Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[Opossum]

Wonder Red time!

Likelihood: 5%
I really don't see this. September would have been an apt time to show him.
Want: 10%
Never really was that interested in the red one. The other ones are cooler.

What is this...Ridley?!? Oh no, better go give the cunning god of death his dues...

Likelihood: 90%
Simple. If he was a stage hazard, Sakurai would have showed it by now. The 10% is just because Sakurai. Most wanted Nintendo newcomer in the West, noted as such in the east, and an important character in the Metroid series.
Want:100%
It's Ridley! He's my fourth most wanted newcomer.

Predicting a 2.59 for Sukapon.
Nominating Sheik x5

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Wonder Red:
No, not the pokémon trainer, the other one!

Chance: 1.5%
I give him more benefit than most flash in the pan protagonists due to his interesting styling and potential to be a really interesting character, and how heavily he was advertised. I give him far less than characters from decently popular game because, well they're decently popular, and W101 wasn't.

Want: 5%
As I said, he'd be interesting, but it would be more befitting of his games to have the W101 being an assist trophy, and I would far prefer that. Plus his game bombed, he doesn't deserve to be in smash over other characters; even Dillon who was popular enough for a second game to be made!


Ridley: 80%
There's always a chance that Sakurai says no, but at this point it seems unlikely. Not only is he one of the most requested characters in the West (where a bunch of sales are made), he's been loosely referenced in Pyrosphere stuff, and he's one of the few big hype bringers left for western audiences (We're voting another tomorrow, and K. Rool are probably it, though Bowser Jr is far more generally recognised than any of them, so could be included in the end of production reveals). We need a few big reveals nearer to the game's release and Ridley is one of the top 4 choices left for western audiences.
As for Stage Hazard... just no... Boss, maybe, and likely enough to make me question all the sense of above by 20%, but it doesn't make sense to make him a stage hazard; he's not just a hazard in Metroid, and he's been hyped up far too much for it in the Pyrosphere too.

Want: 99%
On his release Miiverse will become a pit of seething hate from the 'too bigots' and won't be fun to visit for about a month... but I have smash boards, so it's a minor issue.


Sukapon: 2.2%
I think he's ineligable (fighting game character), but others won't.


Knuckles*5
(Here he come, rougher than the rest of them)

 

[FalKoopa]

Wonder Red:
Likelihood: 2%
His game was too recent, and the game bombed. September was the appropriate time to show him off, if he really was on the roster.

Want: 0%
It's difficult to want a character you're unfamiliar with. I don't like his design much, either.

Ridley
Likelihood: 90%
To be perfectly honest, I took Sakurai's quote as a confirmation that he's on the roster. I've seen nothing to think otherwise.

Want: 70%
I want him, but he's far from the top of my wishlist.

Sukapon prediction: 4%
I'm pretty sure people are going to be really harsh on the poor guy.

Fawful x 5

 

[Jubileus57]

Wonder Red
Likelihood: 7%.
Want: 20%. He could be nice, but if we had to get a characters from Platinum Games, I'd much rather have Bayonetta.

Ridley
Likelihood: 80% (this stage hazard thing can compromize his chances a tad).
Want: 80%. I've never played any Metroid game, but he seems to have a good moveset potential.

Sukapon prediction: 1.57%

Nominations: Bayonetta x5

 

[Starcutter]

Wonder 1.01%
want: 50% played through the demo, he's a meh character. although it WAS only a demo...

Ridley: 95% yes I went there. I really don't think he's a stage hazzard. and what else would he be? a boss? HA! don't make me laugh.
Want: 95% Reeeeally far up there, but not most. mostly to rub it in my friend's face.

Suk apon THIS! - 5.6%

noms:
Ammy x5

 

[Groose]

I'm behind on the results and music sections of the OP. I will catch things up on Friday.

Wow, the Ridley re-voting will be interesting. Can't imagine he'll get a higher score than before since some people probably still believe that he's a stage hazard, even if he hasn't been shown after 10 or so Pyrosphere pictures, but whatever. I'll chime in after I get some sleep.

I expected it to knock him out of the top ten... but I'm seeing some love so far. I'm dropping my own personal chance rating a bit (I was so certain of his inclusion before), but my want rating will remain the same.

When Toad was rerated after his chances took a hit... he did better in want. Maybe Ridley will manage the same?

 

[PK_Wonder]

Wonder Red 48% - because Nintendo went so far to give TW101 its own Direct, they might have been persuading Sakurai to include him.

predict Sukapon 6%

Dark Samus x5

Edit: Ridley 80% The stage doesn't have any impact on his chances.

 

[MargnetMan23]

Nominations and prediction, yes. Ratings, unfortunately not. I've already computed them.

Oh well, that's OK =P
Wonder Red: 8% I'm sort of 50/50 on wether it's reasonably likely or no chance at all =P
Want: 70% I play the game =P
Ridley: 89% Well if he isn't a stage hazard then why is Pyroshpere such a significant stage to pick? Foreshadowing...
Want: 100% 10/10
Sukapon: 17%

Noms: Omastar x3
Bulborb x2

 

[Louie G.]

Wonder Red:

Chance: 5%
Not gonna happen. It's too early I believe, not to mention that the roster was likely finalized months before W101 was released.

Want: 30%
He seems cool, but again, I don't want Sakurai to Roy us again. We need characters that are actually really important and have proved that through time. Even new franchises like Xenoblade have had about 2 years to prove it.

Ridley Prediction: 70%
Lots of people still believe in him. I am included.

Noms:
Blaziken x5
Been playing a lot of Pokémon lately, you know...

 

[Ephecus]

Wonder Red

Chance: 4 %
The sales of his games really don't matter that much since they should've been working on him far prior to his games release if he really was to be included. However I highly doubt his chances as a playable character. He is assist-trophy material though.

Want: 50 %
I wouldn't mind him at all but he is not one of my wanted newcomers.

Ridley

Chance: 65 %
A likely newcomer but he could also be used as a boss in the adventure mode/stage hazard/assisst trophy.

Want: 50 %
Again I'm fine with him being in but I don't care about him.

Sukapon Prediction: 4.5 %

Nomination:
C. Syrup x 5

 

[Sid-cada]

Wonder Red

Chance - 7% - Yeah, his chances have mostly passed. I doubt someone this one could get in, and his chance took another plummet when his game was released without comment. He may have struck Sakurai's fancy, but I doubt him.

Want - 30% - The 101 has had my interest, and I would like to see them, but I don't think being playable suits them. I mean, c'mon, the only reason you would want to play as them is for the ginormous weaponry, and that would definitely be overpowered. Being an Assist Trophy is perfect, though.


Ridley

Chance - 80% - I'm going a pure math route here: 5% per picture of Pyroshpere + 50% base percent. This seems about right.

Want - 100% - I originally docked points for his Other M appearance, but you know what? I'm forgetting about that. Just give me him!


Sukapon Prediction - 1.25% - I don't think retros typically do well, and this is one Sakurai said explicitly not to expect.

Nominations
Dark Matter X4
Hades X1

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

Wonderful Red: 5%
Want: 55%
RIDLEY: 95%
Want: 100%
Sukapon: 4%
Nominate:
Yarne x 5

 

[Pacack]

Wonder Red:

Likelihood: 5%
His game was too recent for his own good, and his game did not do well...at all, from what I understand.

Want: 3%
Not really interested, but I'd at least try him out.

Ridley:

Likelihood: 92%
If he hasn't been shown as a stage hazard yet, he's probably a playable character. Sakurai might not do it, though. Depends on if he thinks he's viable (which he should).

Want: 87%
Definitely want him, but he's behind Pac-Man, Daitoryo, Toad, and Sukapon on my wants list (and no, not all of those characters are likely, sue me.)

Sukapon prediction: 7%
I like him, but even I can tell that he has next to no chance.

Nominations:
Daitoryo x 5

 

[McDuckletts]

Wonder Red

Chance: 45.6%

While Wonderful 101 didn't sell as well as they hoped it would, it still got lots of attention from Nintendo. Because of this attention, I think Wonder Red does have a slightly strong chance of getting in Smash 4.

Want: 2%

Meh. I've never played W101, and I probably won't for a long while, so I have no idea about his moveset potential. Something about taking a bunch of people and turning them into a hammer? I don't know.

Ridley

Chance: 68.9%

"DUH HE'S TOO BIG" arguments aside, Ridley has a strong chance of being in Smash. He's the main antagonist of the Metroid games and appeared in every installment in one way or another. Metroid isn't as popular in Japan than in the US, so that really hurts Ridley's chances BIG TIME.

Want: 98.4%

I'm a big Metroid guy and I want more Metroid reps as well as villains in Smash, so Ridley's obviously up there as one of my most wanted newcomers. While I have difficulty thinking of a good moveset for him, I'm sure Sakurai and the dev team can think of something.

Sukapon prediction: 18.4%

While I want the joy mecha in the next Smash, I don't think anyone else does. Sakurai even said to not expect him so...:/

Nominations
Banjo-Kazooie X3
Heracross X2

 

[XenothiumX]

Wonder Red
Likelihood: 5%
I was thinking that if Wonder Red was going to be in smash that he would have been revealed at the time of his game's release, since he wasn't I highly doubt he will be playable, but maybe he'll be a trophy.

Want: 15%

Ridley
Likelihood: 70%

Want: 100%
We're voting on Ridley a third time? Who ever is voting for Ridley might want to wait a bit longer because nothing has changed much since last vote.

Sukapon
Prediction: 7.5%

Nominations:
Majora's Mask Link x5

 

[Opossum]

Metroid isn't as popular in Japan than in the US, so that really hurts Ridley's chances BIG TIME.

Badumtsh.

But honestly, I don't think that matters too much. Keep in mind, Little Mac, who shares Ridley's "more popular in the West" scenario, was called a "legend" by Sakurai on the Brawl dojo. Plus, Japan actually notes how these two have notable western popularity, if Chronobound's sentiments are taken into account. But yeah, being more popular in the West really doesn't hurt Ridley too badly, in my opinion.

 

[Deleted member]

But yeah, being more popular in the West really doesn't hurt Ridley too badly, in my opinion.

Besides, weren't there cases where there were characters that were more popular in the US than in Japan that got into Brawl anyway?

 

[Smasher 101]

Wonder Red's chances: 5%
Want: 50% - Indifferent.

Ridley's chances: 90%
Want: 100% - It's Ridley.

Sukapon prediction: 3.09%

Andy x5 (Almost there...)

 

[jaytalks]

Wonder Red:
Likelihood: 5%
Wonder Red's chance peaked and fell dramatically the day his game was released. Considering that Platinum is an independent developer, Sakurai would need to have seen Wonder Red a significant amount of time before the game was released. It's not like Sakurai looks for reps by seeing the games about to be released. His research phase ended before the Wonderful 101 was released.
There's also the fact that Smash tends to promote franchises. Other than the retro adds and WTF characters, Smash has exclusively used character from ongoing Nintendo series. The Wonderful 101 sales were very bad, so I doubt it will receive a sequel, Wii U or otherwise. Maybe if it was retooled for the 3DS, but the 3DS isn't powerful enough for all of Wonder 101 characters. Out of any Nintendo published game, it might have the least chance of becoming a franchise.
Want: 90%
Anything created by Hideki Kamiya would be great.

Ridley
Likelihood: 50%
Nothing really has changed. The whole "no reveal in a month ups his chances" is a very dumb theory that's designed to confirm people's biases.
Want: 70%
I like Metroid as the lone rep, but he's my second choice after Metroid Prime (Dark Samus).

Prediction: Sukapon: 2.5%
Sakurai was pretty clear about this character's chances when Melee came out. Will enough people not know/ think Sakurai changed his mind to give the character a second chance?

Nominations: Andy x 5

 

[Opossum]

Besides, weren't there cases where there were characters that were more popular in the US than in Japan that got into Brawl anyway?

Yep. Interestingly, Pit is an example of this, where Sakurai noted that he had popularity in the west.

 

[Gam3rALO]

Yay extra Noms!

Wonder Red:
Chance: 6.5%
There is attention from Nintendo but I think it's still a little too early.

Want: 5%
Ehhh doesn't interested me.

Ridley:
Chance: 70%
Still has a high chance because it looks like there are done showing off that new stage and Ridley isn't deconfirmed yet.

Want: 88%
Please!

Prediction for Sukapon: 3.34%

Nominations
Pac Man x5
Paper Mario x5

 

[Xenigma]

Wonder Red - 5%
There's a slim chance we see Red sneaking in to promote the new game Nintendo's publishing, but really, is Platinum already so important to Nintendo that one of their characters gets to be in Smash? Personally, it seems unlikely, since Wonderful 101 came out too late for sales/critical reception to influence its possible inclusion for Smash and Platinum as a Nintendo-published developer is still a very new thing. Maybe Sakurai jumped on the idea super early or Kamiya personally asked for consideration, but both of those are a bit of a stretch. Generally improbable, if not impossible.
Want - 25% - Not what I'm looking for from Smash, but could be neat?

Ridley - 90%
I don't think Pyrosphere has significantly hurt his chances. In fact, two developments since the last rating have rather helped Ridley. First, the fact that Pyrosphere was revealed so early, yet to this day Sakurai has yet to confirm that Ridley is actually a stage obstacle despite his hinting, seems to hint that he just enjoys teasing fans about the possibility of Ridley missing the cut again (something that will make the fans all the more excited if/when Ridley is revealed). Secondly, even if he is a stage obstacle, Toon Link has proven you can both appear on a stage and be playable, so there's no saying for sure that Ridley is out if he's actually on Pyrosphere. Add in the consistently strong number of requests for Ridley since Melee and the lack of Metroid characters despite a successful revival since Prime and it would be a real shocker if Ridley was out.
Want - 50% - I'm not really a fan, but getting a character so many have wanted for so long would be awesome regardless.

Sukapon - 2.5%
I can't see him getting many serious supporters.

Nominations
Tetra/Toon Zelda x5

 

[SmashShadow]

Wonder Red: 15%
I think this depends on if Sakurai is wanting to put more focus on new series or not.
Want: 30%
I think there's still too many deserving reps left at this point for a 1 game character as of now. No doubt he'd be unique though. And he kind of reminds me of Viewtiful Joe.

Ridley: 60% We still don't know if Sakurai will change his mind about Ridley and the Miiverse comments by Sakurai don't make it any easier to figure out what he thinks about him in terms of playable.
Want: 100%
#Ridley

Sukapon: 5.1%

5x 4 DK Characters

 

[Gunla]

Wonder Red

Chances: 3%- While Platinum Games works with Nintendo a lot more now, I think it's a little too recent.

Want: 5%- I didn't like his character very much.

Ridley Concept

Chances: 62%- That size factor. People want him in, but he's just a tad huge.

Want: 70%- It's Ridley!

Sukapon: 3%

Nominating...
Majora's Mask Link (MMA Link?) X5

 

[Zhadgon]

Wonder Red
Chance: 7% sadly he is against a lot of competition to get a spot between Shulk, Isaac, Dillon, Starfy and many more.
Want: 95% one of my most wanted for the simple fact that have a unique gameplay and is a game that originate from Platinum Games.

Ridley
Chance: 99.99%
Want: 100% there is no character that could make me happier.

Prediction
Sukapon: 1.01%

Nomination
Donbe and Hikari x 5

.n_n.

 

[Spears In Smash Bros.]

Wonder Red: 10.1%
See what I did there?

Want: 55%

Ridley: I'm tired of predicting Ridley's chances. Whatever I gave him last time, I guess.

Suck Upon prediction: 6.75%

Nominate:
Kunio-Kun/Alex x5

 

[Toxicroaker]

Wonder Red (red red red red-neck): 0.1% New game, not legendary... the list goes on to long
Want: 0% New game, not legendary... the list goes on to long oh, + 3RD ****ING PARTY

Ridley: 65%
Want: 100%

Suck a pawn: 8%

x5 Chancellor Cole

 

[Erimir]

Wonder Red

Popularity: A bit early to say, but the sales figures have been disappointing. Wonderful 101 got some decent promotion and the game got pretty good reviews, but if nobody plays it that probably doesn't matter.

Design: Well... I guess it's a little like Pikmin? If they want to represent the game play that way. It's not the easiest to implement at any rate.

3rd party: He's not a Nintendo-owned character, and we know not just any 3rd party gets in. Wonder Red up there with giants like Sonic and Mega Man, and perhaps Pac-Man? Doesn't seem right to me.

Marketing: I feel like if he were going to be in the game, they would've revealed him by now to help hype the game. They want the game to sell. It was one of the "big titles" coming out in the second half of 2013, following Pikmin 3. Helping to boost its sales would help the Wii U and it needs it. I think secrecy about the roster would lose out to marketing in this case. He doesn't even have to be ready to be shown in playable form - he'd just need screen shots and a trailer.

It's pretty clear that the roster reveals are being used as part of Nintendo's marketing* so Wonder Red not being revealed back in September basically rules him out for me.

Wonder Red chances: 0.5%

Wonder Red want: 30%
Meh, I'd rather see plenty of other 3rd parties. I played the demo and I couldn't really get into it.

Oh... I need to say more?

Ridley

I'm just going to talk about what has changed.

In my opinion... nothing much really. I don't see why people think the Pyrosphere matters so much for Ridley. What does the Pyrosphere tell us that we didn't already know?

• The Metroid series in Smash will be taking many of its cues from Other M. Wait, we already knew that because of Samus's new look. As of yet the Other M influence has not been shown to be more than superficial, however.
• There will be a stage in a setting that's associated with Ridley. Many important places in Metroid are associated with Ridley. Norfair was Ridley's turf too. This doesn't tell us that Ridley's a stage hazard or a boss or playable. What I would assume, however, is that if Ridley was playable, his "home stage" would definitely be the Pyrosphere.
• Sakurai did make a comment about Samus seeing an old enemy at any time. It's doubtful he was referring to anyone but Ridley, given the setting. But it's still a pretty vague statement. If Ridley were playable, he could make that statement. If Ridley were a boss and you fought him on the Pyrosphere (which is possible), he could make that statement. If Ridley were a stage hazard, he could make that statement. If Ridley were not in the game at all, he could make that statement (just "setting the mood" about the Pyrosphere, rather than hinting at anything).
• I will concede, however, that the statement is more consistent with two of those things: Ridley being a stage hazard and Ridley being a playable character. It definitely is the least likely that Ridley's not in the game at all.

There has also been some less Metroid specific information. Namely, I'm a little bit more optimistic about the roster size given the pace of character reveals. This doesn't affect any single character by a large amount though.

In the end, I rate him about where I did last time.

Ridley chances: 71%

Ridley want: 100%
Duh.

Sukapon prediction: 1.7%
It'll be... low. I'm just throwing a number out randomly.

Nominations:
Sheik x5

*I know, we didn't get a Pokemon yet this week. However:

1. There are still two more screenshots this week. I don't think anyone will say it doesn't count as part of the pattern if a Pokemon is revealed this week, or even next week.

2. Just because it's being used for marketing doesn't mean that they HAVE to use it. Even if we don't see a Pokemon reveal this month, that doesn't mean it was wrong to think it was more likely to happen. The reveals for Olimar, Luigi, Toon Link and Sonic being so close to the releases of Pikmin 3, Mario & Luigi: Dream Team, Wind Waker HD, and Sonic: Lost Worlds can hardly be dismissed as a coincidence. The timing has some flexibility there as well (as seen with Sonic).

Point is: Sakurai not being perfectly predictable =/= OMG SAKURAI IS SOOO UNPREDICTABLE

 

[LoneKonWolf]

wonder red - 1.01%(might as well do it huh)
chances aren't good for him, he came out recently, his game didn't do the best, and is probably under the bar on smash's horoscope.
want - 65%
would be cool
Ridley - 50%(yes someone can rate ridley that low)
while with the pyro updates still lacking that supposed "rival" that sakurai has told us about and with all the obvious withholding of information about this "rival" it doesn't take much to think that he may be trolling us. but still though with the difficulties of implanting him in and the obvious showing that they are putting ridley as a stage hazard which could still be fake. I see it as being a 50/50 chance
Want - 100%
does someone even to ask?
sukapon - 8.18%
I'm just throwing a random number out here
Nomination: no brawl cutsX5

 

[NickerBocker]

Wonder Red
Chance: 0.5%
While his game is extremely fun, his hopes are not high. doesnt have alot of influence on Nintendo, and his game didnt make as big a splash as expected.

Want: 60%
Any moveset I have imagined for him is interesting and extremely unique

Ridley
Chance: 80%
Hes the most recurring villain, and 2nd most recurring character other than Samus herself. Metroid is an important franchise. It deserves a villain

Want: 95%
A purple dragon that can spit fire and fly around? Yes please

Sukapon: 6.1%

Nominations:
4 DKC characters x5

 

[DukeofShorts]

Wonder Red chance: 1.01%
Not legendary enough… YET!

Wonder Red want: 0%
Not now but maybe in two more Smash Bros. games.

RIDLEY chance: 80%
Seems to have a ton of fans on this site and I'm assuming on other sites too.

RIDLEY want: 100%
In the top four best Nintendo bad guys, and three of them are already in Brawl.

Sukapon prediction: 1.4%
Never really heard of Sukapon.

Groose x5

 

[Zhadgon]

Wonder Red
Chance: 0.5%
While his game is extremely fun, his hopes are not high. doesnt have alot of influence on Nintendo, and his game didnt make as big a splash as expected.

Want: 60%
Any moveset I have imagined for him is interesting and extremely unique

Ridley
Chance: 80%
Hes the most recurring villain, and 2nd most recurring character other than Samus herself. Metroid is an important franchise. It deserves a villain

Want: 95%
A purple dragon that can spit fire and fly around? Yes please

Sukapon: 6.1%

Nominations:
4 DKC characters x5

Don't forget it is from the space and is a pirate too XD.
.n_n.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Wonder Red
Chance: 7%
Wonderful 101 seems to be a game that Nintendo have tried to promote as a new franchise. Sakurai said during Brawl there were no series that debuted after Pikmin that had any potential as a fighter. This time, Wonderful 101 is a game starring 101 characters with fighter potential, but chief of which would be Wonder Red.

Unfortunately going against him is his release being quite late on in Smash development, his debut not doing quite as well as Nintendo had hoped and whilst his moveset potential is certainly interesting I'm wonder how the 3DS would be able to handle that many heroes on screen at once to create the Wonder Fist(Is that the name?)

Want: 65%
You punch people...with a fist made of other people. THAT is ****ing awesome.
Not higher due to me not actually playing his game yet.

Riddles
Chance: 65%
The crack debacle has many people questioning whether Ridley is turning up as a playable, stage hazard or as a boss. I'm leaning more towards playable but I'm being conservative about it.

Want: 50%
I only want Ridley in so I never have to see another Ridley for Smash topic come up ever again. Ever.
Equally though I'm completely indifferent to his inclusion.

Sukapon prediction: 12.4%
Decently popular old franchise character on these boards, although popularity pales in comparison to Takamaru.

Nominations:
Andy X 5

 

[Glaciacott]

Wonder Red
Chances 4%
I think people overestimate just how relevant this character is. We are now after all the Wind Waker and Pokemon exes and whys, and the world has begun to forget about Wonderful 101, as sad as that may be. Likewise, it'll forget about Wonde Red. To me, he's this decade's Viewtiful Joe.

Want 15%
Would be cool, but also ellicit a huge, indifferent Meh

Ridley
I believe at this point everything that needs to be said about Ridley has been said and the Pyrosphere hasn't changed anything really. Except proving how much of a troll Sakurai can be.
Chance - 86%
Want - 100%

Predictions
Sucky Pun - 7.04%
His chances will take a hit from that repeated bit about Sakurai saying he's not interested, even though I myself don't know the source of that comment.

Nominations
x5 Rhythm Monkey
Once again, not enough time to provide a video >_<

 

[Groose]

Extremely busy day today, guys. I don't think I'll have time to update today when it comes to it.

By next week, my updates will be back on track. Just extremely busy this week.

 

[Swift Fox]

Wonder Red
Chance: 20%
Want: 100% - He'll become best friend with Captain Falcon!

Ridley
Chance: 10% "TOO big"
Want: 50% - I'll be surprised a little if he actually got in as a playable character, tho, that would be pretty cool but at the same time I'd find it a little awkward to have him extensively downsized just to become playable against smaller Smash fighters.

 

[colder_than_ice]

Wonder Red
Chance: 3% - His game was only recently released and a move set would be very difficult to incorporate.
Want: 89% - I own a copy of Wonderful 101, and it's a great game. I wish more people would give it a chance.

Ridley
Chance: 78%
Want: 54%

Sukapon prediction: 4%

Nominations: Aeron x5

 

[No Control]

Wonder Red chances - 5%. Really, really small. A fairly minor game and he wasn't announced at the game's release. He won't help to sell Smash, so why would Sakurai go to loads of effort to get him in the game?
Wonder Red want - 20%. Pretty meh for me, really.

Ridley chances - 80%. This is the second time there has been a Ridley stage in two straight games. Half the playable characters can't even boast that! I'm coming round to the view that Sakurai has probably finally taken the fans into account this time around.
Ridley want - 100%. Awesome character, great moveset potential, and he's an alien pirate dragon. What's not to like?!

Sukapon prediction - 10%. Pretty obscure character really.

Nomination - DLC x5

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Wonder Red:

Likelihood: 7% - He's simply too new I feel.

Want: 5%

Ridley:

Likelihood: 75% - By now it's extremely obvious that the Pyrosphere quote means nothing. He is not a stage hazard. However, for a moment I was hit by the reality that he isn't a lock, and no newcomer is. I rate him 10% lower than last time, because it has dawned upon me that he isn't that close to being guaranteed, and that goes for every newcomer. I can't imagine a newcomer who only has a 15% chance of not being in, so rating him 85% last time was absurd.

He is still the newcomer with the most support in the west though, so that of course helps him immensily as always, plus he is the only viable choice for Metroid, a series which desperately needs more representation, since he's the only other timeless character in the whole series.

Size isn't a problem, and everybody that thinks so can go read my latest post in the Ridley thread on why it isn't.

Want: 100% - My favorite video game character, no need to explain I suppose.

Sukapon Prediction: 5% - Past comments from Sakurai probably makes people lean towards him not having a chance.

Nominations.
5x Four DK Characters

 

[Xhampi]

Ridley
Likeliness : 75 %
Ridley's chances have already been talked to death so I will not do that here. The only things against him is the lack of poppularity of the Metroid series in Japan and if Sakurai feel that Metroid doesn't need a another playable character.

Want : 100 %
One of the two characters who can make me go "I NEED THIS GAME AND I NEED IT RIGHT NOW", no ammount of characters like Mewtwo, K Rool, Little Mac and other Megaman would hype me more for this game than a playable Ridley.