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Creative Play Part II: Offensive Prediction: How to be a mind-reader!

kirbyraeg

Smash Hero
Joined
Nov 18, 2008
Messages
6,440
Location
in Makai
I did one of these a few months ago (mostly for my own enjoyment, I admit) but I think this is a critical way that people can improve their competitive battling for those who aren't sure about their prediction. This will talk briefly about the necessity of offensive prediction in play both in tournament and in standard ladder play :D

What is Prediction?

Prediction is when you use a different attack or switch differently than expected that anticipates an opponent's action. It generally will cripple a switch-in if used properly or give you a strong advantage when used properly, so let's consider a scenario.
-You have a Starmie out against an opponent's Vaporeon. Its Thunderbolt will 2hko it, and it can't do much in return. Let's say you don't know what else is on their team yet, but consider the characteristics of what they might switch in to beat you.
1: They might have a bulkier ground type to cover the obvious electric weakness, or they might have a general special wall (hi Blissey).
2: They might use a faster trapper to beat you. Think ScarfTar, Scarf Flygon, Scarf Rotom-A, etc. They will at the very least resist Electric and will generally have weaknesses to types that Vaporeon resists.
Basically there are offensive switches against it and defensive switches against it, and your ability to recognize what type of team your opponent has will influence your prediction.
Since you understand what the characteristics of their defensive switch are, you can decide on a course of action that would accomodate their potential switch, which might result in you Ice Beaming their Flygon that tries to switch in in order to scare you off with the threat of a super-effective U-turn, or double switching to Infernape as they switch to Blissey. This article gives a bit more information on the thought process behind this:
http://www.sirlin.net/articles/yomi-layer-3-knowing-the-mind-of-the-opponent.html

Because of the large differences in strategy between offensive and defensive teams, prediction vs. both is quite different. Predicting vs. stall teams is very difficult and is basically impossible without a stallbreaker mon as stall is built to specifically eliminate prediction through the use of general walls that cover all possible options. This will primarily deal with offensive prediction against offensive teams, as vs. stall the most important thing is to have a stallbreaker (like Gliscor) or something that can muscle through it (Infernape is a classic, but there are lots of things with nice mixed attacking stats that can make dealing with stall easier).

1: Offensive Prediction

Offensive prediction is something that seems counterintuitive when you think about it, but it begins to make more sense once you look at it differently. Predicting a specific Pokemon with no other information is nigh impossible, but you can accurately predict characteristics of certain pokemon on their team based on what you've seen already. Seeing a Scizor is a likely clue-in to Heatran, Kingdra, Suicune, or other bulky Fire resists. Seeing a Gyarados is a clue-in to Volt-Absorbers and Ground-types who take both Rock and Electric attacks with ease. Seeing a Gengar or frail Psychic might suggest a Lucario to set up on Pursuiters. Once you start to think of logical partners for specific Pokemon you can think more in the terms of common characteristics of Pokemon that are paired with them:
1: They will resist the common weaknesses of the pokemon on the field. Yes this is common sense but this is also easy to not think about if you aren't paying specific attention to it.
2: They will be able to outspeed/severely harm most of the pokemon's counters. This is also easy to think about and consciously use to your advantage.
3: They will both serve similar utility. Bulky pokemon are likely to pair together and rely on a wide swath of resistances to keep them alive; frailer mons will rely on switching in on immunities and setting up to threaten the opponent.
For example, pairing Scarf Jirachi with bulky Gyarados will give Jirachi a lot of switch-in opportunities and the ability to scout with U-turn/fire off attacks, and also gives Gyarados setup opportunities on some of Jirachi's bad matchups like Heatran. KNOWING THIS, however, let's talk about an example situation:

Let's say you just exploded with lead Azelf and created a blind dual switch situation. Let's say they bring in Gyarados and you bring in Starmie. At that point you would expect the Gyarados to switch out, but since you would have no other specific information you wouldn't know what they would switch to. Therefore using Hydro Pump as a general predictor would catch a lot of things that would expect to come in on a Thunderbolt and really hurt them a lot. In this case even though Jirachi is pretty naturally bulky and is neutral to Water he would take 60% minimum from LO Hydro Pump! The fact that you can predict this regardless of knowing what their team actually is shows you the importance of risk-analysis and how people will always act to minimize risk, allowing you to basically completely read their actions. Understanding their expectations (and subsequently their understandings of your expectations) can cause wars between different yomi layers. A lot of prediction happens in this way, and in general blind prediction seems a lot riskier than it actually is. The only reason blind prediction isn't quite as risky as it seems is that players will always act to minimize their risk and therefore will always act in the most defensive way possible. By putting just a little bit of thought into this, you can run around their defensive plans with your own offense and weaken them to the point of a generic sweep.

Differences in prediction between ladder and tournament play:

In ladder matches people will almost never operate beyond the most basic levels of prediction: they are focused on acting in what would initially appear to be the most logical way, so they would respond in expected ways; in tournament people are focusing a lot more and so adapt to your predictions gradually depending on the player. Knowing this though, you can begin to understand the risks that come with predicting things differently and whether the opponent is going to try to psych you out or not. Understanding that yomi layers don't really apply in ladder matches is important to practicing your basic predictions against ladder players, as understanding how basic prediction works is how you'll be able to predict against better players in tournament and improve your overall game.

hope you enjoyed reading my thoughts on this. :)

edit: here is a good example of this (the warstory Art posted).
Playing better than your best: an Uber Warstory
Prologue:
So I'm on Shoddy and I've been playing around on ubers for a while. In fact, I've made a total of ten revisions to the team that I'm currently using. The team, as far as I could tell, had been edited to the point of perfection, fitting my personal style. While it may have ridden me to the top of the ladder(twelth as I'm typing this up), a single challenger was in my way: ggGerbil.
Over the last week, I have played ggGerbil a numerous amount of times: we know each other's teams pretty well, and he continuously ended up on top(excluding one match with a single Freeze in my favor). Once again, ggGerbil ended up on top in our last match. In the dumps, I press the "Find Match" button, hoping to find someone else who did ubers. As if by the command of fate, I came across no one other than:



ggGerbil sent out Wobbuffet.
Articanus sent out Latios.

The moment his name hit the screen I cursed at four things:
1) Me, for not making a good enough team.
2) ggGerbil, for making too good of a team.
3) Everyone on shoddy, for playing OU.
4) Colin, for not making a program that stops you from battling the same person twenty times in a row!

Having played each other immediantly beforehand, he know's I'm running an all Special Attack Latios. And I knew that Memento(my only non-attacking move) would be completely useless against the Limbo-blob. So the sequence of events this turn was a simple no-brainer.

Latios used Draco Meteor.
Wobbuffet lost 81% of its health.
Latios's special attack was harshly lowered.
Wobbuffet used Mirror Coat.
Latios lost 100% of its health.
Articanus's Latios fainted.
Wobbuffet's leftovers restored its health a little!
Wobbuffet restored 6% of its health.
6-5
Wobbuffet: 25%
Advantage: ggGerbil

This is already turning out as bleak as many of our previous matches! However, this allows for a free switch-in and attack from any of my five powerful uber beasts!

Articanus switched in Kyogre.
Kyogre's Drizzle caused a storm!
Rain began to fall!

Choice Specs Kyogre is in, and ready to cause some damage! In all of our previous matches, I've always Water Spouted to keep the pressure up at all times. So it was quite easy to predict the usual switch-in.

ggGerbil switched in Giratina.
Giratina is exerting its pressure!
Kyogre used Ice Beam.
It's super effective!
Giratina lost 56% of its health.
The rain continues to fall.
Giratina's leftovers restored its health a little!
Giratina restored 6% of its health.
Giratina: 50%

That's a beast of a wall, barely being 2HKOed by a super effective hit coming from a Choiced 150 base stat! Nonetheless, I need to keep the pressure up, otherwise the momentum will quickly shift in his favor. I know that his Stealth Rocker would love to come in on this Ice Beam, and Stealth Rock would completely cripple one of my key members. And I know he's unwilling to sacrifice Giratina, whom's existance would also lead to that same key member's demise.

ggGerbil switched in Heatran.
Articanus switched in Rayquaza.
The rain continues to fall.

Got that *****! Choice Band Rayquaza's ready to release all hell onto ggGerbil for the multiple humiliations given to it beforehand!
However, after pondering on what I learned about my opponent from the previous match, I quickly realize that anything Rayquaza can do can quickly be countered. He has a Ground immunity that will easily come in on my Earthquake, and even if I try to Outrage for the 2HKO, Heatran's just going to come back in and set up Stealth Rock(which, as I've outlined before, is very bad for this team). Extremespeed and Dragon Claw are out of the question, as they both are only to be used to finish off weakened enemies, often for late-game. So.....

ggGerbil switched in Cresselia.
Articanus switched in Kyogre.
Kyogre's Drizzle caused a storm!
The rain continues to fall.

Now I'm in the perfect position. With Water Spout able to OHKO anything on his team except Giratina, who is in range for a 2HKO and outsped, so something's going down.

ggGerbil switched in Wobbuffet.
Kyogre used Water Spout.
Wobbuffet lost 25% of its health.
ggGerbil's Wobbuffet fainted.
The rain continues to fall.
5-5
Advantage: ggGerbil

Smart choice on his behalf. With no Wish-Passer and not enough HP to take any hit from my team, he was far from useless: he was a burden.
However, by using this "burden" as a sacrifice, he get's to do two things:
1) Scout out my move.
2) Give anything on his team a free switch-in.

ggGerbil switched in Groudon.
Groudon's Drought intensified the sun's rays!
The rain stopped.
The sun began to shine!

Even with Water Spot's previous power cut to a third, it should be enough to OHKO the towering dinosaur. Of course, he is faster, and he'll more likely than not Attack head-on to weaken my power away from that of a OHKO. However, it's better than him getting a free Swords Dance and sweeping my team.

Groudon used Earthquake.
Kyogre lost 53% of its health.
Kyogre used Water Spout.
It's super effective!
Groudon lost 56% of its health.
The sun continues to shine.
Groudon's leftovers restored its health a little!
Groudon restored 6% of its health.
Kyogre: 47%
Groudon: 53%

Good, he can't sweep with half his HP. However, Kyogre's in a bad spot too. He can't Spout with his usual Wateriness, especially in the sun. ggGerbil likes it that way, too. Which is why he wants my Kyogre dead. His desire to kill Kyogre, though, leaves him blind to an easy switch-in on my side.

Articanus switched in Rayquaza.
Groudon used Earthquake.
It doesn't affect Rayquaza...
The sun continues to shine.
Groudon's leftovers restored its health a little!
Groudon restored 6% of its health.
Groudon: 59%

Trying to keep up with my streak of unpredictability, Outrage that would finish off Groudon is out of the question. Even if Groudon was left in for his demise, Heatran would co..... Heatran!

ggGerbil switched in Heatran.
Rayquaza used Earthquake.
It's super effective!
Heatran lost 100% of its health.
ggGerbil's Heatran fainted.
The sun continues to shine.
5-4
Advantage: Articanus

With Heatran gone, I begin to ease up a tad bit. I'm currently controlling the flow of battle, and I intend to keep it that way.

ggGerbil switched in Cresselia.

Oh yeah, his switch-in. ****.
This leaves me in a huge predicament... he gets a free Thunder Wave on anything coming in next turn. Kyogre is too important to take it, and leaving Rayquaza in is just stupid. So the only one that can take it and not be too bothered by it is:

Articanus switched in Dialga.
Dialga is exerting its pressure!
Cresselia used Thunder Wave.
Dialga is paralysed! It may be unable to move!
The sun continues to shine.
Dialga: PRZ

This is a Bulk Up Dialga anyway, so it can Rest off the paralysis later. Not that it would ever get the chance with Groudon around. Speaking of Groudon, I know he's coming in next turn, and I only have one member on my team that can scare him off.

ggGerbil: some intense prediction in this one
ggGerbil switched in Groudon.
Groudon's Drought intensified the sun's rays!
Articanus switched in Smeargle (lvl 1 Smeargle).
The sun continues to shine.
Groudon's leftovers restored its health a little!
Groudon restored 6% of its health.
Groudon: 64%

Believe me, it's about to get a lot more intense. His Giratina is the number one counter to my Level 1 Smeargle tactic, being able to RestTalk my Spores and being immune to my Endeavors. So it's quite simple to assume it will be coming in next turn.

ggGerbil switched in Giratina.
Giratina is exerting its pressure!
Articanus switched in Kyogre.
Kyogre's Drizzle caused a storm!
The sun faded.
Rain began to fall!
The rain continues to fall.
Giratina's leftovers restored its health a little!
Giratina restored 6% of its health.
Articanus: I'm putting my complete effort into this battle so I don't feel like the hours[Exaggeration] I've spent making this team are a waste
Giratina: 56%

Looking at his options, the standard move to make would be to bring in Cresselia on an Ice Beam, T-Wave something, and wear me down slowly after setting up a Light Screen. Reading what he just said though, you can see he knows that I'm not doing the most obvious moves by trying to be unpredictable. Therefore, to stay unpredictable:

Kyogre used Ice Beam.
It's super effective!
Giratina lost 56% of its health.
ggGerbil's Giratina fainted.
The rain continues to fall.
5-3
Advantage: Articanus

I must BE predictable. For those who are confused, he probably expected me to Surf just to hit his Cresselia. He was beginning to realize that his usual Switching-shenanigans were having no effect this match. So he stayed in, hoping to throw me off-guard. Had I Surfed, he would have Rested to full health, making it almost impossible to kill. I would have then been forced into the position to switch, which is only asking for him to spread status and cause damage to my entire team.

ggGerbil: good
ggGerbil switched in Dugtrio.

****, didn't see him use this in out last match! T.T
Goodbye, Kyogre, you did a great job.

Dugtrio used Earthquake.
Kyogre lost 47% of its health.
Articanus's Kyogre fainted.
The rain continues to fall.
4-3
Advantage: Articanus

This could be a blessing: with no Ghosts on the opposing team, a free switch-in, and no Sand Stream, Stealth Rock, or any other kind of residual damage in play:

Articanus switched in Smeargle (lvl 1 Smeargle).

Smeargle is ready to tear this ***** up!

Dugtrio used Earthquake.
Smeargle lost 100% of its health.
Smeargle hung on using its Focus Sash!
Smeargle used Trick Room.
Smeargle twisted the dimensions!
The rain continues to fall.
Smeargle: 8%(1 HP)

Letsee.... I'll go for one at a time. Spore Smeargle!

ggGerbil switched in Cresselia.
Smeargle used Spore.
Cresselia fell asleep!
The rain continues to fall.
Cresselia: SLP

Now I'm just going to Endeavor whatever comes out(or stays in).

ggGerbil switched in Groudon.
Groudon's Drought intensified the sun's rays!
The rain stopped.
The sun began to shine!
Smeargle used Endeavor.
Groudon lost 63% of its health.
The sun continues to shine.
Groudon's leftovers restored its health a little!
Groudon restored 6% of its health.
Groudon: 7%

This could get tricky... I've had opponents try to stall me out by switching the turn I Dragon Rage. I'll Endeavor whatever he thinks can take it!

Smeargle used Endeavor.
Groudon lost 6% of its health.
Groudon used Earthquake.
Smeargle lost 8% of its health.
Articanus's Smeargle fainted.
The sun continues to shine.
Groudon's leftovers restored its health a little!
Groudon restored 6% of its health.
3-3
Groudon: 7%
Advantage: Articanus

He apparantly thought that Groudon could take the second Endeavor: and he was right. I outpredicted myself and it ended up with Smeargle dead.
Even with his death, I'm not in a tight spot: in fact, it's pretty much GG at this point.

Articanus switched in Rayquaza.

All that's left is for Rayquaza to finish it all up.

Rayquaza used Extremespeed.
Groudon lost 6% of its health.
ggGerbil's Groudon fainted.
The twisted dimensions returned to normal!
The sun continues to shine.
3-2
Advantage: Articanus

Here comes Cresselia, who walls the hell outa me.

ggGerbil switched in Cresselia.

Now to reveal my final member and endgame sweeper:

Articanus switched in Tyranitar.
Tyranitar's Sand Stream whipped up a sandstorm!
The sun faded.
A sandstorm brewed!
Cresselia is fast asleep!
The sandstorm rages.
Cresselia is buffetted by the sandstorm!
Cresselia lost 6% of its health.
Cresselia's leftovers restored its health a little!
Cresselia restored 6% of its health.
Cresselia: 100%

SUPERMAN THAT HOE!!!!.... err, I mean Crunch!

Cresselia is fast asleep!
Tyranitar used Crunch.
It's super effective!
Cresselia lost 64% of its health.
Tyranitar lost 10% of its health.
The sandstorm rages.
Cresselia is buffetted by the sandstorm!
Cresselia lost 6% of its health.
Cresselia's leftovers restored its health a little!
Cresselia restored 6% of its health.
Cresselia: 36%

Alright, so even with Moonlight, Cresselia can't recover enough HP to save its hide. Not wanting to take the chance of an(unusual) defensive Dugtrio coming in and stopping me, I'll go with(one) of my surprise moves:

Cresselia is fast asleep!
Tyranitar used Ice Beam.
Cresselia lost 21% of its health.
Tyranitar lost 10% of its health.
The sandstorm rages.
Cresselia is buffetted by the sandstorm!
Cresselia lost 6% of its health.
Cresselia's leftovers restored its health a little!
Cresselia restored 6% of its health.
Cresselia: 15%

OK, that was a waste of time. But now he's in range for the Ice Beam KO.

Cresselia is fast asleep!
Tyranitar used Ice Beam.
Cresselia lost 15% of its health.
ggGerbil's Cresselia fainted.
Tyranitar lost 10% of its health.
The sandstorm rages.
3-1
Tyranitar: 70%(Stupid Life Orb)
Advantage: Articanus

Now comes his last member:

ggGerbil switched in Dugtrio.

Hmmmm.... in retrospect, I should have Rock Polished. Then I could have Ice Beamed this little turd for the OHKO.
For those wondering what my fourth move is, it's Flamethrower.

Dugtrio used Earthquake.
It's super effective!
Tyranitar lost 70% of its health.
Articanus's Tyranitar fainted.
The sandstorm rages.
2-1
Advantage: Articanus

This is GG unless he had the hindsight to pack a Focus Sash with Stone Edge and pray for a critical hit.

Kuseru has entered the room.
Articanus switched in Rayquaza.

Sorry Kuseru, you missed all the good parts. I hope I'm wrong about the Focus Sash and critical hit....

ggGerbil: gg
Rayquaza used Extremespeed.
Dugtrio lost 100% of its health.
Dugtrio did NOT survive with Focus Sash!
Dugtrio did NOT use Stone Edge.
Dugtrio did NOT get a critical hit!
Rayquaza lost ****.
Articanus's Rayquaza did NOT faint.
ggGerbil's Dugtrio fainted.
2-0
Articanus wins!
Articanus: gg
Kuseru has left the room.
ggGerbil has left the room.
 

Wave⁂

Smash Legend
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Messages
11,870
Cool warstory, bro. Almost completely one-sided in your favor. I liked the cliffhanger one more, though.
 

kirbyraeg

Smash Hero
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in Makai
Perfect example. I will edit the text into the OP for people too lazy to click and read it.
 

The Real Gamer

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3DS FC
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I can't even count the number of Ghosts/Psychics I've caught off guard by using Payback with my Machamp against opposing Tyranitars. It works almost every time.

But this was a really good read Kirby. Good work.
 
D

Deleted member

Guest
I have a friend named Tim who's amazing at Pokemon. One day I'm watching him play online. He has an Exeguttor out vs a Heatran. Heatran switches out and a Heracross comes in, Exeguttor uses Psychic and Heracross is KO'd. In the text chat I saw:

other guy: why didn't you switch out? and why did you choose psychic vs my heatran?
Tim: because I wanted it to suffer.

And that's what prediction means.
 

Pink Reaper

Real Name No Gimmicks
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In the Air, Using Up b as an offensive move
Prediction is far less necessary in OU when compared to Ubers. Ubers is mostly a series of Checks rather than an outright set of counters and your move choice can either leave you walled or defeating the same pokemon. In OU, where stats dont regularly hit the 150s prediction takes a back seat to outright counters and no win situations. In OU there's plenty of times where prediction is completely meaningless simply because of the general frailty of OU pokemon. Abusing broad scale attacks with few resists(Ice and Electric being the old standby) and high attack power on pokemon with the power to back them can often leave you in a situation where you win simply by being able to do more damage than your opponent can actively withstand, even if your moves are as predictable as the sun setting.

To expand on that as well as i can, because OU lacks pokemon who's base stats are all 100+ like in Ubers, rarely can pokemon other than those that are specifically placed on a team to absorb hits take an unresisted hit from something with a 120+ attacking stat more than once. To give an example, if you build a team with the mindset of "Win through Offense" rather than "Win Through Defense" and dont use either Rotom or Flygon, you've nothing on your team that can actively switch into something like an offensive Zapdos, especially if the ever common Stealth Rocks is up. This is why prediction takes a backseat in OU and why late game sweepers exist. Rather than attempting to win via prediction you can simply force a win condition by dealing enough damage with your other pokemon, eliminating the ground type/only good resist and then simply going straight to the pokemon that can oneshot anything thats at around 50-60% on your opponents team.
 

Hobobloke

Atemon Game
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confiirmed, sending supplies
Prediction is far less necessary in OU when compared to Ubers. Ubers is mostly a series of Checks rather than an outright set of counters and your move choice can either leave you walled or defeating the same pokemon. In OU, where stats dont regularly hit the 150s prediction takes a back seat to outright counters and no win situations. In OU there's plenty of times where prediction is completely meaningless simply because of the general frailty of OU pokemon. Abusing broad scale attacks with few resists(Ice and Electric being the old standby) and high attack power on pokemon with the power to back them can often leave you in a situation where you win simply by being able to do more damage than your opponent can actively withstand, even if your moves are as predictable as the sun setting.

To expand on that as well as i can, because OU lacks pokemon who's base stats are all 100+ like in Ubers, rarely can pokemon other than those that are specifically placed on a team to absorb hits take an unresisted hit from something with a 120+ attacking stat more than once. To give an example, if you build a team with the mindset of "Win through Offense" rather than "Win Through Defense" and dont use either Rotom or Flygon, you've nothing on your team that can actively switch into something like an offensive Zapdos, especially if the ever common Stealth Rocks is up. This is why prediction takes a backseat in OU and why late game sweepers exist. Rather than attempting to win via prediction you can simply force a win condition by dealing enough damage with your other pokemon, eliminating the ground type/only good resist and then simply going straight to the pokemon that can oneshot anything thats at around 50-60% on your opponents team.
I want to play ubers now.
 
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