Hey all, thanks for the offers to help. I'll let you all know when the project gets started. Like I said, defense first. Here's a few thoughts though:
1. We'll have to test everything with DI, since most people at EVO level competition will know to DI away from the feared death combos.
2. There's a lot of alternate conditions to consider. Nair combo starter, dsmash combo starter, platform extensions... etc. They'll have to be categorized and tested individually.
3. Rage. It'll likely have to be estimated, but using an easy condition (like... no DI dthrow combo) should yield an adjustment factor that could be used as a rough rule of thumb for the others. The phenomenon itself could probably use more definitive testing, but that's a whole other research project.
4. Limited Combos. Stuff like the dsmash combos on fast fallers or the various paralyzer lock setups. Also, nair to flip kick, or dsmash to nair to flip kick.
What about frame synced things such as nair on shield is that at all possibly a way to make hitting people's shields safer? I guess like you hit their shield at the same time your landing and get to jab pretty much as soon as you hit it?
Frame syncs happen because your character still falls during attacker hitlag. This phenomenon, however, is simply not present when you hit someone's shield. So... frame syncs on shield are not possible. Here's something that is possible:
Nair to flip kick option select:
Input: Nair as close to the ground as possible, flip kick quickly after the nair input.
Result 1: Normal nair or nair on shield. This yields... nair. That's it. The normal hitlag + landing lag combination will erase the flip kick input.
Result 2: Frame synced nair. This yields nair into a buffered flip kick. This makes the nair to flip kick combination work at substantially lower percents.
Notes: This makes the prospect of trying for a flip kick after nair much safer. However! There is a sort of 3rd result:
Result 3: Whiffed nair. This yields a flip kick with your opponent at full advantage.
So, in the incarnation that I have layed out here, it's still somewhat risky if you didn't hit your opponent at all. I'll continue to work it out and see if there isn't something better that can be concocted (like the boost kick triple option select video I posted a while back).
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This is turning out to be a big research dump. Some is likely not new, but oh well. This is what I've been working on, and trying to get frame-data-based evidence to back up.
I'm continuing my research on flip kicks and have been really trying to understand ledge cancels. I confirmed that the nair you get out of ledge cancelled flip kicks is indeed a result of the buffering system. If the kick input is hit 10 or fewer frames from your ledge cancel, the game will automatically use that input as reason to buffer a nair. So, edge cancels should be done a little bit earlier to prevent that (note: I tried to use a buffered platform edge cancelled flip kick nair to set up a guaranteed frame sync... but even fast falling on the first nair frame doesn't get you to the ground fast enough. Oh well. Would have been cool).
I have also found that the various methods to prevent flip kick momentum (c-stick + control stick in opposing directions, or kick in then immediately hit the outward direction) are not viable when buffering the kick. I got curious because buffered kicks are high enough to punish ledge-height (ish) bouncing fish. If you miss, however, you fly into the void.
Ledge cancels also lead to Hype Kick III. Which is an intense ledge setup to yield multiple opportunities to edge guard a ledge-snapping opponent. Here are the steps:
1. Stand on stage at a distance appropriate for a ledge cancelled flip kick.
2. Perform the ledge cancelled flip kick at a timing you believe will hit the 2-frame vulnerability window
2a. If you hit that, congrats, they're likely dead.
3. Ledge cancel
4. Turnaround side B.
4a. If you ledge trump your opponent, release the ledge (down or away) and back air.
4b. If your opponent is out of jumps or is at high percent, congrats, they're likely dead.
5. Ledge release (down), jump, nair.
5a. Since tether grabbers have a minimum ledge hold time of 0 frames, you will make it in time to punish ledge attack, ledge roll, and normal stand.
5b. Free nair can lead to a modified ladder combo, or a flip kick. Congrats on the free damage and/or death.
5c. In the case of a ledge jump, you may be able to ledge jump boost kick. I haven't tested that.
So yeah. It's a fun one! I've pulled it off exactly zero times. I think it might be useful against cloud, with this not-snap friendly recovery.
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Lastly, I've been looking at paralyzer locking. At 29% on Cloud (adjust for weight on others), you can nair and fire a small paralyzer shot for a chance at a lock if they don't tech. If they fail to tech, do this (includes startup steps):
1. Nair.
2. Small paralyzer shot
3. Fox Trot
4. Dsmash
5. Grab (buffered!)
6. Down throw
7. Up air
8. Jump (gap closer)
9. Boost Kick
Without survival DI, this kills. With survival DI, this still deals substantial amounts of damage. The getup animation from a lock continues even if you hit with down smash, but when done correctly (I counted in 1/4 frame advance mode) your foe only gets 1 frame to do something before the grab comes out. Only frame 1 invulnerability will prevent the grab, and most characters do not possess that.
Here's the big issue: the initial nair --> paralyzer shot. This is why it's a situational mixup. It's not even because of the dependence on the failed tech, there are other holes. If they DI toward you, they yield themselves enough air time to jump away. If they DI away from you, they get away from the paralyzer shot. You MAY be able to switch the fox trot and paralyzer shot and still make the window, but that requires more testing. If that were true, the only non-tech escape would be to DI IN and jump.
I'm also looking at prattack setups (forcing a fall from a platform), but only paralyzer causes that, and it's already a very situational projectile.
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Lastly: footstools.
My investigation is far from complete, but it doesn't look great. I tried doing low-to-the-ground footstools to flip kick (since that cancels upward jump momentum), but the flip doesn't reach the ground fast enough (~29+ frames, when the footstool flop is ~26 frames long). I also knocked an opponent prone and flip jumped them to see if it would jab lock and it doesn't. The idea came from
this tweet which demonstrates the potential for bury-property moves to infinitely lock someone. So my idea was to cause a lock, flip jump to it, jump on the character, land, do something.
Note to self: instead of testing with an arbitrary knockdown, try nair, paralyzer shot, flip jump.
Anyways. As the note implies, I'm unsure of that result, and it requires more testing.
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So, I accidentally hijacked that. Uhh. Enjoy! I'll be sure to update when I start the combo characterization project!
-Tuen
nonetheless that seems super cool! From what I can tell this "reeling" animation is the animation of your character spinning, that often happens when you're sent flying at high percents. But in this case it happens with low knockback moves... And I'm guessing it's untechable because the game never planned for you to be in this spinning state and hit the ground soon after? Idk. I can't tell why it may happen and since its chance based it seems, no one likely knows. But I'll take a look at some things with it and see if I can replicate today