So reading This I think something is getting lost in translation with our theories and all, so I'm gonna try and take on your points one at a time.
First off I would like to point off that there is no new difference between stage and character select order. Ultimate has the stage select screen appear before the character select screen. This is a change in the game but not how we play in tournaments. With the exception of game 1 every other game in a set the stage is chosen before the character.
while you are correct on that tournament already pick stage first on counter pick, we are not arguing about changing the stage selection method because of the fact that the game now picks the stage first, were arguing a change because we want to figure out a method to incorporate a larger stage list into competitive games. with that in mind, the traditional pick and ban method are simply not up to the task (as you have pointed out).
a solution may be found with the veto method that many people have already sugeted, it is not only faster than our traditional method but it can also be used without any trouble with a large stage list, which is why we are considering it as a replacment for the old system.
(The veto method as fallow to be clear is: player winning player bans # stage > loser suggest a stage from the remainder >winner decides whether to use # of veto to force the loser to pick a different stage > continue to untile winner runs out of vetos or decides to play on a suggested stage)
There are several concerns over using a large stage list. One of which of course is more stages likely makes things like stage striking, banning, picking a stage etc. take more time. Since we are very much used to using only 6 stages this process is typically very quick in a match. With so few stages it's easy to know exactly where you want to play and where you don't. Using a large stage list likely wouldn't work with this method and a replacement method like random stage select would need to be implemented.
no one is suggesting that random select be used to pick the stage in all parts of a competitive match, at the most it has been suggested to be used for game one because each player is on even footing and even then many have suggested that we simply use RPS to determine the veto order just as we use it to determine Pick/ban order today.
there is no random element attached or required to accommodate a larger stage list.
as for selecting stage at random, on game 1 it works because both players pull for the same pool of stages and both players know what the stage is before their character is selected. this is why the ultimate selection change is significant, it doesn't matter for the counter pick phase of a match as you've pointed out we already do that. But it is rather important when it comes to how we approach choosing a stage for game 1, because now it doesn't matter if the stage is perfectly neutral or not on game 1 or not both players will have ample warning on what they will be tackling on game one and they can create strategies around that, whether it be a change in character or even a change in playstyle.
In essence, there is no longer even a need for a "neutral" stage in smash anymore as selecting a stage on game one is no longer the deciding factor of the matchup, the character is.
You can't fully have the best of both world's. We could keep a similar system to what we use in Melee, Brawl, Project M and Sm4sh, possibly use a larger list of stages but with the current method of stage selection the most stages I realistically see us using would be 10-12. I think most people are open to expanding the stage list to more than just 6 stages. The problem is there is a very vocal group of people who are advocating a large stage list of 20+ stages. So this creates a divide of small stage list or large stage list. There are very few who are in between. Whenever you have polarizing opinions there's no way to appease everyone. So you have one group of people wanting to use the same or at least similar rule set to what we are using in Melee, Brawl, PM and Sm4sh which limits how many stages we can use. Then you have a group that wants to change things up and use a different rule set for stages. There are of course benefits of a large stage list too. More variety which for some players is more enjoyable. It can also be more enjoyable for spectators. Sm4sh has a considerable number of games played on Smashville and people simply get tired of seeing the same thing. The more stages obviously the less likely we are to see certain stages overused.
as
ParanoidDrone
has pointed out we really need to stop focusing on what we have been using and focus on what we can use for ultimate, our system should be adaptable to the contents of the game, the game should not be forced to adapt to our old rule set simply because its what we've been using for the older games. If a suitable method can be found for Ultimate I don't see why we shouldn't embrace it.
I personally believe balance is a far greater issue. Although, many of these stages are likely to be as good as if not better than stages we've been playing on, more stages is simply more variance. Using a massive stage list certain super advantageous aspects of one stage could be found in several stages.
I don't know how you managed to undersell and oversell the variance between the stages, but ya managed it. looking at any list of potential legal stages I don't know how you can view the differences in them as being minor or even not significant enough to the point where we could disregard them due to sheer redundancy alone, while at the same time disregard them because their variance makes them to hard to balance? (seriously help me out on this one)
So if you allowed the player to choose stage the advantage of the counter-picks could be very strong. But if you just select a stage completely randomly you lose all advantage that a counter-pick would offer. All the proposed ideas that incorporate a large list stage inherently remove some aspect of competitive fairness. It's simply harder to maintain balance when you add more variance.
once again no one is suggesting random be used to select counter picks, thinking about it that kind defeats the who purpose of the loser picking it to gain an advantage...? random selection os being suggested for game 1 ONLY and other methods using RPS have also been suggested if the random button in the game isn't fair.
and ill point to the veto method that has been suggested above and throughout this thread, it offers players control over their picks, the loser an advantage by doing the selection, the winner counterplay through their vetos all while allowing the implementation of a large stage list. we get competitive fairness, player control and stage variety and all we got to do is step away from the older methods that have served us well, but won't work for Ultimate.
Dame I took way to long to type this up, I'm sorry if this came out condescending (reading it over)
EDIT:
I really want someone to explain to me why the veto method can't work, its literally player 2 bans bad stages, player 1 picks a stage that's not banned, player 2 says yes or no to said stage, repeat steps to 2-3 until the player 2 says yes or runs out of no's...
also
what brought about this episode of pessimism and depression...?
I'm pretty sure the competitive scene isn't that dead on the inside, also Miis and custom moves had legitimate problems and I don't see how their apparent banning is in any case relevant to the stages players will be playing on.
the smash pros I follow Zero and Niro seem to be excited at the prospect of a larger stage list and M2K also appears to be excited about the possibility, so I really want to know where you're getting this impression at the moment.