Iranian Election Fallout

[The Halloween Captain]

I find it surprising that there doesn't yet appear to be a thread on the Iranian elections. Here's the CNN main page on the topic:

http://www.cnn.com/SPECIALS/2009/iran.elections/

Quick Summary: Last Friday was the Iranian presidential elections, Ahmadinejad was reported as having beaten his opponent Moussavi almost 2 to 1, but no one is stupid enough to believe 40 or so million hand written ballots could have been counted within two hours of the polls closing. No one can say with certainty who won, but vote rigging is assumed. The country is in a state of chaos, due to the largest Iranian political movement since the Iranian revolution.

 

[Varuna]

hmm do you have more links than that on this?

 

[The Halloween Captain]

hmm do you have more links than that on this?

Yes and no.

Yes, I have more links, but they are pretty much all already linked to CNN's Iran Elcections special page that I already posted a link for.

I do find it funny whenever Ahmadinejad talks though: http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/meast/06/18/iran.ahmadinejad.comments/index.html

Also, I would like to emphasize that due to largescale censorship, most information is coming directly from Iranian civilians - foreign reporters were instructed not to leave thier hotels by the government: http://www.cnn.com/2009/TECH/06/18/iran.dodging.crackdown/index.html

 

[Varuna]

Don't know where you stand on this type of thing

but when I hear that there are a large amount of citizens in the street over this it gets me to hoping.

I tend to not trust news given from only one place, Im looking for other stories on the same thing

 

[Scott!]

I know for a while that Twitter was the best way of hearing what was going on from Iranians. A lot of what I heard, I saw on reddit, which has plenty of... unreliable links. But then again, there isnt much to be trusted. On CNN tonight, they said that most reporters have been kicked out of Iran, and that they only had one guy left. He was only allowed one report a day too. Things got kind of crazy there. The government shut down cell phone lines in and around Tehran, apparently, to keep word from spreading, and there have been a lot of suspicious accounts of voter fraud. I heard on CNN tonight some guy saying that some towns and villages were reporting numbers of votes for Ahmadinejad larger than their populations. Hopefully, the truth comes out, either with a recount overseen by someone not biased, or a re-vote if necessary. The Ayatollah is supposed to comment soon-ish, and that'll have a big effect on the future protests.

 

[The Halloween Captain]

Don't know where you stand on this type of thing

Think of me as an interested third party. I have an opinion about what should happen, but I am more interested in seeing what happens than anything.

I do believe the dominant political power is making mistakes. Big mistakes. The type of mistakes that may force them to make much larger concessions to protesters in the future.

http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/meast/06/19/iran.election.us/index.html

But there's a difference of 11 million votes. How can vote rigging happen? - Iran's supreme leader

Well, if you don't actually count the votes...

I also think Moussavi's solution, new elections with a system with more neutral oversight, is the fastest and most peaceful way of ending the protests. However, if that happens, then there won't be much change in Iran, will there?

EDIT: New commentary that seems to put things in perspective: http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/meast/06/17/dabashi.iran.regime/index.html

 

[Eor]

I doubt we'll ever know for sure if it was rigged.

But about the 11 million vote thing: in Western Democracy, voter fraud is incredibly hard. We have federalism, we have exit polls, we have multiple people counting a lot with oversights. In Iran, there's a single government agency that does it, with no exit polls or any sort of oversight. All that it would take for Tehran to alter the results would be to change the numbers on a spreadsheet.

I was also reading something about electoral fraud, and said that there were two outliers to the fraud. One would be to claim that someone won by one vote, which would result in massive recounts and oversight, and cause public outrage. The other would be to claim someone won by 100% of the vote, which would cause outrage as everyone who didn't vote for the winning candidate would know their vote was robbed. The person (fivethirtyeight.com, name Nate Silver) calculated that the best possible number to fraud an election would be around 65%. Ahmadinejad won with 63%. That definitely isn't proof either way or the other, but it's interesting.

And personally, I think there likely was fraud, but I doubt it originated with Ahmadinejad but with the Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was a backer of Ahmadinejad and really controls Iran.

 

[The Halloween Captain]

I doubt we'll ever know for sure if it was rigged.

But about the 11 million vote thing: in Western Democracy, voter fraud is incredibly hard. We have federalism, we have exit polls, we have multiple people counting a lot with oversights. In Iran, there's a single government agency that does it, with no exit polls or any sort of oversight. All that it would take for Tehran to alter the results would be to change the numbers on a spreadsheet.

I was also reading something about electoral fraud, and said that there were two outliers to the fraud. One would be to claim that someone won by one vote, which would result in massive recounts and oversight, and cause public outrage. The other would be to claim someone won by 100% of the vote, which would cause outrage as everyone who didn't vote for the winning candidate would know their vote was robbed. The person (fivethirtyeight.com, name Nate Silver) calculated that the best possible number to fraud an election would be around 65%. Ahmadinejad won with 63%. That definitely isn't proof either way or the other, but it's interesting.

And personally, I think there likely was fraud, but I doubt it originated with Ahmadinejad but with the Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was a backer of Ahmadinejad and really controls Iran.

I disagree.

You cannot have a landslide. Public perception due to record turnout was that the election would be close. High turnout usually implies a desire for change, which means the incumbent should be at a disadvantage. The two leading candidates should be within a couple percentages of eachother, so that public perception matches the results.

 

[Eor]

What the guy actually said was that if you're going to fraud the best place would be between 55% and 75%. Less then 55% would make any irregularities seem that much larger, and could lead to scrutiny and so on. More then 75% stretches credibility. You really think that if the election was incredibly close that there wouldn't of been claims of fraud? If he avoided the runoff vote at all there would be claims of fraud. Is there any reason you say high turnouts means more for the opposition?

if you're arguing that the election was rigged but done poorly, well then yeah, he should of done a runoff and then win that. But, maybe he didn't rig it. It could just be the Ayatollah doing everything, or just a surprise victory. The polls in Iran were largely based on Tehran, there weren't many in the rural areas where Ahmadinejad made huge improvements (according to election results)

 

[Teran]

Yes it was rigged.
It makes no difference.

Ahmedinejad is a puppet and means squat.
Mousavi is a not a reformist and does not care about democracy. He is just like Ahmedinejad, he just doesn't shout out his abhorrent opinions.

Yet again the President of Iran means squat.
All that matters is the Supreme Leader, Khamenei. The Cleric Council is all that matters.
The Iranian Government is obviously corrupt at the very core and use religion as their tool of control and excuse to stomp the masses.
Oh and as for their belief in Islam, lol. Their sons and daughters are in the West studying, getting an actual education, whilst sleeping with every boy on campus. Yes the sons sleep with the boys too, naughty muslims.

If anything needs to happen, it's a giant revolt against the entire Islamic Republic.
Well, I blame the idiots who voted them in in the first place. I'm glad they're being battered into oblivion daily, they deserve it for bringing these nutjob corrupt Clerics in.

Oh well, I'll ask my Uncle if he can send me the camcorder videos he got of the riots and demonstrations.

 

[The Halloween Captain]

What the guy actually said was that if you're going to fraud the best place would be between 55% and 75%. Less then 55% would make any irregularities seem that much larger, and could lead to scrutiny and so on. More then 75% stretches credibility. You really think that if the election was incredibly close that there wouldn't of been claims of fraud? If he avoided the runoff vote at all there would be claims of fraud. Is there any reason you say high turnouts means more for the opposition?

if you're arguing that the election was rigged but done poorly, well then yeah, he should of done a runoff and then win that. But, maybe he didn't rig it. It could just be the Ayatollah doing everything, or just a surprise victory. The polls in Iran were largely based on Tehran, there weren't many in the rural areas where Ahmadinejad made huge improvements (according to election results)

If there is anything that American politics has taught me, it's that there is never two democrats for every Republican, and visa-versa. Thus, no 66% vote rigging, too suspicious.

I agree 55% is a somewhat good minimum, but I also think it should be less than 60%. In fact, 55% is probably ideal.

Yes it was rigged.
It makes no difference.

Ahmedinejad is a puppet and means squat.
Mousavi is a not a reformist and does not care about democracy. He is just like Ahmedinejad, he just doesn't shout out his abhorrent opinions.

Yet again the President of Iran means squat.
All that matters is the Supreme Leader, Khamenei. The Cleric Council is all that matters.
The Iranian Government is obviously corrupt at the very core and use religion as their tool of control and excuse to stomp the masses.
Oh and as for their belief in Islam, lol. Their sons and daughters are in the West studying, getting an actual education, whilst sleeping with every boy on campus. Yes the sons sleep with the boys too, naughty muslims.

If anything needs to happen, it's a giant revolt against the entire Islamic Republic.
Well, I blame the idiots who voted them in in the first place. I'm glad they're being battered into oblivion daily, they deserve it for bringing these nutjob corrupt Clerics in.

Oh well, I'll ask my Uncle if he can send me the camcorder videos he got of the riots and demonstrations.

I'm actually not sure what this is all about, from the protesters' perspectives. Moussavi isn't radical enough for the reform that is being demanded; it might be a protest of the lack of transparency in the election process more than anything.

 

[Eor]

If there is anything that American politics has taught me, it's that there is never two democrats for every Republican, and visa-versa. Thus, no 66% vote rigging, too suspicious.

I agree 55% is a somewhat good minimum, but I also think it should be less than 60%. In fact, 55% is probably ideal.

Well Iran is a completely different system, with different cultures and ideas, and so yeah, while in America above 60% is rare (but done by five presidents), Iran is nothing like that. We can't base it off American ways of voting. We have more freedom of speech, we have less turnouts, we have more minority groups that form PACs to run stuff. Iran is not like that, and people of people have won with more then 60% of the vote elsewhere.

If it was a lower number, then the claim that he did commit fraud would have more claim, since it's a smaller number. But now it's 11 million, which is a lot, and while it would be easy to do so in Iran, that amount is enough to cause doubt until there's definite proof. The West isn't going to pressure him, we don't want to collapse the government, and Obama wants to have open talks with Tehran, and we can't do that while also saying he stole the election. The opposition is opposing, but there is no chance there's going to be a recount, and with the Ayatollah voicing his support of Mahmoud, there's little chance that Mahmoud won't serve his full term. Which is exactly what he wants to do

 

[Teran]

I'm actually not sure what this is all about, from the protesters' perspectives. Moussavi isn't radical enough for the reform that is being demanded; it might be a protest of the lack of transparency in the election process more than anything.

Most of the protestors are too ignorant and simple to realise that Moussavi is basically Ahmedinejad pretending to be the Iranian Obama.
I think some of the protestors are really just trying to find an excuse to show their disgust and outrage at the government, which has stolen their liberties since it was formed.

The West isn't going to pressure him, we don't want to collapse the government, and Obama wants to have open talks with Tehran, and we can't do that while also saying he stole the election.

The West does want to collapse the Government. In fact, it would be perfect. If the Islamic Republic were to collapse without any sort of invasion, it would be perfect.
The youth of Iran don't want the Government.
The majority of Iranians don't want the Government.
Greedy collaborators keep the authorities strong, and so through fear of death, torture etc. People can't don't do anything, at least now they have a chance to do something.

 

[Eor]

No, the west definitely does not want another destabilized country in the Middle East. The last thing we need is more chaos. If the government collapses it'd just create another front for Al' Quida and more breeding grounds for insurgents that would probably carry over into Iraq or elsewhere. Plus, while Iran is far away from making a nuclear bomb, anything like that is definitely not something the West wants in the hands of a terrorist/insurgent group.

 

[hundreds of utilts]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tjeeDpC069M

leave it to Mr. Stewart to bring out the hilarity in any situation...

 

[AltF4]

The protests are about more than just a rigged election. It's about dissatisfaction with the current regime. The people want a real democracy, not a sham one. Even if the election weren't directly rigged, Ayatollah Khamenei is still the dictator. There is no democracy as long as he is in power.

 

[The Halloween Captain]

Proof of irregularities:

http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/meast/06/21/iran.vote.survey/index.html