I have quite a bit of experience in this MU from playing Soulimar in bracket (Norcal Olimar that's been on PR the past 3 seasons). Unfortunately I've only beaten him on stream once and it was a few months ago, but hopefully it shows some of what I'm about to talk about
https://youtu.be/XEegpQookaE?t=4343. I currently feel like the MU is very close to even, just barely edging out to Olimar's favor.
My thoughts:
- Olimar's approaching game is godawful. Approaching Olimar sucks (but is possible, it just feels like you need to make two good reads to get in compared to his one read to punish you). Therefore, whenever you have any amount of lead on Olimar I strongly recommend you force him to approach. I know that sounds weird given that he can throw Pikmin, but platforms combined with GW's naturally good air mobility can make you a very frustrating target to hit. Olimar may resort to cultivating his lineup instead of immediately trying to close the gap; I recommend during your lead to jump around him like a vulture and the moment he commits to anything unsafe go in for a quick punish and keep whatever momentum you get off it to widen the gap as much as possible. Be aware of when neutral is reset so you can back off again.
- Olimar can't land against GW. All of his air moves aside of nair have item priority, meaning they will ALWAYS lose any air-to-air trade. Nair is your best friend during juggles, having a big enough hitbox to contest all of Olimar's moves + the multihit beating whistle armor soundly.
- Be patient when edgeguarding an Olimar with Pikmin, you can usually edgeguard him on reaction with something good. If he's going for a low recovery, stage spike. If he tries to recover at mid height, you can go out with a hit box or even keyspike him. If he goes high, stay below him and windbox him with uair as soon as his up-B starts and he's over the stage. It will send him so high that even if he cancels with an air move immediately he'll still be forced into free fall before he touches the ground, giving you a free hit.
- In terms of stages, the only one I'd strongly recommend banning is Lylat. it's the hardest stage to edgeguard Olimar on since he can fly right under the stage, the platforms are at a bad height for your camping and the curve of the ship matches the curve of Pikmin toss allowing Olimar to zone from greater distance.
- Only experience will help you learn Olimar's recovery distance since it scales with the pikmin he's holding, and the different colored pikmin effect his weight differently. When in doubt, err on the side of hitting him again unless he has two or more purples (in which case, more often than not he won't make it back).
- The other stages function off a logical dichotomy: the more platforms, the better your camp game is going to be. The less platforms, the harder it will be to run but in exchange you'll be able to punish Olimar's landings even harder with no platforms to catch him.
- Don't get pivot grabbed. It's one of Olimar's best tools and one you need to be always conscious of in the neutral.
- If you're standing near the edge and Olimar is hanging on the ledge and he has a purple next, he can drop down and hit you with the uair faster than most people can react, and can often kill you. Be aware.
- When Olimar fsmashes, as soon as the Pikmin begins dropping Olimar has recovered from the move, and can frame trap with another fsmash/dtilt.
- Watch Olimar's lineup, and learn the colors and what they mean. Yellows have huge disjoint and can allows Olimar's air attacks to contest usmash sometimes. Blues will begin killing with grabs starting at 120% (but be aware they can also start killing with uair around the same time so careful not to be predictable with jumping to not be grabbed). Purples will end your stock if Olimar reads you at 60%+ and hits you with a smash, and will kill damn early with uair and bair. Whites do a ton of damage and must be killed immediately if they latch.
- Not only that, be aware of which Pikmin are actually standing by Olimar. Three pikmin could be alive, but if he just fsmashed twice that means he can't use two of his Pikmin until they come back to him. Think of it like an ammo resource, and the less he's got with him the more limited his traps get. If you ever spot him with no Pikmin standing by his side, it's a great moment to just go in with something because he won't be able to smash or grab, meaning it's only matter of reading a tilt/jab or a retreat.
- Olimars are good at capitalizing on attempts to kill latched Pikmin, punishing the endlag of whatever move you choose. If you want to kill latches safely, up-B first and then nair is a great option. Often the up-B itself will knock off Pikmin (in my experience it always knocks off Whites).
If you have any other questions ask away. It's a complicated matchup but one that's totally doable for us.
