Data Matchup Analysis #5 - Mario

[LCC Son-in-Law]

LADIES, GENTLEMAN AND PEOPLE OF ALL GENDERS, WELCOME TO OUR FIFTH LITTLE MAC MATCH-UP DISCUSSION.

IN THIS CORNER, THIS WAS AND STILL IS THE FACE OF GAMING, A TRUE DYNAMO OF ADAPTABILITY, PERSEVERANCE AND SKILL, HAILING FROM-...why does this say Brooklyn...? *AHEM* YOSHI ISLAND IN THE MUSHROOM KINGDOM, KNOWN FOR MANY NAMES LIKE JUMPMAN, THE GREAT GONZALES, MARTY-O, MR. VIDEO AND MANY MORE, STARTING OUT AS BUT A HUMBLE CARPENTER AND PART TIME BOXING REF. TO BECOMING THE PRINCESS SAVING, GALAXY EXPLORING, TOY COMPANY OWNING, KOOPA ING OLYMPIAN PLUMBER, THIS MAN AMONG GODS BORE WITNESS TO THE RISE OF OUR OWN CHAMP, DESTINED FOR GREATNESS EVEN AS A BABE, HE'S NO . IT'S-A HIM, MARIO!

CAN THE BRUISER FROM THE BRONX PUNCH OUT HIS OLD FIREBALL SLINGING FRIEND FROM THE RING, OR IS MAC ABOUT TO MEET HIS MARIO MAKER?

Mr. Video, seriously? DISCUSS!

Credit for creating the intro goes to TakeYourHeart . As always, thank you so much for making this opening post! I think this is my favorite so far.
Discussion is due to end on August 16th. I'm giving it a bit more time to discuss so we can have more time to practice this matchup and gather data on it due to the recent patch.

 

[Gavi1195]

This match up in my opinion can go either side, but favor Mario more than Mac. (Please note: This is my experience with the match up.)

"If you can't hold your ground, then it's already over"
In terms of neutral, it's a very even game.Both Mac and Mario don't have a guaranteed approach option, so it's pretty much a game of waiting and pressuring for the other to make a mistake to capitalize on it. However, Mario has more options and they are deadlier than Mac's. One of Mario's BnB is his down throw to U-tilt or Up-B. Little Mac doesn't have the options to combat this combo other than jumping out of it. (Counter works on lower percent on multiple U-Tilts. Neutral B can also get him out of the U-Tilt, but Mario has pretty much days to grab Mac) [Update: Mac can actually Nair into Jab1 out of the grab if he is grab at less than %10] Not only that, but on higher percents, Mario can jump into up air twice, racking up the damage. To add insult to injury, If Mac is on high percent and Mario grabs him, it can easily mean then end of Mac's stock because of Mac's poor recovery. This doesn't mean the situation is hopeless for Mac, but Mario simply has more tools to apply the pressure on Mac should the momentum switch to Mario's favor.

Remember: "Spacing is key to any fight." So "Don't Get Hit"
When it comes to spacing, Little Mac wins.Mario's move don't cover much range and even if Mac pressures Mario's Shield, Mario only has 2 reliable options. Dash attack or grab. If these attempts are read, Mac has access to punishment. Mac through a careful spacing game, can successfully safely pressure Mario. Mario unfortunately does not have the ability to do so reliably due to Mac's frame data. Mac's Jab can also stop Mario's grab attempts. Which just further cements that this fight is one that relies more on mistakes and reads that decides who wins this fight.

"It's time for the C-C-Combo Breaker!!!"
Mario takes this without any doubt. Mario's tools from his grab game to his aerials give him great combo start ups, extenders and even breakers with Nair. Little Mac suffers greatly because this basically forces him to be very careful with his combos. His Necessary D-Tilt combo strings can be easily interrupted with Nair and although the Nair is possible to punish, the situation forces Mac to take a 50/50 guess on if he should take the risk and combo the D-Tilt or read Nair. Mac does thankfully have Super Armor in his smashes so he is able to power through some of Mario's attempts and punish him. However, Mario's trusty cape has saved his life many times and made many people Dizzy with the winds of Salt.

"Is that a bird? A plane? No! It's a me! Mario!!!"
Mario's air game is without question superior. He has many options for any Mac crazy enough to attempt to follow him in the air, not only that, attacks like Nair and D-Air can help secure Mario a safe landing to the stage. To cause even more trouble, Nair actually surpasses Little Mac's Up B. If both attack connect, Mario and Mac will hit each other which can save Mario's life and pressures Mac Up B combo since the timing for the hit to be guaranteed is strict. As for Little Mac...Do I really have to say why he is not going to have a better air game than Mario?

The real difference between this two though is the edge guard:

"Getting them offstage is easy, Making it to stay that way is the hard part"
Mario is almost untouchable by Little Mac. His Up B covers great distance and although Mac can gimp it with F-Air, Mario's Up Frame Data can easily stop and punish Little Mac way before the F-air hits. The only reliable move that can hurt Mario is D-Smash, However, Mario's Up B is extremely quick and can reach the ledge safely most of the time.

Mario's aerials can edge guard Mac, pretty effectively. Especially with F.L.U.D.D. which can really rain on Mac's parade. Not only that, but Mario's cape pretty much seals the deal if it connects.

Overall, The match can go either way. I know that I listed a bunch of reasons why Mario is better. However, like I stated in the beginning, this whole match really depends on who screws up and how badly they screw up. Both characters have the tools to punish each other and win the match should the fight swing in their favor. Mario just has the most and best options. Sorry Mac, I love you, I know that you can beat Mario and stand Toe to Toe against him. But Mario's star is simply too bright.

Winner: Mario

 

[inconspikuous]

point of order, i feel like we need to distinguish between 'for glory' and 'tourney/ladder' matchup knowledge. i don't feel like these matchup analysis threads we've been discussing every week or so are very helpful (at no fault of the OP, i should add). i'd think a thread that purports to be a matchup analysis should have a quick reference as to things like, best stages to take this character to, worst stages, things/jank to expect/watch out for, character-specific opportunities, how to deal with common problems, etc. i find that usually what happens in these threads is basically, 'this character wins vs mac in the air or offstage.' that doesn't really help imo.

on topic, re the mario matchup, i don't really know what the best/worst stages are besides my general guidelines (fd, t&c, bf, castle siege good; sv, delfino, dreamland bad).

re jank, i have a couple notes. at low percents mario will often go for the grab to dthrow>utilt>utilt/upB/usmash. if mac DI/SDI's up, you can often jump away after the first utilt. if you're offstage, don't try to sideB into the fludd or you will die. try to wait for mario to waste the fludd before using your second jump or recovery move (upB or sideB). also, if the fludd hits you while your downB counter frames are active, you will not get pushed back by the water. don't get pressured by the fireball too hard. if they jump/shorthop it, you can often run underneath the fireball and punish. marios that approach with from the air will often frametrap their aerial landings into jabs, so don't get baited unless you're sure you'll get the punish. often this means that if they crossup and hit the back part of mac's shield, it's unsafe to drop shield to try to punish. if they nair and hit the front of your shield, they will either do their jabs (which you can safely punish only if they complete all three hits on shield), or go for a grab, in which case you have to react and spotdodge. if you know for sure they're going to commit to attacks, most of mario's approaches can be shut down with a simple run back and pivot fsmash. it will superarmor every aerial, his sliding dash attack, and if they don't read the run away before the pivot smash, it will punish a whiffed grab. if they don't commit, though, they may empty hop or nair out of range and punish you. and yes, if you get caped offstage, you're screwed, so always try to sweetspot the ledge. and make sure to mix up your ledge option, as if you get read on a roll-recovery, you will get upsmashed.

you can punish mario's shielded fsmash with a jc usmash if in range, or a shield-drop dsmash. be careful, though, because the new shieldstun may close the punish window quicker than you think. also, it is a lot harder to punish with an fsmash because the hitbox comes out a couple frames slower, and those frames make it possible to powershield the attack and punish you. around 95%-120%, you can try to grab mario by the ledge. if you dthrow and they mess up the DI (that is, if they don't DI or DI towards mac/the stage), you have a guaranteed kill in upB. at 110%ish, if you can connect a jab1, upB will close the stock. if you need a couple more percent, you can try for a jab1/2>dtilt>upB, which is a true combo at higher percents. also, after say, 50%, dtilt>ko punch is probably not reliable as they may get popped up too high and you will whiff. i would suggest going for jab1>ko or jab2>ko at higher percentages.

tl;dr wall of text: DI up and jump to escape utilt string. don't contest fludd with sideB. run back>pivot fsmash covers a lot of mario's options. mix-up ledge recovery. dsmash is quicker than fsmash. upB can close stocks on messed up DI after dthrow. jab>ko is more reliable at higher percentages.

 

[jet56]

oh boy i didn't miss the discussion this time! anyway, as usual, ill split it up into the 3 phases for each character, and give an analysis for both followed by a synopsis.

NEUTRAL
k, lets get this out of the way. Mario can't approach for crap against mac. his only 2 solid approaches are a empty hop or an aerial. he COULD run up dash attack or shield, but those are both punishable by an ftilt or super armor smash attack. so how does mac punish an aerial? usmash. how does he punish an empty hop? usmash. if its an aerial, he super armors it, if not, you get a free smash attack. mario has to get really creative in his approach game, and gets outspaced by mac easily if you are using p pivots and dash dancing of course. mac can straight up walk up to mario, and start pressuring him with jab, dtilt, ftilt, p pivot ftilt and utilt, and DownFsmash if you are looking for shield breaks. Mac doesn't care if mario is throwing out dairs or bairs or nairs, and mixing it up with a single or double jump aerial or empty hop. Little mac has one answer: usmash. yes you could wiff it, but only if you are rash and impatient. even if you do wiff, Mario may not have enough time to get in for a punish. the only real danger is a dash or shield grab, but that's only if mac is misspacing, or throwing out unsafe moves. Mac being played smart typically walks over mario in Neutral.
FOLLOW-UP
Mario's follow ups are ridiculous. a single grab can net him 50+ percent if done right from 0. it can lead to kills, gimps, and almost always gives him stage control. no need to list his strings and combos, we all know it. In short, if Mario finds a way to win neutral, he will almost always get a follow-up. While mac has a large scale advantage in neutral, he also has to win it multiple times before netting a stock, since his followups on mario are subpar. and since mario is a midweight, only a few combos and strings are helpful to Mac. dtilt follow ups are what you are looking for, and they can string into different things at different percents. Low percents are dtilt>ftilt or dtilt>side b. mid percent is dtilt>p pivot u tilt>usmash or up b. high percent is your dtilt>fair strings, or a dtilt>smash attack if you are baiting out a air dodge. kill percent is your dtilt>jc up b, this combo is true if done right. besides that, there isn't a lot of other strings for little mac on mario. the good news is that macs main combo tool, spacing tool, and safest move are all packaged into dtilt, and will win him neutral the most often. just make sure to follow up, as mario will punish you if you aren't playing right, and potentially kill you after one grab.
EDGEGAURDING
lets give a list of moves each character has to edgeguard the other with:
Mac:
Dsmash
Fair
Dair>footstool
Nair>footstool
Bair
ledge trump
Run off side B

Mario:
Fair
Dair
Nair
Bair
F.L.U.D.D.
Cape
Ledge trump

TBH, i might be missing some for both, but these are the moves most commonly used for both parties. Mario can edgeguard more effectively than Mac can, but mac has multiple options too as well. for Mario, his job his easy, predict a low or high recovery, and punish accordingly, in all honesty, he really doesn't even have to mix up his tools when he edgeguards, as it all does the same thing to mac. Mac can punish a low recovery up b with a run off side b or ledgetrump, to either grab the ledge or hit mario. fair is for a mario recovering high, bair for a mario recovering under the stage, run off nair or dair to footstool if you see him recovering low, and you are looking to net a stock. (pet peeve of mine, little mac has more than one way to edge guard, and shouldn't be afraid to run off stage to get a kill, i want to kill this misconception about him.) Mario still holds an advantage in this phase of the game though by far, as he has a 50-50 chance of predicting macs recovery, while mac has to read marios recovery, and see if he recovers low for a ledge grab, recovers low but goes over the ledge, recovers high, or uses cape to stall before using his up b or just jumping.

Overview:
Mac has all the tools to win, but can't afford mistakes, or he will get punished by Mario severely. i would compare this to the Captain falcon/Marth matchup in the fact that mac wins if the player plays almost perfect and slowly chips away, but mario needs mistake or unique mixup to get in and net a stock. i would give this a 60/40 mario's favor, since mac has to work harder than mario does to win here.

 

[miniada]

Hello I'm from the mario boards and would like to talk about mac. 65:35. Mario never has to be passive when fighting mac. Fludd can stop him from approching. He can combo him and has a superior air game. And we all know the famous Bthrow to cape and or fludd. However mac completely laughs in the netural since mario has no effective approach options against mac.

 

[TakeYourHeart]

Rule of thumb for early to mid % for Mac: Never use Jolt Haymaker early on to ensure your recovery. Mario will either Cape or FLUDD you out. Just double jump and go for a ledge grab. Really, Jolt Haymaker is only safe as a recovery option if Mario is on the other side of the stage, but even unsafe options have to be used if it means you have a chance of living.

Everyone else has covered what needs to be said. Try to keep it in Neutral while getting what hits you can in. The shied stun added by the most recent patch makes it so that Mac has less odds of being punished, but Mario still only needs to make it happen 2 to 3 times to secure a stock.

 

[Axel311]

Edit: Oops didn't realize this thread was 1 year+ old. lmao.


To me this matchup has always seemed clearly in Mario's favor.

Neutral is kind of a wash. Mac has his ground mobility, kill confirms and super armor to take advantage of Mario's lack of disjoints.

But what really stands out here is how badly Mac gets bodied off stage by Fluud. At higher percents just hitting Mac with Fluud by itself will push Mac too far away to get back to ledge. With or without double jump. At most other percents it seems to be a 50/50 situation with Fluud connecting and then following up into either a double jump or counter read with an aerial or cape connecting on Mac causing a gimp, or little mac surviving by landing a counter or getting an airdodge. Mac really can't use side B to get back ever. Fluud can gimp it, or it can just get caped. Or both, it can pretty easily get Fluud to caped.

And Mario will have Fluud charged all the time for free on pretty much every stage but FD, as Mac can't do much about Mario running away to a platform to charge it.

On top of that, like all characters Mario can cause Mac a lot of issues by platform camping if he has a solid lead, forcing an aerial approach by Mac or by going for a timeout. Mario will want to keep the fight at the ledge or in the air, and Mac really can't force the fight away from platforms or the ledge unless he has the lead.

It seems like Mac needs to slightly outplay Mario in netural, as well as guess right on those 50/50 gimp situations when offstage in order to win.

Whereas Mario often doesn't even need to win neutral because he wins by so much offstage.

Mac does have KO punch, which can effectively cancel out a gimp by Mario. But he shouldn't be landing it very often with proper passive play by Mario while it's active.

60:40, or +2 in Mario's favor in my opinion. Mostly because of Mac's really bad disadvantaged state. Maybe I'm overrating Fluud here, but I don't know of any way for Mac to consistently recover in the matchup. They're pretty even in the neutral otherwise, KO punch doesn't make up for it.