Captain Falcon is a pretty easy match-up to finish anyway. We know Falco has the advantage, but just need to spend a little time to discuss what are the options each has.
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Falco = run away bird
Falcon = a real man
Thus it is easy to see that Falcos trumps Falcons.
Falcon has no reliable approach on us. All of the approaches he has are answered to by some method that Falco has. This in combination with the camp champ, means Falcon will have a hard time getting any hits on us. But if he does he can somewhat juggle Falco and take advantage of Falco's poor recovery to get a KO. Captain Falcon on the other hand has a very predictable recovery, but a good one. His 2nd jump is easy enough to gimp with lasers, but the annoying UpB will require us to punish it repeatedly before Falcon is far enough offstage that he cannot recover back onto the stage.
Falcon's ground approaches are pretty easy to list: Side/DownB, and dash attack. Also, mindlessly running at you somewhat like what sonic can do. Those are all straight forward approaches that are easily shielded against and can punish in the ending lag. But most CFs should be mixing up how they attack anyway instead of straight on approaches like that.
Falcon's Aerial approaches are is safer methods as most auto cancel upon hitting the ground when down with the correct timing. Falcon's Knee can do this when activated directly from the ground into a jump. It won't be a sweetspot, but it's enough that can land almost laglessly and lead into his jab. Nair and FFing an Uair are other methods he as on approach. None of which are very lethal. With proper spacing lasers will eat through jumping, and shielding will block all of them easily.
The problem with CF lies in his CQC game only because his approaches are just horrible. Once Falcon gets inside our defences he will try to mix it up with defences (shielding, rolling, dodging) and attacking (jabs, grab, dtilt). All of this is avoidable with proper spacing as our jab and ftilt can outspace his attacks, and rolling, dodging, shielding can be predicted like another character falco faces. If Falco does get hit and proped into the air, he will be chased down with Falcon's Uair, Nair, Bair and occasionally Fair. If you are low to the ground and or at low percents you might be followed up with a special attack from Falcon.
Falcon too is easy to juggle, as most of his methods of avoiding you are to simply jump or airdodge. His attacks in the air on defence aren't easy to hit with while your Nair and Bair beat him out.
Overall, CF knows he has the disadvantage and will try to pull you into areas where you'll mess up which he will respond by punishing you. If you play where he makes the first move all the time and respond accordingly to his methods he won't be too difficult to deal with. Falco has all of the tools to do it.
I'd say it's 65-35 or 70-30;Falco. Even though we can respond to anything CF does, he can take advantage of Falco's weaknesses which are recovery, opportunities to kill and being lightweight.
For stages, BF, SV and FD are easily Falco's favor. A few platforms will only give CF a better chance to hit you will, but it will be hard for him to get into the spot in the first place. YI I believe would limit Falco the most out of neutrals simply because of the terrain limits Falco's lasering and phantasm. Not really sure about counterpicks for what CF might use to his advantage.
