Oasis Mafia - Over!

[3DSNinja]

Guys, I disappeared cause I was at a relatives house who has no wifi. That's it.

 

[ranmaru]

Pythag, can you update me on your reads list.

 

[ranmaru]

Jack, you promised me a vote. Join me on Boom.

 

[Sabrar]

Sabrar LaserGuy What are your conclusions on Boom after these events?

BoomFrog is good at explaining things in a way to remain consistent. I'm sus of him for a reason that I think is valid but has backfired on me in the past with another player. Overall I'm less confident in Boom being scum than UP so my vote stays.

 

[Jackrito]

## BoomFrog.

 

[Jackrito]

Yes, those are all possible, but which of those three scenarios do you think is most likely?



Because people after trying to read you. You have posted a lot but you haven't days a lot. Most of what you've said send to be something someone else has already said, or fairly neutral middle of the road stuff. I've only gotten one tiny glimmer that makes me think you are town, but it's mostly pretty bland which is why I've found you vaguely scummy all D1.

Do you think that's an unreasonable read of you?

Well based off my reads clearly the first two.

What is this glimmer out of intrest because surely you have enough reason to vote me still.

 

[Sabrar]

Guys, I disappeared cause I was at a relatives house who has no wifi. That's it.

Great, so now please answer #880 and #881.

 

[3DSNinja]

I just skimmed over them in UP's analysis. And yeah, I'd put you and UP as null. I'm still catching up on what happened, but I'm still suspicious of Ran. That may change when I read up though, idk.

 

[BoomFrog]

I'm sus of him for a reason that I think is valid but has backfired on me in the past with another player.

Is it that I "always find you scummy on D1" but didn't this game? Actually I did find you scummy but I didn't think I'd get traction to lynch you D1 and didn't want you to NK me N1, so I didn't say anything. I'm still suspicious of you, but it seems I better clear the air. And scum-you won't NK me anyway now since I'm nearly getting lynched.

Or was it something else?

 

[Sabrar]

Or was it something else?

It is related to that idea.

 

[Sabrar]

I just skimmed over them in UP's analysis.

If I understand you correctly you looked at UP's refutation of my points and instead of checking for yourself their validity you took UP's reasons for granted. Why? Again, what was your thought-process?

 

[BoomFrog]

What is this glimmer out of intrest because surely you have enough reason to vote me still.

Sure, I don't want to talk about roles too much, but this shouldn't reveal anything you didn't already say. Your comment about your role really annoying wiisp was very interesting. It seemed like sincere amusement on your part so I don't think you invented the role you will reveal later. So that implies that the role you will reveal in future days is your true role. I'll judge more carefully when you role claim, but until then it's enough that I want to keep you alive.

 

[3DSNinja]

By the way, if I live past this day. I'm always gone the 1st and 3rd Friday and Saturday of the month. it's when I see my dad since I don't see him any time besides then. Probably should've said this before hand, but I didn't for some reason.

 

[BoomFrog]

It is related to that idea.

Well, there's four votes on me (counting UP, I'm sure he will vote me when he shows up) and no traction against UP, so by keeping your vote there you're condemning me. These guys aren't going to go for Maven either.

I think the lynch is between me and Ninja. Make your choice by the end of your day.

##3DSNinja

 

[Sabrar]

One thing I learned from Crossover is that there is absolutely no need for a rush 36 hours before deadline. If it comes down to you and Ninja I'll probably vote for Ninja. But that's still a long way away.

 

[Z25]

Yeah I’m not rushing the vote either.

I must say though, outside of ninja chiming in, the amount of people of interest absent today is both intriguing but worrisome.

At least one of them is scum imo who think they can coast today. But we’ll see.

 

[Z25]

Ranmaru - Doing everything I expect of town Ran. The jumping around shows he is genuinely agonizing over his reads which he wouldn't be as scum. If he'd stayed 100% on Ninja till day end I'd have been worried.
Z25 - Seems like they are trying to solve the game. I remember deciding very early that they are probably town, I think based on an interaction with the early 3DS situation. If 3DS flips scum I'll reconsider but assuming 3DS is town then Z25 was against an easy lynch early. Their progression to being for the ninja lynch seems natural and I think it's genuine, even if I disagree with the conclusion.
Wiisp - A few good moments of actually caring about the game state and trying to get things moving in a more useful direction. I think wolf-Wiisp would have let things fester more. The refusal to analyze Jack was blatant and deliberate, they weren't trying to hide the fact that they were avoiding the evaluation. Which I think is a townie way to do it and I can guess some reasons which I assume will come out in later days.
pythag - Infrequent posts, but I like the perspective in most of them (with the one exception of sheeping Ran). Hasn't stated many bold opinions, but was against early pressure on Ninja. Assuming Ninja is town, pythag is likely town, but this isn't as strong a feeling as with Z25, as I feel his change to decide to lynch Ninja was completely "I think he's town but I'll follow Ran"
Sabrar - Playing a solid game as expected regardless of alignment. Post quality and volume are not alignment indicative for Sabrar. I'm keeping my eye out for a few tells which would be obviously counter productive to mention in detail, but I haven't seen any significant evidence of scumminess. Mild town lean.
LaserGuy - Seems really checked out for the 2nd half of D1. I can understand the feeling after doing a big gambit and analysis that you feel like you've earned it to sit back and watch, but I'd like an updated read list at least. Won't be lynched D1, but could be scum feeling relaxed if town is way off base with our wagons targets.
Jackrito - As I said above, they haven't had any unique insights, and haven't pushed anything in a townie direction, they've just been sitting back saying a bunch of neutral stuff. I did see one glimmer or something townie so I'd rather not lynch here D1.
Maven - I don't know his meta, but he's pretty impossible to read with the minimal amount of content and context I've got. From everyone's description of his meta this seems pretty normal, so I guess we'll just have to see. The fact that he really wanted to know what the case on UP was is promising, I assume he just didn't get a response in time. Hopefully he comes in with some real content, but he's going to be harder to sort in later days then everyone else so I wouldn't mind him as a compromise lynch.
3DSNinja - Dispite the big "neighborhood" misunderstanding issue, his tone change is concerning, and the PM issue is more likely from scum-Ninja. Disappearing again when things are looking like he won't be lynched is also not a good sign. Everything besides the neighboorhood thing point to scum, so I'm not that against his lynch, I just think we can do better.
@UtopianPoyzin - Previous points still stand. Disappeared completely since then, but I won't hold that against him since I assume that is a RL issue not lurking. He doesn't seem like the type to lurk. Yes, Pythag and Ran say he is always kinda like this, but I think the inconsistency is real and shows he wasn't actually acting with purpose in the early game. Town can act spastically, but they do it to generate reads, not just because. I don't take the TooWolfyToBeWolf defense. (or however that acronym goes)

So the fact that Maven was so interested in the UP case then decided to do nothing with it despite the time, doesn’t ping you at least a little?

Your laser points are something we should probably consider at some point to depending on the result of the day phase, as we didn’t really discuss him today.

Although as we close in on deadline the discussion, isn’t probably going to change to greatly as we have covered a lot today. But I really want more from those inactive tomorrow

 

[3DSNinja]

Can someone fill me in on what happened while I was gone?
Why is BoomFrog suddenly a scum read and why is he voting ms; wasn't he defrnding me just a bit ago?

 

[Sabrar]

Why not read back and form your own opinion?

 

[LaserGuy]

Sabrar LaserGuy What are your conclusions on Boom after these events?

Thinking about it some more, I think honestly BoomFrog defending 3DS is probably essentially NAI for him. Or at least, NAI to the extent that I'm able to read BoomFrog, which is, historically, not very well at all this early in the game.

BoomFrog dislikes having wagons that seem inevitable, especially in D1, and will often go against a consensus wagon to try to stir up trouble or look for an alternate wagon and see if scum are either pushing wagon or letting some townies push the wagon along against another townie. So him defending 3DS in this context makes a lot of sense to me... even if Boom is Town believes that 3DS is probably scum, it's well within his meta to try to create some resistance or push a counterwagon just to see who decides to go there. But if Boom is scum, it's possible he's defending his buddy, or, even if he isn't, I believe BoomFrog is probably self-aware enough of his D1 playbook as Town to do this anyway. I think it's well within his meta either way.

I do find that BoomFrog dropping his initial point about Jack doesn't really make a lot of sense. His argument was essentially that Jack had concluded that what I was doing seemed to more likely come from Town, but then dropped it on the grounds that Jack was participating more, which does not really follow from his earlier argument. It doesn't look to me like he ever directly responded to Sabrar bringing this up initially, or Ran in the subsequent commentary, which I don't like either.

I'd probably move him to maybe a scum lean at this point, but I don't think I'd prefer him over 3DS or Maven.

I must say though, outside of ninja chiming in, the amount of people of interest absent today is both intriguing but worrisome.

In fairness, it is the weekend. While that means less than it used to, some people may have different schedules. We had a number of people on our old site who were V/LA every weekend.

 

[LaserGuy]

I'm not going to do a full reads list because I did one on Thursday which is (checks) 13 pages ago. Fast moving game. I should have stuck the emojis.

Town
LaserGuy
Ranmaru
Sabrar
Z25
pythag
Wiisp
Jackrito
BoomFrog
UP
Maven
3DS
Scum

pythag and above I think are likely Town. I don't have time to spend too much time on anyone in this group in D1. Wiisp and Jack have kind of settled into nullish territory. I find both hard to read for similar reasons and haven't found a great way to separate the signal from all of the noise in either player. I will try to spend time on both of them at some point when I am in the right headspace. Gut is Jack is more likely scum and Wiisp is more likely Town, so that's how I've sorted them. Boom I discussed above. UP hasn't really done much since the last time I read him so he's more or less in the same spot. Maven has been mostly away from he game but I haven't liked basically any of the posts that he's actually contributed. #771 in particular rubbed me the wrong way. 3DS, my opinion of him hasn't really changed.

 

[Xivii]

Vote Count 1.13


Boom (3) - Ran, Wisp, Jack [L-3]


Ninja (2) - Laser, Boom


Utopian (1) - Sabrar


Sabrar (1) - Utopian


Maven (1) - pythag


Ran (1) - Ninja


Not Voting (2)
Maven, Z25​

Spoiler: History

P1
Sabrar #Laser
Ninja #UP
pythag #Maven
Ran #Jack
Laser #Ran
UP #Jack
UP #Unv
UP #Sabrar
Z25 #pythag
Boom #Sabrar
Laser #Wiisp
Ran #Ninja

P2
Jack #Laser
Boom #Unv
Boom #Jack
Ran #Laser

P3-P4*
Z25 #Unv

P4-P5*
Laser #Sabrar
Ran #Unv
Ran #Ninja
Sabrar #Unv
Sabrar #UP
Jack #Unv
UP #Unv
UP #Ninja

P5-P7*
Jack #pythag
Boom #Unv
Boom #Maven
Wiisp #Ninja

P7-P9*
Wiisp #Unv
UP #Unv
UP #Boom

P10
Jack #Laser

P12
UP #Unv
UP #Sabrar
Boom #Unv
Boom #UP

P13-15*
Laser #Unv
Laser #Ninja
Ninja #Unv
Ninja #Ran
Ran #Unv
Ran #Ninja

P15-P18*
Jack #Ninja
Wisp #Ninja
Wiisp #Boom

P21
Wisp #Ninja

P22
Wisp #Unv

P23-P25*
Wisp #Ninja
Ran #Unv
Ran #Boom
Wisp #Boom
Jack #Boom
Boom #Ninja

Notes
None

Players and Events
Link

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to execute!

Deadline: Monday, April 20, 2:00pm EDT

 

[Sabrar]

Wiisp : I'm still waiting for you to follow up on #783 and and now I also would like to know what prompted #955.

 

[ranmaru]

Boom moves down for his focus on defense over scum hunting over all. His drop of Jack also doesn't line up with a town pov.

UP moves down for his lack of presence during EOD. I gave a town meta case on him, and he's took it upon himself to keep lurking. He's been present because he's responded to Maven's #771. He's been asked for a case on Sabrar, and also can't give one, so there is no reason for him to stay on him. One thing that concerns me is that this is too blatant.

Jackrito stays in the same position. I also noticed there was a hesitance of him voting Boom between his reads list, and me having to prompt him.

Ninja remains in my bottom four, because his content hasn't improved.

Wisp I still have concerns with, in Sabrar's #1023. Yet it's always difficult for me to gauge his intent as the last time as town, he also has been lazy. He has been very flippant with his vote on Ninja, and then when I swap, he stubbornly stays on. I can't really have a solid read without a flip. Null-scum, but not someone I'd lynch today.

Maven I considered as possible scum, yet I realized that scum would not attack me when they have no presence or influence in the game, because it would only draw my attention. That's all really, but it doesn't improve his slot for me, only puts him at null and is a deadline lynch option or a vig option.

 

[ranmaru]

TOWN [Sabrar >Pythag > Z25 > Laser | Maven | Wisp | Ninja > Jackrito > UP > Boom] SCUM

 

[ranmaru]

Bottom Four: [Boom > UP > Jack > Ninja]

 

[ranmaru]

BoomFrog I'm going to need you to answer the point about Jack in Sabrar's #309.

 

[ranmaru]

3DSNinja You still have yet to answer Sabrar. I want to see that.

 

[Wiisp]

Sabrar
you need to remind me what I am supposed to be responding to in #783 lol
and what exactly do you want to know about 955?

 

[3DSNinja]

Why not read back and form your own opinion?

You're right, I'll do that.

 

[Sabrar]

you need to remind me what I am supposed to be responding to in #783 lol

Your #783 was a reply to my #754

and what exactly do you want to know about 955?

It was a sudden change of direction with no previous indication, no reason given in the post and no follow-up. It is jarringly out of place.

 

[ranmaru]

I am curious what caused you to doubt Sabrar, Wisp.

 

[Wiisp]

his responses have this weird tone to them that bothers me
but if he is Exlight then I am not currently worried about him

what exactly is jarringly out of place in terms of voting one of my wolf reads?
this is what I mean
all of you play 20 questions, and half the questions are ****ing stupid

lmao that post links to 3 other posts that I have to go read, and if they solely exist for you to read me
then its not worth my time

 

[ranmaru]

It's not stupid. This is scumhunting.

 

[Wiisp]

sorry, I'm just irritated
I do not like focusing on myself
town or mafia, I hate people trying to figure me out Day 1
just leave me alone

seriously, on most sites, if I am the top voice, I just die night 1
or I spend most of the time trying to fight my lynch on day 1 because I am not understanding enough

 

[Sabrar]

what exactly is jarringly out of place in terms of voting one of my wolf reads?

I'm not referring to your vote. I'm referring to the fact that you asked Ran whether I'm town.

lmao that post links to 3 other posts that I have to go read, and if they solely exist for you to read me
then its not worth my time

The least you could do is to look them up. Or you could have done this days ago when I first asked you. But here you go.

My read on Ninja in #326

Your reaction in #329

My reply in #337

My question from #754: "What was the purpose of #329, what conclusions did you draw? "

 

[Wiisp]

I think I am town enough for day 1
I think there are players who have posted less then me, that are not as townie, but townie enough day 1
but don't get bothered with, because they come and go
but you focus on me, who is literally reading this thread 24/7?

 

[ranmaru]

Sabrar Ninja dodged your #1011.

 

[ranmaru]

Wiisp If you're town you should be able to answer honestly.

 

[Wiisp]

Sabrar
do you consider yourself a good player?
What exactly was so townie about was Ninja, for you to decide he was fine?
Clearly enough people didn't think he was townie, people still dont think he is townie
but you come in, "I think his tone is townie"
idk if you honestly believe that, or if you are trying to be cute