This is my probably overly complex theory on how to choose a counterpick stage, not just based on the opponent's character, but their experience, your own experience and Lucas's own strengths and weaknesses.
The factors you should consider in choosing a counterpick are as follows and in order of importance,
1. How well do I know the stage?
2. What factors of the stage can I exploit to help my character?
3. What factors of the stage can my opponent exploit to help his character?
4. How well does my opponent know the stage?
1. How well do I know the stage?
Just because people say a stage is a good counterpick for your character doesn't mean it will be for you. If you rarely play on a stage, don't assume it will work for you. In order for a stage to be a good counterpick for you, you have to know what you're doing. More importantly, you have to have a better understanding of what you're doing than the opponent does. If you don't, you may find yourself losing stocks pointlessly to suicides and/or giving your opponent an unnecesary advantage. If you can't find a counterpick that you are truly comfortable with, you are much better off sticking with a neutral stage that you've played a lot on and will feel confident on. This will give you more of a psychological advantage as well. The last thing you want to be in a competitive environment is uncomfortable. This is the most important thing to consider when you are choosing a counterpick stage in a tournament or money match.
2. What factors of the stage can I exploit to help my character?
I'll talk about just Lucas for this section. The things that tend to help Lucas the most in counterpick stages are,
1. Additional recovery options
2. Destructible terrain
3. Close blastzones
4. Spacing
1. Lucas has a very gimpable recovery, so any additional options will help you out a lot. This includes platfroms near the edge for PKT2 lag cancels such as on Brinstar, multiple ledges such as on Norfair, and fall through terrain that you can shoot through with PKT2 such as on Halberd. These will all aid you in making it back to the stage without getting punished and should definetly be considered when choosing a CP. Some of the best stages for Lucas's recovery are,
Brinstar
Norfair
Delfino
Smashville
Pirate Ship
Rainbow Cruise
2. Destructible terrain can be a great help because it makes Lucas's Usmash and Dsmash last forever which is great for punishing overly aggressive players and even pressuring on some stages. It also makes PKT2 last longer which may help you recover safer. Keep in mind however that these will slow down your Nair which can make you extremely vulnerable. Also keep in mind that some characters have more to gain from this than you do. Destructible terrain is most useful on,
Brinstar
Luigi's Mansion
Castle Siege
Green Greens
Sky World
3. Lucas is very adept at killing at low percentages when there are close blastzones. This is because Nair has decent knockback even at very low percentages and changes relatively little with percentage differentiation. His strong smash attacks help with this as well. Stages with close blastzones which can help you a lot include,
Brinstar
Corneria
Yoshi's Island (Melee)
Rainbow Cruise
Onett
Green Greens
4. Some stages just space well for Lucas. This includes being able to slide on sloped terrain as well as simply the distance of the platforms from the ground. For instance, Lucas can full hop and will immediately land on Smashville's platform rather than jumping over it and having to fall onto it. I call this a perfect landing and it can speed up your game a lot. This also includes stages that work well with thundersliding and PK Fire. Stages with generally good spacing for Lucas include,
Brinstar
Battlefield
Smashville
Yoshi's Island (Brawl)
Final Destination
Norfair
Pokemon Stadium 1
Pictochat
Halberd
Frigate Orpheon
Luigi's Mansion
What factors of the stage can my opponent exploit to help his character?
You need to know your matchups plain and simple. Game and Watch can take great advantage of Luigi's Mansion because of the destructible terrain and spacing. Dedede, ROB, Fox and several others have infinites against walls such as that on Corneria. Metaknight can use the numerous ledges on Norfair to move quickly and safely around the stage, putting you in harm's way in the process. You have to know what characters like which stages.
How well does my opponent know this stage?
Some counterpicks are often chosen and players tend to have a lot of experience on them. Others are very rarely chosen, most often for annoying elements in them. If you know a stage better than your opponent, you will naturally have the upper hand psychologically if nothing else. This is a great reason for learning some of the lesser used and less liked stages such as Brinstar, Distant Planet, Pokemon Stadium 2, Pictochat etc. You never know when you might need them to counterpick or even when you might get counterpicked with them.
Now with all this said and done, there are a few counterpick stages that I believe to be extremely beneficial for Lucas over others. I will not include neutrals in this list since they're pretty much good for everyone.
Brinstar - Brinstar is amazing for Lucas. Easier recovery, close blastzones, great for spacing with perfect landings on both side platforms as well as an easy thunderslide edgecancel from the top platfrom to the left platform, destructible terrain to help PKT2 as well as Usmash and Dsmash and PK Fire, and almost most importantly, almost no one knows how to play on it. Destructible terrain in the center can cause SD's on Game and Watch if he Dairs into it and Metaknight if he tornados through it.
Norfair - Norfair is good for Lucas because it encourages aerial combat in which Lucas can easily get above the opponent. Great for Dairs and PK Fire. Multiple recovery spots. Don't CP Norfair against Metaknight or Snake EVER.
Corneria - You can heal yourself on lasers and easily make it back to the stage. Also blastzones are very close for very easy kills. Just don't get caught in an infinite against the well. Dsmash on the top of the fin gets kills too easily. PKT1 spamming works.
Luigi's Mansion - Destructible terrain is great. Recovering can be tricky for you. NEVER CP Luigi's Mansion against Game and Watch or Metaknight.
Pirate Ship - Really quirky stage. The bombs will kill you stupidly early so be careful. Don't get caught in the water and get spiked. Spam PKT1 for edgeguarding when they're in the water and ledgewhip on the left side especially. Easy to recover on as long as you don't get spiked.
Green Greens - If it's not banned this stage can be good. Thundersliding is great here. Dsmashes can last long, just don't blow yourself up. Anyone can die off the sides at stupidly low percentage so make use of your Nair.
Yoshi's Island (Melee) - Another stage you can get really early kills on. Just watch out for the chaingrab walk off on the right. Dsmash on the left side will get easy kills. You can cancel your smash attacks on the destructible blocks for flash and safe Usmashes.
Those are just some of my personal favourites. Remember the most important factor in choosing your counterpick. CHOOSE THE STAGE THAT YOU ARE MOST COMFORTABLE WITH. Mess around. Play friendlies only on CP's. It's fun. It'll get you used to stages you might not normally ever play on.
The factors you should consider in choosing a counterpick are as follows and in order of importance,
1. How well do I know the stage?
2. What factors of the stage can I exploit to help my character?
3. What factors of the stage can my opponent exploit to help his character?
4. How well does my opponent know the stage?
1. How well do I know the stage?
Just because people say a stage is a good counterpick for your character doesn't mean it will be for you. If you rarely play on a stage, don't assume it will work for you. In order for a stage to be a good counterpick for you, you have to know what you're doing. More importantly, you have to have a better understanding of what you're doing than the opponent does. If you don't, you may find yourself losing stocks pointlessly to suicides and/or giving your opponent an unnecesary advantage. If you can't find a counterpick that you are truly comfortable with, you are much better off sticking with a neutral stage that you've played a lot on and will feel confident on. This will give you more of a psychological advantage as well. The last thing you want to be in a competitive environment is uncomfortable. This is the most important thing to consider when you are choosing a counterpick stage in a tournament or money match.
2. What factors of the stage can I exploit to help my character?
I'll talk about just Lucas for this section. The things that tend to help Lucas the most in counterpick stages are,
1. Additional recovery options
2. Destructible terrain
3. Close blastzones
4. Spacing
1. Lucas has a very gimpable recovery, so any additional options will help you out a lot. This includes platfroms near the edge for PKT2 lag cancels such as on Brinstar, multiple ledges such as on Norfair, and fall through terrain that you can shoot through with PKT2 such as on Halberd. These will all aid you in making it back to the stage without getting punished and should definetly be considered when choosing a CP. Some of the best stages for Lucas's recovery are,
Brinstar
Norfair
Delfino
Smashville
Pirate Ship
Rainbow Cruise
2. Destructible terrain can be a great help because it makes Lucas's Usmash and Dsmash last forever which is great for punishing overly aggressive players and even pressuring on some stages. It also makes PKT2 last longer which may help you recover safer. Keep in mind however that these will slow down your Nair which can make you extremely vulnerable. Also keep in mind that some characters have more to gain from this than you do. Destructible terrain is most useful on,
Brinstar
Luigi's Mansion
Castle Siege
Green Greens
Sky World
3. Lucas is very adept at killing at low percentages when there are close blastzones. This is because Nair has decent knockback even at very low percentages and changes relatively little with percentage differentiation. His strong smash attacks help with this as well. Stages with close blastzones which can help you a lot include,
Brinstar
Corneria
Yoshi's Island (Melee)
Rainbow Cruise
Onett
Green Greens
4. Some stages just space well for Lucas. This includes being able to slide on sloped terrain as well as simply the distance of the platforms from the ground. For instance, Lucas can full hop and will immediately land on Smashville's platform rather than jumping over it and having to fall onto it. I call this a perfect landing and it can speed up your game a lot. This also includes stages that work well with thundersliding and PK Fire. Stages with generally good spacing for Lucas include,
Brinstar
Battlefield
Smashville
Yoshi's Island (Brawl)
Final Destination
Norfair
Pokemon Stadium 1
Pictochat
Halberd
Frigate Orpheon
Luigi's Mansion
What factors of the stage can my opponent exploit to help his character?
You need to know your matchups plain and simple. Game and Watch can take great advantage of Luigi's Mansion because of the destructible terrain and spacing. Dedede, ROB, Fox and several others have infinites against walls such as that on Corneria. Metaknight can use the numerous ledges on Norfair to move quickly and safely around the stage, putting you in harm's way in the process. You have to know what characters like which stages.
How well does my opponent know this stage?
Some counterpicks are often chosen and players tend to have a lot of experience on them. Others are very rarely chosen, most often for annoying elements in them. If you know a stage better than your opponent, you will naturally have the upper hand psychologically if nothing else. This is a great reason for learning some of the lesser used and less liked stages such as Brinstar, Distant Planet, Pokemon Stadium 2, Pictochat etc. You never know when you might need them to counterpick or even when you might get counterpicked with them.
Now with all this said and done, there are a few counterpick stages that I believe to be extremely beneficial for Lucas over others. I will not include neutrals in this list since they're pretty much good for everyone.
Brinstar - Brinstar is amazing for Lucas. Easier recovery, close blastzones, great for spacing with perfect landings on both side platforms as well as an easy thunderslide edgecancel from the top platfrom to the left platform, destructible terrain to help PKT2 as well as Usmash and Dsmash and PK Fire, and almost most importantly, almost no one knows how to play on it. Destructible terrain in the center can cause SD's on Game and Watch if he Dairs into it and Metaknight if he tornados through it.
Norfair - Norfair is good for Lucas because it encourages aerial combat in which Lucas can easily get above the opponent. Great for Dairs and PK Fire. Multiple recovery spots. Don't CP Norfair against Metaknight or Snake EVER.
Corneria - You can heal yourself on lasers and easily make it back to the stage. Also blastzones are very close for very easy kills. Just don't get caught in an infinite against the well. Dsmash on the top of the fin gets kills too easily. PKT1 spamming works.
Luigi's Mansion - Destructible terrain is great. Recovering can be tricky for you. NEVER CP Luigi's Mansion against Game and Watch or Metaknight.
Pirate Ship - Really quirky stage. The bombs will kill you stupidly early so be careful. Don't get caught in the water and get spiked. Spam PKT1 for edgeguarding when they're in the water and ledgewhip on the left side especially. Easy to recover on as long as you don't get spiked.
Green Greens - If it's not banned this stage can be good. Thundersliding is great here. Dsmashes can last long, just don't blow yourself up. Anyone can die off the sides at stupidly low percentage so make use of your Nair.
Yoshi's Island (Melee) - Another stage you can get really early kills on. Just watch out for the chaingrab walk off on the right. Dsmash on the left side will get easy kills. You can cancel your smash attacks on the destructible blocks for flash and safe Usmashes.
Those are just some of my personal favourites. Remember the most important factor in choosing your counterpick. CHOOSE THE STAGE THAT YOU ARE MOST COMFORTABLE WITH. Mess around. Play friendlies only on CP's. It's fun. It'll get you used to stages you might not normally ever play on.
