Let's do this again... READ THROUGH THIS, AS I AM TRYING TO USE REASON!
Smash 64: Original 12 commence battling, and a holy constant of Nintendo culture is born. We have a new IP, and what an IP it is!
Melee: We now get 14 new combatants but...
Hark?! Quod?!?!?! 8 are new, if one counts Sheik and Zelda as separate (as well we should!), but 6 - The Dr., The King of Evil, one of the FE duo, Pichu (who doesn't deserve a new title), the pre-pubescent Hero of Time and The Surliest Wingman EVAR- are but polygon shells donned by the wireframes of finished fighters, mimicking their styles to a near tee! Deception. Subterfuge. *Cloning*. Yahweh frowned upon this tampering with nature, as did we. We still bought the game by the tons, and loved the heck out of it. As did Yahweh.
Brawl: As the world now awaits the Third Coming (this period of waiting nearly as pleasant as eating ones own lips) we ponder on the final tally. Last time we saw 14 new faces, and 8 truly new choices. Out of the additions to the roster, 57 % consisted of all-new fighters, 43 % were *clones*.
Now, seeing as every increase may be larger than the last (from 12 new faces to 14 new faces) we can expect something in the region of 16-20 new faces (depending on Sakurai's priorities, which it would be folly to try and debate). However, it would be easier to begin with estimating that no more than 60 % of these be non-clones, am I right? If so, assuming 60 % we can "expect" 10 -12 characters to be brand new.
Thus far we have 8: Zamus, Snake, MK, Ike, Pit, Wario, Diddy and Trainer, all of which beyond doubt have unique movesets. Now, while it would make sense to show off the non-clones for the sake of pre-release buzz, it could be a good move to show off clones first and show the good stuff later. Once again, the updates so far have not been very predictable, I would say. Anyway, it would be strange if Sakurai showed off 8 of the fresh faces so soon, no? This unsettles my thesis somewhat.
With my increase in mind we would have 42-46 characters, 12 to 14 clones, thus making for 30-32 brand new faces. But, as I've said, patterns are difficult to pin down.
Also, the (in)famous Gamefaqs oracle said we would have 34 faces MINUS clones, and 15 new ones MINUS clones (or, in his phrasing, transformations). In order to fit this in, six from Melee have to have been removed.
On the other hand, the only thing in his favor is the prediction about the vet and the newcomer, and since there was a precedent of two characters in one week following a week with no new characters we must be veeeeery cautious...
Anyway, pleeease give me input, and it would be nice if anybody could inform me whether there is a thread that deals mathematically with the roster problem, since otherwise I'll make a new thread on the subject, starting with this post.