Now that the game has been out for a few months, I feel I can make this thread with a modicum of confidence. So far Lucas has felt entirely underwhelming in Smash Ultimate. I'm going to attempt to articulate why I feel this way and how I believe this can be improved.
Lucas has no combo game. That's not to say Lucas doesn't have damage racking/kill combos, because he does, but none of them are reliable or consistent. Lucas's best combo tools are landing uair, sweetspot bair, short hop dair, and dtilt. The problem is that none of these moves are good neutral moves.
Uair has a really small hitbox, making it a terrible approaching aerial. This small hitbox also makes it difficult to reliably combo an opponent.
Bair has lots of startup, and requires the sweetspot to spike. The sweetspot is located close to Lucas (which is the inverse of all his other sweetspots so why this move is different is beyond me) which makes it a poor approach option.
Short hop dair has awful range and landing lag, and is easily punished with an aerial or when shielded. It can also be really difficult to follow the opponents DI.
Dtilt is super small, and Lucas isn't fast so it isn't reliable to use it as a running tilt.
This limits Lucas's interactions in neutral to landing stray hits with fair, PK fire, and the occasional zair or tilt, and Lucas simply doesn't have the damage output to win like that. I strongly believe a large part of the reason Lucas's kit is so awkward and dysfunctional is because of the changes to his nair. His nair is unusable. It has pathetic range, unreliable followup potential, no good drag down setups (especially compared to the insanity Ness can pull off with drag down uair and drag down fair), and does next to no damage. In smash 4, his nair racked up damage and set up edgeguards very reliably, and now nair is gone without a tool to replace it's function.
The other reason is that Lucas's grab game sucks until kill percents. In smash 4, sitting in shield against Lucas's zoning and aerials would be your downfall because a down throw meant eating an easy %40-50. In ultimate, Lucas has no throw follow ups at any percent so his grab game is hardly a threat (until kill percents, where it admittedly really outshines the rest of the cast).
Lucas's zoning is also very limited. His zair range was nerfed into the ground, and PK freeze'a arcing trajectory makes it exceptionally poor at mid range zoning. His tools almost seem to lean more toward an aggressive close quarters spacing character who only occasionally plays the spacing game with projectiles, but he doesn't have the frame data and range to do so effectively.
The removal of his tools was not properly compensated in the transition between games. PK freeze, for all it's absurd power, is extremely predictable and reactable. His stronger fair and PK fire don't make up for the neutering of Lucas's damage racking game. PKT2's initial hit connecting with the others doesn't matter because opponents fall out of it more often than not, leading them to punish my successful read.
The only strength he has that really shines is his edgeguarding, but his kit lacks the tools to really set up for a grimy edgeguard.
Maybe I'm missing something big and I'm playing Lucas all wrong, but... he almost feels like an incomplete character.
Lucas has no combo game. That's not to say Lucas doesn't have damage racking/kill combos, because he does, but none of them are reliable or consistent. Lucas's best combo tools are landing uair, sweetspot bair, short hop dair, and dtilt. The problem is that none of these moves are good neutral moves.
Uair has a really small hitbox, making it a terrible approaching aerial. This small hitbox also makes it difficult to reliably combo an opponent.
Bair has lots of startup, and requires the sweetspot to spike. The sweetspot is located close to Lucas (which is the inverse of all his other sweetspots so why this move is different is beyond me) which makes it a poor approach option.
Short hop dair has awful range and landing lag, and is easily punished with an aerial or when shielded. It can also be really difficult to follow the opponents DI.
Dtilt is super small, and Lucas isn't fast so it isn't reliable to use it as a running tilt.
This limits Lucas's interactions in neutral to landing stray hits with fair, PK fire, and the occasional zair or tilt, and Lucas simply doesn't have the damage output to win like that. I strongly believe a large part of the reason Lucas's kit is so awkward and dysfunctional is because of the changes to his nair. His nair is unusable. It has pathetic range, unreliable followup potential, no good drag down setups (especially compared to the insanity Ness can pull off with drag down uair and drag down fair), and does next to no damage. In smash 4, his nair racked up damage and set up edgeguards very reliably, and now nair is gone without a tool to replace it's function.
The other reason is that Lucas's grab game sucks until kill percents. In smash 4, sitting in shield against Lucas's zoning and aerials would be your downfall because a down throw meant eating an easy %40-50. In ultimate, Lucas has no throw follow ups at any percent so his grab game is hardly a threat (until kill percents, where it admittedly really outshines the rest of the cast).
Lucas's zoning is also very limited. His zair range was nerfed into the ground, and PK freeze'a arcing trajectory makes it exceptionally poor at mid range zoning. His tools almost seem to lean more toward an aggressive close quarters spacing character who only occasionally plays the spacing game with projectiles, but he doesn't have the frame data and range to do so effectively.
The removal of his tools was not properly compensated in the transition between games. PK freeze, for all it's absurd power, is extremely predictable and reactable. His stronger fair and PK fire don't make up for the neutering of Lucas's damage racking game. PKT2's initial hit connecting with the others doesn't matter because opponents fall out of it more often than not, leading them to punish my successful read.
The only strength he has that really shines is his edgeguarding, but his kit lacks the tools to really set up for a grimy edgeguard.
Maybe I'm missing something big and I'm playing Lucas all wrong, but... he almost feels like an incomplete character.