Predictions And Calculations - Long Read (Subject to Edit)

[gtkdltk007]

Note for Mods: (Mods, I understand that this has been states by many others, but I'd like to create a post about this. If you think this is that redundant, then do as you wish. However, I put a lot of effort into this and would not like to see it removed.)

Stages

So far, as of November 9, there are 17 confirmed stages. Between those stages, there have been the following amounts of days:

Battlefield – Delfino Plaza = 10 days
Delfino Plaza – Yoshi’s Island = 11 days
Yoshi’s Island – Lylat Cruise = 10 days
Lylat Cruise – Bridge of Eldin = 14 days
Bridge of Eldin – Smashville = 7 days
Smashville – Rumble Falls = 10 days
Rumble Falls – Skyworld = 2 days
Skyworld – Castle Siege = 8 days
Castle Siege – Warioware = 29 days
Warioware – Pokemon Stadium 2 = 6 days
Pokemon Stadium 2 – Battleship Halberd = 6 days
Battleship Halberd – Shadow Moses Island = 20 days
Shadow Moses Island – New Pork City = 13 days
New Pork City – Pictochat = 7 days
Pictochat – The Summit = 9 days
The Summit – Norfair = 9 days

Average Days Between Updates – 10.68 days

Stages by Month:
May = 1
June = 3
July = 4
August = 2
September = 2
October = 4
November = 1 as of Nov.9

Average Stages Per Month – 2.6 excluding November

Based on these calculations, I predict the next following days to be stage unveilings (however you never know. The days between Castle Siege and Warioware was 29, while Rumble falls to Skyworld was 2):

Monday, November 19
Wednesday, November 28

Franchises Confirmed w/o a Stage – Sonic

I personally believe that every character will have their own stage. In light of this, the characters that still have yet to get their own stage are: Diddy Kong (Rumble Falls = DK, Pikachu (Pokemon Stadium = Pokemon Trainer, or vice versa), Mario (explained below), Sonic, King Dedede, Kirby, Zelda, Bowser, and Peach.

Possible unveilings: In the Nintendo Conference trailer shown the same days as Sonic’s appearance, a small section as shown showing Squirtle doing his up-b. In the lower right corner, you can clearly see a dead tree, and the top has a moon. It also is purple. In light of these things, it can only be one of two things: Luigi’s Mansion, or Ashley’s Mansion.

Also, we still have not heard about the Mario Kart themed stage. Assuming this is Mario’s “home turf”, Isle Delfino is someone else’s. Bowser Jr., perhaps?

Characters

So far, as of November 9, there are 23 confirmed characters, including Zero Suit Samus. Between character updates, there have been the following numbers of days:

Mario – Link = 0 days
Link – Pit = 2 days
Pit – Pikachu = 13 days
Pikachu – Kirby = 0 days
Kirby – Fox = 4 days
Fox – Samus = 4 days
Samus – Wario = 5 days
Wario – Zelda = 5 days
Zelda – Bowser = 8 days
Bowser – DK = 9 days
DK – Zero Suit Samus = 7 days
ZSS – Yoshi = 5 days
Yoshi – Ike = 8 days
Ike – PT = 12 days
PT – Peach = 4 days
Peach – Diddy Kong = 5 days
Diddy Kong – Meta Knight = 14 days
Meta Knight – Ice Climbers = 9 days
Ice Climbers – Snake = 7 days
Snake – Lucas = 10 days
Lucas – Sonic = 9 days
Sonic – King Dedede = 15 days

Average amount of days between updates: 7.045

Characters by Month:

May = 2 veteran, 1 newcomer
June = 5 veteran, 1 newcomer
July = 3 veteran, 1 newcomer
August = 1 veteran, 3 newcomer
September = 1 veteran, 2 newcomer
October = 0 veteran, 3 newcomer
November = none as of Nov.9

Average amount of updates per month: 3.83

At this rate, it looks tough to say, but it looks like Sakurai has been unveiling around 3 characters a month, whether they are newcomer or veteran. Three of the 6 months had 3 character unveils, 2 had 4, and one had 6. However, don’t look for 6 character updates in a month again. If this trend were to continue, there would be approximately 10 more characters that would bee unveiled. 33 Characters doesn’t seem right. However, if there are 6 updates a month up until February, we’d have around 38. Sakurai hinted at 35-45. So, this is up in the air. However, the next character to be confirmed in my mind is a no-brainer: Captain Falcon. With 3 straight newcomers in October, I don’t think Sakurai will make it 4. Plus, there are only 3 more starter characters from Melee that have not been confirmed: Sheik, Ness and Falcon. Sheik at this point is completely unknown; her return is in the air, although an interview with Eiji Aounoma told us that she was back. Ness situation is also up in the air with Lucas, but Captain Falcon is a shoo-in, due to 1: being in both previous games, 2: fan base, 3: Samurai Goroh as an AT, proving that the F-Zero franchise will return, and 4: if Goroh isn’t playable as many assumed, than who is from F-Zero? I think you can expect him to be updated on the Monday of next week. That’s right Monday. Why? Because it would have been 20 days since the last character update, and the week of November 9th saw few good updates. A new video, Gray Fox, and Lucas’ special moves were special, but the Fire Emblem theme, Norfair, previous items, and Grab and Throw experienced veterans already knew or found out about at E 4 All. So, look towards this Monday, because it might just be the day.

Also, discussing a post, I fell that Capt. falcon will be confirmed before G&W because Sakurai seems to be reconfirming starter chaarcters from Lelee, and is probably going to talk about him before G&W.

Characters left unconfirmed:

Captain Falcon – all signs point to a return.
Ganondorf – a character as notable as this must definitely return. He was mentioned in an interview with the creator of the Legend of Zelda series as slated to return. However, it is most likely his moves have been revamped, to possibly include a sword. This would be done in light of the fact that Sakurai wants no clones.
Luigi – also slated to return. One rep at E 4 All also spilled the beans on a video very casually, without even realizing it. It is under the E4All Video thread. Also, he can seriously be made original, with the addition of the Poltergust. Plus, he has been in since the first game.
Falco – if he does come back, he would have to be heavily revamped. It seems like a 50/50 shot.
Marth – ."CHANGED OPINION" - Math, out of all of the remaining Fire Emblem swordsmen, has the largest shot to make it in, including himself, Roy, Sothe, and Sigurd, but not including the Black Knight. His popularity deifinitely helps.
Roy – if Marth doesn’t return, don’t expect Roy. Plus, there have been 2 more male sword-wielding Fire Emblem characters since Marth, Sigurd and Sothe. If either joins, then he’s probably gone. Roy's fan-base isn't sa strong as Marth's. Also, Roy's father, Eliwood, has bigger chnaces than him.
Mewtwo – I say yes. He is original, and the Pokemon series could use a villain character. He is very original, so I think yes, he’s in and should be in, albeit with a few changes.
Pichu – gone. A clone of Pikachu that hurts itself. Expect a no-show for Pikachu.
Mr. Game and Watch - returning. Not only was he the most original character, but, the so-called Icon Theory, which I blieve up unitl number 14, proves his return.
Ness – the Lucas situation is tough. However, Ness has been mentioned in updates before. In fact, he’s been mentioned in every Lucas update. Could he be in? Maybe. He was in the first 2, but was slated to be replaced in Melee. Chances are small, not slim.
Sheik – well, I can’t say. He was mentioned an interview with the creator of Zelda as being in Brawl, so there’s hope. We’ll just have to wait.
Dr. Mario - according to Gimpyfish’s Brawl impressions, Mario has been made stronger and better, much like the Doc. Expect a no show fro this clone.
Young Link – he is definitely gone, as a clone of Link. However, he could be replaced with the Cel-da Link, using his trademark set of moves.
Jigglypuff - coming back. JIgglypuff is very orginal, with her own moveset, not copied by others. Seeing how she has been in the previous two games, I don't see why she wouldn't come back. Pokemon representation shuld be up, and Jiggs should definitely represent.

CHARACTER REPRESENTATION:

I have compiled a list of the characters who I think will be in Brwl based on completely logical theorem. There are no crap names here.

WANTED NEW CHARACTERS:

Who I think could be in Brawl, from their respective franchises:

Mario Franchise:

Confirmed: 3
Most Likely To Return, Not Confirmed: 1 (Luigi)
Wanted: 1

Bowser Jr. – with his rising popularity, I don’t see why the little rascal can’t be in. While his appearances have been less than memorable, he is a rising star in the Mario series. He has appeared in Sunshine, Hoops 3 vs. 3, New Super Mario Bros, and Galaxy. His design could be based off of his Sunshine model, maybe using his paintbrush as a weapon. Also, he has a large chance of being in because if Dr. Mario does not come back, and assuming Luigi is in, then the Mario franchise would have fewer representatives than Melee. Odd, don’t you think?

Zelda Franchise:

Confirmed: 2
Most Likely To Return, Not Confirmed: 1 (Ganondorf)
Wanted: 2

Wind Waker Link (Cel-da Link) – with 2 Links in Melee, you might think, why do I need another one? Well, the thing is, I clones are being removed, then Young Link is getting the axe. Wind Waker Link could be his replacement. His move set is rather different than the Link from Twilight Princess, and he could use moves from Waker or Hourglass.

Midna and Wolf Link – another Link? Yes, because Midna is just that friggin awesome. Her move set would be much different than anyone else. If she rode on Wolf Link’s back, then Link could use his move set of biting for his standard attacks, and Midna uses magic for the special attacks.

Pokemon Franchise:

Confirmed: 2
Most Likely To Return, Not Confirmed: 2 (Mewtwo, Jigglypuff)
Wanted: 1

Lucario – people keep saying that the later generations of Pokemon aren’t getting any love, especially when it comes to being represented in Brawl. Well, I think if they have a ton of Pokemon based on the 4th generation, than why not a character? Lucario is probably he most famous of the new Pokemon due to his new movie, and can have a move set full of claw swiping, energy firing goodness.

Star Fox Franchise:

Confirmed: 1
Most Likely To Return, Not Confirmed: 1 (Falco)
Wanted: 1

Krystal – yes, many people don’t like her, but Smash needs more female presentation. Krystal could make an interesting fighter, using a staff as her weapon of choice. And, she has recently gone up ion the popularity ratings, in both good and bad ways.

Metroid Franchise:

Confirmed: 2 (including ZSS)
Most Likely To Return, Not Confirmed: All Have
Wanted: 1

Ridley – Ridley, belonging to a franchise that isn’t highly regarded in Japan, still gets props for them, being one of the highest ranked characters ion Sakurai’s Japanese polls. He would fit in Brawl, with a cool move set involving gliding, swiping, and fire-breath. Some say he’s too big. Lies! Bowser is much bigger than he is in Brawl, so they shrunk him down. Pikachu is less than a foot tall, and he’s as big as Mario! C’mon… there is room for this dragon.

Fire Emblem Franchise:

Confirmed: 1 (Ike)
Most Likely To Return, Not Confirmed: 1, maybe (Marth)
Wanted: 2

Black Knight – there aren’t enough villains in Brawl, and the Black Knight would make one hell of an addition. He would be a slow swordsman like Ike, boasting great power, and some magical abilities. His demand is high among fans, clamoring for the evil Knight to join.

Micaiah – there aren’t enough female characters in Brawl, and Sakurai has noted this. Micaiah could be original in the fact that she is a magic wielder. Yes, there are other magic wielders, but she could really sell copies of Radiant Dawn.

Donkey Kong Franchise:

Confirmed: 2 (Donkey Kong, Diddy Kong)
Most Likely To Return, Not Confirmed: All Have
Wanted: 1

King K. Rool – in a game where good goes against evil, why not get as many villains as possible for Smash? KKR could make for another interesting villain, utilizing his great weight for smashes and charging, and throwing his crown and cannonballs. He also has been in every major Donkey Kong game.

Retro Franchises:

Confirmed: 2 (Pit, Ice Climbers)
Most Likely To Return, Not Confirmed: 1 (Mr. Game and Watch)
Wanted: 1

Takamaru – why has it been that every Ninja character has been an Assist Trophy? Well, maybe they already have a ninja character - in Takamaru. He appeared in one Japan-only game, but his legacy has lived on. He was one of the most requested characters on Sakurai’s poll as well.

POSSIBLE NEW FIRST PARTY FRANCHISES:

Pikmin Franchise:

Captain Olimar – my most requested 1st party character, Captain Olimar is atop my wish list. His popularity is undoubtedly high. It is also rumored that Pikmin 3 is in development for the Wii. His move set could be based around his slapping technique, his ship, and of course, Pikmin. I however, don’t want to see a Pokemon Trainer type of thing. Captain Olimar should be in the action, throwing Pikmin and other stuff.

Golden Sun Franchise:

Isaac – I don’t know much about hi, but from what I’ve heard, he’d be friggin sweet. He has a move set based around a sword, and elemental magic, something that could be new for Brawl. I say, why not?

SLIGHT CHANCE AT NEWCOMERS:

Earthbound/Mother Franchise:

Confirmed: 1
Most Likely to Return, Not Confirmed: maybe not even Ness
Wanted: 1

Claus – it is my belief that every franchise should have a villain representing, and Claus could be another one. He would utilize his bombs and energy sword, and could peak interest for Mother. However, he is one of the least likely choices of mine, and will probably not make it in.

ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE: ( ONE CHARACTER FORM MARIO, THE OTHER FROM ZELDA )

Paper Mario – there already is one Mario, and you might yell at me for wanting more Links, but I don’t really see Paper Mario making the cut. He’d be really original, but, I really just don’t see it.

Zant – not that many people really like him, although he could really have his own move set. He has swords, purple energy beams, dash attacks, floating, lots of moves, but I just don’t see him representing.

WANTED THIRD PARTIES:

3rd Party Franchises:

Confirmed: 2 (Sonic, Snake)
Most Likely To Return, Not Confirmed: NONE
Wanted: 5

Simon Belmont – hell yes. My most wanted third party character, based off of a franchise that has lived and thrived on Nintendo consoles throughout its entire history. It is easy to think of how Simon could work, using his whip for smashes, and throwing his knife, crosses, holy water and axes for specials.

Megaman – some say he’d be a clone of Samus. I say, he won’t. Sure, give him a charge shot, but throw in his other moves like his buzzsaw thrower, and all of his other moves, and he could be original.

Leon S. Kennedy – in having the greatest Gamecube game, a scary as hell N64 game, and a great remake on the Wii, there is no denying resident Evil’s presence. Leon should get a spot, being a Snake-ish character, using some explosives, but having the martial arts skill that he has, which sort of looks like Falco’s move set.

Rayman – GAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHH! The scream of the rabbids is heard on this selection. Rayman could be absolutely perfect, utilizing his trademark flexibility, and his moves from Rayman 2 – The Great Escape, and Rayman Raving rabbids. Lum tossing, plunger shooting, helicopter ears, fast punching, there is no denying that Rayman could be great for Brawl.

Geno – even though only appearing majorly in one game, Geno is one of the most famous characters to be wanted in Brawl, but no be in Brawl. He was on Sakurai’s poll, and somehow, through only Super Mario RPG, he has managed to survive. He would utilize a heavy projectile game, using all of his old moves.

NO NEWCOMERS WANTED:

Yoshi Series:

Confirmed: 1 (Yoshi)
Most Likely To Return, Not Confirmed: All Have
Wanted: 0

There is no one inside the Yoshi series that could also act as a fighter, except for Kamek, who I believe will be an Assist Trophy.

Kirby Series:

Confirmed: 3 (Kirby, Meta Knight, King Dedede)
Most Likely To Return, Not Confirmed: All Have
Wanted: 0

Everyone I wanted from Kirby has arrived, in Meta Knight and King Dedede. I’m happy with this.

F-Zero Series:

Confirmed: 0
Most Likely To Return, Not Confirmed: 1 (Captain Falcon)
Wanted: 0

Really, I wanted Samurai Goroh, but now he’s an Assist Trophy. Black Shadow could be cool, but he would be an exact clone of him, or, in simpler terms – Ganondorf.

Wario Series:

Confirmed: 1 (Wario)
Most Likely To Return, Not Confirmed: New Franchise
Wanted: 0

I’m good with him. Waluigi? Ashley? They’re good for assist trophies.

Considering all of this logical analysis, the possible number of characters for Brawl would be:

Confirmed: 23 (including ZSS)
Should Return: 8
Wanted: 16
Very Unlikely but Wanted (not included in Final Number): 3

Total number wanted using logical Prediction and not including the very unikely but wanted: 47, with those 3, it would be a nice even 50.

 

[Youko]

I suppose I can let it slide on my end for a while. Nice job, it is a good deal of work, and the character breakdown is relatively solid.

...Except Ness is so gone. And you forgot Jigglypuff.

 

[Raptorbite]

Well-thought-out and some good statistical backup, I give this topic a "YES!"

(You could probably tell already, but I'm hoping Monday is a double-update with C-Falc and his special moves.)

 

[lookatthatbaconsizzle]

Nice work. I hope the character revealed on Monday (if it is) is G&W though. If you really think he is coming back, that is. Many people have speculations.

 

[Aryman]

I like the math behind this. Average days between updates and average updates per month are decent metrics. 6 characters a month now seems very unlikely, but maybe the updates will continue after the game has been released.

Also, couldn't the next veteran be Game&Watch? I don't see why not.

 

[gtkdltk007]

Thanks for the props everyone. By the way, sorry Youko for forgetting Jigglypuff. I'll put my impressions on her right away!

 

[Joshua368]

You forgot poor Jigglypuff.

Edit: Beat.

 

[gtkdltk007]

Sorry everyone. Jigglypuff is commented on. Also, Game and Wacth could be the next rep. I aslo don't see a reason fro him not beign the next confirmed character. However, I feel that the starter characters form the previous games will be shown before the unlockabales.

 

[brawl1994]

nice work, i did the # of days between characters once, but that was a while ago

 

[amost]

aah I never noticed the squirtle stage before! nice!

 

[lukintosh]

Nice research..

 

[MajinSweet]

I would really like them to get the Falcon update out of the way. I know he will be in Brawl but, it just bugs me.

 

[Symphony X]

Good work. I like how you did the averages. I have a feeling we will be seeing 33 character updates total before launch. I don't think he's gonna tell us all of the characters, at least I hope not.

 

[C00P]

The Mii's Should definitely replace G&W if anything. They would be a much more original character. Simple moveset but you could play as yourself.... I like to hope^_^

 

[Suska]

I personally think that we're only going to get the starter character, with the exception of 3rd party. I think all the unlockables are gonna be kept secret until after launch, much like with the Melee release. This would explain the lack of veterans, we know will come back, such as Jigglypuff and Luigi. Both of which who have been unlockable since the first smash.

I think will get a few more character updates till the Japanese launch. Maybe 5 more starters and the last 3rd party character. But thats just my opinion.

 

[SirPenguin]

A couple of things.

Don't just focus on the numbers. For example, yes there has been 2.6 stages a month, and we might be long overdue for one, but notice that each world only has ONE stage assigned to them so far. Just one. The only one without a stage now is Sonic. Does this mean we're going to get Sonic's, then we'll start seeing doubles? Does it mean we'll only have one stage revealed to us per series until release?

Also, for characters, while there a lot of vets still needing confirmation, every last one of them has been a "secret" character in one of the two games. In fact, the only vets confirmed have been starters. This leads me to believe he'll either NOT reveal any secret vets, just like the last games, or he's waiting until another newcomer or something.

Good research, but you can't just focus on numbers.

 

[2.72]

Nice job. I'll comment on a few of the characters.

Marth – if Marth doesn’t return, don’t expect Roy. Plus, there have been 2 more male sword-wielding Fire Emblem characters since Marth, Sigurd and Sothe. If either joins, then he’s probably gone.

Marth currently looks like he has pretty good chances. One of Ike's costumes strongly resembles Sigurd, which is not a deconfirmation, but makes Sigurd look like he has less than wonderful chances. I can't see Sothe getting in, he's just not that popular. Marth, on the other hand, was a popular character in Melee, was the first FE lord, has a DS game (remake, admittedly) coming up, and is very well recognized.

Roy – if Marth’s not in, Roy’s not in. The same thing applies to Roy as Marth. Also, he is clone of Marth, or vice-versa, I ever fully understood.

I don't understand exactly what you're saying here. Can you clarify? I highly doubt that they will both be in, although you seem to be implying the opposite. Marth has a much stronger following and has appeared in both more games and now (with the DS remake) more recent games. I doubt that he'll make the cut, although Sakurai may surprise me.

Mewtwo – I say yes. He is original, and the Pokemon series could use a villain character. He is very original, so I think yes, he’s in and should be in, albeit with a few changes.

I don't think that this is going to be a popular opinion, but I agree whole-heartedly.

Mr. Game and Watch - returning. Not only was he the most original character, but, the so-called Icon Theory, which I blieve up unitl number 14, proves his return.

The icon theory is hardly proof. Strong evidence, perhaps, but not proof. It's possible that someone just grabbed all of the melee icons from wherever they were stored electronically and copied them over to the brawl page. That being said, I think that he's going to get in.

 

[gtkdltk007]

It is my belief that if Marth makes it in, than Roy still has a chance. Roy's popularity is not as high as Marth's, so I believe that if Marth does make it in, there is still as hot for Roy. My logic is kind of hard to explain, so sorry for the weird explanations. I do believe that if Sothe or Sigurd make it in, then Marth and Roy have almost no shot. I don't think it's possible that Ike, Marth, Roy, Sigurd, Eliwood, Sothe, and maybe even Hector, Micaiah, and the Black Knight all represent Fire Emblem. That's 9 characters for one franchise. Maybe 4, no more. It would probably be Ike, another swordsman, the Black Knight, and maybe Micaiah to add a female cast member.

As for someone else' stage argument, I partially agree. However, we know of Mario Circuit and Delfino Plaza, both Mario stages. So, it is possible that we'll start getting doubles soon. Maybe Sonic will be held off, who knows. But I understand your statement.

Also I do believe Marth ahs the biggest chance of all the remaining swordsmen, outside of the Black Knight.

 

[Jmax]

The updates are Extremely sporadic. Predicting updates to exact date would only mean you had a lucky guess. There is definitely no pattern, not on a day by day basis anyway. Maybe a certain amount of updates per week (ie 3 chars every other month).. Other then that.. it's random

 

[King_Dedede]

I like gdtkldk's logic, but this mostlikeyly will not be spot on, considering the prettey much almost already got the same number of starter characters then all of the characters combine in the old game.

 

[NastyMcMean]

all i am hoping for is that the next update is crazy, i am getting galaxy on its release (pre-ordered) and i am going to try not to look at any updates until brawl is released, so when the Challenger Approaching screen pops up in the shape of megaman i can drop a turd nugget in my pants!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Deleted member]

You forgot Dr.Mario lol.

Eh, I dunno about Sothe. He is kidna popular, but I doubt any other Tellius characters will appear. Some of my best mates want the FE reps to be Ike, Micaicah, and the Black Knight. That's effing crazy!

Each FE world should get only one, in my opinion.

 

[san-romanov]

You really worked a lot on this thread and It is quite different to others similar, so this thread doesn't deserve to be closed.

 

[gtkdltk007]

You forgot Dr.Mario lol.

Eh, I dunno about Sothe. He is kidna popular, but I doubt any other Tellius characters will appear. Some of my best mates want the FE reps to be Ike, Micaicah, and the Black Knight. That's effing crazy!

Each FE world should get only one, in my opinion.

Actually, I didn't forget the Doc. He's in there.

 

[Bajef8]

nice list! it supports everything i think about all the updates incliding who i think the returning vets are.

 

[Chaosblade77]

Interesting list, and I agree. Capitan Falcon is probably the next veteran we will see, it's only a matter of time.

Marth will also be in, I have no doubts there.

As far as others returning, my thoughts are basically:

Ganondorf (almost guaranteed)
Falco (high)
Jigglypuff (fairly high)
Game and Watch (probable)
Mewtwo (probable)

Any others will be no shows.

 

[gtkdltk007]

Well, I have fully updated my wishlist section. Check it out, and post your replies and thoughts!

 

[TheMagicalKuja]

*eyes on this topix*

Not a bad assessment.

 

[Bli33ard]

Intriguing!

My late night read before I go to bed has done me well! Now to get 4 hours of sleep only to find that I've actually overslept and it's Monday. Imagine that... going to bed on Friday and waking up on Monday. HELLZ NO. Off-topic, but hey.