Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[Quillion]

it's only ever zelda one offs that people argue over. no other franchises seems to spark this reaction

To be fair, people argue over Mario spin-off characters too. Many agree that Waluigi and Geno have low chance at best since they're not main series.

 

[Dinoman96]

So which "one off" characters DO we have in Ultimate not counting DLC? ROB and Duck Hunt? And...

Mostly just main characters and mascots like Ice Climbers, most of the Fire Emblem crew, those two you mentioned, etc.

As far as 'secondary' characters are concerned, you also have someone like Dark Pit, whose basically just a glorified palette swap given his own slot. So from that perspective, the closest we have to a character like Midna, Rauru, Skull Kid, etc is like, Sheik. But Sheik is, you know, just Zelda in another outfit, and only got in because of her transformation gimmick in Melee.

 

[fogbadge]

So which "one off" characters DO we have in Ultimate not counting DLC? ROB and Duck Hunt? And...

dark pit

 

[Gengar84]

So which "one off" characters DO we have in Ultimate not counting DLC? ROB and Duck Hunt? And...

Sheik is the most obvious one-off but there are others. Most of the Fire Emblem cast are one-offs. If you don’t count Xenoblade DLC, Shulk is a one-off and so are Pyra and Mythra.

There are two more I’m uncertain of. I think maybe Wii Fit Trainer but that game may have had a sequel I’m unaware of. I don’t follow CastleVania much but I’m not sure if Richter is playable in other games beyond Symphony of the Night.

 

[Sucumbio]

So like very few unless their protags and because of FeH I hesitate to say anyone from FE counts as a 1 off cause their in at least their own game and heros.. hmm not a great trend. Still one can always invest in Fan demand and try make it happen.

Edit for

He's in Castlevania Dracula X on SNES and Bloodlines on Genesis.

 

[Ivander]

Most of the Fire Emblem cast are one-offs. If you don’t count Xenoblade DLC, Shulk is a one-off and so are Pyra and Mythra.

Actually, after Engage, all of them aren't one-offs, aside from Female Robin, Male Corrin and Female Byleth. And that's not counting Fire Emblem Heroes.

 

[Gengar84]

So like very few unless their protags and because of FeH I hesitate to say anyone from DE counts as a 1 off cause their in at least their own game and heros.. hmm not a great trend. Still one can always invest in Fan demand and try make it happen.

I think the lack of one offs in Smash is more a coincidence than anything else. I don’t believe that there’s any kind of stance against including one-off characters, just that other characters happened to outprioritize them. Now that many of those characters made it in, the chances for the popular one-offs get a lot better.

Actually, after Engage, all of them aren't one-offs, aside from Female Robin, Male Corrin and Female Byleth. And that's not counting Fire Emblem Heroes.

That’s true but they were one-offs at the point of their original inclusion so I wouldn’t count that as a point against one-offs. As far as I’m aware, they’re just guest summons and don’t play a huge role in the story. I’ve never played the game though so I could be very wrong on that point.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

do all NSO expansions get announced in a direct ?

Like new consoles and stuff?

Usually yeah. So far they haven't just announced a new console out of the blue. At least as far as I'm aware.

 

[Sucumbio]

Now that many of those characters made it in, the chances for the popular one-offs get a lot better.

That is my personal sentiment as well but in the realm of non protag choices tend to gravitate to mooks over secondary characters. Some huge exceptions do exist obviously like my preference of just about every sub boss from Metal Gear Solid vs a Genome Soldier (unless he's Johnny obv ).

 

[CapitaineCrash]

well that’s still kinda what I meant, worthiness is usually down to who people like

yeah people keep coming up with these odd reasons to leave characters out

The timing of Zelda releases isn't an "odd reason" tho. It's an actual fact stated by Sakurai that characters are chosen based on games released near the project plan of each respective game. In an interview with Sakurai about the character selection process he said:

"(...) It also depends on luck, of course. Industry trends around the time when development begins is a pretty big factor. I started development on Smash for 3DS/ Wii U right after I’d wrapped up Kid Icarus: Uprising, and Fire Emblem Awakening was released one month after Uprising. So what’s popular around the time when I begin designing the game is important. Characters are almost never added after I’ve completed the project plan for Smash."

So yeah timing is important and while there is some exceptions to this rule (Duck hunt in Smash 4, K. Rool in Ultimate for example), it's just a fact that a character that hasn't been in a game for quite some time will have less chances to be chosen in Smash. So yeah, unless there's huge support for the characters, Midna and Skull kid chances are unfortunately fairly low.

 

[fogbadge]

Sheik is the most obvious one-off but there are others. Most of the Fire Emblem cast are one-offs. If you don’t count Xenoblade DLC, Shulk is a one-off and so are Pyra and Mythra.

There are two more I’m uncertain of. I think maybe Wii Fit Trainer but that game may have had a sequel I’m unaware of. I don’t follow CastleVania much but I’m not sure if Richter is playable in other games beyond Symphony of the Night.

there are three Wii fit games and the trainer was in all of them

The timing of Zelda releases isn't an "odd reason" tho. It's an actual fact stated by Sakurai that characters are chosen based on games released near the project plan of each respective game. In an interview with Sakurai about the character selection process he said:

"(...) It also depends on luck, of course. Industry trends around the time when development begins is a pretty big factor. I started development on Smash for 3DS/ Wii U right after I’d wrapped up Kid Icarus: Uprising, and Fire Emblem Awakening was released one month after Uprising. So what’s popular around the time when I begin designing the game is important. Characters are almost never added after I’ve completed the project plan for Smash."

So yeah timing is important and while there is some exceptions to this rule (Duck hunt in Smash 4, K. Rool in Ultimate for example), it's just a fact that a character that hasn't been in a game for quite some time will have less chances to be chosen in Smash. So yeah, unless there's huge support for the characters, Midna and Skull kid chances are unfortunately fairly low.

That’s never a reason fans use

besides sakurai also said that recentcy isn’t the only factor in terrys video

 

[RileyXY1]

So which "one off" characters DO we have in Ultimate not counting DLC? ROB and Duck Hunt? And...

There's also the two Earthbound boys. In fact technically through Ness we've had a one off character since the very beginning.

 

[Gengar84]

That is my personal sentiment as well but in the realm of non protag choices tend to gravitate to mooks over secondary characters. Some huge exceptions do exist obviously like my preference of just about every sub boss from Metal Gear Solid vs a Genome Soldier (unless he's Johnny obv ).

I think the only mook we’ve gotten so far is Piranha Plant so I wouldn’t say that points to any kind of trend. I think Sakurai and the team just thought the character would be a funny surprise and they went with it.

 

[Quillion]

Why are we equating Zelda one-offs to EarthBound or Fire Emblem one-offs? That is not the same deal whatsoever.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Two epic adventures dawn…

Golden Sun and Golden Sun: The Lost Age are coming to #NintendoSwitch for #NintendoSwitchOnline + Expansion Pack members on 1/17! pic.twitter.com/d3Y5Lx5RX0

— Nintendo of America (@NintendoAmerica) January 12, 2024

I always wonder if these NSO/Expansion Pack releases really help these games find new audiences, but in this case, I'm really hoping that's what happens.

I hope this can at least knock down the price of the few physical copies remaining online a bit. Golden Sun is on my radar currently and owning a real cartridge of it would just feel better for me.

Who would you all pick for the next Pokemon rep, whether you think it’s the most likely or just one you want to see the most?

Sakurai, SORA, Nintendo, Bamco and TPC if they weren't fooling around!

 

[fogbadge]

Why are we equating Zelda one-offs to EarthBound or Fire Emblem one-offs? That is not the same deal whatsoever.

Says who?

 

[Opossum]

Why are we equating Zelda one-offs to EarthBound or Fire Emblem one-offs? That is not the same deal whatsoever.

And why is that the case? If the character has enduring popularity, which many of them do, then it isn't an issue.

 

[Louie G.]

I alluded to it at some point last night but I want to acknowledge that I feel like people overvalue exactly what role plays in the mainline Mario series, particularly at the time of her inclusion. Since I saw someone just say spinoffs are largely irrelevant to character selection, I'm going to apply that logic here as well if it's such a non-factor. How important is Rosalina?

There's Super Mario Galaxy, her debut and her defining role as a "major" character. She's Mario's guide and has a distinct role in the story. Galaxy 2, Rosalina's function is replaced by Lubba. She appears in the end as a 100% completion reward, but otherwise has no influence on the game. In all fairness, the "Cosmic Spirit" exists throughout the game to assist with levels and looks a lot like Rosalina. But these are decidedly very minor roles.

Then there's Super Mario 3D World, where Rosalina makes her debut as a playable character. This is her sole playable appearance, and she is a post-game unlock. I think it's important to note though, that Rosalina was locked in before the fact. The roster proposal was finalized in May of 2012 and she is distinctly credited as being from Super Mario Galaxy. She was revealed for Smash within a month of her playable debut in 3D World. It's safe to say this was not a large factor in their decision to include her.

All of this to say, how different is Rosalina from these one-off Zelda characters or Kirby characters? Well, the clear difference is the factor of Mario spinoffs to keep a character in the public conscience, which is not the be all end all but it helps her recognizability. Still, I can't imagine this was the determining variable in adding her to Smash... and even so, Hyrule Warriors exists now if we really wanna play that card. So does Star Allies or Kirby Fighters.

I think Rosalina being here is perhaps the best piece of evidence that these kind of characters are perfectly viable, the fates just haven't aligned for any of them to be here yet. Or maybe Sakurai hasn't been as uniquely inspired as he was to make Rosalina a puppet fighter. Bottom line, if we want to criticize the validity of Skull Kid or Midna, or Marx or whoever, we gotta look at the character most comparable to them on the existing roster.

 

[Gengar84]

Why are we equating Zelda one-offs to EarthBound or Fire Emblem one-offs? That is not the same deal whatsoever.

I don’t get why fans are so opposed to Zelda one-offs or think there’s some unspoken rule that we can’t ever get them. A one-off is a one-off regardless of series even if their situation isn’t the same. Either there’s some hidden rule saying we can’t get one-offs or there isn’t. Seeing as Smash already has several one-offs, albeit from different circumstances, that rule obviously doesn’t exist. It also makes no sense to impose any kind of rule like that. If a character has a big fan base and would get people excited for their inclusion, who cares if they were only in one game?

I think people focus too hard on Smash as an advertising platform and forget that Smash also has to get enough people interested in the newcomers to sell itself. Majora’s Mask may be old news now but the inclusion of Skull Kid might get more people interested in the Zelda series in general. Also, Hyrule Warriors exists so the popular requests aren’t one-offs anymore anyways.

 

[SPEN18]

I mean, are we sure that "one-off characters are only allowed if their series has a fully rotating cast with no reoccurring characters between games, or otherwise if they're canonically the alter ego of a character who's part of the non-rotating main cast even though they look and sound completely different" is a criteria that they actually use?
It sounds a little convoluted.

I believe it's much easier to think Zelda characters were not a priority after Melee.

I don't think anyone has suggested that Sakurai or Nintendo have some hard written rule or anything on the matter. But there's a pattern people have observed with Zelda and other series, and people are speculating on why things have shaken out that way. Even if a lot of those reasons end up being "soft" reasons, like say tendencies or general preferences Sakurai has fallen into.

I think the holdup with Zelda one-off types may be the combination of them being one-offs and also not a "main protagonist" type, though you could argue someone like Midna is a "main protagonist" of sorts and that Skull Kid is a "main antagonist" as well (well, really Majora, but you get the point). I don't agree with that combo being preventative of inclusion, though the devs may think differently, idk.

 

[Sucumbio]

I think the only mook we’ve gotten so far is Piranha Plant so I wouldn’t say that points to any kind of trend. I think Sakurai and the team just thought the character would be a funny surprise and they went with it.

Sorry, I meant my personal wants tend to gravitate to mooks over secondary characters but with some again personally notable exceptions.

 

[Dinoman96]

I think people focus too hard on Smash as an advertising platform and forget that Smash also has to get enough people interested in the newcomers to sell itself. Majora’s Mask may be old news now but the inclusion of Skull Kid might get more people interested in the Zelda series in general. Also, Hyrule Warriors exists so the popular requests aren’t one-offs anymore anyways.

I mean my hot take in that regard: blame Sakurai and Nintendo for this rofl. Especially Smash 4 that pulled super hard from then recent first party Wii/3DS games outside of like, Duck Hunt, whose only first party DLC newcomer was yet another promotional Fire Emblem one.

Basically the same thing with Ultimate, whose first party lineup both in the base game and especially DLC have relied heavily on recent first party Wii U/3DS/Switch games, the only notable exceptions being the ballot winners like K. Ridley.

We've been kinda conditioned into believing that, unless they're on the level of K. Rool or something in terms of fan demand, the only Nintendo characters that have a real shot are the ones that still appear in recent games, barring Sakurai's occasional wacky surprise rep like Duck Hunt (even then, this time around he chose Piranha Plant to fill in that slot, even pointing how it's more well known than most main characters in other series).

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

It's strange how people undervalue Sheik using hindsight bias of the modern age. Even going as far as to say Sheik "only got in" because of the transformation gimmick as if she would never have been in Melee otherwise.

And yet back in the day, Ocarina of Time was a huge deal for the franchise and Sheik was requested just as much as Zelda was on the "Smash 2" poll, something that is unheard of in today's age where people flounder on what Zelda character to add. Hell, when Melee was revealed at E3, people cheered for the most out of the newcomers shown and for the longest time, the fact Zelda was involved for the gimmick was unknown. People saw Sheik for Sheik and not some afterthought riding on Zelda's coattails like people see her now.

If anything the fact Zelda got in Melee would have to do with Sheik existing, not the other way around. Just saying.

 

[Gengar84]

I feel like many Smash fans focus too much on trying to find patterns when most of the time it is likely just a coincidence. I truly think all it is is that other characters were a higher priority at the time than the Zelda one-offs. Now that many of the top fan requests from the Ballot are in, we may start seeing more of them. We’re going to run out of iconic recurring first party characters soon enough and they’re going to need to start adding more one-offs at that point anyways. There’s only so many recurring characters left that enough people care about to act as a selling point.

One thing I think is important to remember is just because something hasn’t happened yet doesn’t mean that it can’t or won’t happen in the future. Even if a pattern does exist, it doesn’t mean it will forever.

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

Now to be clear, I'm not saying we should be expecting Sheik now if she never got in already. She's clearly a product of her time.
My point is that people rather undermine what she represented back then (a popular character from a relevant major title) simply because she was secretly Zelda in her home series.

 

[Zerp]

Zelda one-offs is going to be one of those fan-rules that inevitably get broken. A lot of them are pretty big characters in their own right, there's no real reason they'd be impossible. I like talking about rather unlikely characters but like, these guys aren't even that unlikely. They just haven't got in yet, that's pretty much all there is to it.

We’re going to run out of iconic recurring first party characters soon enough and they’re going to need to start adding more one-offs at that point anyways. There’s only so many recurring characters left that enough people care about to act as a selling point.

Ngl I think some of Zelda's one-offs are already more iconic than some cast members. Like, if you go to pop stores chances are significantly more likely you'll see Skull Kid or Tingle something than Dark Pit or Min Min something. Or if you just started polling random people on a street with "do you recognize this character?" I guarantee you those two will beat out a couple Smash characters.

 

[MasterCheef]

Like new consoles and stuff?

Usually yeah. So far they haven't just announced a new console out of the blue. At least as far as I'm aware.

.
.
I was more thinking games as in , Golden Sun ?

 

[Sucumbio]

Nintendo already told us their investors anything sw2 related will not be announced until at least the spring so no Nintendo communications are "meant" to be sw2 related but there's plenty of rabbit holes you can jump down, be my guest lol

 

[SneakyLink]

The only thing I want out of a Switch 2 is backwards compatibility with the original Switch.

Even if we discount the NSO, Arcade Archives, and Sega Ages games, along with apps such as Youtube or the Persona 5 Strikers Bonus Content, the Switch has one of the biggest libraries of any Nintendo console (counting only official releases).

Unless the next console is a drastic leap in hardware that there can’t be any sort of backwards compatibility, I suspect not adding it would really sow distrust among the fans.

Edit: As for Zelda one offs, Agitha has been one of most wanted since Hyrule Warriors came out, but I accept her chances are non-existent

 

[Scrimblo Bimblo]

I alluded to it at some point last night but I want to acknowledge that I feel like people overvalue exactly what role plays in the mainline Mario series, particularly at the time of her inclusion. Since I saw someone just say spinoffs are largely irrelevant to character selection, I'm going to apply that logic here as well if it's such a non-factor. How important is Rosalina?

There's Super Mario Galaxy, her debut and her defining role as a "major" character. She's Mario's guide and has a distinct role in the story. Galaxy 2, Rosalina's function is replaced by Lubba. She appears in the end as a 100% completion reward, but otherwise has no influence on the game. In all fairness, the "Cosmic Spirit" exists throughout the game to assist with levels and looks a lot like Rosalina. But these are decidedly very minor roles.

Then there's Super Mario 3D World, where Rosalina makes her debut as a playable character. This is her sole playable appearance, and she is a post-game unlock. I think it's important to note though, that Rosalina was locked in before the fact. The roster proposal was finalized in May of 2012 and she is distinctly credited as being from Super Mario Galaxy. She was revealed for Smash within a month of her playable debut in 3D World. It's safe to say this was not a large factor in their decision to include her.

View attachment 382895

All of this to say, how different is Rosalina from these one-off Zelda characters or Kirby characters? Well, the clear difference is the factor of Mario spinoffs to keep a character in the public conscience, which is not the be all end all but it helps her recognizability. Still, I can't imagine this was the determining variable in adding her to Smash... and even so, Hyrule Warriors exists now if we really wanna play that card. So does Star Allies or Kirby Fighters.

I think Rosalina being here is perhaps the best piece of evidence that these kind of characters are perfectly viable, the fates just haven't aligned for any of them to be here yet. Or maybe Sakurai hasn't been as uniquely inspired as he was to make Rosalina a puppet fighter. Bottom line, if we want to criticize the validity of Skull Kid or Midna, or Marx or whoever, we gotta look at the character most comparable to them on the existing roster.

I feel like Palutena also kinda qualifies for this role. I mean, I know she isn't technically a one-off, but Kid Icarus is such a small series and in the first two games she is basically a static sprite that shows up for a few seconds at the end of the game. Uprising is the game that really "made" the character and lead to her inclusion. I believe a vast majority of the people who care about her does so because of one game. I can't see in what way the Zelda one-offs are meaningfully different.

But I really think in the end it comes down to timing.
Take Dark Samus for instance. Though not technically a one-off, she played an important role in the Prime trilogy before leaving the series, presumably forever. The time for her to join was in Brawl and she missed the boat; the fact that she remained a beloved character many years after the fact couldn't help her without timing (or continued relevancy) on her side. In fact, she suffered the typical fate of the popular Zelda one-off character: getting the nod as an Assist Trophy.
Then Ultimate happened and she finally become playable, albeit as an Echo (not that I mind. <3 Dark Samus). Anyways, it took noticeable, persistent fan demand AND her plausibility as a clone for her to get in so long after the perfect moment.
Skull Kid and Midna can't work as clones of anyone in the roster, they don't have timing on their side and they're not at the Ridley/K. Rool level of requests where they just have to put them in as fully original characters.

That said, I think either of them would be very well received, but it's just not the way they've been selecting characters lately.
Maybe if they pull a FF7R with Ocarina and Majora...

 

[Sucumbio]

The only thing I want out of a Switch 2 is backwards compatibility with the original Switch.

Even if we discount the NSO, Arcade Archives, and Sega Ages games, along with apps such as Youtube or the Persona 5 Strikers Bonus Content, the Switch has one of the biggest libraries of any Nintendo console (counting only official releases).

Unless the next console is a drastic leap in hardware that there can’t be any sort of backwards compatibility, I suspect not adding it would really sow distrust among the fans.

Edit: As for Zelda one offs, Agitha has been one of most wanted since Hyrule Warriors came out, but I accept her chances are non-existent

Historically only the wiiU has had it right? Not counting handheld... which raises the point Switch IS handheld and there's NSO + exp pack which is cheaper to just keep as an architecture rather than scrapping it but they have shown in the past shops close so idk. But if the rumors are true the next system is supposed to be closer to current gen now than switch is about 2 gens behind...

 

[Dinoman96]

I feel like Palutena also kinda qualifies for this role. I mean, I know she isn't technically a one-off, but Kid Icarus is such a small series and in the first two games she is basically a static sprite that shows up for a few seconds at the end of the game. Uprising is the game that really "made" the character and lead to her inclusion. I believe a vast majority of the people who care about her does so because of one game. I can't see in what way the Zelda one-offs are meaningfully different.

There is literally one way Palutena is meaningfully different from the Zelda one-offs, and it involves the director of Smash Bros. who also just so happened to direct Uprising lol

 

[Hadokeyblade]

The only thing I want out of a Switch 2 is backwards compatibility with the original Switch.

Even if we discount the NSO, Arcade Archives, and Sega Ages games, along with apps such as Youtube or the Persona 5 Strikers Bonus Content, the Switch has one of the biggest libraries of any Nintendo console (counting only official releases).

Unless the next console is a drastic leap in hardware that there can’t be any sort of backwards compatibility, I suspect not adding it would really sow distrust among the fans.

I also hope they keep the console region free.

It very much annoyed me back in the day that the Nintendo DS was region free but the 3DS wasnt.

Plus i have a lot of international Switch games and i wouldnt be upset if i couldnt play them on the newer hardware, physical releases of games that were only released digitally in the west, because im stubborn like that.

 

[Quillion]

I'm just hoping the next console has a dual screen option (note: OPTION, not fully integrated feature). That way, everything from the DS, 3DS and Wii U can be available.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

.
.
I was more thinking games as in , Golden Sun ?

Oh yeah, they get randomly dropped all the time.

 

[Hadokeyblade]

I'm just hoping the next console has a dual screen option (note: OPTION, not fully integrated feature). That way, everything from the DS, 3DS and Wii U can be available.

Yeah, it would only appeal to people who want to play those old games because no modern game would take advantage of it but i want a second screen add-on so they can port DS/3DS titles easier

 

[Swamp Sensei]

There is literally one way Palutena is meaningfully different from the Zelda one-offs, and it involves the director of Smash Bros. who also just so happened to direct Uprising lol

Palutena was also one of the most popular character choices at the time. Back then Kid Icarus Uprising was REALLY popular.

 

[DarthEnderX]

I'm very clear about dreading Xenoblade joining the ranks of Pokémon and Fire Emblem as another rotating cast franchise (to be clear, I expect it to be the case, and I also dislike the prospect)

Ugh, same. The Xenoblade characters already feel like just getting more FE characters as it is. So the prospect of getting twice as many of those or a regular basis is groan inducing.

should we care what tv tropes does?

You don't have to. But it speaks to a zeitgeist.

so? who are we to say that a game with a limited audience is any less than a game with a massive audience

People that understand how popularity and money work?

Piranha Plant showed us that Smash can add monsters without them necessarily having to be characters.

If by "showed us" you mean "happened and was terrible" then yes.

 

[Sucumbio]

I'm just hoping the next console has a dual screen option (note: OPTION, not fully integrated feature). That way, everything from the DS, 3DS and Wii U can be available.

I think Nintendo agrees not leaving all those dual screen games lay dormant but I think it'll be a dockable platform again so who knows maybe 3ds titles won't be playable docked eh

 

[CannonStreak]

I think Nintendo agrees not leaving all those dual screen games lay dormant but I think it'll be a dockable platform again so who knows maybe 3ds titles won't be playable docked eh

Hmmm...

If this has to do with the Switch 2, and the Switch 2 is the new Nintendo console's name, what better way to make a Switch 2 than to make it have 2 screens?