Ok lets talk about this Smash Direct

[TheZyzyva]

So just a day and a half out, finally, from FP5 announcement, and Im just as excited as anyone else for it. Now, Ive done a lot of thinking about this (my job offers plenty of time for mind wandering), but I want to hear from others who they think it will be, and why; some mostly concrete reason they will be included beyond, 'because I really like them.' Dont get me wrong, I love wishful thinking, but I would like to avoid that here if possible. Now if your wishful thinking can be justified, then by all means, carry on! But if youre predicting Master Chief because you like Halo, maybe reconsider. Thats all I ask.

That said, here is, off the top of my head, some of the 'facts' we know about FP5, to help make/break characters consideration.

A: Nintendo presented Sakurai with a list of characters for him to choose from.
On the subject of DLC, Nintendo asked Sakurai to pick characters he could incorporate into Smash. So FP5 is still a Nintendo choice and not a Sakurai favorite, so keep in mind that their selection likely has business interests at heart and wont be another Piranha Plant. Terry is an outlier here but the other 3 made business sense for the N.
This I feel is the single biggest determinant because what Nintendo knows and is planning internally is years ahead of what gets announced. Games take years to make; Smash characters take 6 months (according to Sakurai). Remakes/ports/remasters could easily coincide with FP5, since Nintendo plans that years in advance. Waluigi, as much as I would celebrate him, makes no sense because Waluigi Land is nowhere on the horizon.

B: Smash characters must have appeared on Nintendo and originate in games.
Sakurai talked about this during Smash4 DLC when the whole battle ballot was going on; I imagine to nip in the bud all the Goku and Naruto votes that were sure to come. This is still a rule that has been followed, so I dont see why it would get broken now. (Cloud appears in a FF spinoff on the 3DS, shaky but technically legit, and Joker appeared in Persona Q2 before the announcement of P5S on the Switch) So please dont explain how One Piece is sure to get in.

C: Fighters Pass brings characters not yet seen in Smash
When Joker was announced, Reggie talked about the DLC being characters new to Smash Bros. Keep in mind that is a wide door. Some people interpreted it much more narrow, as in new IP only, or separate franchises only, but thats not at all what was said. I would take this to mean no assist trophy or costume is getting upgraded any time soon (sorry Geno, Isaac, and Rex), but characters from other Smash established worlds would be ok. And I would put spirits in a gray area myself, because I really doubt anyone in charge would know 100% what all the spirits were and therefore could easily be wrong.

D: 4/5 does not mean 5/5
For some reason people are using the fact that the first 4 FP have been 3rd party to dismiss any 1st party chances and Im very confused. Ive never flipped a coin and gotten 4 heads in a row and suddenly believed that there was zero chance of the 5th flip being tails but I guess thats me. Fact is that FP5 could very easily be from a Nintendo property. Could also not. Thats what makes the speculation fun!

Now, theres a lot that can be extrapolated from what we know, but I dont want to dive into everything because Im sure a lot of you have already thought your way through it and I would like to hear/read your thoughts without contamination. Ill post my own later because I have some strong feelings and it would be cool to have some record if I end up correct! But mostly I want to hear from everyone.

Edit* Please let me know anything I missed or am mistaken on

 

[TheZyzyva]

Now my prediction? Seems way obvious to me.
Sakurai is holding up 3 fingers, presenting 3 question marks, on the 3rd thursday of 2020. All three FE3H Lords confirmed.

 

[Mr. Stevenson]

You made some pretty excellent points.

Another thing to consider is that a lot of people are expecting Fighter #5 to be a real blast, when we should have all learned with the last Direct before Smash Ultimate came out, that Nintendo isn’t the kind of company who saves the “best” for last.

 

[TheZyzyva]

You made excellent points.

Another thing to consider is that a lot of people are expecting Fighter #5 to be a real blast, when we should have all learned with the last Direct before Smash Ultimate came out, that Nintendo isn’t the kind of company who saves the “best” for last.

Totally agree. I bought into the grinch leak myself and was dumbfounded by the last smash direct before launch. I, However, am choosing to be optimistic and believe they are learning; Breath of the Wild 2 trailer closing last E3 gives me hope. But Nintendo IS the one company that doesnt seem to care about hype at all most of the time.

 

[TheZyzyva]

Ok, personal opinion time. I honest to god expect FP5 to be Edelgard if not all 3 lords. Sakurai memes aside, 3 houses was Nintendos biggest game of 2019, and was in production for several years. That gives the Smash devs plenty of time to put a character together so I dont think time is an issue. As far as gameplay goes, I would imagine she could play like Ike X Robin, but with an axe.

That is, if I thought they were gonna mail this in. Edel though has several forms she could take, and a Robin-esque magic axe user could easily be changed to the armor knight she is post timeskip. Since the 3ds is no longer limiting transforming characters that could be her unique trait.
I could go on for pages and pages about each of the 3, but she was the darling to start the game and I think theyll lean into her as the final DLC approaches for 3 Houses itself.

 

[Mr. Stevenson]

Btw I personally always thought Master Chief was such a farfetched choice for a newcomer.
He’s literally just a wishful thought of many people, he was never likely in the first place, I mean for Pete’s sake, he has pretty much 0% history with Nintendo.
Sakurai even stated that it’s more important if a character is fun to play as rather than being recognizable.
If we are to get another Microsoft owned character, it will probably be Steve or (hopefully for me) Conker.

I do think that there’s a good possibility that fighter #5 will be a Nintendo character (perhaps Porky/Pokey).

 

[PsychoJosh]

If it's a Nintendo character the only one I'm pulling for is Lip.

Other than that, if it's third party, Master Chief would be pretty cool. Goemon would be excellent. Crash and Spyro would be amazing (Crash announced as the final character of Season 1, surprise reveal of Spyro for Season 2). If it's from a franchise already in the game, I want Dr. Eggman.

Absolute pipe dream that would blow my mind: Earthworm Jim.