Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[dream1ng]

iconicness isnt the same as popularity. just cause you know about something doesnt mean you like it

If you've been backed into arguing that Mewtwo isn't popular, it's not a good place to be.

 

[Diddy Kong]

Mewtwo strikes me as one that will essentially be grandfathered in to many releases, because they were so prominent and so early on. There is a reason that particular Pokémon, Charizard, and Pikachu were so prominent in the recent live action film, after all.

Is grandfathered even a right term for Mewtwo? I think not, as it's always iconic , popular and will have new appearances in Pokemon games because of this all. They shoehorn Mewtwo in, always. It's never gonna be irrelevant in the games.

It's not like cases of say, Sheik, Ganondorf, retro characters , Ness, Captain Falcon and I daresay even King K.Rool.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

Is grandfathered even a right term for Mewtwo? I think not, as it's always iconic , popular and will have new appearances in Pokemon games because of this all. They shoehorn Mewtwo in, always. It's never gonna be irrelevant in the games.

It's not like cases of say, Sheik, Ganondorf, retro characters , Ness, Captain Falcon and I daresay even King K.Rool.

More in the sense that even if Mewtwo loses relevance in any fashion as the generations go on, he'll still be popping up in some way because he's that famous.

 

[RileyXY1]

More in the sense that even if Mewtwo loses relevance in any fashion as the generations go on, he'll still be popping up in some way because he's that famous.

He got two Mega Evolutions and was a star of the Detective Pikachu movie (I believe that the Mewtwo in that movie is the same one from Mewtwo Strikes Back). There's no way that Mewtwo is getting cut except if TPC cuts their involvement with Smash or if the roster is extremely cut from the past.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

I keep seeing somebody named "Aether" suggested. I think they're the main player character?

either Aether or his twin sister Lumine. you pick one of them as your playable protagonist and the other becomes an antagonist. Ability wise they're both the same, can change elements at a Statue of the Seven. Maybe Paimon appears in their taunts/victory screens?

if not Aether/Lumine, I can see one of the 5 star units making it. Perhaps someone like Diluc, or even the limited 5 star who drove the most revenue both times she ran, Raiden Shogun

Venti's another option, he's the first character you run into (Amber's the first one you interact with) and a very important story character

 

[fogbadge]

If you've been backed into arguing that Mewtwo isn't popular, it's not a good place to be.

again you are deliberately missing the point in being favour on condescending. A: theres is no true way measure popularity so if we rule out one method we'd be as well to rule them all out and B: being popular is not the same as being the most popular and many of the people who like him probably like other pokemon more

 

[Opossum]

iconicness isnt the same as popularity. just cause you know about something doesnt mean you like it

If people didn't like Mewtwo, they wouldn't have been the single most requested returning veteran after they got cut from Brawl.

If people didn't like Mewtwo, they wouldn't have used them as an early adopter bonus for Smash 4.

If people didn't like Mewtwo, they wouldn't have remade their original movie to celebrate its twentieth anniversary.

If people didn't like Mewtwo, Mewtwo wouldn't have gotten two Mega Evolutions, a feat that was otherwise only held by Charizard.

If people didn't like Mewtwo, the filmmakers wouldn't have given them such a prominent role in the Detective Pikachu movie, nor would they have made Mewtwo's presence a big reveal in the second trailer.

If people didn't like Mewtwo, they wouldn't constantly use them in things like Pokémon Origins, Pokémon Evolutions, or the Rainbow Rocket postgame of USUM.

If people didn't like Mewtwo, you wouldn't see "Happy Birthday, Mewtwo" posts all over Twitter every January 6th, nor would you constantly see said posts accompanied by Mewtwo's famous quote from the end of the first movie.

If people didn't like Mewtwo, Shadow Mewtwo wouldn't be Pokkén Tournament's final boss.

If people didn't like Mewtwo, then Mewtwo wouldn't have been planned to be included in the original Smash Bros game.


To act like Mewtwo is only iconic because people know them rather than like them is ludicrous. Mewtwo is incredibly popular.

 

[fogbadge]

If people didn't like Mewtwo, they wouldn't have been the single most requested returning veteran after they got cut from Brawl.

If people didn't like Mewtwo, they wouldn't have used them as an early adopter bonus for Smash 4.

If people didn't like Mewtwo, they wouldn't have remade their original movie to celebrate its twentieth anniversary.

If people didn't like Mewtwo, Mewtwo wouldn't have gotten two Mega Evolutions, a feat that was otherwise only held by Charizard.

If people didn't like Mewtwo, the filmmakers wouldn't have given them such a prominent role in the Detective Pikachu movie, nor would they have made Mewtwo's presence a big reveal in the second trailer.

If people didn't like Mewtwo, they wouldn't constantly use them in things like Pokémon Origins, Pokémon Evolutions, or the Rainbow Rocket postgame of USUM.

If people didn't like Mewtwo, you wouldn't see "Happy Birthday, Mewtwo" posts all over Twitter every January 6th, nor would you constantly see said posts accompanied by Mewtwo's famous quote from the end of the first movie.

If people didn't like Mewtwo, Shadow Mewtwo wouldn't be Pokkén Tournament's final boss.

If people didn't like Mewtwo, then Mewtwo wouldn't have been planned to be included in the original Smash Bros game.


To act like Mewtwo is only iconic because people know them rather than like them is ludicrous. Mewtwo is incredibly popular.

did I say people didn’t like him? I said you can’t prove how popular any of them actually are and that many of his fans may actually like other Pokemon more. Why don’t you actually read a post properly before you get so upset

I never once said he was unpopular I was saying the stats by which you judge it by is probably skewed as well and at this point there’s probably more popular

 

[Rie Sonomura]

back on Genshin rq

Genshin's whole "thing" at large is elemental reactions, which can do additional damage and/or apply a side effect. for example:

Hydro + Pyro = Vaporize, does additional damage
Dendro + Pyro = Burning, damage over time
Hydro + Cryo = frozen, immobilizes
Electro + Cryo = Superconduct, AoE damage and reduces RES of any enemy caught in the AoE
Electro + Pyro = Overloaded, causes an explosion with damage
this reaction has been datamined and is not available in the game proper yet, but Dendro + Hydro = Overgrown, plants a little mushroom bomb that goes off after a while

since Aether/Lumine is the only one who can swap their element at will, i think this can make for a moveset with lots of potential

 

[Opossum]

did I say people didn’t like him? I said you can’t prove how popular any of them actually are and that many of his fans may actually like other Pokemon more. Why don’t you actually read a post properly before you get so upset

I never once said he was unpopular I was saying the stats by which you judge it by is probably skewed as well and at this point there’s probably more popular

LMAO I'm not going to be told to "actually read your posts properly" if you can't even consistently use capitalization (despite apparently being thirty).

You can absolutely prove popularity. The Pokémon Company isn't flying by the seats of their collective pants, making content for random Pokémon willy-nilly. They make things for Pokémon that are popular. That's how marketing works, especially for what is quite literally the biggest media franchise on the planet. When GameFreak and The Pokémon Company push a particular Pokémon, it's because they're either marketable for the new generation (ie, brand new Pokémon), or one of the select few Pokémon that have retained massive amounts of popularity over time.

This is where you'd find ones like Pikachu, Eevee and its numerous evolutions, Charizard, Venusaur, Blastoise, Gengar, Snorlax, Gardevoir, Lucario, Greninja, and, yes, Mewtwo. Out of a franchise that's coming closer and closer to the 1000 monsters mark, the only Pokémon that I can think of that get more marketing than Mewtwo are Pikachu (the literal mascot), Eevee (whom TPCI has been trying to make into a secondary mascot), and Charizard (literally the most popular starter Pokémon of all time). They wouldn't do that for a Pokémon that's unpopular, and therefore, Mewtwo's popularity is measurable.

 

[skylanders fan]

As someone begging for Mewtwo during smash 4 I can tell you that he was easily one of the most requested characters (up there if not more so then King k rool and Ridley) if people wanted other Pokémon more they would have been high on the fighter ballot and no way they wouldn’t have added blaziken or someone else if they were getting highly requested. Shoot even when greninja was revealed people immediately thought it was Mewtwo due to shadows from his hands. Tbh it would be crazy to cut him again unless the next roster only has like ten returning fighters

 

[fogbadge]

LMAO I'm not going to be told to "actually read your posts properly" if you can't even consistently use capitalization (despite apparently being thirty).

You can absolutely prove popularity. The Pokémon Company isn't flying by the seats of their collective pants, making content for random Pokémon willy-nilly. They make things for Pokémon that are popular. That's how marketing works, especially for what is quite literally the biggest media franchise on the planet. When GameFreak and The Pokémon Company push a particular Pokémon, it's because they're either marketable for the new generation (ie, brand new Pokémon), or one of the select few Pokémon that have retained massive amounts of popularity over time.

This is where you'd find ones like Pikachu, Eevee and its numerous evolutions, Charizard, Venusaur, Blastoise, Gengar, Snorlax, Gardevoir, Lucario, Greninja, and, yes, Mewtwo. Out of a franchise that's coming closer and closer to the 1000 monsters mark, the only Pokémon that I can think of that get more marketing than Mewtwo are Pikachu (the literal mascot), Eevee (whom TPCI has been trying to make into a secondary mascot), and Charizard (literally the most popular starter Pokémon of all time). They wouldn't do that for a Pokémon that's unpopular, and therefore, Mewtwo's popularity is measurable.

not making things willy nilly? Have you been on the Pokemon centre website? Everyone’s got a plush a for some reason there’s a whole line of sitting down Pokemon that includes all the ones without legs. Tpc will make anything. Also marketing is based on lying
And again you’re ignoring the point about how easily data can be skewed. No instead you’d rather laugh at what I say and point out the poor grammar that comes as a result from using a phone which would suggest you’re trying to undermine who you’re debating with rather than the actual point

 

[Sucumbio]

If Mewtwo keeps showing up he's popular by the developers standards of measurement and we all know that's what really matters. Fans second.

 

[fogbadge]

If Mewtwo keeps showing up he's popular by the developers standards of measurement and we all know that's what really matters. Fans second.

maybe you should tell us to move on we’re getting nowhere

 

[dream1ng]

again you are deliberately missing the point in being favour on condescending. A: theres is no true way measure popularity so if we rule out one method we'd be as well to rule them all out and B: being popular is not the same as being the most popular and many of the people who like him probably like other pokemon more

If the backbone of your argument is Greninja will stick around due to popularity, and your proof of said popularity is a poll which produces very inconsistent and unintuitive results year over year, falling back on "well we can't even really measure popularity" doesn't benefit your stance any more than mine.

By your points, Dedenne is more popular than the mascot off which it was based.

But at this point it seems like you've dropped your whole original point and are now trying to discredit all claims of popularity, as if people are so unattuned to Pokemon that they'll get on board with you claiming Mewtwo is some relic of the 90s, when that's obviously not true. If anything, very popular Gen 1 Pokemon are the least likely to shed their stature given both how much more familiar the masses are with that gen, and how much TPC relies on it for marketing.

None of this to say Greninja isn't also a very popular Pokemon, but you've been comparing him to basically the most popular and ubiquitous names in the series. It's almost not fair. But at that level, it's hard to compete with the likes of Pikachu, Charizard and Mewtwo. Which also ties back to my point.

 

[92MilesPrower]

I don’t play Genshin, but all I know about it is that Paimon only should be a food item and nothing beyond that.

 

[fogbadge]

If the backbone of your argument is Greninja will stick around due to popularity, and your proof of said popularity is a poll which produces very inconsistent and unintuitive results year over year, falling back on "well we can't even really measure popularity" doesn't benefit your stance any more than mine.

By your points, Dedenne is more popular than the mascot off which it was based.

But at this point it seems like you've dropped your whole original point and are now trying to discredit all claims of popularity, as if people are so unattuned to Pokemon that they'll get on board with you claiming Mewtwo is some relic of the 90s, when that's obviously not true. If anything, very popular Gen 1 Pokemon are the least likely to shed their stature given both how much more familiar the masses are with that gen, and how much TPC relies on it for marketing.

None of this to say Greninja isn't also a very popular Pokemon, but you've been comparing him to basically the most popular and ubiquitous names in the series. It's almost not fair. But at that level, it's hard to compete with the likes of Pikachu, Charizard and Mewtwo. Which also ties back to my point.

you said we couldn’t use the poll because the data would be skewed. So I’m saying how can we possibly know what data is and isn’t skewed? Your Argument boils down to hes the most popular cause he’s from gen 1 but how do you know the data that lead you to this isn’t skewed as well? Tpc markets it? I don’t know about you but all the corporations out there will market anything they think they can sell regardless of how people will react to it. And as for people saying stuff on the internet well that basically what the poll was so why should that be any different. The point isn’t about who’s more popular anymore it’s about how you can possibly know for certain or why you don’t think any other forms of gauging popularity could be as easily wrong as the poll.

and you’ve yet to answer me that, if the polls data is so skewed which we know due to it getting a different result the second time how do we know all the other ways aren’t skewed as well?

probably doesn’t even matter sakurai will just put in the Pokémon he likes most

 

[Opossum]

Tpc markets it? I don’t know about you but all the corporations out there will market anything they think they can sell regardless of how people will react to it.

You're so close to the point.

Yes. They market things they think will sell well. In other words, things they think are popular. And if it doesn't work out, they stop doing it.

They have never stopped marketing Mewtwo. Therefore, that means they had ample reasons to continue marketing Mewtwo.

 

[fogbadge]

You're so close to the point.

Yes. They market things they think will sell well. In other words, things they think are popular. And if it doesn't work out, they stop doing it.

They have never stopped marketing Mewtwo. Therefore, that means they had ample reasons to continue marketing Mewtwo.

so what they haven’t stopped marketing any of them

in fact they show favouritism in their marketing all the time. They decided scorbunny should be the popular one long before we fans got involved

 

[Opossum]

so what they haven’t stopped marketing any of them

Please tell me you're joking. MOST Pokémon stopped being the focal points of marketing. Very few stick around for the long term. Some never even get marketed at all.

At this point it just feels like you've run out of counterarguments.

 

[dream1ng]

did I say people didn’t like him? I said you can’t prove how popular any of them actually are and that many of his fans may actually like other Pokemon more. Why don’t you actually read a post properly before you get so upset

I never once said he was unpopular I was saying the stats by which you judge it by is probably skewed as well and at this point there’s probably more popular

It's a weird premise that newer characters inherently make older ones unpopular like the entire film industry hasn't spent the last decade and a half being dominated by characters created before color tvs were a thing.

you said we couldn’t use the poll because the data would be skewed. So I’m saying how can we possibly know what data is and isn’t skewed? Your Argument boils down to hes the most popular cause he’s from gen 1 but how do you know the data that lead you to this isn’t skewed as well? Tpc markets it? I don’t know about you but all the corporations out there will market anything they think they can sell regardless of how people will react to it. And as for people saying stuff on the internet well that basically what the poll was so why should that be any different. The point isn’t about who’s more popular anymore it’s about how you can possibly know for certain or why you don’t think any other forms of gauging popularity could be as easily wrong as the poll.

Aggregate evidence like Opossum provided is inherently less skewed because it comes both from many sources across a wide gap of time. It provides variety and longitudinal consistency, which is a big point you were against.

And because most of it was from the creators catering to the audience instead of a vocal sliver of the audience on an internet poll. That latter sort of evidence is fraught with participation bias, which is a factor that empirically skews results. It's why we always reinforce taking Smash polls with a grain of salt.

Also if TPC constantly returns to the same Pokemon in marketing it's because they believe there is a comparatively bigger audience that would be interested in consuming that entity. Which invokes popularity. Are we really going to get into how business works? This is getting ridiculous. Not the least of which because a page or two ago you were extolling the poll because it came from TPC. Now their actions are inconsequential once they stop supporting your argument? Pick a lane.

You've obviously dug in your heels and seem to be grasping for any counterpoint, despite it contradicting your earlier posts, but wouldn't it just be easier to admit Mewtwo is still clearly quite popular?

 

[TCT~Phantom]

maybe you should tell us to move on we’re getting nowhere

Just because you are losing an argument doesn’t mean you can run to a mod to try to change the topic. I would add more to how Mewtwo was the single most requested character between Brawl and Smash 4, but so many others have done so already. Mewtwo is one of the absolute most popular Pokémon, and with how much of a deal Mewtwo was made when he was added back in, I doubt unless the roster gets nuked he would ever be cut again.

either Aether or his twin sister Lumine. you pick one of them as your playable protagonist and the other becomes an antagonist. Ability wise they're both the same, can change elements at a Statue of the Seven. Maybe Paimon appears in their taunts/victory screens?

if not Aether/Lumine, I can see one of the 5 star units making it. Perhaps someone like Diluc, or even the limited 5 star who drove the most revenue both times she ran, Raiden Shogun

Venti's another option, he's the first character you run into (Amber's the first one you interact with) and a very important story character

Yeah, Genshin has options. I would assume Aether and Lumine would be the front runners since they are the main characters, but there are plenty of popular picks to go with at the end of the day.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

We shouldn't be caring which Pokemon is the most popular is anywho. That's just a **** measuring contest.

Once a Pokemon has reached a certain level, being its entered mainstream culture, its iconic status and popularity shouldn't be debated.

Pikachu, Eevee, Meowth, Charizard and Mewtwo are definitely there. I'd argue Gengar, Snorlax, Lucario, Blastoise, Venusaur and Gardevoir are too.

Some Pokemon like Blaziken, Greninja, Pichu and Jigglypuff just barely aren't there, but that's fine. With time, they could be. They're still among the most popular and well known Pokemon. Smash isn't only going to include the most popular Pokemon. Inclusions are decided on a lot of factors.

Like how we got Ivysaur, whom let's admit, even if Bulbasaur and Venusaur are popular, Ivysaur isn't. There are more to inclusions then just raw popularity.

So let's not get defensive and start claiming things that are clearly popular, aren't popular.

Trying to imply Mewtwo isn't popular is like saying Charizard isn't. It's stupid.

 

[Idon]

Actually nobody really likes Mewtwo, there's just one dude over at the Pokemon Company who really loves them.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Actually nobody really likes Mewtwo, there's just one dude over at the Pokemon Company who really loves them.

People argue that for Lightning from Final Fantasy and Rosalina.

People get jealous.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

Mewtwo is actually a secret popularity vampire; every time certain new gen Pokemon start to get momentum, Mewtwo secretly intervenes and steals it.


It's why Shuckle never reached Charizard level fame

 

[chocolatejr9]

We shouldn't be caring which Pokemon is the most popular is anywho. That's just a **** measuring contest.

Once a Pokemon has reached a certain level, being its entered mainstream culture, its iconic status and popularity shouldn't be debated.

Pikachu, Eevee, Meowth, Charizard and Mewtwo are definitely there. I'd argue Gengar, Snorlax, Lucario, Blastoise, Venusaur and Gardevoir are too.

Some Pokemon like Blaziken, Greninja, Pichu and Jigglypuff just barely aren't there, but that's fine. With time, they could be. They're still among the most popular and well known Pokemon. Smash isn't only going to include the most popular Pokemon. Inclusions are decided on a lot of factors.

Like how we got Ivysaur, whom let's admit, even if Bulbasaur and Venusaur are popular, Ivysaur isn't. There are more to inclusions then just raw popularity.

So let's not get defensive and start claiming things that are clearly popular, aren't popular.

Trying to imply Mewtwo isn't popular is like saying Charizard isn't. It's stupid.

And hey, the more time passes, the more some things get more popular. Not everything, mind you, but... maybe there will be a day where Ivysaur is just as popular as Bulbasaur and Venusaur? Unlikely, I know, but time has a way of changing things...

 

[Swamp Sensei]

And hey, the more time passes, the more some things get more popular. Not everything, mind you, but... maybe there will be a day where Ivysaur is just as popular as Bulbasaur and Venusaur? Unlikely, I know, but time has a way of changing things...

We've seen this happen with Pichu. I remember a time when it wasn't popular at all. But over time, people have acknowledged how cute it is and are starting to appreciate it more.

 

[Sucumbio]

I miss wobbuffet.

Bring back all items assists and mons and stuff make it if you'd get a ffa 4 dark Samus and nothing but Metroid items. Do AT Dark Samus ko's everyone haha

 

[SPEN18]

I honestly don't think any Smash from now on will have a roster smaller than 60-70 characters. So if that's around the maximum size, I'd like to hear your thoughts

Okay, so the parameters here are a roster of about ~70 characters, a total reboot with no grandfather priority, and me calling the shots.
Now, I'm not doing a full roster here but just four franchises (and I also don't have the in-depth details on budget/resource constraints like the actual dev team does), so if I were to fully complete this up to 70 characters then some things could change (maybe one of the last couple picks gets bumped or something), but here's more or less what I think it should look like with this roster size. I'll try to list more or less in order of priority, and remember this is more personal preference than what would probably actually happen.
Lastly, I'm not going to include characters from unreleased games, so "Scarlet/Violet rep" and "next FE protag" won't appear here. If you want to imagine them, then they could be either simply added to what I have here or in place of one of the lowest-priority reps.

MARIO
Mario
Bowser
Luigi
Peach
Rosalina
Bowser Jr.
Waluigi
Daisy (Echo)

Toad could just as easily fit in the newcomer slot as an alternative option. Not much boat-shaking here, actually.

ZELDA
Link
Zelda
Ganondorf
Impa
Skull Kid
Mipha

I tried not to cheap out by just putting "a Champion" at the end, but it's kind of a tossup between Mipha and Urbosa. But, on the whole, I think this is just way better than 4's or Ult's Zelda rosters with like the same number of characters. Of course, it's more work with the additional uniques instead of the Links, but I think it could be fit with a roster significantly bigger than base 4. If there is extra room for a second one-off like Midna or Ghirahim, then even better (they would be next up, but I'll be more conservative with the rep count here since this is not a full roster).
The single Link can either be just classic or have the alts split between classic and BotW, while Zelda would be designed more or less as she is in Ult, which I think well-represents her typical look throughout the series. The amount of changes to Ganon/Ganondorf depends a lot on what the rest of the roster looks like and the resources available.

PKMN
Pikachu
Charizard
Lucario
Greninja
Mewtwo
Garchomp
Gardevoir
Blaziken (Echo of C. Falcon)

Overall this is probably the hardest one. Among the other things considered: some sort of thing involving Eevee and/or its evolutions, Gengar, Decidueye, Mimikyu. SwSh I just find it hard to pick a rep that doesn't feel like it's just there to fill the quota; the selection just doesn't quite do it IMO.

FIRE EMBLEM
Marth
Robin
Byleth
Lyn
Ike

I feel pretty strongly about these five, except for having mixed feelings about keeping Byleth over Edelgard. If resources are too scarce for five full uniques, then I guess Awakening could be repped with Lucina as an Echo of Marth (or I guess Chrom if that would still be less work than Robin). In any case, I think it justifiable to just keep one of the Awakening trio; even though Echoes are easy, not including the FE ones could maybe allow for other franchises with less reps to possibly get an Echo character of their own. But, that's right, I think FE can be done well with zero clones.

I think this is mostly reasonable and, even with the cuts, superior to what we've had before. And in a 70-character roster it still leaves over 40 slots for other characters, which at least from a brief look-over I think is just enough. In terms of percentage of the roster, the four series combined would be around what we have now, actually, although the specific numbers vary depending on how you choose to deal with the Echoes. This does skew less towards clones in general, though, which hopefully doesn't hamper the "reasonableness" too much despite this mostly being pure hypothetical regardless.

But, haha, after writing this it looks less like a reboot and more like a proper sequel to 4 than anything else (which is basically what a 70-character "reboot" would be, anyway).

 

[Yamat08]

Another thing is that we know that while Lucario was planned for the game, he seems to have been lower priority. In a Miiverse post that revealed Lucario for Smash 4 Sakurai gave a quick glimpse into Brawl's development by saying that if it wasn't for the work of the team back in Brawl, he wouldn't have made it into the game. Considering we have no similar statement for PT, a fellow Pokemon newcomer who didn't have as much recency, it seems like the idea of having to reserve a slot for a newer Pokemon was not a priority back in that time. Lucario, even if he was chosen for that reason, was a character they were willing to put aside if time and resources did not allow. That is different from Greninja and Incineroar, where they had designated work set aside from them once they decided on the character and probably would've more likely pushed out a character lower priority then be low priority themselves based on how they were talked about.

Leaves me to wonder, if Lucario didn't make it in Brawl, would it have still had a shot in Smash4? I mean, a lot of his concept planning might've already been done, and there certainly have been a number of characters who were held off until a later Smash title (among others, I believe there was Bowser, Dedede, Wario, Snake, Sonic, and I think Steve was more recently stated to be planned for Smash4). However, unlike most franchises repped in Smash, Pokemon is kinda different in that in places a VERY high priority on what's more recent, while everything older typically gets pushed to the wayside.

On that note, I can't help wondering which characters might've been shelved during Ultimate's development, and are currently waiting until Smash6 to finally be realized.

 

[PeridotGX]

Actually nobody really likes Mewtwo, there's just one dude over at the Pokemon Company who really loves them.

"Humankind loves mewtwo 100%" factoid is actually a statistical error. average human love mewtwo 0%. mewtwos george, who loves mewtwo 10000000000000000000000000000000000000%, is a statistical outlier and should not be counted.

 

[SPEN18]

I feel the difference here is that Incineroar was added late not because he was low priority, but because they didn't decide on who to fill the slot it occupied until that point. With the project plan we know that Sakurai sets aside slots until he can fit in a character for it as that happened for Greninja, and once he knows the character they put them into the game immediately with the time and resources they set aside. So it wasn't a case of other characters getting higher priority, but rather the structure of development being plotted in a way that allowed for a future character to be added in the slot they gave for it.

Another thing to note is that unlike Lucario, Incineroar is never noted to have been at risk of being cut. So Incineroar's situation was, at least as far as we're aware, in a better position in the roster and his development potentially went a lot smoother as they were able to get it done in time without any reported hiccups.

Some fair points. I suppose the "holding a slot for a recent mon" thing could've also been done for Lucario, but I don't see any way to really verify that. And, yeah, Incineroar was afaik never noted to be at risk, though it absolutely would not have made it if that was to jeopardize EiH.

--

Would you mind if the next smash game decided to split from his Clown Car?
and what happens is fight with his own unique moveset and some could be shared with the Koopalings
while Clown Car become its own character with the only change being his grab attack and up air and up special due to the fact is not riding him anymore and that would give him a smaller hitbox now as an advantage

I would like Bowser Jr. to be outside of the clown car, yeah. Though the car could still be a part of the moveset like possibly in the side- and up-specials, for example.
I wouldn't want just the clown car on its own, though, no.

--

On Greninja: I would put it in the "very unlikely to be cut, but not impossible" bin. I think dream1ng is right to say that it is not quite in the "practically guaranteed" tier with Pikachu and Zard. I could see its priority being as high as third or fourth among the PKMN vets, but I could also see it being lower than that. IMO the best argument that Greninja won't be cut is its priority relative to the other mons; there's a good argument that Puff, Trainer, Incineroar, Pichu, and maybe even the likes of Lucario or Mewtwo would be cut before Greninja. But of course "other vets would be even lower priority" is not the kind of argument that the "no cuts, no buts" crowd would gravitate toward.

--

On the PKMN 2020 poll: for those that don't know, the 2021 poll that Dedenne won was skewed extremely heavily toward the Japanese audience and was also way, way smaller than the 2020 poll that Greninja won. I haven't worked out any stats on the 2020 poll in terms of the total vote count (although IIRC it was claimed that "millions" voted on it, and Google was also involved in it so it had better visibility than most internet polls), but I think the results look pretty reasonable against what I would expect. Yes, it will naturally skew towards a modern, more dedicated internet audience; that is a fair point to bring up, I think, even if not wholly quantifiable. But the top 5 or so mons for each gen are basically all what most people would expect, with a few caveats here and there like potentially some votes getting split between multiple mons in the same evolution line. So at the very least it's useful confirmation bias and a nifty reference to give an idea of the most popular mons, but exactly how seriously we should take it is open debate.

 

[ZelDan]

If Mewtwo is so popular why haven't we gotten a Mewthree?

Checkmate Mewtwo defenders.

 

[SPEN18]

We've seen this happen with Pichu. I remember a time when it wasn't popular at all. But over time, people have acknowledged how cute it is and are starting to appreciate it more.

Really? My perception is that Pichu's popularity has fallen off hard since the HGSS days and hasn't really recovered.

To back it up with the limited data we have available, in the 2020 poll Pichu was down closer to the likes of Natu and Quagsire than to the absolute highest tiers of popularity, even among mons introduced in gen 2. I don't think that can be chalked entirely up to the skew of an internet audience.

...and lol who was expecting Natu of all things to be mentioned in this thread?

 

[DarthEnderX]

Pikachu > Charizard > Mewtwo > Lucario > Greninja > Newcomer >> Pokémon Trainer (Squirtle+Ivysaur) >> Incineroar > Jigglypuff >> Pichu

Pretty much. Yeah.

Actually nobody really likes Mewtwo, there's just one dude over at the Pokemon Company who really loves them.

Nobody really likes Mewtwo. They just really like Mother 1 Giygas, and he's the closest they can get.

 

[Quillion]

Just throwing it out there:

I've grown to hate discussing "popularity" as a factor in characters getting in Smash, even outside of Pokémon. Popularity as a concept ends up being rather vague and extremely subjective, and people like to think something is more popular than it actually is due to severe confirmation bias in this fandom. I only ever discuss it as I begrudgingly admit it's somewhat of a factor.

Honestly, I'd rather discuss such factors as marketing and recurrent appearances. At least those factors are more concrete and objective.

 

[fogbadge]

I surrender you lot win

 

[Diddy Kong]

Leaves me to wonder, if Lucario didn't make it in Brawl, would it have still had a shot in Smash4? I mean, a lot of his concept planning might've already been done, and there certainly have been a number of characters who were held off until a later Smash title (among others, I believe there was Bowser, Dedede, Wario, Snake, Sonic, and I think Steve was more recently stated to be planned for Smash4). However, unlike most franchises repped in Smash, Pokemon is kinda different in that in places a VERY high priority on what's more recent, while everything older typically gets pushed to the wayside.

On that note, I can't help wondering which characters might've been shelved during Ultimate's development, and are currently waiting until Smash6 to finally be realized.

I could see Lucario make it to Smash 4 if he missed Brawl, I actually think we're due for some new Pokemon fighter that isn't recent but has long lasting popularity, as say Garchomp.

Okay, so the parameters here are a roster of about ~70 characters, a total reboot with no grandfather priority, and me calling the shots.
Now, I'm not doing a full roster here but just four franchises (and I also don't have the in-depth details on budget/resource constraints like the actual dev team does), so if I were to fully complete this up to 70 characters then some things could change (maybe one of the last couple picks gets bumped or something), but here's more or less what I think it should look like with this roster size. I'll try to list more or less in order of priority, and remember this is more personal preference than what would probably actually happen.
Lastly, I'm not going to include characters from unreleased games, so "Scarlet/Violet rep" and "next FE protag" won't appear here. If you want to imagine them, then they could be either simply added to what I have here or in place of one of the lowest-priority reps.

MARIO
Mario
Bowser
Luigi
Peach
Rosalina
Bowser Jr.
Waluigi
Daisy (Echo)

Toad could just as easily fit in the newcomer slot as an alternative option. Not much boat-shaking here, actually.

ZELDA
Link
Zelda
Ganondorf
Impa
Skull Kid
Mipha

I tried not to cheap out by just putting "a Champion" at the end, but it's kind of a tossup between Mipha and Urbosa. But, on the whole, I think this is just way better than 4's or Ult's Zelda rosters with like the same number of characters. Of course, it's more work with the additional uniques instead of the Links, but I think it could be fit with a roster significantly bigger than base 4. If there is extra room for a second one-off like Midna or Ghirahim, then even better (they would be next up, but I'll be more conservative with the rep count here since this is not a full roster).
The single Link can either be just classic or have the alts split between classic and BotW, while Zelda would be designed more or less as she is in Ult, which I think well-represents her typical look throughout the series. The amount of changes to Ganon/Ganondorf depends a lot on what the rest of the roster looks like and the resources available.

PKMN
Pikachu
Charizard
Lucario
Greninja
Mewtwo
Garchomp
Gardevoir
Blaziken (Echo of C. Falcon)

Overall this is probably the hardest one. Among the other things considered: some sort of thing involving Eevee and/or its evolutions, Gengar, Decidueye, Mimikyu. SwSh I just find it hard to pick a rep that doesn't feel like it's just there to fill the quota; the selection just doesn't quite do it IMO.

FIRE EMBLEM
Marth
Robin
Byleth
Lyn
Ike

I feel pretty strongly about these five, except for having mixed feelings about keeping Byleth over Edelgard. If resources are too scarce for five full uniques, then I guess Awakening could be repped with Lucina as an Echo of Marth (or I guess Chrom if that would still be less work than Robin). In any case, I think it justifiable to just keep one of the Awakening trio; even though Echoes are easy, not including the FE ones could maybe allow for other franchises with less reps to possibly get an Echo character of their own. But, that's right, I think FE can be done well with zero clones.

I think this is mostly reasonable and, even with the cuts, superior to what we've had before. And in a 70-character roster it still leaves over 40 slots for other characters, which at least from a brief look-over I think is just enough. In terms of percentage of the roster, the four series combined would be around what we have now, actually, although the specific numbers vary depending on how you choose to deal with the Echoes. This does skew less towards clones in general, though, which hopefully doesn't hamper the "reasonableness" too much despite this mostly being pure hypothetical regardless.

But, haha, after writing this it looks less like a reboot and more like a proper sequel to 4 than anything else (which is basically what a 70-character "reboot" would be, anyway).

Thoughtful reply ! Great I asked you. Great reasons you gave for all the choices you made too. Even if I wouldn't add Waluigi myself or Skull Kid, I think personally I'd opt for Pauline or Captain Toad instead of Waluigi, and Urbosa instead of Skull Kid (as I don't think there's much sense in Skull Kid if Young Link isn't there).

But I especially like what you did with Pokemon. No recency bias, just new Pokemon with strong lasting popularity, as Garchomp, Blaziken and Gardevoir. I personally don't think Blaziken and Gardevoir are too likely, but I'd like them regardless. Garchomp might actually be a character I'll actively support this time, the thought of it in Smash is just cool and I'd like to play as it.

Fire Emblem also has solid reasons , even if I'd personally keep Lucina and Chrom, because why not they're low effort characters who offer something different opposed to the characters they Echo.

 

[Gengar84]

I’ll admit that I’m biased on the subject but isn’t Gengar really high up there as far as most popular Pokémon go? I thought I remembered it winning some kind of big popularity poll as well at some point.