[jaytalks]

Omastar:
Chances: 0%
Here's a good example of zero percent chance character. It hasnt even appeared as Pokeball Pokemon! No chance, and I'm sorry I even wasted the words to say that.
Want: 0%

Palutena:
Chances: 55%
I rank lower than everyone else so a 55% is good in my book. The big thing that helps her chances is that Kid Icarus was moved up to the big 8 for the E3 reveal. They could have moved up Fire Emblem or Mother or something like that, but they picked Pit and the series, bumping out Yoshi. She's already made an appearance in Smash and is probably the most likely female newcomer aside from Dixie Kong.

Want: !00%
She fits into Smash perfectly. I can see everything, from her reveal trailer to how she plays. She regularly rounds out my top 5 most wanted, and I would say she is even above Shulk for me nowadays.

Predictions: 2.35%
Nominations:
Matthew x 5

 

[YoshiandToad]

Also side note Groose how did no cuts from Brawl do? Oh wait...
2. No Cuts: 32.80% chance, 57.91% want
>57.91% want
I don't even...

It's mind boggling isn't it?

Even if we've all got one character we don't like, it blows my mind everytime I see that want percentage.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Omastar:

Likelihood: 0% - Sorry

Want:

*

Palutena:

Likelihood: 75%

Want: 65%

Dr. Kawashima Prediction: 14%

Nominations:
5x Brawl Pokémon and Mewtwo

*In case you're wondering, dancing Omastar means 100%

 

[Jubileus57]

Omastar: Likelihood: 0.000001% Not 0 because there's no such thing as "so such thing". But still.
Want: 0%. Nope
Palutena: Likelihood: 75%
Want: 85% Loved her in Uprising. She had musch more personality than many other Nintendo characters around.

Kawashima prediction: 5%

 

[Pacack]

I might want to start voting for a Rosalina revote...we have voted her before, right?

 

[Smasher 101]

I might want to start voting for a Rosalina revote...we have voted her before, right?

We haven't rated her yet, but she's very close to the top of the nominations list.

 

[Pacack]

We haven't rated her yet, but she's very close to the top of the nominations list.

Thanks. We might need to vote her, then. (Though I only would give her a 17% or so chance.)

 

[jaytalks]

It's mind boggling isn't it?

Even if we've all got one character we don't like, it blows my mind everytime I see that want percentage.

If I remember the way I voted, I was keeping in mind that all returners means less newcomers. I am more interested in newcomers than some veterans. Hence my lower want.

 

[Cheezey Bites]

I'm very anti-snake, and would feel it a travesty if he gets back in, thus my giving a very low score; all the other characters I want back though.

 

[Pacack]

I want veterans, but I'd rather have a game that feels new. I don't want Brawl 2.0.

 

[MattX20]

Omastar:
Chances: 0%
Want: 0%

Palutena
Chances: 85%
Palutena has so many points in her favor that will definitely help her chances of becoming playable in Smash 4, and she's got a great deal of moveset potential.
Want: 95%
She's one of my top 5 most wanted newcomers, along with King K Rool, Ridley, Little Mac, and the already confirmed Mega Man.

 

[YoshiandToad]

If I remember the way I voted, I was keeping in mind that all returners means less newcomers. I am more interested in newcomers than some veterans. Hence my lower want.

Ah, see that makes more sense and is a sentiment I'm not against...I just wouldn't want to be the guy whose favourite gets cut...;;(Luckily Yoshi is staple at this point.)

 

[Toxicroaker]

Omastar: Toxicroaker says 0.01100010 01101111 01101111%! (0.01) I will give you an imaginary 5$ if you can guess the reference.
Want: 0.5%

Palutena: 60%
Want: 50%

Dr. Kawashima: 0.03%

x5 Excitebiker

 

[jaytalks]

Ah, see that makes more sense and is a sentiment I'm not against...I just wouldn't want to be the guy whose favourite gets cut...;;(Luckily Yoshi is staple at this point.)

Yeah. It's Sakurai's multiplication quote about adding characters that makes me feel that way.

They would never cut Yoshi.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Omastar: Toxicroaker says 0.01100010 01101111 01101111%! (0.01) I will give you an imaginary 5$ if you can guess the reference.

Bender's Big Score?

 

[MargnetMan23]

If I remember the way I voted, I was keeping in mind that all returners means less newcomers. I am more interested in newcomers than some veterans. Hence my lower want.

Though this is respectable I honestly think a lesser emphasis on newcomers is more suitable for this game. Would you rather have a polished game with minimal add-ons or an unpolished game with a **** load of add ons. If you prefer the latter then stop complaining about brawl =P (This is not so much directed at you as it is a general rant.)

 

[Groose]

So, I have a shaky internet connection at best right now; I can't update. I'll do so as soon as I can tomorrow, OK? Sorry, guys... You know how much I want to end Omastar's day, but I just can't right now.

It's mind boggling isn't it?

Even if we've all got one character we don't like, it blows my mind everytime I see that want percentage.

I don't have animosity towards any character. I'm all for fresh experiences, though... If I want to play as a certain character, I'll do so in the game yet were in. I'd take five cuts and ten newcomers over no cuts and five newcomers any day. It's about working efficiently.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Cool, what a coincidence.
I was hoping for a longer time for rating Dr. Kawashima on Friday, but I guess Thursday will do.

 

[Pega-pony Princess]

Omastar:

Chance: 5%
Want: 0%

Palutena:

Chance: 50% Haven't played KI, but since she's a goddess and all, why not?
Want: 50%

Nominations:

Gaius x5

 

[Pega-pony Princess]

Crap. Stupid double post.

 

[Alban712]

Omastar:

Chance and want: 0% - needless to say

Palutena:
Chance: 70% - the frontrunner KI rep, but I dont't know if the series is notoriouus enough to get 2 slots.

Want: 90% - one of my most wanted newcomers

Nomination:
Rosalina x 5. The new revelation requires a mandatory round

EDIT: forgot to predict!

Dr. Ka(something) 6,4%

 

[Deleted member]

I don't have animosity towards any character. I'm all for fresh experiences, though... If I want to play as a certain character, I'll do so in the game yet were in. I'd take five cuts and ten newcomers over no cuts and five newcomers any day. It's about working efficiently.

To be honest, I think that I would be fine with some cuts. I don't want to lose characters that shouldn't be cut or characters that have no reason to get cut. (Ness, Captain Falcon, Jigglypuff, Falco, Ganondorf, Wario, Meta Knight, King Dedede, Diddy Kong; I'm not saying that they will get cut or I think that they will, but I will be devastated if they did) However, I think that there are some that I'm fine with getting cut. I am fine with R.O.B., Lucas, Lucario, Snake, and (maybe) Ike getting cut. While I have nothing against these characters and I do have sympathy those those who do main them, I wouldn't care if they did get cut.

My 100% want rating for "No Brawl Cuts" was reflective on the Nintendo All-Stars that should have been in the series for a very long time (Wario, Diddy Kong, King Dedede, Meta Knight) as well as the established veterans, but I'm fine with a few cuts. I want to see some new and unique characters that deserve to be in the game.

 

[Gunla]

To be honest, I think that I would be fine with some cuts. I don't want to lose characters that shouldn't be cut or characters that have no reason to get cut. (Ness, Captain Falcon, Jigglypuff, Falco, Ganondorf, Wario, Meta Knight, King Dedede, Diddy Kong; I'm not saying that they will get cut, but I will be devastated if they did)

I agree with you on this. There are characters that are "Timeless" to say, and they should stay permanant as fighters.

 

[DarkKry4]

Nomination:
Rosalina x 5. The new revelation requires a mandatory round

its weird. I'm detecting a pattern this year

Pauline's mini toy was the fifth unlockable in "Mario and Donkey Kong: Minis on the Move" and that game had a blue toad playable.

And Rosalina is the fifth character in the new Mario game and with a blue toad too.

And the timing couldn't have been more perfect too.

 

[Starbound]

Will also do a x5 noms for Rosalina, because the Mario 3D world announcement warrants at least discussing her.

 

[McDuckletts]

Omastar
Chance: 0.001%
Of all of the Pokemon, all 718 creatures of different types and species, why in the loving name of Christ would OMASTAR be chosen out of all of them? He was never especially popular, he didn't play any significant role in the anime, and most importantly, he's mostly if not completely irrelevant by today's standards. He doesn't have a good build for fighter either, essentially being a simple mollusk or something. This is why I stopped nominating Heracross after a while. Yeah, he's my favorite Pokemon, but he still doesn't have a good chance in Smash despite my own judgement. Some Fanboys/girls need to realize something: just because you like a character, that doesn't mean he/she/it would have a good chance unless said character is extremely popular, like Mewtwo or Lucario. In other words, USE COMMON SENSE D@MMIT!
Want: 0%
You know, this vote made me realize something. Omastar's really lame. Seriously, I don't like Omastar one bit. Yeah, his stats are pretty good and he can learn Shell Smash, but his offensive movepool is poor and I personally HATE this things design. Trust me, this thing is U.G.L.Y! He has good dancing skills though. But still, I'd take Kabutops, Armaldo, Cradilly, Rampardos, Carracosta, Archeops, Tyrantrum, or Aurorus over Omastar (I'll have Omastar over Bastiodon.).

Now to move on to the real reason you're here in the first place...

Lady Palutena
Chance: 89%
Some might say otherwise, but I feel very confident in Palutena being in the next Smash. She's one of the most popular characters and most requested characters in Japan, and I think even in the U.S. She's appeared in a very recent game and was one of the most important characters in said game. She has great moveset potential as well. Not a perfect score because Sakurai is a very humble man, not wanting to over represent his own franchises. Though, to be perfectly honest, having two characters doesn't over represent a franchise that much. Also, Sakurai hesitated on putting more Kirby in Melee due to the over representation problem, but since he's added King DeDeDe and Meta-Knight in Brawl, did anyone complain about Sakurai over representing Kirby? As far as I'm aware, no. Adding two characters is totally fine. You know what other franchise has two characters? Mother, arguably the least successful Nintendo franchise in terms of sales.
Want: 95%
Palutena is definitely in my top 3 most wanted newcomers, behind Ridley and King K. Rool. It would be awesome to be able to play as a GOD(dess)! Also, Smash needs more female characters in my eyes, so Palutena would be an excellent addition to the roster in my opinion. I don't have much else to say. Palutena for Smash 4!

Nominations
Banjo-Kazoo...
Hmm, actually...
Rosalina X5
I feel extra generous today, so Rosalina gets extra votes from me. Let's try to rate her before Syrup!

 

[moneyfrenzy]

Omastar Chance: 0%
Omastar want: Kabutops would be much cooler and better.

Palutena Chance: 70%
Want: 50%

Noms:
Rosalina x5

 

[Glaciacott]

Omastar

Rounding down since it goes below the significant digits...

Chance: 0%
Want: 0%

Palutena

Not a lot has changed since before for Kid Icarus specifically.

However, I now have a model for predicting the number of slots a franchise will get! And I ran predictions for Smash 4. Using sales (logarithm of total sales since the relation is not linear), previous slots and movesets, whether the game is a typical genre (so Zelda, Mario, Golden Sun = typical, Wii Fit, Nintendogs = atypical), or has any playable characters (in Duck Hunt and Wii Fit there isn't really any playable character), I can get about an 81% correlation with a 10-fold cross validation on either slots or movesets.

Yes, the model is surprised by Wii Fit Trainer being playable.

(I will eventually have more on that.)

Anyway, the point is that it predicts about 1.22 slots and 1.34 movesets. So that translates into about a 22-34% chance of a newcomer, I'd think. The model isn't totally accurate, of course, but I think it's a good starting point since it explains about 80% of the variation (there are, however, missing data points since I didn't put every possible franchise in there because of spotty sales data for retro and WiiWare games). Anyway, I think Kid Icarus has some other factors going for it, like Sakurai's connection and the fact that Palutena is well-suited for being a playable character. There were also some Kid Icarus cartoons Nintendo released starring Pit and Palutena, which can't hurt.

Anyway, those additional factors would make me boost it above the model a little bit for Kid Icarus, so I'd put the chances of a KI newcomer more around 40%.

Palutena chances: 38%
But Palutena isn't the only KI character. She's the prohibitive favorite though. Medusa got reduced in Uprising, Palutena got way more personality. The fact that she's completely a Nintendo creation probably helps as well, compared to Medusa being more of a modification of a pre-existing mythological figure. So there's only a small chance of some other KI character IMO. Most likely Medusa, with minuscule amounts for anyone else.

I don't see why there are so many people giving her ridiculously high ratings like she's practically confirmed or a veteran. At least Little Mac has a stage heavily suggestive of his series to boost him above what would already be decent chances. Kid Icarus is still a fairly small series (in terms of both number of titles and overall sales) - which means Sakurai will feel more reluctant to promote it more than it "deserves". Fan desire helps, which is why I'm not giving her more in line with what the model says (27%).

Palutena want: 58%
(50% = indifference)
About where it was before. She's somewhat interesting but not high on my list.

Dr Kawashima prediction: 0.2%
I'm guessing a bunch of zeroes except for a few unserious votes.

Nominations:
Dr Mario x5

As a fan of your ratings, I must express I am at a loss now that instead of pure commentary you're talking about some statistical model that I admit I find tremendously confusing.

Mostly because Sakurai doesn't follow math. We're talking about a chaotic being, so given that I miss your less math-y commentary.

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Omastar - 0%

Too much competition. Too much going against it. It has EVERYTHING going against it.

Want 5%

Meh.

Palutena - 70%

With a lot of personality and a large role introduced to her in Uprising, I see her as having a good chance, and popularity is hardly an issue for her. To be honest though, I don't know much about Uprising, so I can't explain much further for this character.

Kawashima prediction: 6.2

Only because I've noticed there are a few people around here who like the idea of him. But I personally hate the idea of Dr. Kawashima in Smash. (Inb4BluePikminlikesthispostforsomereason)

x5 Count Bleck.