Square-Enix is fine to deal with.
We're 2 game in and they have the biggest increase of newcomers from 1 to 4, and they have a great relationship with Nintendo right now.
I don't worry about ANY of the SE characters to come back.
From the Square side, yes.
From the Nintendo side, depends who gets priority. Some may get edged out.
Cloud is "barebones" because his contract was the same from Ultimate to Smash 4.
That's it, nothing else.
His contract already wasn't the same because he was in base, and that's going to exclude the entire way Square would've been entitled to back-end profit on the DLC character. That's going to require a whole new contract at least in terms of how Square was compensated.
And I think that's part of to how FF ended up the way it did.
But, I do think the fact that they went from 4 right into Ultimate did mean Cloud never wasn't on the table, just his way of appearing (base via DLC) was in contention until they, eventually sometime before release, agreed to their win-win compromise.
They had no plan for Sephiroth when making Ultimate, as we know from Sakurai's interview that plan for DLC 2 happened when they saw DLC 1 becoming a success and finishing around TGS when they announced it with Terry.
I think you're being a bit too trusting of Sakurai's words. For Smash 4 circa Mewtwo reveal he said there was no further plan for paid DLC, which based on the timeframe, just wasn't true.
I think they had some sort of plan for more DLC past pass 1 long before they're copping to. Not necessarily a full other pass, not necessarily all the characters decided, but more. By the second Mii wave you could see a deliberate division of Enix/Square costumes, which was informed by the intent to have a Square character later on.
And to push even further, Imran, an insider in the gaming world, the one who explained that Steve took more than five years to get a deal for (which later was proved real thanks to Sakurai's interview) explained that Sephiroth was in case they couldn't get Sora.
Which...well, they managed to get both.
Imran also said Byleth was planned for base, which, given 3H's development and how XC2 and ARMS were too late for base, can't possibly be true.
Edit: It also wasn't a claim, it was an "educated guess"
this is also my educated guess
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