Ok, fought many Little Macs and Greninjas in preparation. Not as much Greninja, sadly, but it'll do.
Little Mac
30/70 at our disadvantage in FD/Omega
60/40 most other stages given platforms
As I think of these match-ups I try to think of two equally skilled players, and in that sense I just see Little Mac having plenty more options than Palutena. Easily. Let me go with the negatives first. This is all assuming Final
- Mac's smash attacks have stupidly greater speed and priority, and even if you block correctly he can ready the next hit before you successfully pull out a tilt or smash, which shortens Palutena's keep-away and killing options.
- Mac can easily go around any of Palutena's techniques to keep him away. I see people singing praises of AR, but to be honest, while it's useful in certain cases it fails more often than not. Also, in the case of Little Mac, he can easily dash upon seeing the move activated, go below any of the shots and punish really badly. I'd only use AR if Mac is returning and in the air, and even then I think there are better options.
Basically, I feel like using this move at the needed distance winds up just leaving you open if Mac knows how to bait it.
- Reflect is completely useless in this match. At best you can mess them up for a millisecond before they're pounding on you.
- Palutena's greatest strength is in the air, and if Mac stays in the ground it's pretty tough hitting him with something like a Fair without him punishing with, again, greater priority moves. However, I admit this one is more of a situation of me finding myself unable to short hop properly enough in the 3DS to make Fair hit a grounded Mac.
- Also in this mentality, good Macs know how to fall effectively which means the best use of his air time winds up being a mindgame situation where you alternate between aerial punish and baiting a dodge to then smash attack. But again, mis-time it by a second and Little Mac could be pummeling you again.
- I personally fear using any tilts in this match-up. The punish isn't worth it much when the jab can deal faster damage and set up better, and they're all extremely punishable due to the lag
What Palutena has
- Her jab is phenomenal against Mac. It comes out fast, and can stop a Mac that's in the middle of a dash attack or jolt haymaker. Very effective tool
- Warp is fantastic to distance yourself when necessary, but needs to be really carefully used, as landing lag can be punished by a quick-witted Mac (such a fast character)
- Counter is also a great tool given how well it can punish common Mac techniques. However, keep in mind that if you time this wrong, you're paying for it dearly. But hey! So does he when he mistimes a slip counter!
- Grabs work fantastically. Now, I admit that everyone says "Dthrow leads perfectly into Fair/Nair/Uair and into combos but in all honesty, it rarely works for me. People see it coming and jump away before I can get the damage in. Maybe I'm doing something wrong? In any case, I want to see competitive matches with Palutena to see how exactly people are doing this. In any case, all grabs work really well and set up Mac for follow up hits, it just requires care and thought.
- Palutena's dash attack cancels out Mac's own dash by virtue of the shield. That shield is fantastic actually, and the cool thing is also that it launches him into the air. The problem: it's a dash attack that stops Palutena short, so time it wrong and suddenly you're right in front of the fist.
Optimal movesets if customizable
Standard B: AR/EF
Heavenly light will never be useful for Mac given they'll want to stay grounded, and if you have them above you there's better things to do to keep them in the air.
Side B: Super Speed
A faster dash attack option? Yes please. Reflect is useless in this match-up, and angelic missile offers less options and is more telegraphed.
Down B: Counter
An extremely useful asset in this fight if used well. I hear a lot of people really liking light weight, but this is a match up where I don't think speed is much of an asset and becoming light weight is too much of a cost.
Celestial Fireworks could be interesting if timed well as it send Mac upwards, but I don't find it as good at punishing as Counter given Mac's raw power.
Up B: Warp
Like I said, being in the air just gives Mac the choice of where to run and Smash attack, and in that sense I personally prefer Warp to quickly get back to the stage ideally before he can think about what to do.
Rocket Jump could be a good option for OOS, but the weaker recovery is a shame especially since with Mac it's fun to follow him off-stage for the gimp.
Optimal stages
Not FD/Omega. Then we win xD
Greninja
50/50
I honestly find this to be a fairly neutral match, surprisingly, based on the battles I've had. In pretty much every viable stage too. My thoughts
- Shadow Sneak can be really annoying, but once you learn to pay attention to the shadow, it is very punishable, and 90% of the time I was able to punish with a grab and then follow up. Probably Greninja's most punishable move if poorly done. What makes it a bit problematic is that the timing can be weird sometimes but honestly, very easy to deal with just PAY ATTENTION TO THE SHADOW
- The shuriken is useless against Palutena. The only time it posed some danger was when used to edge guard, but even then proper reading of the situation means it's not a problem. At all.
- Greninja's counter is one of the weirder ones and around Lucario level of useful without the boost of aura. When fighting him it was rare for it to connect and it hurts when it does but it's nothing awful tbh. Also, f-tilt cancels out the counter if it connects.
- The air. What makes this match-up interestingly even is that both characters have powerful air game, and it's a matter of who can read the other player better. A lot of what Greninja likes to do can be easily read and punished by palutena. His Bounce (dair) is an awful thing against a good player who can dodge it and punish easily, and Palutena's Uair is frankly more fearful. Since Greninja goes so high with every jump that means Uair is always a possibility. In fact, all of Palutena's aerials can be really good against greninja.
That said, it also has great aerials. Fair and Bair are both strong with good reach and can kill easily. However, I found that they can be easy to predict and counter. More nasty is Greninja's juggling with Uair, but again, it's telegraphed and punishable with counter. or dodge and hey! now you're below Greninja >=D
In the end, when it comes to the air, I'd say Palutena has better options given things like Usmash, a better counter, greater mobility with things like Jump Glide and Warp, whereas Greninja has the fast rise and fast fall arc that's easy to get used to when facing and his recovery, while good, is useless for mobility. I saw attempts to use it to mess with my space since the water propels you in a different direction, but to no avail. I guess it helps I never tried to gimp Greninja below the stage but preferred to wait in the stage to punish the super high jump with my variety of options.
Now that I write it down it feels like it leans towards Palutena's favor, but I'm keeping in mind that Greninja's speed coupled with a lot of powerful moves, good grabs and throws that set up, and many attacks that kill and have great reach (eg. USmash, Fair, Uair) I feel like equally matched players will be at a constant back and forth.
And I briefly mentioned it, but watch out for USmash. It has fantastic reach and hits really hard. It's always best to avoid it and then punish with grab. Counter if you're risky.
Optimal movesets if customizable
Standard B: Heavenly Light
At many points in time, chances are Greninja will be above you, so this one makes a lot more sense than the other two options. AR is actually not bad against Greninja and can halt Shadow Sneak even. But it faces the same problem as Mac where its dash keeps it low so if it reacts properly to it, it can punish AR very effectively. As for Explosive flame, it's not a good keepaway seeing how Greninja can just leap over it or shadow sneak.
Meanwhile, I can think of plenty of times when Greninja jumps over me to avoid a gimp where heavenly light could have punished with extra damage. And if there's platforms even more.
Side B: Reflect
Super Speed is also a phenomenal option since it can work as a fantastic approach, but honestly, reflect means that Greninja's entire shuriken game is completely useless and it forces him to approach via air or shadow sneak, both punishable. I haven't seen reflect work so well since Lucario and Samus fights.
Down B: Counter/Lightweight
Both really viable options. Celestial fireworks isn't great against Greninja, while counter can keep you from becoming easy fodder for highly predictable juggles and air game (and smash attacks), while lightweight can make the battle a more aggressive one for Palutena and can also work really well.
Up B: Jumpglide
I love Warp, personally, but I think Jumpglide can work fantastically for movement in this match up, and playing with it in the air can bait a lot of common Greninja behavior. More movement in the air = good stuff.
Optimal stages
Platforms work really nicely for Palutena since she can hit Greninja better from the ground than the other way around, while also being capable in the air.
Arena Ferox in particular is a fantastic stage to fight greninja given that walls can limit its movement while still allowing smash attacks like Usmash from Palutena to go through, as well as Uair and Nair.