Chances of 9 in Extreme Judge

[Cenizas]

As unsure as this custom move seems, I thought it would be a good idea to run some tests and clarify the chances of drawing 1 or 9. I measured this by:

• 5 sets of 100 swings of Extreme Judge
• A set is defined by each refresh of a match in training mode.
• Each swing was tallied up under the number drawn.
• Mr. Game and Watch's percentage was recorded as well to verify the number of times 1 was drawn.

Set 1: "1" was drawn 76 times, "9" was drawn 24 times. G&W has taken 380%.
Set 2: "1" was drawn 75 times, "9" was drawn 25 times. G&W has taken 375%.
Set 3: "1" was drawn 84 times, "9" was drawn 16 times. G&W has taken 420%.
Set 4: "1" was drawn 81 times, "9" was drawn 19 times. G&W has taken 405%.
Set 5: "1" was drawn 84 times, "9" was drawn 16 times. G&W has taken 420%.

By averaging the number of times 9 was drawn, you get 20. Therefore, the chance of drawing 9 with Extreme Judge is about one fifth up from one ninth in other variations. I am by no means a statistics wizard, so any better conclusions others can make is absolutely welcome.

 

[TheMiSP]

Not so much of a productive comment, but that seems fairly accurate imo.

I believe it's about 1/5, maybe 1/4, but some have said even 1/8. Anything can be right.

At least now almost everyone will know it's certainly not 1/2, and I liked your testing btw.

 

[SeanS]

I have done tests personally with 1000 hammers of each custom for a guide I'm working on, and it is indeed ~20% of gaining a 9 in this case. This is good verification. Thanks.

Ultimately it's a bad custom, because the average damage you get for using it compared to regular judge is about two and a half times what you normally get despite the decreased damage per each 1 obtained. Chain Judge, which does no damage to you, has lingering hitboxes, and has probability more preferable for a consistent playstyle, is the best choice.

 

[A2ZOMG]

Extreme Judge is underrated for one reason. Getting a 1 is actually safe on hit. Overall though, I definitely wouldn't use it over Chain Judge in most cases.

 

[GingyCTMF]

This thread is beautiful. Good work OP

I have done tests personally with 1000 hammers of each custom for a guide I'm working on, and it is indeed ~20% of gaining a 9 in this case. This is good verification. Thanks.

Ultimately it's a bad custom, because the average damage you get for using it compared to regular judge is about two and a half times what you normally get despite the decreased damage per each 1 obtained. Chain Judge, which does no damage to you, has lingering hitboxes, and has probability more preferable for a consistent playstyle, is the best choice.

But since 1 has knockback, it makes punishment a lot less likely. That means that you have to factor in the chance of getting hit because of a 1 from chain judge, whereas a 1 with extreme judge is less likely to put you in that situation. Also lingering hitboxes can be a double-edged sword.

Extreme Judge is underrated for one reason. Getting a 1 is actually safe on hit. Overall though, I definitely wouldn't use it over Chain Judge in most cases.

but yeah, chain judge does 14% average, normal judge 11% and extreme judge 8.6% (going by your stats), so if judge is a move you use for damage/spacing, chain judge is a lot better, but if you rely on it for early kills, extreme judge is twice as likely to do that for you and at least a bit less punishable on 1 hit.

But i think we agree that both of them are better than default Judgement.

 

[Mr. Odd]

I actually cannot stand extreme judge. I have not tested chain judge thoroughly, but right now, default judge is best judge in my opinion.

 

[JohnnyB]

I think extreme judge is pretty good but on average you have to cause 20% damage to yourself to get a 9. I'm not 100% sure but i think you can get 2 guranteed dthrow > sideb followups that they can't di out of at all per a stock (assuming you can get the grabs and also assuming that you are using attacks other than grabs). That gives you one stock in a 2 stock best 2 out of 3 set for 30% assuming you aren't (un)lucky. It might be worth it against someone like lucario that you want to ko as fast as possible or really heavy characters but in most cases i think chain judge is the better for the extra damage and less repercussions to yourself.