Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[Groose]

Wolf (Star Fox)
86.08% chance
80.36% want

Falco's good... but Wolf is bettah! Kind of. Wolf lost to Falco by about 8% in chance... but thrashed that annoying parrot by about 5% in want. Not bad from that guy people like to cut from their prediction rosters, eh?

Lucario (Pokemon)
81.90% chance (previously 65.42%)
72.36% want (previously 68.71%)

Lucario improved dramatically in chance since the confirmation of Mega Evolutions... but this failed to drastically improve his want. He's still trailing fellow Pokemon Mewtwo by 8% in chance and 16% in want. The aura is strong in this one... but perhaps not strong enough.

Today we have a lord in the arena... but he's not from Fire Emblem. He is Tom Nook, infamous landlord and tycoon. Will the swindler have what it takes to earn a spot in Smash? Please leave your chance and want for Tom Nook today.

WARNING! CHALLENGER REAPPROACHING! Ah, Toad. Last time we rated him... we hadn't seen him in the game. But now we have... just not in playable form. He's back in Peach's moveset, but does this deconfirm him? After all, Sakurai stated the same day that Peach's moveset wasn't finalized... and there is more than one Toad (such as the Blue Toad starring in the upcoming 3D World). Still... does Toad have an actual chance? Please rate Toad in chance and want.

Tomorrow we'll be rating Eph-----.... no, seriously. We're actually rating Ephraim tomorrow. Please predict how Ephraim will fare in tomorrow's competition. Spears in Smash Bros. wins five noms today.

I'd like to remind you guys that according to our semi-new schedule, there are no updates on Sundays. So, I'll see you all on Monday. *Plays Pokemon*

 

[SchAlternate]

Please predict how Ephraim will fare in tomorrow's competition. Spears in Smash Bros. wins five noms today.

Talk about fitting.

 

[Deleted member]

Tom Nook
Chance: 11%
He's a famous merchant that a lot of people seem to know from Animal Crossing. However, I am unsure if Sakurai would feel the need to include him. Though, he does have some potential and he does have some support. I'll give him that. Animal Crossing is also a rather popular series, so I can see the series warrant a second rep. But, I'm unsure if that character would be Tom Nook.
Want: 55%
Mostly because I want to see what he would do.

Toad
Chance: 7%
I don't necessarily think that being Peach's special totally de-confirms him, but I think it hurts his chances. He is really popular, has support, has moveset potential, and has major seniority over the other most wanted Mario character, Bowser Jr. These things could save Toad and I think there is still some light left. After all, the game is still in its beta stage, so anything could change at this point with the characters.
Want: 60%
I rather have Bowser Jr., but I'll root for this underdog! I like underdogs anyway.

Ephiram Prediction: .81%
I'm gonna rate low on this. Just not too sure.

Nominations: Little Mac 3x, Captain Rainbow 2x

I might edit this post later with more of an explanation. I just have the Pokemon jitters right now!

 

[Toxicroaker]

Tom Nook: 10% I think that Villager will be the only person that will be from Animal Crossing
Want: 0% I do not want two representatives from such a lame series Xo

Toad: 5% I seriously doubt that Sakurai would add someone that is already in a moveset. But it could be like R.O.B. also being an enemy in SSE
Want: 0% I am a Bowser Jr. supporter and I don't want to have Toad countering Toad anytime soon.

Ephraim: 7%

x3 Chancellor Cole
x2 Ridley

 

[SmashShadow]

Tom Nook: 7% I highly doubt he'd add two Animal Crossing reps in 1 game.
Want: 30% Mehhh

Toad: 7% Going by the trend we've seen in Smash, with Peach using Toad again it doesn't bode well for him sadly. People can argue as much as they want about there being more toads but seriously, all toads are practically the same. If Sakurai was going to add Toad he wouldn't have kept Toad in her moveset. The only hope is that her finalized moveset doesn't include him.
Want: 85% I really like Toad, not as much as Junior, but still.

Ephriam: 1.11%

5x Wonder Red

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Tom Nook - 15% Tom Nook, in my opinion cannot differ that much from Villager, and though he is fairly popular, I don't see him happening. He was a part of the trailer and possibly a part of the stage, and it's unlikely Sakurai would've shown him at that time only to reveal him later on.

Want - 30% Eh, I guess he could be fun.

Toad - 10% I honestly don't see Toad as likely at this point given how Peach already uses one in an attack. It could easily be a different, generic Toad, but all in all it's not the same case with Toon Link and ST Link on the stage. Toad actually has a function, while the Toon Link on the stage appears to be nothing more than part of the backround with no real effect on the stage.

5x Ashley.

 

[Zhadgon]

Tom Nook
Likelihood: 50% would Sakurai think that Animal Crossing could have two potentially new comers to Smash with different movesets and be unique in their own, my answer is YES, both characters Villager and Tom Nook could be different and entertaining at the same time, does Animal Crossing deserves two reps? Two words... Hell yes (like it or not for now Animal Crossing has become bigger than StarFox, Donkey Kong, Kirby or even Metroid in sales and in popularity for the casual market and even for the not so casual, so yeah I consider that it has won their spot in Smash and Sakurai could think the same).
Want: 85% for me the Animal Crossing reps could become the ones with the most unique moveset and gameplay in Smash for the simple reason that thinking about a moveset for say characters could become difficult but at the same time rewarding because you need to be creative in using the tools and gameplay of Animal Crossing and translate it to Smash.

Toad
Likelihood: 15%
Want: 15%

Ephraim
Prediction: 3.27%

Nomination
Donbe and Hikari x 5

.n_n.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Tom Nook Chance: 25% Definitely has the highest chance of being the next AC rep, but if certain conditions happen such as no cuts, I believe Tom Nook won't happen.

Tom Nook Want: 100% I love Tom Nook so much!

I can't rate Ephraim because I never played Sacred Stones
x5 Dr. Kawashima

 

[MargnetMan23]

Tom Nook: 9% Villager mostly kills his chances
Want: 50% *shrugs*

Toad: 5% Kinda doubt Sakurai would keep Peach's toad move especially in such a polished looking form if Toad was already a planned character
Want: 10% I'd rather not...

Ephraim prediction: 1.45% Lyn isn't happening, get over it. Stop requesting important characters from older FE games (that aren't vets) so often it's setting you up for disappointment.

Nomz:
Omastar x3
Bulborb x2

 

[moneyfrenzy]

Tom Nook
Likelihood: 50% would Sakurai think that Animal Crossing could have two potentially new comers to Smash with different movesets and be unique in their own, my answer is YES, both characters Villager and Tom Nook could be different and entertaining at the same time, does Animal Crossing deserves two reps? Two words... Hell yes (like it or not for now Animal Crossing has become bigger than StarFox, Donkey Kong, Kirby or even Metroid in sales and in popularity for the casual market and even for the not so casual, so yeah I consider that it has won their spot in Smash and Sakurai could think the same).
Want: 85% for me the Animal Crossing reps could become the ones with the most unique moveset and gameplay in Smash for the simple reason that thinking about a moveset for say characters could become difficult but at the same time rewarding because you need to be creative in using the tools and gameplay of Animal Crossing and translate it to Smash.

Toad
Likelihood: 15%
Want: 15%

Ephraim
Prediction: 3.27%

Nomination
Donbe and Hikari x 5

.n_n.

pretty sure donkey kong and kirby both have far more sales than animal crossing

 

[colder_than_ice]

Tom Nook
Chance: 0% - I really don't thing Animal Crossing will get another character.
Want: 2% - I don't want to spend half my time playing SSB4 saving up bells to pay off my rent.

Toad
Chance: 4% - I believe I gave him 54% last time.
Want: 95% - I'm still hanging on to hope.

Ephraim prediction: 3%

Nominations: Wonder Red x5

 

[Erimir]

Individual Animal Crossing games sell as much or more than those series at the moment. Since 2008, City Folk sold 4.5 million. New Leaf has sold 5 million so far, probably that will increase as more 3DS's get sold and Christmas, etc. So, since 2007, Animal Crossing has sold about 9.5 million games.

Donkey Kong Country Returns sold 6 million, some other DK games sold a few million. Since 2008, DK and Animal Crossing are about tied actually, if you count Mario vs. Donkey Kong as a DK game. Otherwise, Animal Crossing is beating DK. Of course, Donkey Kong series is way more important historically, and has had huge sales over its lifetime (~70 million, 30 million for DKC alone), which also is a good reason to include more DK characters (potentially much larger fanbase, if you think people who played the original DKC games are going to buy new Smash games).

Metroid has only sold about 3.5 million since 2007, Kirby about 6.5 million. Star Fox obviously has not sold much what with the not having non-remake games in a while.

However, these numbers don't take into account Virtual Console sales and such. It also doesn't say which series is more profitable overall, since it doesn't include merchandise or development costs. I assume Animal Crossing games were relatively cheaper to develop than, say, Metroid Prime 3 or Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze.

Anyway, it would be fair to say that Animal Crossing since Brawl has been about as big as Donkey Kong, and bigger than Kirby or Metroid at this point.

Tom Nook:

Basically, Villager has taken most of what his moves would be. That's really his biggest obstacle. Two slots for Animal Crossing right away also strikes me as not likely, although it's possible (Marth and Roy happened, but Roy was also a clone, so...).

Tom Nook chances: 5%

Tom Nook want: 45%
Meh.

Toad

The reveal of Peach seriously hurts Toad. While Sakurai did make a trololo statement about Peach's moves potentially changing, it's not obvious if he was referring to Toad or just speaking more generally. Anyway, it's possible that Toadsworth could still take his place in Peach's moveset, but it seems quite unlikely. I already thought Mario series getting a newcomer wasn't a sure thing.

Toad chances: 3%
It could happen. But it probably won't.

Toad want: 60%
Toad is one of the more deserving characters out there. Nintendo really ought to have given him his own name in English translations. If he was known as Kinopio in the US, I'd probably think his chances were higher.

Ephraim prediction: 2%
I dunno who this is. There are so many FE characters. People probably should recalibrate on the basis of how many FE reps they expect to see, IMO.

Nominations:
5x Sheik
I wanna get the veterans done with, then I'll probably stick to concepts for a while.

 

[LoneKonWolf]

Tom nook - 15.02%
Tom nook does have some things in his favor, for first in the trailer tom nook is looking at the letter dropped by the villager
View attachment 3263whether this is foreshadowing or just a visual is debatable, but the way how its shown does make it look like it is hinting at something, second out of every screen shot we got of the animal crossing stage has shown a wide variety of animal crossing's supporting cast, but not one has shown a picture of tom nook on the stage, this could be just a fluke but for animal crossing most supporting character not to appear on its own home stage is kind of strange. while these may be some good things for tom nook he has two horrible downfall, the villager reveal and the uncertainty of a second rep. the villager's reveal outright lowered his chances greatly and the unknown second rep doesn't help much. sakurai has changed his mind about the villager ,but we don't know if that it or not. personally in the end of it all tom nook just has low chances and will have them till the final roster gets complete.
Want - 95%
I would actually be pretty happy to have tom nook be playable, especially if he has one of the fan made move sets in his support thread
Toad - 5%
Toad has fallen on hard times now, he has been shown to be in peach's move set and have left most people for him to be disconfirmed, except for the die hard toad fans that keep on going about how peach's move set could change, or another toad could get confirmed. in fact the only thing stopping me from giving him a 0.1% is because one of them told me to keep an open mind in the roster prediction thread
Want - 0%
I'll feel like he would be a wasted slot
Ephraim - 3.74%
once again I don't know how to predict this one
Nomination's Skyward Sword ZeldaX5 because whynut

 

[Smasher 101]

Tom Nook's chances: 5% - He's the most likely choice if we get a second Animal Crossing rep. Having said that, I really don't think we'll get two in this installment.
Want: 50% - I can live with or without him.

Toad's chances: 5% - Yeaaaaah.
Want: 10% - Never really was that interested in Toad being playable.

Ephraim: 2.10%

Andy x5

 

[Forde]

Tom Nook
Chance: 5% I highly doubt we would see him in there, but is still the most likely out of other AC characters
Want: 15% Meh.

Toad's Chances: 5% Not really seeing it happening.
Want: 5% Never liked him, wouldn't want him in SSB.

Ephraim: 25%

No nominations today.

 

[Arcanir]

Toad
Chances-10% Oh Toad, Sakurai was not nice to you. This is the third time that he's been shown to be Peach's B move and that doesn't bode well for his chances. He's not completely out, especially with Sakurai's comment giving a ray of hope, but it's still not looking good for the poor little guy.
Want-45% I don't mind either way, but he's not on the top of my list for character wants.

 

[Spears In Smash Bros.]

Tom Nook: 4.5%
There is already one new Animal Crossing rep, and his moveset encompasses everything that is Animal Crossing. Toom Nok could use Tanooki Mario's abilities to fight, but otherwise he's completely redundant. He isn't even all that greedy, people just ostracize him because he's a moneylender.

Want: 27.5%
I'll admit, I kind of lowballed my prediction of Nook's chances, plus the Tanooki abilities could be cool. But I'd surely appreciate it more if everyone's favorite dog waifu secretary showed up instead.

Toad: 0%
He is a move, not a man.

Want: 0%
lol

Ephraim prediction: 3.33%

Nominate:
Isabelle x3
Lucina x2
Paper Mario x5

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Tom Nook chance=1%

Tom Nook want=0.01%

Toad chance=3%

Toad want=2%

Ephraim prediction=5%

Nomination=5xNeku and Shiki

 

[Cheezey Bites]

(like it or not for now Animal Crossing has become bigger than StarFox, Donkey Kong, Kirby or even Metroid in sales and in popularity for the casual market and even for the not so casual, so yeah I consider that it has won their spot in Smash and Sakurai could think the same).

Animal Crossing: 7 million sales
Star Fox: 11.5 million sales
Metroid: 14 million sales
Kirby: 33 million sales
Donkey Kong: 53.994 million sales

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_video_game_franchises
Not the most trustworthy of sources, but when none of your franchises match up I think it's worthy of note.


It has casual popularity, there's no denying that, but it's far more niche than you think.


Tom Nook:
Chance: 0.3%
I think 10M is about the right place to consider a second rep, and it's not there... Now Star Fox has 3 due to Sakurai's personal love of the series, and need for semi-clones, but AC just isn't big enough to warrant 2 when the main character is present, and the one requested. That said if there is more time put to Animal Crossing, which it may deserve, it won't be for Tom Nook, it'll be for an Animal Crossing Villager Girl model with the same move set as the boy.

Want: 0%
Villager was great, don't sully the awesome of that trailer with a half baked character that doesn't deserve a spot.


Toad:
Chance: 1%
I'm not against generics (like Pikachu or Slime... and Jigglypuff too I guess) being characters, but toad is particularly generic, even in his playable appearances he's there because they don't have enough characters that move the same and can use the same power-ups (Wario eats Garlic, not Mushrooms). Neither is he a mascot for the series (that goes to Mario) or Jigglypuff.. who gets a plus because it's Smash Bros, and it's Jigglpuff... Plus he's a move, so ya...
Sakurai will be aware of his popularity, but I don't think he deserves a slot on that alone when he has little other merit, and Jr as competition.

Want: 0%
Sorry toad, your supporters are in another castle.


Ephraim: 10%
Sacred Stones was a lot of people's first FE game in the west inflating his chances much like Lyn, however Ephraim isn't an Assist Trophy, so I don't expect it to be quite as high...



Knuckles*5
(Born on an island in the heavens, the blood of his ancestors flows inside him)

 

[Ephecus]

Tom Nook

Chance: 3 %
What would his moveset be?

Want: 20 %
AC doesn't need 2 reps.

Toad
Chance: 25 %
Arguably his blue form still has some chance.

Want: 40 %
He's pretty generic, but I'd rather have him than Bowser Jr. provided that he has at least an interesting moveset.

Ephraim Prediction: 2.5 %

Nominations:
5x C. Syrup

 

[No Control]

Animal Crossing: 7 million sales
Star Fox: 11.5 million sales
Metroid: 14 million sales
Kirby: 33 million sales
Donkey Kong: 53.994 million sales

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_video_game_franchises
Not the most trustworthy of sources, but when none of your franchises match up I think it's worthy of note.


It has casual popularity, there's no denying that, but it's far more niche than you think.

You're looking at this completely wrong. Since Animal Crossing has been a major franchise (I'd say from back in 2006 when Wild World was a major hit), or even from when the Gamecube edition (the first worldwide edition) came out, Animal Crossing has outsold Kirby, Metroid and Star Fox comfortably. Looking at the situation from the late 80's/early 90's is unfair because then Animal Crossing loses 10-15 years instantly (also, those figures all seem very conservative but that's irrelevant to my point).

Anyway...

Tom Nook want: 70%. Actually still think he has a lot of moveset potential, with the slingshot, furniture-type items from AC and bells to be incorporated as well as his tail. Also, as AC is so big now I think it deserves 2 reps, and he'd make a great second character.
Tom Nook chances: 40%. The trailer did seem to hint at his inclusion to me, and he is a popular character from a popular series. As I said above, if he is in, he will likely be a secret character. Also, the fact he doesn't appear on the AC stage bodes well for him (of course, he could be part of Villager's FS, but we'll see).

Toad want: 85%. Big name character - a Nintendo icon - with lots of games to draw a moveset from, and would love to fight Ganondorf* or Ridley* with him.
Toad chances: 25%. This would be 10% or under if Sakurai hadn't included that comment about movesets changing on the Peach update post. I really think that was directed towards the Toad thing. I mean, it is very possible that Toad is in and they haven't yet updated her moves - then again why announce Peach before Toad if that is the case? Sakurai is a troll, I guess.

Ephraim prediction: 5%. So fed up of these unlikely FE characters being suggested.

Nominations:
Sheik x5

 

[BlitznBurst]

Tom Nook chances: 30%. A second AC rep isn't out of the question as at this point it's one of Nintendo's biggest franchises, but the Smash fanbase and the Animal Crossing fanbase are two completely different groups.
Want: 50%. never played animal crossing

Toad chances: 60%. First of all I want to say peach's special doesn't mean a god damn thing. Sakurai felt the need to point out that her moveset isn't finalized. Not Luigi, who had loads of people clamoring for some changes from his recent games. Not Olimar, who has two new Pikmin at his arsenal. But Peach.Peach having the Toad special is no more notable than her having the move in Brawl. That said though, I honestly don't think his chances were that big to begin with. He has multiple other Mario reps to contend with, all of similar importance and popularity, and also have more moveset potential that doesn't have to rely on pulling go-karts out of their asses.
Want: 20%. Of all the characters you people have to support, why the ****ing mushroom

Ephraim prediction: 7%. I have no idea

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

Tom Nook: 0.5%
Want: 0%
Toad: 0%
Want: 50%
Ephraim: 7.5%
Nominate:
Yarne x 4
Ridley x 1

 

[YoshiandToad]

We're rating the two most famous Nintendo Shopkeepers in a single day? Nifty. With Anna, I guess that makes 3 in a week.

Tom Nook:
Chance: 20%
If two Animal Crossing Reps happen; Nook is the most obvious choice. Hell, most presumed he WOULD be the Animal Crossing Rep, seeing how Villager was customizable. With Villager revealed though, and drawing more everything Animal Crossing into his moveset, a second Animal Crossing rep only has about as much chance as a second Pikmin rep at this point. It could happen, but it's not the most likely.

Want: 65%
He's very much the face of Animal Crossing to me, seeing as again; Villager could look like anything. Nook might scam me a lot, he might overcharge me, he may belittle me, but these are actually good reasons for me to want him in Smash. To beat the ever loving crap out of him for all those times.

TOAD:
Chance: 25%
Toad's chances for me seem to alter by the goddamn day. What an emotional rollercoaster for a Toad fan. On the one hand; ah crap he's Peach's terrible counter move again. On the other "Peach's moveset may be subject to some alterations" and there's no obvious tie in character for 3D world now Peach was used up for Mario's Anniversary. If not for these two things, I'd have dropped the issue like a hot potato, but there's still a few things that don't add up here.
Suspicious.

If we're judging Toad on his own merits; he pretty much outdoes everyone in iconic look(He is the most well known Nintendo character not yet in Smash. Not Ridley, not K. Rool, not Palutena, or Little Mac, Toad is the one everyone around the world recognises) as well as seniority and more than likely game appearences. He does have moveset potential despite the haters saying so (He's a mushroom man who lives in a world where mushrooms are powerups. Work it out.) and certainly a lot more to work with than any of the Star Fox reps or Falcon.

Want: 10000000000000000% 100% for the sake of the game.Toad's one of my favourite characters to play as in any Mario Spinoff game, SMB2, NSMB Wii series(although admittedly he only plays the same as the Mario bros here) and I dare say he'll be my favourite in 3D world due to his speed.
Toad's been around since I was a kid and I really think it's about high time he came out and got some revenge on the Princess for her abuse over the years of Smash.
Everyone's got a character that could make Smash 4 be the best one yet for them, and Toad is mine.

Ephraim prediction: 1%
Roy, Chrom, Lucina, Anna, Lyn, Robin or bust for the third rep with far more chance of the first two. I'm fairly sure everyone here thinks similarly.

Nominations:
Syrup X 5

 

[ShinRPGamer]

Tom Nook

Chance: 6%: Animal Crossing may be huge for the casual crowd but for the Smash crowd to have 2 reps from AC might be stretching it a bit too far.
Want: 25% indifferent to AC but no more reps from that series please.

Toad

Chance 10%: Him being Peach's counter again doesn't completely joss him, though his chances still aren't very good to begin with.
Want: 20%: I want Waluigi as the unlikely 5th Mario rep before him.

Ephraim 7%: Okay for characters we know don't have a good chance of being playable, can we make a prediction if their going to be in the game in some way, shape or form because days like these are going to get boring real fast.

 

[Sid-cada]

Tom Nook

Chance - 2% - For this game, I don't see any series getting more than one character. Villager mostly crushed him, badly.

Want - 30% - Eh, I think Villager is enough. Not too crazy over Animal Crossing.


Toad

Chance - 10% - While his chance plummeted due to the reveal of Peach, I'd still call him the most likely Mario character.

Want - 50% - Indifferent. Don't care all that much.


Ephraim Prediction - 1.25% - Another random older Lord to most people.

Nominations
Hades X4
Dark Matter X1

 

[DarkKry4]

Tom Nook

Chance - 1%

Want - 0%
we have villager so no thanks

Toad

Chance - 0%
people make alot of inane arguments (looking for any loophole) about how its possible to have him still be a move and a playable character but i personally don't see it happening. I have a strong feeling the producers don't want him to be more than what he is in the game already.

Want - 0%
his design is stupid and his voice annoys me.

Ephraim prediction - 3.5%

x5 Pauline (Donkey Kong)

 

[the smash nerd]

Bowser Jr

Likelihood: 40% He is one of the most iconic characters in the Mario games

Want: 60% I Want Bowser Jr in or Waluigi. [yes, Waluigi]

 

[LoneKonWolf]

Bowser Jr

Likelihood: 40% He is one of the most iconic characters in the Mario games

Want: 60% I Want Bowser Jr in or Waluigi. [yes, Waluigi]

um . . . . . bowser Jr's day was back in day 13, we're on day 78 now, we're rating tom nook & toad.
try to keep on tabs mate.

 

[the smash nerd]

um . . . . . bowser Jr's day was back in day 13, we're on day 78 now, we're rating tom nook & toad.
try to keep on tabs mate.

Ok

 

[Opossum]

Tom Nook time!

Chance: 1%
Villager pretty much represents the series as a whole as far as movesets go. There's not much else for Nook to do unless you grasp at straws.
Want: 0%
Meh.

Toad Time Two, Too!

Chance: 10%
This is me being generous. Sure, Sakurai noted that "the moveset isn't set in stone," but keep in mind the roster is pretty much decided at this point.
Want: 78%
Toad's cool.

Predicting a 0.47 for Ephraim.

Nominating Sheik x5

 

[the smash nerd]

Tom Nook
Chance 50% If two Animal Crossing Reps happen; Nook is the most obvious choice.
Want: 50% Villager pretty much represents the series as a whole

 

[Zhadgon]

Animal Crossing: 7 million sales
Star Fox: 11.5 million sales
Metroid: 14 million sales
Kirby: 33 million sales
Donkey Kong: 53.994 million sales

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_video_game_franchises
Not the most trustworthy of sources, but when none of your franchises match up I think it's worthy of note.

You were saying?
Animal Crossing - 24.46 million sales
http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/?name=Animal Crossing

Star Fox - 11.21 million sales
http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/?name=Star Fox

Metroid - 17.60 million sales
http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/?name=Metroid

Kirby - 33.61 million sales
http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/?name=Kirby

Donkey Kong - 63.44 million sales
http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/?name=Donkey Kong

Maybe I was wrong in saying that Kirby or Donkey Kong didn´t have so much sales but my point is still fine, why? If you compare the number of games of Animal Crossing against any of this franchises you will see that with less games it is now competing with them or even above them, so yeah like it or not Animal Crossing is a huge series it has a huge following and is growing. So tell me again in which part I was wrong?

.n_n.

 

[NickerBocker]

Tom Nook
Chance: 20%
He has a possibility, but its not too great. Vullager covers the basis of AC, but another character could be interesting.
Want: 40%
Meh...

Toad
Chance: 40%
Being generic is not helping. Being in Peach's moveset definitely doesnt help, but I mean, its not impossible.
Want: 10%
I would much rather have Paper Mario and Bowser jr before him.

Ephraim: ehhh... 1.2%
I liked him in Sacred Stones, but there's so many other characters that are better. Id say Eirika is more likely.

Nominations:
4 DKC characters x5

 

[BluePikmin11]

I like how they are lots of mehs for Tom Nook wanting. It just goes to show Tom Nook definitely has potential.

 

[Aqua Rock X]

Tom Nook

Chance: 15% - I suppose their is a chance but I really think the Villager is all we're getting.

Want: 40% - Meh, I have no attachment to Animal Crossing. I think the Villager looks cool to play as with an interesting moveset, but that's about it.

Toad

Chance: 1% - I strongly, STRONGLY, doubt he's happening.

Want: 0% - I said it before and I'll say it again, Toad is fine as Peach's neutral special. I'm sorry Toad fans but that looks to be all he's getting.

Ephraim Prediction: 4.5% - Fire Emblem "reps" other than Lyn, Lucina, Chrom, Roy, Anna, Robin, and (possibly) Micaiah, are hardly discussed anymore.

Nominations:
Rhythm Monkey x2
Fawful x2
Victini

 

[Erimir]

Animal Crossing: 7 million sales
Star Fox: 11.5 million sales
Metroid: 14 million sales
Kirby: 33 million sales
Donkey Kong: 53.994 million sales

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_video_game_franchises
Not the most trustworthy of sources, but when none of your franchises match up I think it's worthy of note.

The source is fine as far as how trustworthy it is, but the problem is that it doesn't say when its numbers are from, and they're not all from the same year, and that's important to know.

Those Animal Crossing numbers, if you follow the citation, are from 2007 and woefully out of date at this point. Its biggest selling game, Wild World, sold 11.5 million copies by itself. Source: http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/sales/software/ds.html

New Leaf and City Folk each sold around 4.5-5 million. I can cite sources for these numbers without using vgchartz.

However, it's probably not fair to use New Leaf's sales except for the time from the Japanese launch til E3 since Sakurai probably wouldn't have taken those into account. However, it was pretty clear from the start that it was going to sell very, very well just like Wild World did. It probably will eventually do about as well as Wild World, particularly if the 3DS continues to sell at a high rate.

 

[Cheezey Bites]

You were saying?

I stand corrected.

That said given what DK has been through (Everything between country 3 and Returns was pretty much balls, barr Mario Vs. Donkey Kong which is different, and hardly a DK game by smash standards) it too is growing, at least back to it's older popularity, since Retro got a hold of it.
Kirby is also worth noting is basically the testing ground of Nintendo, his games tend to sell poorly due to the significant differences between them as HAL try out new game design ideas... it's risky, and few people can be bothered to keep up.. heck, a platformer where you can fly infinitely is already a bit of an experiment back in the first dreamland games, so I think he's more important to Nintendo than the sales figures alone.
I also said in my post I don't think Star Fox deserves 3 characters, but they're there, the space animals are a huge part of smash, and they shouldn't be removed.
Metroid, or more precisely, Ridley-wise it's all about fan appeasing, and they're a vocal bunch...


Back to AC:
Maybe it deserves a second rep then, but even then I think the Girl Villager would be a better choice for more AC work... I mean, Tom Nook's just the guy you buy stuff from, the game is about the player character and the friends you make in the village, and there's certainly not enough slots to fit them all in...

I think if there was actually an obvious choice, and not just a ball-less (ie. just an animal, no mythical powers) tanuki chosen because there should be another an animal crossing rep, I'd be up for it, but there isn't as far as I'm concerned...

 

[Starcutter]

Nook: 30% I think there is enough things in AC to have 2 reps, and tom nook is just the second banana we need/
Want 80%

Toad 20%
want 60%

fire emblem guy #207 - 5% send him with the rest.

Noms:
Amerastasu (did I spell it right?) x5

 

[Cheezey Bites]

I can't tell if you're joking, so I shall correct you:

Okami Amaterasu