Sorry for taking a while, but since you tagged me I'll try to make some suggestions, at least on the first party newcomers.
Octoling, Waluigi, Impa: all likely, maybe Impa slightly less so.
Toy Link: I think it's a reach; they're more likely to just retain Toon Link and shave Young Link, IMO.
Porky: he is definitely demanded, but in my estimation he's not high up enough to get in as a demand character unless there is also some strong bias towards him by the roster deciders. I think other than maybe Waluigi, Isaac is clear-cut the next "fan demand" first party, though of course there are plenty of others. I know you have Isaac in the "revived IP" spot, but he could do double-duty and fill both categories.
Raven Beak and Astral Chain: I think these will depend a lot on the timing of the project plan. If it is being done like right now, then both of these could get in. If the next Smash isn't until several years from now, then these two will have to hold their relevance for quite a while, which makes them less likely (especially when both have uncertain futures).
Pokemon: time is now for another Sinnoh rep if they ever decided to dip into oldgen mons. As for recent mons, well, I don't want to comment too heavily on characters that haven't even gotten a public reveal yet.
Revived IP: there are so many good options IMO. We'll have to see how it all shakes out, but I supported GS and AW especially even back in the Brawl days.
Diskun: well, it's a reach, but I know you're guessing at this to fill the "surprise character" quota so I won't be too critical.
Lastly, it depends on the timing but I think the next game is far enough away for Noah to be in base.
Hey, it's no problem, I'm happy to recieve any kind of response here! I'll do my best to respond in return here.
Sounds all good with the first three characters, then. Though I wonder, do you think they would be more likely to go with Ocarina/Hyrule Warriors Impa, or Age of Calamity Impa? I feel like those two incarnations have the most fighting potential out of all of them, but I'm honestly not sure which one would be more likely.
Yeah I do agree that Toy Link is a bit of a stretch myself. As I mentioned in the post I made about my original version, I consider Toy and Toon to be interchangable at the moment. If Wind Waker HD gets a Switch port, I'm probably going to bite the bullet and cut Toy/Awakening Link for Toon Link.
For the moment, I'm mainly sticking to Porky not just because of the elimination process I mentioned, but also because I do actually feel there is some Mother bias present within Sakurai's "group" considering we've had things like the Mother series' songlist being entirely remixes, Lucas being prioritized over the other cut Brawl vets in Smash 4, and in general the amount of respect Itoi gets as a game developer, especially in Japan. I believe Sakurai showed up or otherwise did something for a Mother 30th anniversary thing back in 2019, but my memory is hazy on that. I will admit that it's also partially a gut feeling here, and before I really glossed over Nintendo's first-party options going into the next Smash, I actually felt Porky was at a disadvantage due to his exclusion from Ultimate. I guess it goes to show that when it comes to predictions, my opinions can change at the drop of a hat, admittedly.
For Raven Beak and Astral Chain, I will concede with saying that I'm making this prediction under the assumption that the next Smash is only a couple of years away, like 2024-2025 or so. They're definitely the most temporary of the 1st party newcomers on here, though I feel that Officer/Akira Howard would be higher priority thanks to being a new Nintendo IP (even if it's technically an acquisition from Platinum) and the possibility for a sequel being there. As for Raven Beak, if Metroid Prime 4 includes any key characters that rival Raven Beak in impact or popularity (especially if it's Sylux), then I'll weigh my options more carefully on that front.
I think that's a fair viewpoint for Pokemon. I could see something Legends Arceus-related possibly getting in due to that game's high praise, but considering The Pokemon Company revealed Scarlet and Violet not too long after, they're probably already intending to shove PLA out of the public spotlight. I won't make any real predictions on a Scarlet/Violet 'mon until we know more beyond just the base starters.
Agreed with Advance Wars and Golden Sun being two good frontrunners for the revived IP slot. I would've put a Rhythm Heaven character as well instead of Starfy on the image, but I feel that the franchise is currently in more of a weird limbo instead of being actually dead.
Yeah Diskun's an example of my bias showing here, lol. I do think that they'll probably go for another hardware-related legacy character this time, since Plant was kind of a dud to most fans. Though if they do go ahead and try another "common enemy" joke character in Smash 6, my vote would probably go to Shy Guy as a second Yoshi rep.
I'm still considering plotting out a Diskun moveset at some point, though.
As dream1ng mentioned a while back, if it takes a good long while for the next Smash to get announced, I may end up switching Noah and the Pokemon slots, with the Pokemon slot being repurposed as a placeholder for a Gen 10 mon.
Again, thanks for responding to all of this, I really appreciate it. Though I do want to ask, do you have any thoughts on the third-party choices I've made here, or not really?