Is Brawl Intended To Be Profitable?

[Toastmeister]

Black coffee in my hand and Smash on my mind (as per usual), I caught myself thinking over some of the less exciting aspects of our beloved franchise - Namely, the financials.

Now, I think it's safe to assume that Brawl will very easily, and very quickly, become synonymous with Wii-ownership. After Wii Sports, SSMB is surely going to be a Must-Own (and only because the former comes with the machine), this is arguable of course, but I doubt I'll find hot debates here. The first run of disks is surely going to generate lightning-bright revenue, en masse - and the rate of purchase isn't likely to slow down for some time. Even considering the forest of programmers, artists, and share-holders which'll need to see some paychecks - Not to mention the production costs - A game with such pounding inertia is going to break even within a very short time, undoubtedly.

However, Brawl deigns to make a lot of costly promises - Extensive server support, a possibility of patches, and a stage per day! For these boons to operate kindly, they will need to carry on even after the next flavour hits the gamer tongue - and long after Brawl loses its comet-like momentum (assuming it ever does). Were this a feature of Xbox Live, it would not be a problem - as membership costs would see a fraction travelling to pay for these blessings. The realm of Online Wii, however, is a free ride - no cost, no problem - We have to put up with Friend Codes but our wallets don't. As such, the upkeep of such features would likely put a drain on net profits after a fair period of time.

It's my belief, consequentially, that Nintendo isn't using Brawl exclusively to generate the proverbial 'mad stacks'; Said stacks will assuredly accumulate nonetheless, but note that the full intent does not rest there, or so I hypothesize.

Unlike Napoleon or Hitler, Ninty has made it a grand priority to learn from the mistakes of others, as well as themselves. My intuition tells me that the Big N has taken a page from the book of Gamecube, and made it a full-on point of looking to bolster their newest addition to the console library, lil' Wii.

My theory, if I may use the word to its limit, stands on the idea that Brawl exists to not only sell itself, consoles and accessories too, but perpetually spark a fascination with its worryingly-fad-like goldmine - thus keeping it from approaching GCN fashion.

Now mind you, I have rational evidence to go on for pages, but I'd rather keep this relatively short, if I may use this word to its limit as well, for the sake of discussion and submittal. I'm aware that it may not be incredibly revelatory, or even particularly intriguing - But I'd like Smashers to know that there's more to speculate upon than Lucario & Alt. Costumes.

Feel free to tell me I'm an idiot, at least then I'll know someone bothered to read down this far - I'd be terribly flattered.

 

[Lunaretic]

Well, profitability wise, I doubt it's too much trouble, the ammount of support actually ammounts to fairly little in financial terms.

The servers are only going to be performing matchmaking and (maybe) content distribution to a minor extent, the big hit, of game hosting, it likely going to be done in a P2P environment, and not a server-peer model.

The Stage/etc. a day is most likely going to be distrubuted peer-to-peer/torrent style, and either chosen from the submissions of stages by someone in the company or by an automated system, either way, amounting to little actual cash requirement.

The general fact that it will help promote the Wii significantly in the minds of consumers and people who were skeptical before is also a huge help. The act of having a 'truly competative, hardcore game' with support, rings great bells of sympathy with many of the Wii's detractors, who feel it is only a 'kiddy' system, with players who only play a single player adventure mario-type game. Plus they can always release additional professionally made stages or the like over the Wii store and attempt to generate extra revenew that way.

 

[Eaode]

Well, I'd imagine Brawl online wouldn't take that much upkeep. Maybe take 20-30 minutes a day for someone to decide the stage of the day, and if any problems come up they can just deal with the individually and move on. (That's assuming that the stage of the day is actually hand picked. It'd seem stupid otherwise, and you'd probably get crappy stages.)

The continuing online features of Brawl should definitely not be a problem to its profitability. Unless they intend to keep it running forever. But they'll probably just shut down/convert the Brawl servers once Smash 4 comes out.

 

[Magically Enhanced Hobo]

Hmmm, that was the greatest read I've had on these boards in a long time. Very well written indeed.

I'm going to agree that Nintendo is looking for more than a quick buck with Brawl, but realize that Melee was -the- best selling game on the Gamecube, and people were buying it weeeellll into the Gamecube's lifespan. It's safe to say that Brawl will be the same, and with Wiis still selling out everywhere as soon as they arrive at stores(at least where I live), this trend is likely to continue. With that in mind, I think adding such great features pays for itself, even if they have to add new stages and send screenshots every day.

Also, keep in mind that Nintendo does not make the screenshots or levels. Rather, people submit them, and some guy probably picks the first one he sees, pushes a button, and at once everybody with an internet connection will receive these things. I really don't think it will cost a lot of money or effort. As for patches, if they do appear, they will surely be rare enough that they won't be a huge hassle either.

Again, great thread, but methinks it's going to get lost in a few minutes, because as you said, most people here are more concerned about debating Ashley, or whether the Red Alloy means Captain Falcon is back, than in this kind of discussion.

 

[mushroomedmario]

think how many people bought a wii just for ssb, and then they bought 4 gamecube controllers, and other games just because it would be a waste of a console just to have it for ssb (i know from last gen)

I think nintendo would make a huge amount of profit for nintendo, and costs for a stage a day can't be that much.....for all we know it's just a stage that's selected randomly from a bunch of submissions(sp?)

 

[Coselm]

It's interesting that you brought this up, because last night someone made a thread about patches and I said there will probably be very few if any at all because it is not a wise economic decision for Nintendo.

I believe that Brawl will be one of Wii's best selling games, if not THE best selling game. Dishing out a little extra cash to keep the Brawl online experience rolling will, in the long run, pay for itself. An online community means that even after the extensive single-player experience is completed, and even if you live alone in Antarctica, Brawl will still have infinite replay value. For many games that has been a key selling factor, and the fact that Brawl is online certainly won't hurt sales.

To conclude, there is no doubt that Nintendo is banking off of this game. Just look at the title of the one thread that says "Amazon.jp (or w.e) sold out of Brawl preorders." If Brawl is selling out like that in Japan, and I'm sure it's worldwide sales will be good too, then I'm sure Nintendo is more than capable of giving us free online play and downloadables.

 

[stepmaniers13]

I'm going to jump in real quick about the stage-a-day thing.

Odds are it will be automated, considering the ones doing the stage creating is the consumer, and the only thing anyone has to do is make sure the stage isn't horribly mangled (of course, this isn't a priority, seeing the "Traps" stage) or offensive (because you know people will make a stage that consists of blocks in the shape of a foul word or a *****). This also applies to pictures and replays and whatever else is able to be sent to Nintendo. Then again I saw a Mii with the face of a ***** on Check Mii Out channel so who knows what they will do when it comes to that sort of thing.

As for multiplayer, there won't be anything server-side that needs to be set up, and if there is it would just point to other Wiis connecting to the same service. Only other things the servers would need is custom content (see: stages, pictures, the like), so server maitenance is excellent, and considering it isn't a full-fledged service a la Xbox Live, if a server went down the remaining servers wouldn't be overloaded that much to begin with, leaving online still going.

So in regards to maitenence and such for servers online, there isn't much to worry about in cost. As for patching, we don't even know if patches will exist for Brawl, considering I've yet to find a Wii game that has its own patches.

 

[FireWater]

I'll keep it simple.

Nintendo is not like Microsoft or Sony, who have other divisions that can turn a profit for them. Nintendo is a console/handheld company that have many franchises but no other divisions such as TV, radio, or other electronics.

Every console/game that nintendo puts out they plan on making a profit on. Super Smash Bros Melee was the 2nd most profitable game for Nintendo on the Game Cube, and Super Smash Bros 64 was the 6th most profitable.

Nintendo has to release products that turn a profit. I truthfully think you are overemphasizing server cost/maintenance for the online game.

Blizzard maintained Battle.net for free YEARS before World of Warcraft came out (monthly subscription fees $$$) I feel that Nintendo, who is Japan's 2nd largest company behind only Toyota, can EASILY do the same.

Sorry but your argument while well thought out, does not correspond with reality.

 

[Toastmeister]

Shyikes, I'm seeing more good points than an arrowhead museum. You're all terribly right though, I highly doubt this game is going to go in any direction but straight to the bank (Where they'll cash a large check - of profits!).

All brilliant reparté aside, it's certainly notable to state that Brawl is going to be a huge boon for Nintendo, and likely the gaming industry as a whole.

Masterpieces like SSBB and Metal Gear Solid 4 are giving rise to a new kind of video game - the Masse Contributor sort. In a new twist on Brian Wilson-style development, we're seeing bigger and bigger teams. This new trend is proving, once and for all, that an armada of hands can be applied to this industry - and it seems to be just as worthwhile, cashflow-wise.

This new pattern of game construction really could lead to a new era of development, one that's just as magnanimous as that phrase was cliché.

 

[Toastmeister]

I'll keep it simple.

Nintendo is not like Microsoft or Sony, who have other divisions that can turn a profit for them. Nintendo is a console/handheld company that have many franchises but no other divisions such as TV, radio, or other electronics.

Every console/game that nintendo puts out they plan on making a profit on. Super Smash Bros Melee was the 2nd most profitable game for Nintendo on the Game Cube, and Super Smash Bros 64 was the 6th most profitable.

Nintendo has to release products that turn a profit. I truthfully think you are overemphasizing server cost/maintenance for the online game.

Blizzard maintained Battle.net for free YEARS before World of Warcraft came out (monthly subscription fees $$$) I feel that Nintendo, who is Japan's 2nd largest company behind only Toyota, can EASILY do the same.

Sorry but your argument while well thought out, does not correspond with reality.

I'm not a programmer, I can admit to being just a bit wildly ignorant of the price tag on server costs. And just as such, I'm starting to realize that I may need to mend my stance just a bit.
Allow me to shift my spondee onto the word "intent" - I'm simply begging the question, is there more to Brawl than profit?

 

[Zek]

I think you're reading into it too much... What you said basically adds up to "Nintendo is using Brawl to pull in a profit." Certainly it makes them money in more ways than just the $50 spent on the disc. But I don't really see a difference between "sparking a fascination" and "$$$$$$$." Everything leads back to either selling the game or selling more Wiis, and by extension even more games. They'll probably also make a nice mint on Gamecube/Classic controllers for this game.

 

[DeuceBlade]

Brawl will profit, stage thing is random.

 

[supa*]

Great refreshing topic by the way, it was in no way "boring".

The main factor that has changed from the 'Cube to Wii is the new crowd of faces that came with said transition. The question is: will it attract the non-gamer just as much as it did to the core Nintendo fans when Melee came out?

There are already worrying proofs that may say Smash won't be as large a success as it's previous installment. For example: The serious lack of attention towards Zelda: Twilight Princess, though it wasn't expected to sell through the roof, it was lower than Nintendo predicted would happen to one of their staple franchises.

Even Super Mario Galaxy has had a hard time picking up steam in this new wave of gamers. It's initial sales were looking very meak - especially when compared to Super Mario Sunshine. Thankfully, this was all happening in the most extremes in Japan (AKA backwards crazy media country).

Will Brawl sell? Yeah, no doubt. Will It be successful in terms of expected selling rate? Who knows... This new world of media where cheap ports and minigame collections sell and well developed software doesn't is a confusing place to me.

 

[chaos_Leader]

If you've ever gone to Japan, you'll have noticed a few things. (I've traveled abroad to several countries for extended periods, including Japan) In my experience, the Japanese people as a whole are the most persnickety, most single-minded people I've ever met; the streets are nearly spotless, the air is very clean and there is hardly a smidgen of graffiti on the walls. Whatever One's craft is, be it sword-making, robotics, automobiles, sushi or video-games, One will not settle for anything less than perfection, it's some kind of Japanese tradition of excellence. Sony doesn't make the games for their PlayStation consoles (as far as I know anyway) they simply provide the electronics, Sony is a home electronics company after all. Nintendo makes the hardware and the software, and they are just like the stereotypical Japanese craftsman I have described: dedicated, hard-working and really persnickety about their work. It seems Sakurai also has a similar stance on workmanship. Nintendo's first priority is to make a profit, but right up there alongside profit is Nintendo's (and ultimately Japan's) tradition of excellence.

Basically, they're in it to make a the best game they can, if they manage that, the profits will take care of themselves

 

[Zek]

Also, the daily features like stages and screenshots is something that wouldn't cost them anything. Just pick an employee with a light schedule, show him the list of submissions and tell him "Here, pick a decent one every day." It would take them 5 minutes. Certainly maintaining the servers isn't free, but compared to the gains from having Brawl online I'm sure the cost will always be marginal.

 

[Toastmeister]

Something I'd like to highlight about my beliefs, is the period of time issue. My stance will likely be wholely irrelevant until several years after Brawl - After purchases of the game begins to trickle down, being sold to new owners alone. I doubt I'll find much argument when I state that the players who go beyond the casual call of duty will still be playing - Online or otherwise. Will server costs and upkeep still be worth it when reprised revenue starts to lessen?
It's from this basis that I form my ideas: That Super Smash Bros. Brawl may be there for more than the cash it generates on its own, and that it might be built to keep people interested in the console beyond its fad years.

 

[Zek]

Something I'd like to highlight about my beliefs, is the period of time issue. My stance will likely be wholely irrelevant until several years after Brawl - After purchases of the game begins to trickle down, being sold to new owners alone. I doubt I'll find much argument when I state that the players who go beyond the casual call of duty will still be playing - Online or otherwise. Will server costs and upkeep still be worth it when reprised revenue starts to lessen?
It's from this basis that I form my ideas: That Super Smash Bros. Brawl may be there for more than the cash it generates on its own, and that it might be built to keep people interested in the console beyond its fad years.

Keeping people interested in the console means more cash for Nintendo. It's all about profit. Online play is a huge selling point in Brawl, and the cost of server upkeep is just a necessary sacrifice to gain all those sales. It's an insignificant amount compared to Nintendo's huge warchest. What alternative do they have? It's not like they can just shut down the servers. People who buy a Wii to play Brawl online will later go on to buy more Wii games as they come out years from now.

 

[FireWater]

I've never had the pleasure of going to Japan, but I can definitely understand their mindset.

Nintendo isn't stupid, they've been making video games for quite some time, and depend on those profits unlike MS and Sony. Brawl is supposed to be the highest grossing Wii game (we'll see of course) how could it not be for profit? Any extra accessories that are purchased are a bonus, as the game only really requires a Wii mote to play.

I do expect to see a larger increase of GC controller sales.

 

[maxpower1227]

Doesn't it cost like 10 cents to press a DVD... maybe a few bucks to package it? I assume Nintendo is making a substantial profit on every single game disc sold, and even if only 25% of Wii owners get this game, that's, what, 3.5 million copies of a $50 game, and counting?

 

[Zek]

Doesn't it cost like 10 cents to press a DVD... maybe a few bucks to package it? I assume Nintendo is making a substantial profit on every single game disc sold, and even if only 25% of Wii owners get this game, that's, what, 3.5 million copies of a $50 game, and counting?

Err, they do have to pay people to make the game you know...

 

[FireWater]

Publishers do not take in the $50, retailers get a mark up as well. Typically the publisher sells a $50 retail price game for $25, and then the distributor marks it up $10 ($35) to the retailer. Retailer sells it for $50 to net $15 profit.

**** distributors messing everything up.

 

[Toastmeister]

Just in case I messed up on my syntax in the original post, or if I may have crossed over my pentameter and misled anyone, I am not saying that Brawl exists solely to bolster the Wii, or that profit exists to Nintendo as merely a tidy bonus; My point is a little more convoluted than all that.

What I'm stating, quite simply, is that SSBB may have more diverse monetary applications than simply the net profit of sales. Breaking it down this far, the whole thing kinda' seems trite after whittling it so far, so if you could simply use this post as a point of mending for the real thesis.

Believe me, I know that Brawl is gonna' be an absolute goldmine for the Big N. Don't be surprised if Sakurai finds a new moniker in Ma$ahiro.

In retrospect, the game's probably broken even already - considering the rate of pre-order. However, with the multitude of shares that'll need to be paid out, and the cost of keeping such a massive beast of employees on staff for two and half years, it's possible that they'll be in the red for some time.

 

[Kowz]

Wait!.......what?

 

[Toastmeister]

Wait!.......what?

This rings bells of about three million screenshot-subtitles from the Dojo.

 

[Ojanya]

I see exactly where you're coming from on this. However, even if they weren't TRYING (which is basically the whole point they make a video game) they surely would. Not to say that's your argument. If Nintendo is making a game this big, even if it's among many other reasons, one of them is SURELY to make money.

This is one of Nintendo's biggest Franchises, and even if it sucked, I'm sure people would still buy it. We know for a fact that it doesn't suck. So, if it doesn't suck, there is other reasons for making it indeed.

 

[Kadian]

Great topic!

I concur with the sentiments of others here, who have stated various reasons Brawl will turn a large profit. I'd also like to add one I haven't seen previously stated (though obvious): Brawl will sell becuase of it's mass appeal. At the risk of sounding like I'm lecturing, allow me to elaborate.

Someone said before that cheap ports and minigame collections seem to dominate Wii sales. This seems to be because easy party games sell so well to the emerging casual crowd that own Wiis, and because on the developer side, they are so easy to produce. Some also stated the disappointing sales of traditionally popular Nintendo franchises on the system, like Zelda and Mario, no matter the quality, is a discouraging sign for hardcore gamers. A simplified summation: Cheap party games sell, while long-standing icons with time consuming development cycles suffer.

However, I think Brawl overcomes this trend in two ways, both rooting from Smash Bros. core design. First, Brawl is a part of a franchise that depends on its gaming icons, like Galaxy and Twilight Princess before. Yet, it encompasses so many of Nintendo's famous faces, dare I say, it trancends all of the company's old-school titles, in terms of mass appeal. By having Mario and Link, Fox and Pikachu, and even Sonic and Snake, any seasoned gamer, enthusiast, or casual fan of any one of these momorable characters looking for an even remotely adequate game will highly consider Brawl.

Second, and more importantly, Brawl Is A Party Game! Surprise to those who lurk Smashboards at the top of every hour, looking for the next great tactic or broken combo to pwn with at local tourny. Smash Bros. was dreamed up by those guys at Nintendo who made such franchises as Mario Kart, Mario Party, and Mario Tennis. The idea was to throw together famous game heroes in a kooky, crazy multiplayer format, this time in the familiar realm of 2D fighters. Take Street Fighter II, mix in Nintendo faces, add some silly noises and funny moves, sell millions. If IGN is to be believed, Nintendo actually thought so little of the scheme, they "farmed' out the task to 2nd party developer HAL Laboratories. Thusly, the project got in to Sakurai's hands, and the rest is history.

Getting back on topic, Smash Bros., from the classic-mario inspired platforming controls, to the simplistic hold-a-direction-press-a-button fighting system, to the cute characters and bright, charming stage designs, was developed since the the beginning to be an easy, quirky party game, a design philosophy still easily recognizable in Brawl, the 3rd installment.

That isn't to say Smash Bros. isn't a fast, deep, versatile fighter, or is a child's game. Sakurai's team have taken great lengths to make each successive game have a satisfying level of challenge and allow layers of depth and skill to arise with the increasing level of freedom they afford us.

This is the Smash Bros. series greatest strength: it is a fun, colorful, simple-to-play yet offbeat take on the normally overdone and tired fighting genre, while still supplying the hardcore with a deep, well-developed competative environment. The best of all worlds, in more than one way.

Again, great topic!

 

[Thi0s]

The fact that everyone is writing paragraphs in this awesome topic is prompting me to create one as well. I think it is clear that to every single successful businessman, the first rule is the profit. Without the profit, nothing else can be accomplished considering the saying "Money makes itself." Nintendo obviously has the same mindset, but I think it is assured that they will indeed make a profit incomparable to anything else the Wii has seen before.

Since Brawls money issue is basically non-existent, all they have to do is worry about the quality and how to keep it fresh so that the replay value is endless. And to think, they already came up with this with the introduction of almost every single Game Mode available on Wifi(and Co-op). With that, Brawls profits would probably be able to pay for every online luxury within the first year.

To sum it up, Yes Brawl was made to make profit but the quality of the game will allow it to last endlessly and to appease all the fans like us .

This topic makes me happy

 

[Chaosblade77]

This has to be the most intelligent topic I have seen in this subforum. Now I will probably post and ruin it.


Based on figures from other Nintendo sales, it's very safe to say Brawl will be profitable in the end. The Wii, for example, sold for a profit in all regions it was produced. The US Wii bundle that Nintendo released makes about $50 profit per sale. Considering they have over nine million sales in the US alone, that is over (hold your breath) $450,000,000 total profit, just from Wii consoles, just in the US.

It's safe to say setting up Brawl servers will not be an issue.

I also don't expect the servers to do much except match making (does not use much bandwidth, mostly processing) and stage of the day. Stage of the day will require little bandwidth as well due to the fact all of the parts exist on your game, it just had to tell you part ID# is in this location for each part, on X background with Y soundtrack, and you've got it.

Matches will likely be played between two Wiis directly without server interaction. Not only does this make the connection faster, but it's far cheaper for Nintendo.

 

[FireWater]

Just in case I messed up on my syntax in the original post, or if I may have crossed over my pentameter and misled anyone, I am not saying that Brawl exists solely to bolster the Wii, or that profit exists to Nintendo as merely a tidy bonus; My point is a little more convoluted than all that.

What I'm stating, quite simply, is that SSBB may have more diverse monetary applications than simply the net profit of sales. Breaking it down this far, the whole thing kinda' seems trite after whittling it so far, so if you could simply use this post as a point of mending for the real thesis.

Believe me, I know that Brawl is gonna' be an absolute goldmine for the Big N. Don't be surprised if Sakurai finds a new moniker in Ma$ahiro.

In retrospect, the game's probably broken even already - considering the rate of pre-order. However, with the multitude of shares that'll need to be paid out, and the cost of keeping such a massive beast of employees on staff for two and half years, it's possible that they'll be in the red for some time.

Umm I dunno what you are talking about the "red" Nintendo is a billion dollar corporation, and unlike Sony and MS, Nintendo is the only game company to turn a profit. Not only are they averaging $50 PROFIT for every Wii sold, they are making a BOAT load off the software sales for the Wii and DS.

They are NOT in the Red, they are a corporation that cannot AFFORD to be in the red.

 

[VanillaMummy]

One good point people haven't brought up is that Brawl is basically a huge ad hidden within the game. By mixing such a variety of characters, chances are people will play the game and run into characters they've never seen before. This may prompt them to buy the games the character is from, thus leading to more sales (see Fire Emblem for an example).

 

[Lipucd]

@Toastmeister:
If it's about the servers....Then why worry about Brawl when its more like Mario Cart DS and other launch titles on the DS that need to worry?

It is not like these games charge for online play, yet they have been able to keep it going up to now. So I guess I am trying to say is that the Big N already knows how to handle this based off of other titles.

Also I think your thinking a bit too narrow minded. Most DS games that I know of run on the same servers that PBR does. So it is not like Sakuri is buying new servers JUST for this one game...They might add to it allowing pick and choosing for stages and screen shots yet I can't see it going so far as to make them go into the red.

Last, please note that if ANYTHING is going into the red in gaming, it might be the 360 in JP. Still to this day very few systems have sold, and really most of those can only be counted for a single RPG.

So:
Money is not an issue for servers, I am quite sure they already have a budget payed out a year in advance at least. =p

 

[The Mark]

Refreshing topic. Thanks for the read.