Let's talk about 2015 - "Decline" in Melee?

[1MachGO]

I'm gonna start by showing some tourney results (open the following spoiler):

Spoiler

Apex 2013 (~January 11-13, 2013)
1. Armada (Peach)
2. [PPMD] (Falco, Marth)
3. M2K (Marth, Sheik)
4. Mango (Falco, Fox)
5. Shroomed (Doc)
7. Hax (Falcon)
7. KirbyKaze (Sheik)

Evo 2013 (~July 12-14, 2013)
1. Mango (Fox)
2. Wobbles (ICs)
3. Hungrybox (Puff)
4. Armada (Peach)
5. [PPMD] (Falco)
5. M2K (Sheik,Marth)
7. Ice (Sheik)
7. Doc (Sheik)

Apex 2014 (~January 17-19, 2014)
1. [PPMD] (Falco, Marth)
2. M2K (Sheik, Marth, Fox)
3. Mango (Falco, Fox, Puff)
4. Leffen (Fox)
5. Hungrybox (Puff)
5. Colbol (Fox)
7. Fiction (Fox)
7. Soft (Puff)

SKTAR 3 (~May 31 - June 1, 2014)
1. PPMD (Falco, Marth)
2. M2K (Sheik, Marth, Fox)
3. Mango (Falco, Fox)
4. Armada (Peach)
5. Hax (Fox)
5. Westballz (Falco)
7. SFAT (Fox)
7. Zhu (Falco)

The key detail is the character variety during 2013 vs. the character variety during 2014

MLG 12 Qualifiers (Not rankings, but these players will comprise most of the top 16 at MLG)
1. M2K (Sheik, Marth, Fox)
2. Mango (Fox, Falco)
3. Hungrybox (Puff)
4. PPMD (Falco)
5. Leffen (Fox)
6. Remen (Falco)
7. Armada (Peach, Fox?)
8. Hax (Fox)
9. Zero (Fox)
10. Soft (Puff)
11. Amsa (Yoshi)
12. Westballz (Falco, Fox?)

The prospects of 2015:

Fox and Falco Dominance?
Even if no spacies make it out of the gauntlet at MLG, the top 8 at MLG is extremely likely to contain an abundance of Foxes and Falcos. This is a stark change in character representation between 2013 and 2014 and the trend of "Fox/Falco saturation" is likely to continue throughout the triple crown and into 2015. If Leffen, SFAT, Westballz, Hax, Fiction, Colbol, etc. continue to produce better results than floaty mains, 20XX may come into realization. Especially if M2K quits Melee for Smash 4 and if all of the Foxes prove too much for Hungrybox to handle... top 8s in 2015 will be less varied than ever.

Smash 4 vs. Melee
Now I definitely don't expect Smash 4 to kill Melee, but it would be naive to say that it wouldn't simmer down the hype for Melee's platinum age. The real question is what Evo/MLG will do. Will Melee get another year alongside Smash 4? Will Smash 4 oust Melee for the spotlight? Regardless, we will probably lose players at the lowest levels.

The culmination = a decline?
So we might lose some new players and we might see a domination of spacies at high level competition, but will the combination of these occurrences ultimately cause a decline? I don't want to propose such a negative concept since Melee is more popular than ever, but I am legitimately afraid of this occurring. If Melee simultaneously loses interest and becomes Fox vs. Falco at high level, the game will have a bad image and slowly discourage its veterans from continuing to play it.

What does everyone else think? Do you see this happening? Is there something we can do to prevent it? etc.

 

[OneShot]

I believe that most of the competitive community will slowly migrate toward Project M or another central competitive outlet for smash.

 

[LLDL]

Spaces winning isn't a decline, it's a beautiful thing. The players who work the hardest are finally winning, would you look at that.

 

[herbmaster%]

it's not surprising that project m is gaining hype (balanced roster, more playable stages, custom music), but peeps won't forget melee. it's the perfect official installment of ssb for the smash community. I think brawl will be dropped long before melee is.

 

[The Prince: SDJ]

Two things here 1: If were going for hardwork, wait for the icies to get real good, they definitely work the hardest with desycnching. Look at Wobbles at Evo, showing what hard work can do. 2: There won't be a large decline in 2015, mindgames will improve to deal with spacies and other characters that are more technical. Mindgames will have to expand and the tier list will get closer, as low and mid tiers slowly rise as top tier's max out their technical potential. The stage list may also change.

 

[JKJ]

Fox becoming far more prominent in recent times is, I submit, a direct result of the popularity of the 20XX meme/mindset. It used to be that Hungrybox loved the Fox matchup, and Armada as well, but now that they are being beaten and outplayed by Mango and Leffen, they have copped out and basically johned by complaining about and/or switching to Fox (for some matchups, in Armada's case. They simply say "what can I do, it's Fox" instead of saying what they used to say: "How can I better outplay and read my opponent to beat Fox?" The 20XX meme has spawned a degenerative trend in smash, where players feel it is a legitimate excuse to blame their character. What has happened since some players have switched to Fox? Hax has basically maintained the same level, just outside of top level, and Armada still can't beat Leffen. People saying that Fox is unbeatable are just lazy, and their laziness is validated by the widespread acceptance of the 20XX meme. I'm more and more hearing character johns and complaining from players, and I'm less and less seeing them actually improve. If people just accepted that all characters and players have weaknesses and the best players are the ones who know how to expose and abuse those weaknesses, we'd be far better off. And no, I am not trying to argue that Fox and Falco aren't the best, or that everyone is viable, or any other such exaggeration. All I'm saying is that if you play a top 8 character, stop complaining. If you play a lower character and can't find success, maybe that character isn't for you. But look what comes of a good mindset and a great player, even with a sub-par character: aMSa emerges, Axe emerges, Plup, Darrell, Abate, Eddy Mexico, and Shroomed all emerge. They come not from their characters but from fundamental skill, practice, knowledge, and a good mindset.

tl;dr No johns, 20XX is only damaging as an idea, get better.

 

[rjgbadger]

20XX is one of the most toxic memes to exist in the smash community

 

[EnigmaticScarecrow]

You could also say that newer players will migrate to Smash 4, as it's likely to be better than Brawl, and "easier" than Melee, so they will hope for more success, but I still doubt Melee will die.

And I 100% agree on the affects of 20XX on the community. Fox/Falco are no doubt very viable characters, but saying things like they're "unbeatable" is definitely creating a downward trend.

 

[Elyssa Xey Hexen]

Lots of this will depend upon how well done Smash4 actually ends up becoming. I started with Brawl and never understood melee player concerns seeing it at first. Now having switched over to melee for the past like 4 years I see a number of reasons why its not as appealing as melee. Brawl has seemed to decline a bit (at least in comparison to major gaming events going on this summer). If the success is high enough, I believe there will be another slot for Melee in MLG/EVO potentially next year at least.

P:M's success I see being a huge maybe. Its a community driven hack and I believe is downright illegal. You can say you have a hackless version, but when you download to your SD card you contain bits of code/data that was produced by Nintendo. The fact it was distributed for free and without permission from Nintendo I believe constitutes a copyright infringement. There is nothing wrong with hacking your own system for personal usage as once you bought you the disc and wii. However, by getting the distributed SD card data from the P:M group this violates most likely some copyright that nintendo has. For that very reason P:M will never reach MLG/EVO sponsorship unless Nintendo some how adopted the P:M ideal.

In this regard, Melee will very much be alive for at least well into 2015 despite Smash4 being out.

 

[Watofu]

You can say you have a hackless version, but when you download to your SD card you contain bits of code/data that was produced by Nintendo.

IDK how true this is
Does PM actually contain code produced by nintendo? AFAIK everything that goes onto the SD card is original. Character models and such are still read from the Brawl disc.
Except M2 and Roy I guess. They're copyrighted by nintendo but the particular models aren't. I don't think that would be a problem.

 

[FrenkM0J0]

There are just too many people out there that support melee hardcore for the game to really die in the forseable future. Also, amsa's and yoshi really help the community upsetting the scene as foreigners.

 

[The Prince: SDJ]

I really hate to say this, but the US scene needs to lose to the world at one of the crew battles to stop the 20XX meme because most of the world uses characters other than fox or Ken and Azen need to come back with that new marth meta. Azen showed it's possible to beat a really technical falco with marth at xanadu

 

[Thor]

20XX is one of the most toxic memes to exist in the smash community

Then we should start a new meme! I propose 20YY - "Falco, no items, Yoshi's only."

Seriously though, you think MELEE has problems? I wish Brawl could complain that "we might see a decline at some point in the future, or at least a lot more of two characters and a smattering of a few others"... it's more like "With Project M and smash 4, are we even going to have a scene at all, even if it is only MKs and ICs and the random Snake/Olimar/Diddy [/maybe a few others...]?" You have the "it might be centralized", Brawl has "it's probably already mostly centralized, we just have to keep it alive."

I think Armada may be working his Peach back into shape to try to deal with Mango and co., but lacks confidence to use it in all player MUs, and Hbox having problems with Leffen and Mango or whatever doesn't mean he won't still knock out most spacie players - he beat M2K 3-2 at GOML, and it was one error from a clean 3-0. Armada also beat Mango at Super Sweet yesterday, though I missed what actually happened in WF.

The US can probably diversify who it uses - Hax'll need to bring the Falcon, M2K is no spacie, Hbox is a Puff, we can play Axe and Shroomed (probably), PPMD can go Marth if it's a big deal (but three spacies is not a huge issue)... play Plup or Hugs too? I don't think losing one crew battle will help, but the US could also just diversify who it chooses so that we have only one or two spacies on the team.

 

[Ginger Hail]

Melee's definitely not going to have a sudden drop in popularity. If Brawl didn't kill it, then I doubt Smash 4 will. I do think people will be willing to give it a try though, but it'd take a few years before Melee would drop off the radar completely.

 

[EPsilon933]

Fox And Falco Dominance
That might be a good thing. Fox and Falco are more fun to watch than floaties. And they're more fun to play as and against. Character balance isn't as important as players seem to think it is

Smash 4 vs. Melee
Is Smash4 is good, let Melee at worst die. The tournament scene could become phenomenally popular when that game releases. EVO and MLG will pick up Smash4, not Melee. Wii U has HDMI ports making it easier to play on monitors. Monitors are easier to transport and setup than CRTs. According to 1 of Gandhi's (Former Halo pro) videos, 85% of the revenue competitive gaming leagues make are from stream advertisements. They will stream the games that promise the most views. Everyone's going to want to see the cool new Smash game. EVO and MLG want to make profits to continue doing what they do

The culmination = a decline?
The veterans of this game will always love Melee. Just like there are veterans of Street Fighter and Marvel Vs Capcom who love their imbalanced prequels. Chuns and MSSs everywhere, respectively, were not at a bad thing. They're honestly exaggerations of the imbalance just like what you're saying with Fox and Falco

 

[BTmoney]

I'm gonna start by showing some tourney results (open the following spoiler):

Fox and Falco Dominance?
Even if no spacies make it out of the gauntlet at MLG, the top 8 at MLG is extremely likely to contain an abundance of Foxes and Falcos. This is a stark change in character representation between 2013 and 2014 and the trend of "Fox/Falco saturation" is likely to continue throughout the triple crown and into 2015. If Leffen, SFAT, Westballz, Hax, Fiction, Colbol, etc. continue to produce better results than floaty mains, 20XX may come into realization. Especially if M2K quits Melee for Smash 4 and if all of the Foxes prove too much for Hungrybox to handle... top 8s in 2015 will be less varied than ever.

In the last handful of years tourney results haven't been all that different. Mango, PP, hbox, and m2k win everything in the states and are pretty much guaranteed top 8 and higher. I don't see this as a real problem anyways. People just play the characters they want to play and no one is stopping you from playing who you want. Look at players like Hbox, Armada (remember that he's doing this with a freaking peach), Axe, Amsa, old Hax, S2J, Pewpewu, Shroomed. All amazing players and took non-spacies to the highest level. I guess I don't see the point in pointing this out unless you just want to talk about it.

Smash 4 vs. Melee
Now I definitely don't expect Smash 4 to kill Melee, but it would be naive to say that it wouldn't simmer down the hype for Melee's platinum age. The real question is what Evo/MLG will do. Will Melee get another year alongside Smash 4? Will Smash 4 oust Melee for the spotlight? Regardless, we will probably lose players at the lowest levels.

Smash 4 will probably outshine melee because a new rush of people, probably the size of our entire community or bigger will be playing it, a lot. If it somehow had a lot of competitive depth and a little bit of speed to it then maybe it could be the melee killer. If that doesn't happen then melee will be perfectly fine and continue to grow. We've came a long way. We are the hardcore demographic really. Think about it, we're playing melee in 2014. So most of us are cult-fans and aren't going to stop playing this game to pick up a new one that probably won't be better. I see a LOT of brawl players, pretty much the entire community, going to smash 4. Hell I'm gonna play it, but melee is first.

The culmination = a decline?
So we might lose some new players and we might see a domination of spacies at high level competition, but will the combination of these occurrences ultimately cause a decline? I don't want to propose such a negative concept since Melee is more popular than ever, but I am legitimately afraid of this occurring. If Melee simultaneously loses interest and becomes Fox vs. Falco at high level, the game will have a bad image and slowly discourage its veterans from continuing to play it.


What does everyone else think? Do you see this happening? Is there something we can do to prevent it? etc.

We're already the hardcore demographic so I'm not worried about it. Things would have to get EXTREMELY stale for this game to decline.

I believe that most of the competitive community will slowly migrate toward Project M or another central competitive outlet for smash.

No way that's happening lol. melee is growing too fast and I honestly do not believe PM is the future of smash. I think it's just a game that a lot of people will enjoy. If there is ever a 1000 man PM tourney then there will be a 3000 man melee one. Now a PM equivalent for smash 4 is an interesting prospect.

 

[TheGoat]

I believe that most of the competitive community will slowly migrate toward Project M or another central competitive outlet for smash.

join date: 2014
posts: 5

no.

smash 4 will have as much effect as scrubbing a pile of **** to remove the stank will. Melee has a huge powerful community and it's probably going to continue growing.

 

[Sarej]

join date: 2014
posts: 5

no.

smash 4 will have as much effect as scrubbing a pile of **** to remove the stank will. Melee has a huge powerful community and it's probably going to continue growing.

I lurk quite often so don't **** on my post count but remember when everyone was like "Oh ****, Brawl, looks great etc.", well that changed the instant the game was picked up. With Smash 4 I'm relatively sure they'll add competitive elements and mechanics back into the series and if they do and do it successfully, we will most definitely see a huge competitive scene for that game.

 

[Bones0]

Who remembers when Puff was an unstoppable force in Melee? I remember telling the same people who are now johning about spacies that Puff isn't broken and that they just need to let players adapt and evolve. For a community that touts the phrase "no johns", there sure are tons of johns. If you really think spacies are the only way to win, then either accept you'll never win or change characters. That's what Armada and Hax have done and it's payed off plenty (oh wait, they've only done worse since switching, nvm). No one wants to hear your excuses.

Then we should start a new meme! I propose 20YY - "Falco, no items, Yoshi's only."

There is already "20eggeggs" for aMSa, a player who doesn't seem to give a **** what the tier list says while still playing to win.

 

[Varist]

first everyone was complaining about seeing so many boring ass floaties in finals, peach and puff campfests, now you want to complain that people are playing spacies wtf

i know that you want character diversity for some irrational reason like "but w-what if ppl who dont even really play the game but see it dismiss it because they dont like seeing star fox characters?"

who gives a **** what someone who doesnt even play the game thinks of how entertaining our game is, they don't play wtf quit trying to "fix" your games meta for the public eye

personally i think a nothing but spacies universe is infinitely more appealing than a nothing but floaties and camping universe

falco and fox forever noobs

 

[EPsilon933]

Smash players complain about everything

The appeal to the public eye is kind of important. Before EVO, fighting gamers hated on Smash all the time. Then they gradually began to like us and gave us a chance to have our game featured at their super-big tournament. Then the scene got flooded with new players because of the simple exposure to like 1,000,000 players. MLG's doing the same thing too, helping bring in a few new players to our scene. We need to network with other communities to grow. Even if we don't get new competitive players, we can still get new followers of competitive play which supports the service providers of the scene like streamers. GIMR's main job is or will be running VGBC

 

[The Star King]

join date: 2014
posts: 5

no.

Trying to discredit someone's argument using their join date/post count like this is dumb and you should feel bad.

(I shouldn't even have to say this, but I've actually seen this sort of thing numerous times over the years so apparently it's not obvious to people somehow)

 

[Kadano]

Smash 4 is gonna suck. All hail Melee!

And yeah, what Bones0 wrote.

 

[Doomolish]

Melee will never die.

 

[Chesstiger2612]

I think there will be more counterpicking going on as the metagame progresses. Lets imagine two TASes fight each other, we would probably have something like
GAME 1 - Battlefield - Fox vs Fox
Now, the loser of this match could choose a stage where every character has an unfavourable matchup, so Final Destination because there it is Marth>spacies>Sheik>Marth.

This was just an example how mastery of multiple characters can get you serious counterpicking advantages and you see this more and more, I believe there will be more cps in 2015

 

[EPsilon933]

I think there will be more counterpicking going on as the metagame progresses. Lets imagine two TASes fight each other, we would probably have something like
GAME 1 - Battlefield - Fox vs Fox
Now, the loser of this match could choose a stage where every character has an unfavourable matchup, so Final Destination because there it is Marth>spacies>Sheik>Marth.

This was just an example how mastery of multiple characters can get you serious counterpicking advantages and you see this more and more, I believe there will be more cps in 2015

Tell that to Mew2King. He'll tell you it's far better to invest all of your skill into a single character than to have multiple mediocre ones. Humans have limits

 

[Chesstiger2612]

Not in 20XX. Also you can practice a character only for a specific matchup. I think though that at the highest level of competition either you are a spacie or a multimain on the longrun.

 

[Bones0]

Not in 20XX. Also you can practice a character only for a specific matchup. I think though that at the highest level of competition either you are a spacie or a multimain on the longrun.

I can't think of a single high level spacie that doesn't have a secondary.

 

[1MachGO]

I can't think of a single high level spacie that doesn't have a secondary.

All players at high level have some skill with multiple characters but I would say that PP and Kels are the only ones who seem to utilize "true" secondaries in addition to spacie mains. SFAT, Fiction, Leffen, SilentWolf, Colbol, Chillin, and [recent] Hax seem to be straight up Fox. Zhu, Mango, and Westballz use both Fox and Falco but I wouldn't really consider that "traditional" secondary use.

 

[Ausp]

Melee HD on the Wii U anyone?

 

[The Star King]

Zhu, Mango, and Westballz use both Fox and Falco but I wouldn't really consider that "traditional" secondary use.

How on earth is Zhu/Mango using the other spacie for specific match-ups not traditional secondary use?

 

[1MachGO]

How on earth is Zhu/Mango using the other spacie for specific match-ups not traditional secondary use?

If you are maining a character with a clone, developing the skills needed to use your main's clone isn't as difficult as developing an entirely different character. While the reasoning is identical, I feel that Mango's use of Fox and Falco isn't as "pure" of secondary usage as PP's usage of Marth and Falco. Its really just a semantics thing.

 

[Elyssa Xey Hexen]

Hmm.... I would disagree with this aspect. Pretty much all clone characters are inherently different enough that you need to play with them differently. That in itself requires you to be playing a different character entirely.

 

[Chesstiger2612]

I can't think of a single high level spacie that doesn't have a secondary.

You are right, but lets say in theory a spacie could do it without secondary, although maybe against Marth on FD this is disadvantegous

 

[JFB (JurgaBurgaFlintines)]

I honestly do hope that Melee lives on even if it's for a few more years. I mean, look at Smash 64. It's been 15 years yet it's still going strong.

 

[♡ⓛⓞⓥⓔ♡]

I believe Smash 4 will be simply a gateway to Melee for many, just like Brawl was. Smash 4 is not going to 'kill' Melee, quite the contrary. It will eventually attract more players into the scene. Once Nintendo has made their money and the hype reduces people will go back to Melee - not to mention P:M. I do not believe Smash 4 will have any more success as a competitive game than Brawl did. The game is much slower, lacks Melee's combo system and apparently - technical depth.

Needless to say, I do not think Melee will ever 'die'. Melee has merely begun to get recognized as the competitive game it is - not to mention the fact that e-sports are becoming increasingly popular. I 'see' - that what we've witnessed so far is merely the beginning of an era. Sure, there might be periods when the game is played less but I simply do not see people ever to stop playing the game.

As for Fox/Falco - I believe you are correct. Falco as a character has been 'fleshed out' quite nicely, however, Fox has been not. I believe Fox is superior to any character in the game and we will the implications of this in the future trends of tournament results. Personally, I find it fascinating as I truly feel Fox can still be pushed much further as a character. The implications of Fox being the best lead people to look for strong counters - such as Marth - and thus develop the meta-games of other characters.

 

[EPsilon933]

I do not believe Smash 4 will have any more success as a competitive game than Brawl did. The game is much slower, lacks Melee's combo system and apparently - technical depth.

Needless to say, I do not think Melee will ever 'die'. Melee has merely begun to get recognized as the competitive game it is - not to mention the fact that e-sports are becoming increasingly popular. I 'see' - that what we've witnessed so far is merely the beginning of an era. Sure, there might be periods when the game is played less but I simply do not see people ever to stop playing the game

Just because it's not as good as the best in the series, doesn't mean it will do worse than the worst game in the series. Smash 4 looks promising to be better than Brawl

Melee has begun to be recognized, but Melee is part of the Smash series. There's a sequel releasing soon. Competitive gaming leagues almost always use the latest games in a series because they will almost always have the most viewers watching those games. According to a video uploaded by Gandhi, a former Halo 2 and 3 pro, 85% of the revenue competitive gaming leagues make is from online viewership. There are a lot of gamers somewhere in the middle of the casual-competitive spectrum who watch tournament videos and streams who don't go to tournaments, and probably would never. VGBC has 48, 876 followers on twitch as of this post. Are there really THAT many players out there in our scene who play Melee and Project M (combining both for an optimistic estimate). The numbers for viewers and players are much bigger in bigger games, or at least for viewers (FPSs don't have very strong grassroots tournament scenes, for example). MANY casual-competitive gamers are much more interested in the new game to the series. How often are gamers interested in seeing and playing a game that's 13 years old vs a new one that just recently released? Melee is not going to survive in big esports leagues because it is not going to surpass Smash 4's viewership popularity. Also, Gamecubes and Wiis with Gamecube controller ports are pretty difficult to find in stores. New players could simply buy new Wii Us anywhere

There will no doubt be die-hard fans of the game who'll still play it for years later. This is happening with Smash64, Super Street Fighter 2 Turbo, and Street Fighter 3 3rd Strike in Japan. Compare those struggling cases to games like Street Fighter 4 and UMVC3.

 

[♡ⓛⓞⓥⓔ♡]

Melee has begun to be recognized, but Melee is part of the Smash series. There's a sequel releasing soon. Competitive gaming leagues almost always use the latest games in a series because they will almost always have the most viewers watching those games. According to a video uploaded by Gandhi, a former Halo 2 and 3 pro, 85% of the revenue competitive gaming leagues make is from online viewership. There are a lot of gamers somewhere in the middle of the casual-competitive spectrum who watch tournament videos and streams who don't go to tournaments, and probably would never. VGBC has 48, 876 followers on twitch as of this post. Are there really THAT many players out there in our scene who play Melee and Project M (combining both for an optimistic estimate). The numbers for viewers and players are much bigger in bigger games, or at least for viewers (FPSs don't have very strong grassroots tournament scenes, for example). MANY casual-competitive gamers are much more interested in the new game to the series. How often are gamers interested in seeing and playing a game that's 13 years old vs a new one that just recently released? Melee is not going to survive in big esports leagues because it is not going to surpass Smash 4's viewership popularity. Also, Gamecubes and Wiis with Gamecube controller ports are pretty difficult to find in stores. New players could simply buy new Wii Us anywhere.

I feel I understand your view and the point you are intending to convey.

The bolded section is where - I feel - we disagree.
I simply believe that Melee is the more exciting game of the two to spectate - the major reason being the fast pace of the game. Initially, Smash 4 will receive attention/popularity - just like Brawl did. However, I believe that in the grand scheme of things the impact of 'Smash 4' on 'Melee' will be very similar than that of Brawl's. The community will grow and players migrate from one game to another - in this case - from 'Smash 4' to 'Melee' eventually. Smash 4 will develop a competitive meta-game and it will benefit the Smash scene as whole (partially thanks to Nintendo for pushing out their game at this time).

To answer your question: (How often are gamers interested in seeing and playing a game that's 13 years old vs a new one that just recently released?)

Rarely. The keyword in your query is 'recently'. What happens after the 'hype' for Smash 4 passes? What will people do? I believe they will go back to Melee because that is the game they have most fun playing and watching. I see 'Smash 4' as a blessing to the Melee community. It provides us with (yet) another opportunity to show people the game we love - not to forget other games in the series and the associated communities. In short, I believe Melee is & will be the superior competitive game of the two. Therefore it will be the game mostly played and spectated by the competitive community - in the long run, that is.

"Competitive gaming leagues almost always use the latest games in a series because they will almost always have the most viewers watching those games."

This is true. Whether or not Melee will be 'dropped' out of EVO/MLG in favor of Smash 4 is irrelevant in the long run. People will continue to play Melee and host tournaments no matter what happens. In my opinion, the history of our community is a testament to that. I believe the staff of larger events recognize Melee's position as a spectator game by now. They will also understand that no matter how many games will be released in the series 'Melee' is the one that the majority of people are - and will be - most fond of. Smash 4 will be interesting to spectate at first because it is new and exciting. However, the game's lifespan as a competitive game will be short-lived.

Also, Melee will be released on Wii U's VC. It will make financial sense to Nintendo. I do not see a problem in people buying Wii U's, unless I missed your point?

E:

"Just because it's not as good as the best in the series, doesn't mean it will do worse than the worst game in the series. Smash 4 looks promising to be better than Brawl."

As a competitive game? I disagree ^_^ However, it will be exciting to see.

 

[hariooo]

Don't worry about Smash 4 tournaments guys. Nintendo will just ask for it to be at EVO/MLG 2015 to replace Melee, same way Brawl did.

 

[EPsilon933]

I feel I understand your view and the point you are intending to convey.

The bolded section is where - I feel - we disagree.
I simply believe that Melee is the more exciting game of the two to spectate - the major reason being the fast pace of the game. Initially, Smash 4 will receive attention/popularity - just like Brawl did. However, I believe that in the grand scheme of things the impact of 'Smash 4' on 'Melee' will be very similar than that of Brawl's. The community will grow and players migrate from one game to another - in this case - from 'Smash 4' to 'Melee' eventually. Smash 4 will develop a competitive meta-game and it will benefit the Smash scene as whole (partially thanks to Nintendo for pushing out their game at this time).

The reason it happened with Melee-Brawl was because Brawl is such a bad sequel. When games get sequels that don't suck ultra hard, almost no one goes back to the prequel. The only other case where this has happened is ST-HDR. Both are really good and for some reason, the players have gone back to ST. I've heard it was because balance updates didn't balance it well and that it attracted almost no one new to the scene. Anyone who knows the reasons better is free to correct me

When Brawl released, the Melee community's size got cut in half. Half of them jumped to the hugely popular Brawl for like 6 months. Then players began to hate it and either converted back to Melee or went to other new competitive games like Street Fighter and Marvel

I don't think Smash 4 will suck anywhere nearly as hard as Brawl. The game looked much better than Brawl and I know at least Redd's been saying that Smash 4 has combos in it

To answer your question: (How often are gamers interested in seeing and playing a game that's 13 years old vs a new one that just recently released?)

Rarely. The keyword in your query is 'recently'. What happens after the 'hype' for Smash 4 passes? What will people do? I believe they will go back to Melee because that is the game they have most fun playing and watching. I see 'Smash 4' as a blessing to the Melee community. It provides us with (yet) another opportunity to show people the game we love - not to forget other games in the series and the associated communities. In short, I believe Melee is & will be the superior competitive game of the two. Therefore it will be the game mostly played and spectated by the competitive community - in the long run, that is.

Even years after Smash 4's release, Smash4 will be much fresher on the minds of casual gamers with some degree of interest in the competitive scene (Let's call them casual-competitive to give them an easier name to call them). Smash 4 will be bigger because there will be a snowball to support it. It will have the most players and the most prize money. Top players would likely want to convert to that game that's fun-but-not-as-fun because it's money. This happened in Halo 4's community. Top players have quit the game for COD because that's where they can make their living on. Streamers will want to stream Smash 4 because that's what'll generate the most viewers and money. Videogamebootcamp has streamed less of Melee because Project M gets lots of viewers. It'd be impossible to find the quote, but I think it was GIMR who said it himself (correct me if I'm wrong). People are going to be seeing and thinking about Smash 4 much more than they will think about Melee

Melee's not going to die instantly. It's just that it will not be the primary competitive Smash game

"Competitive gaming leagues almost always use the latest games in a series because they will almost always have the most viewers watching those games."

This is true. Whether or not Melee will be 'dropped' out of EVO/MLG in favor of Smash 4 is irrelevant in the long run. People will continue to play Melee and host tournaments no matter what happens. In my opinion, the history of our community is a testament to that. I believe the staff of larger events recognize Melee's position as a spectator game by now. They will also understand that no matter how many games will be released in the series 'Melee' is the one that the majority of people are - and will be - most fond of. Smash 4 will be interesting to spectate at first because it is new and exciting. However, the game's lifespan as a competitive game will be short-lived.

I doubt Smash 4 will be short lived. Look at Brawl. It sucks and yet there's still people playing it and it's been 6 years so far. But it is gradually dying now. Players are waiting for Smash 4 to replace it. Smash 4 has combos. I know at least Redd has said it himself. Have any of use been at the Best Buy Smashfest to try the game for ourselves?

Also, Melee will be released on Wii U's VC. It will make financial sense to Nintendo. I do not see a problem in people buying Wii U's, unless I missed your point?

E:

I forgot about the virtual console

"Just because it's not as good as the best in the series, doesn't mean it will do worse than the worst game in the series. Smash 4 looks promising to be better than Brawl."

As a competitive game? I disagree ^_^ However, it will be exciting to see.

What makes you think it will be worse than Brawl?